Is genie back in bottle?

Euphoria over lapping Nitish Kumar in the saffron camp has a subtle hint of faultline in the great Narendra Modi script.

THE BJP chief Amit Shah idolizes India's greatest political strategist Chanakya and Hindu revivalist Veer Savarkar. Chanakya believed in a strong and rigorously trained army to expand frontiers of the kingdom and also to ward off foes. Savarkar envisioned homogenous Hindu society, and mostly undertook covert operations in pursuit of his goals. Shah believes that he's a blend of both the historical icons. 

Fired by his expansionist burst of adrenaline, Shah is eyeing to win Odisha and West Bengal. He even thinks that Kerala too will be in saffron kitty at not so distant time. The saffron flag is fluttering all across the North-east. Team Amit Shah is camping determined to uproot Manik Sircar government in Tripura. 

Yet, the saffron expansionist zeal was piped to give Nitish Kumar

lease of life to rule Bihar. Fresh from delivering morbid shock to rivals in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP seemingly acted as the henchmen of Bihar chief minister to help him shed the secular skins. From splashing documents of land deeds dating back to 1990s, Nitish's Sherpa and Bihar BJP's sole anchor Sushil Kumar Modi had been a man on a mission. Suddenly, he had all the revenue records to link Lalu Prasad clan in quid pro quo land deals.  One may wonder what the duo had been doing with the same set of records in their possession during NDA reign in the state during 2005-13.

Central investigating agencies, the CBI and ED, true to their wont of being more loyal than the king, hunted several locations to add thrill to the political drama. Lalu Prasad, convicted for corruption and barred from contesting election, was again certified corrupt along with all his clan members.           

Nitish Kumar and his Sherpa Sushil Kumar Modi delivered the alibi for another dramatic and thrilling swapping of places in the state politics. Kumar is a politician without a party as noted by the historian Ram Chandra Guha. And Sushil Kumar Modi has of late been a politician dumped by his party. Their umbilical cord helps both to remain relevant in the Bihar politics. 

That Nitish Kumar could have been a challenger to Narendra Modi had been proven a pipe dream in the course of political events after the 2014 verdict. That Modi with Kumar in saffron camp is running away with the 2019 poll is, thus, a convenient spin to a story palatable to the people. 

Despite being the deputy chief minister of Bihar for more than seven years, Sushil Kumar Modi had failed to win Amit Shah's approval to become chief ministerial face of the party in the 2015 state elections. Still, he slogged and logged highest number of manhours to stall the Mandal backlash. Shah, the Chankaya of BJP, schemed from the Chanakya hotel in Patna only to flounder and subsequently sink his party to the humiliating loss in the state. Only a year ago, the BJP had been unstoppable in Bihar, with the party led alliance winning 33 out of the total 40 Lok Sabha seats.

Sushil Kumar Modi had been slighted in the run up of the 2015 Bihar polls and thereafter, with team Amit Shah experimenting with new set of nondescript leaders to stage a comeback in the state. That Shah despite being on a whirlwind intensive tour of several states to deepen the foothold of the BJP failed to make his presence felt in Bihar in the last two years made it evident that he had not yet recovered from the 2015 drubbing.

With the BJP ship adrift on the high sea of Bihar, Sushil Kumar Modi had only to strike at the right time to take full control of the party in the state, and that could have been possible only if his aka, Nitish Kumar, was back on his side. 

The Bihar chief minister had teamed up with the BJP to put the genie of social justice in the bottle in 2005. Lalu Prasad, who has been the sole custodian of the politics of social justice in the state, hurtled to the wilderness in the next one decade. 

Time seemed to have been ripe for writing political obituary of the messiah of Mandal. But his nemesis only uncorked the bottle to

give him another day to live in 2013. Once out of the bottle, the king of "MY (Muslim-Yadav)" proved his mettle becoming the largest party after the 2015 verdict. Back in power with two sons -- Tej Pratap and Tejashwi Prasad, Lalu Prasad was remote controlling bureaucracy and gaining political strength each day. 

Time to put the genie back into the bottle had come again. And bottle was readied, but only the time will tell if the genie actually went inside. That saffron juggernaut prostrated before Nitish Kumar is indeed all to see at a time when Amit Shah is seen unstoppable.       

PM Nitish in 2019?

Democracy is full of second chance. 

It all began from the iconic Gandhi Maidan in Patna in October, 2013 where substantial part of the script for 2014 battle was written. In another three months, much of the script for the 2019, still four years away, will be written in Bihar. The outcome of Bihar polls due in October this year will by all accounts set course for a political process with all eyes on the month of May four years later.

Bihar will test the 32 and 68 per cent electoral debate. That Narendra Modi commanded a mere 32 per cent of the vote share in the 2014 polls offered a cocoon of political comfort to his political rivals. The natural consequence was to offer a united political alternative to the 68 per cent Modi naysayers. 

The looming electoral challenge in Bihar made the warring "socialist" satraps to bury their hatchets. They came to believe that if they did not unite they risk being annihilated sooner. The likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar, Ajit Singh and Om Prakash Choutala had seen their political herds quite overwhelmingly demolished by Modi in 2014. They came to believe that the herds were broken because they were fragmented.

The political balloon of Janata Parivar taking a shape is contingent on the outcomes of Bihar polls. If its proponents succeed in Bihar in stopping Modi, it will take wings to fly on the national horizon. If it fails, it will not wither away but jolt the skeptics in the ranks to push their personal ego little back in their calculations. And efforts with full hearts unlike currently when they have pushed Nitish to fight a lonely battle against Modi will be made.

History is not on the side of Modi, for no reformist government has ever been re-elected in the country. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had the candour to advance the elections on the back of eight plus growth rate, yet Congress humbled him. India's economic reform template historically has left millions of poor in the country out of place in the shining moon. That the Maoists registered exponential growth during the times of PV Narsimha Rao and Vajpayee has well been statistically documented to warrant any further repetition.

The anti-Modi political space is currently rudderless and leaderless. They can not tolerate the idea of some one from their ranks emerging their leader. That has been the story so far, but the future is not necessarily hostage to history. And the time is ripe for one of them to sparkle the national political space. 

Among plethora of regional satraps, only Nitish and Akhilesh Yadav stand any chance to play a larger political role at the national level. Akhilesh is still a student of politics and learning the tricks of governance with much strain. But he's just about 40 years of age and has quite a long rope to swing in Indian politics. His father -- Mulayam Singh Yadav -- is in the winter of his career. In the immediate future, Akhilesh may have to cope with a lot of fratricidal war within the extended Mulayam clan to consolidate his political clout.

Nitish has been a turnaround chief minister of Bihar for a decade. His rivals have quite good reasons to call him a political opportunist, for he sheltered in the bosom of one whom he ridiculed during most part of his days in power. Yet, politics is not an abode of permanent friends and enemies; all are circumstantial. Regional satraps know in their hearts that Nitish only has stature among them to challenge the Modi hegemony.   

If he wins Bihar elections, Nitish will emerge a counterfoil of Modi immediately. If he goes down fighting, Nitish will still be in the reckoning. Bihar will have another chance to leave its mark on national political discourse and, hence, the October polls have significance much larger to its local issues. 

                                                               *****

READ MORE on possible political script of India after the Bihar elections in the Book:

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Breaking stereotypes

A year has passed by since Narendra Modi commanded historic majority to come to power in New Delhi. In the year gone, he took ‘baby steps’ to translate his dreams and promises to people to transform India – socially and economically.  

His economic template is no more different than what Manmohan Singh and his man – P Chidambaram – had pursued. In two full Budgets that his government has presented so far, Modi has not yet unveiled a single step, which could bring in fundamental change to the fate of the country. At best he has been an undisputed king of marketing and sales to re-package schemes and policies pursued by his immediate predecessor to give them the energy and direction which they had lacked.

The book is titled – The enabler Narendra Modi. The reason for such a title is that Modi has given sufficient hints in his one year in office that he is no admirer of India being a welfare state. He has sought to nudge India onto an enabling path. For decades, India stood firm as a welfare state and billions of dollars were poured in hundred of welfare schemes. 

But India’s welfare template suffered from innumerable holes, which defeated the very idea of such schemes, as a class pocketed the wealth meant for the poor of the country. Modi believes as seen in his actions that people need to stand on their feet and they should be provided with enabling platform to transform their lives socially and economically.

Available at Amazaon.in

In the chapter, Herd Breaker, this book reminds the ruling party led by Modi of reasons why the people broke free of several political stereotypes to give a mandate not seen for two and a half decades. Millions of people living on the margins defied the caste identities to back the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Such people are dreamy and have a habit not to give long rope to the ruling party to fulfill the promises. Modi has unveiled a few of the steps to address to the aspiration of such people, but they seem too futuristic to give immediate tangible benefits to his admirers on the ground.

This book also has a chapter, New Delhi Caucus, wherein Modi’s most difficult challenge is listed and detailed. India is a vast country but irony of the country has been the clout of the ‘New Delhi Caucus’ consisting of bureaucrats, political class, middle men, civil society and judicial activists, which has subverted dreams of teeming millions. Modi has steadfastly gone after the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) since assuming office and has also sought to correct the ways the judiciary functions in the country. But he has not weeded out the ‘New Delhi Caucus’ completely, which risks his government becoming no different than his predecessors. 

Political opponents of Modi privately admit that he is perched as emperor of Indian democracy. They argue that by all accounts, Modi has surpassed the stature of Indira Gandhi of 1971 when she was India's most powerful leader and had unveiled a single party rule in the country. Modi's position is both ominous and providential. His position could be ominous, because he may throttle dissent and cause serious damage to Indian democracy. At the same time it could also be providential, because he can guide India onto a new path and liberate shackled potential of the country.

Politically speaking Modi is India's first non-Congress Prime Minister. It may sound odd, because there were seven Prime Ministers, who headed non-Congress governments. Even Atal Bihari Vajpayee of BJP was Prime Minister for about six years. Yet, Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister in the true sense.

It must be noted that Congress in India is not just a political party, but a political culture. And that culture was seeded deep into Indian democracy by Indira Gandhi. Her stature was such in her prime time that she ensured Constitution Amendment (42nd) to give India the character of a welfare state. All her successors bore her imprints in their statecraft afterwards.

Even while PV Narsimha Rao ably assisted by his Finance Minister Manmohan Singh sought to force open the window to the world, which was further carried forward by Vajpayee, they could not lay their hands on a formidable electoral template. Both were consequently rejected by the people. They suffered from economic contradictions. They wanted to write new chapters in Indian economy and polity yet could not shun ideological imprints of Indira Gandhi fully.  

Rao was a Congress man, but had vision to think beyond the Nehru-Gandhi bank of party ideas. Vajpayee was an RSS man, but had co-opted socialists, who were non-Congressmen for just namesake. Vajpayee was a minister in the Morarji Desai Cabinet. The old man was a hardcore Congress man and rival of Indira Gandhi in her early political days. Vajpayee propped up VP Singh as Prime Minister also with the support of the Left parties. VP Singh had spent his life in Congress and had quit the party to head Janata Dal, which was essentially a loose confederation of provincial caste chieftains. Vajpayee in his thoughts was centrist, with little leaning to the right. 

It's pertinent to examine why Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister in the true sense. And for that matter it will equally be important to understand what Congress means as a political culture. Congress essentially is a political culture wherein the power of decision making is centralized. Popularly it is called a 'High Command' culture. This bears strong imprints in the statecraft. Even though India is a Union of states, with much thrust on federalism, Indian statecraft essentially is of centralized planning and decision making. The Centre decides what the states should do. The Centre decides how much money states should spend and under what heads. The Centre decides what laws states should have. 

The easiest illustration of this is in Indian Parliament enacting a law on acquisition of land in 2013, which was actually a political legislation thrust upon the government due to Rahul Gandhi's obsession to do politics of land. Land is a state subject, and all state governments have their own respective policies or laws on acquisition of land. Then what was the need for the Centre to enact a law on land and whose amendments Modi is desperately seeking? Modi believes it has forced a lock-down on development. 

If not for Rahul Gandhi ambushing Bhatta-Parsaul to throw his weight behind relatively rich farmers of western Uttar Pradesh, India may have continued with the British time law on acquisition of land. The basic idea is that the Centre essentially lacks trust in state governments to be fair in dealing with its people. And that must sound ludicrous, because the state governments have more connect with the people than the Centre. 

Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister, because he has not been touched by the ideology and culture of the grand old party. He was chief minister of Gujarat for about 12 years with strong majority in the state Assembly and he never needed to bend even little to allow Congress to cast its imprints on him.

This culture essentially is distribution of wealth, centralization of decision making, and sycophancy. Through the welfare core of the statecraft, Congress envisaged distribution of wealth among the poor directly. This subsequently birthed politics of poverty. This book has a chapter on ‘Politics of poverty’ wherein it has been socially, economically and politically mapped for its extent of distortions. This had the collateral damage to Indian ethos in the form of rampant corruption, which spread its tentacles in all walks of lives. 

The mode to distribute wealth to the poor fell prey to the cunning crop of teeming millions who had connections everywhere to pocket at least half the money transferred by the Centre. They infected the political class, judiciary, police, and civil society with their vice. And they gave birth to a corrupt society.

Vajpayee should not be counted among the non-Congress Prime Ministers purely for the reasons because he was clueless to clamp down on corruption and the Congress' statecraft on centralization of decision making exercise. Other six Prime Ministers -- Desai, Charan Singh, VP Singh, Chandrashekhar, HDS Deve Gowda, and IK Gujral -- were either from the Congress having crossed over to other parties in search for greener pastures or were propped up to the post as part of the trick game of the grand old party, which included Choudhary Charan Singh and Chandrashekhar. 

In the chapter, Modi’s 3B, this book graphically captures Prime Minister’s ‘Bold, Brazen, and Bulldozer’ aspect of administration. Modi in a few months after his inauguration shut down the Planning Commission, which by default had subverted the idea of India being a federal democracy. All chief ministers as a matter of routine would line up each year to get their annual plans approved by the Planning Commission. Modi has in place inaugurated NITI Aayog wherein the chief ministers head sub-groups on various subjects.

But most importantly Modi assured from the ramparts of the Red Fort, that he would 'neither take bribe nor allow others to do the same (naa khaaoonga, naa khane doonga)'. No Prime Minister before him acknowledged the cancer of corruption and owned up responsibility to crush it down. A year has passed by since the inauguration of Modi and the economy has resumed its journey on the upward trajectory, but the real-estate prices in Delhi and satellite towns around have slumped by at least 20 per cent. The real-estate in Delhi zone thrived because the black money was in ample supply. The tap appears to have been turned off and there is tangible effect on the grounds. 

Rao and Vajpayee surely put India on high economic growth path. But their times also saw India coming under the firm grip of Maoists. The Red Corridor dotted India right from the border with Nepal to deep forests of Chhatisgarh. The Government of India officially admits 80 districts in the country being in strong grip of Maoists. The Left Wing Extremism spread its influence among poor tribal and Dalit. They gained followers and sympathizers, because poor stayed on margins of the society and the economic growth, which surpassed nine per cent mark in Vajpayee's time, had no effect on their lives. They could not access those benefits on which the Central government spent billions of dollars each year.

In Modi, they sensed a rare opportunity to make an electoral choice to break free from shackles of self-limiting social and economic conditions. Modi is now an emperor of Indian democracy, because he broke the caste and community herds, who by habit and conditioning participated in elections in stereotyped manners. Modi broke many stereotypes and he has to consolidate and further cement his political path.

There is a clear merit in Modi being compared with Indira Gandhi. They share similar political clouts, but differ significantly in their socio-economic outlooks. In the chapter, ‘Politics of poverty’, this book has sought to put the statecraft of Indira Gandhi and her successors in perspective.

... (Read more in the book The enabler Narendra Modi)

Five percent politician

NOT many months ago, a chief minister snubbed his senior ministerial colleague in a Cabinet meeting in such a manner that tears rolled out in torrents from the swollen eyes of the poor soul. In politics, tables turn often, and, fortune too.

The tearful man, that day, is now chief minister of Bihar -- Jitan Ram Manjhi -- and his tormentor then was an aspiring Prime Minister, until May this year -- Nitish Kumar. And after the turning of the wheel, Manjhi is paying back in kind for what all he got for over a decade from his political master.

Just another day, Nitish Kumar showed up in New Delhi in the august company of Shivpal Singh Yadav, who has many identities besides that of a brother of Mulayam Singh Yadav and senior minister in Akhilesh Yadav Cabinet, but his fame is for his being a popular political "goonda" of Uttar Pradesh. Also giving him the company was Prem Chand Gupta, the man-friday of Lalu Prasad and not known for great virtues. 

A few weeks back Nitish Kumar showed up at a rally of Jat leader Ajit Singh in western UP for political unity of parties smashed by the Narendra Modi wave. That commitment for political unity lasted only a few days, as Mulayam Singh Yadav found no space at his home for the Jat leader. That should sufficiently speak of the political convictions of Nitish Kumar and his restlessness to leapfrog to the national limelight again.

A month after the May verdict on Lok Sabha elections, a mentor and man instrumental in propping up Nitish Kumar as CM of Bihar had this to say: "It was his personal ambition that Nitish helped Narendra Modi's cause in becoming BJP's PM candidate. If we -- JD (U) -- had not snapped ties with the BJP, Modi may not have bulldozed through his party to become the PM candidate. We were a bone stuck in BJP's throat and snapping ties with the party we ourselves helped Modi. It was not ideology but a personal decision to break away from the BJP."

DID Nitish Kumar really believe he could have been a PM candidate? The media is conditioned to patterns, and most believed people can not give majority to a party at the Centre, that too to the BJP. And they drummed up the Nitish Kumar card since 2012 as the acceptable face for the PM post. "Yes, he not only believed, but had started living the dream. And a number of BJP leaders had helped him believe this dream," the mentor-turned-senior leader of the JD (U) told this blogger.  

Nitish Kumar not only lived the dream, but turned destructive to nurse his personal enmity with Narendra Modi. And, he continues to find ways and means to gather the strength to challenge his political turned personal enemy -- Narendra Modi.

"Nitish Kumar never forgives any and can wait for years to take revenge," Sabir Ali, once a close confidante of Nitish Kumar and former Rajya Sabha MP said when asked to spell out five negative features of former Bihar chief minister. His personal ego overwhelms other issues and carries arrogance in party and administrative works, said Ali, while listing the negatives.

On the positive, of course, Ali credits Nitish Kumar to be a pleasant person for whom smile comes naturally. "He told me once that even if a CIA agent spends whole day with him, he would fail to take out any secret," Ali quoted Nitish Kumar having told him about his art of keeping secrets. 

And for that matter, Lalu Prasad never tired of saying for over a decade that "while all have teeth in their mouths, Nitish Kumar had them in his stomach". Lalu Prasad's description was not for Nitish Kumar's art of keeping secrets, but for his guile. But enemy of an enemy is a friend in politics, and both are now family. That bonding obviously has happened after politics took a turn hostile to their brand of politics.

THOSE who have seen Nitish Kumar from close quarters also state that he is a man of few friends. And that cripples his worldview. For that matter, his eyes and ears were two persons for at least a year running into the May Lok Sabha elections -- Pawan Kumar Verma, an unlikely person from the background of Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) and a prominent journalist, who wears and smokes socialism to an extent that the changing wind easily gives him a slip. 

These two made Nitish Kumar believe that the Narendra Modi wave was all about the one pumped through a "blower". And people heard him his denial of changing winds in politics. He had been blinded by the blindness of his two friends. Such blindness is attitudinal for which, sadly, there is hardly any cure.  

Whenever a political biography of Nitish Kumar is written, an apt title for it could be "A political gambler". His belief in politics of arithmetic is religious. And he believed that the combo of Backward-Dalit-Muslims is too tall a wall for any to climb. That Modi not only climbed but smashed it has been spoken and commented enough for any repetition. Religious belief lasts long and still beholds Nitish Kumar.

                                                                                                                                                            

And, hence, he propped Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit, to win back the community, which to his shock, had deserted for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. But the gamble seems to be going haywire. Manjhi soon realized that he had had enough of his master and began shrugging off his shadow. That Bihar is hostage in recent times of drama enacted each day by Manjhi is part of the larger political design. The gap between the pawn (Manjhi) and his master had been so wide in recent days that Sharad Yadav had to dash recently to Patna to build bridges. 

Nitish Kumar is restless to carve out a role for himself in national politics. So, he was in the company of Mulayam Yadav, Lalu Prasad, H D Deve Gowda, Dushyant Choutala and others. 

Chirag Paswan, son of Ram Vilas Paswan and Lok Sabha MP, would largely be considered a political novice. But his take on Nitish Kumar's efforts to reunite the old Janta Dal to counter Narendra Modi is worth taking note of. "All of them have been tigers of their respective territories. If they all come in one cage, the fate of the cage could well be imagined," junior Paswan told this blogger.   

For the moment, tigers invite only skepticism, because two plus two is not necessarily four in politics and that too in India.    

Eastern approaches

THE western disturbance has blown over north and west parts of India with all its might, plucking electoral fruits in loads. The gust seemingly growing in strength is now seeking eastern approaches. 

Now that the dust is settling on the battleground in western and northern parts of India, moves have begun for the next electoral war zone, that will be played out in Bihar and West Bengal. That the battle would be fierce and bitter is a foregone conclusion. Because the political generals in the eastern battlefield have already begun their acts of fortification to block the western gust.

In 2011, a temperamental street fighter -- Mamata Banerjee -- uprooted the Left regime in West Bengal, which then seemed to have had millions of roots in nooks and corners of the state, and, hardly any one dared to think that such a gigantic tree could be cut to pieces in such a manner that it would wither away in quick time.

But a street fighter hardly thinks beyond its immediate foe. And sometimes the foe even when vanquished lives through its slayer. That the spirit of the Left rule got another lease of life to survive in West Bengal through Banerjee has been the story of the state for the last three years. 

And, thus, even though the CPI (M) and its multi-headed Left may be terminally ill and counting days to irrelevance, its reincarnation had been immediate and swift through the Trinamool Congress. So, Poribartan (change) was a mere slogan.

Protest in Burdwan.

The extent of Saradha Chit Fund scam is only unfolding and has apparently robbed Mamata Banerjee of her famed clean image. Her obsession to herd the Muslim vote bank has unnerved even her ardent supporters. The Burdwan blast at a premise being used by terrorists has shaken the belief of a lot of people. And, the subsequent political campaign with the apparent blessing of Mamata Banerjee to pitch the Muslims and NIA against each other appears to be the turning point in the politics of the state.

THAT West Bengal is turning into Uttar Pradesh is the clear writing on the wall. Since 2012, Uttar Pradesh under Samajwadi Party government saw a brazen "Muslim flexing muscle" political phase spearheaded by senior minister and till 2014 (May) close confidante of Mulayam Singh Yadav -- Azam Khan. And in a span of two years UP reported incidences of over 300 communal riots. 

Azam Khan with blessing of Mulayam Singh Yadav attempted to polarise Muslims in UP. But he and his aka realised to their horror that the BJP set in a reverse polarisation, which they had not thought in their wildest of the dream. By the time Mulayam Singh Yadav dumped Azam Khan, his party was decimated. 

Mamata Banerjee idolized her foe (Left) for its political longevity and stability. She knew that she could emulate the Left only if she herded Muslims, who roughly account for about 30 per cent of the state's population.  If she succeeds in her herding game, she would not need the Congress. And for three years, the Poribartan had been about herding Muslims. The extent and brazenness of this exercise does not have a parallel even in the usual suspect UP.

For about three years, she and her confidante Mukul Roy were the politburo of her party. In May this year, the BJP woke her up from deep sleep by bagging two Lok Sabha seats. The gentle wake up call turned into horror, after the BJP won a byelection for state Assembly. The horror  now threatens to turn into a nightmare. Because, the western gust is not just at her doorstep, but sweeping through her state in a gentle wind, with promises to gain more strength.

Realizing she is in a spot, Mamata Banerjee made Mulul Roy at whose residence she loved to play piano for hours a scapegoat and dumped him. Her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, an MP, is now in the forefront of her party, with insiders sensing birth of another political dynasty. And all those who were keeping distance from her due to Mukul Roy is now enjoying pleasant bout of mood swing of Mamata Banerjee. 

But two years may not be enough to undo a course which ran for three years. For those three years have ended the political monopoly. 

NITISH Kumar trusted his Mahadalit constituency. He believed that Mahadalits and Muslims would ensure his further run in Bihar politics. The May verdict proved, he was wrong. That he did not sense the changing wind was for his two ears being hostage to Pawan Verma and a Delhi based journalist. He sensed too late, that he had lent his ears to those who had no ear to ground. 

He thought, he could survive in Bihar if he could hide behind a political shikhandi and he found one in Jitan Ram

Teachers lathicharhed in Patna

Manjhi, a Mahadalit. Nitish Kumar may have bought a few more days to discover strategy to save his political clout, but his decision to prop up Manjhi pushed Bihar into greater disarray. 

The political caste is changing and is no more herding. And, it has been none other than Dalits, who bolted first. They reason, that they had been electing people from their caste for decades, but barring community pride no other tangible benefit came their ways. And, hence, they voted for the BJP in UP and Bihar in sizable numbers. Therefore, Jitan Ram Manjhi may turn out to be an effective political shikhandi but may not stop the inevitable.

Bihar and West Bengal now host the Great Game of Indian politics.

A mighty slump

That pampered lots are supremely blessed with power to self-destruct is surely a hard truth of life. Such individuals leave stories largely unheard, but those in public life leave telling tales to be told and re-told. 

And Nitish Kumar, a Prime Ministerial candidate till not long ago, has been such a masterly phenomenon of political rise and fall, that Shakespeare might have found in him a tragedy king. Political commentators can not deny being in love with him even if he is being denounced for his masterly swing to casteism from being a development icon.

Incidentally, RJD chief Lalu Prasad was political mentor of Nitish Kumar during the march of Mandal politics, which swept through Gangetic belt in 1990s. When Lalu Prasad had to quit as chief minister of Bihar, after being charge-sheeted in fodder scam, he thrust his illiterate wife, Rabri Devi, onto the state. 

That act of political expediency may have extended Lalu Prasad's reign in Bihar for a few more years, but a whole generation grew up with a sense of inferiority complex thereafter. The Congress president Sonia Gandhi aped Lalu Prasad in 2004 to pick Manmohan Singh, who was not an illiterate but an economist of high repute. But another generation has grown up with gloom during the last 10 years.

Political scientists may need to invent a term to explain this art of political expediency of thrusting somebody for personal exigency. Because, it's spreading like a virus, which has infected Nitish Kumar now. 

Some extraordinary commentators could go to the extent of claiming the anointing of Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit hailing from Most Backward Caste (MBC), as a political masterstroke of NItish Kumar to checkmate rise of BJP in Bihar. But that will be too shallow to last a few days in public discourse. 

Jitan Manjhi

Because, Bihar inherently has a restlessness, which may not be in other states, to turn people repugnant with the very idea of casteism imprisoning governance in the state. By the way, Manjhi's administrative skill was so well acknowledged by Nitish Kumar, that he could not find for him a better ministry than the SC&ST welfare.  

Incidentally, Nitish Kumar is not the only chief minister who faced an electoral rout in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. He is in the company of Omar Abdullah and Akhilesh Yadav. But they have reacted differently to the verdict.

In fact, Omar Abdullah is seeking to undo mistakes of his government and tweeted his e-mail id to connect with the people to learn why was he punished in such a manner. Akhilesh Yadav is seeking to shrug off the shadow of his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and assert his leadership. 

But Nitish Kumar chose to relinquish the office, while "taking moral responsibility". His party chief Sharad Yadav has not yet resigned. Arguably, it can also not be ruled out that Nitish Kumar could not digest the idea of his arch-rival Narendra Modi becoming Prime Minister.

Arguably, the fall and rise in political career of Nitish Kumar and Kahkashan Parveen seem so overlapping to

Kahkashan Parveen

ignore. Parveen, a little known woman from Bhagalpur, first became a municipal corporator a few years ago and since then she has been rising and rising only.

Nitish Kumar first appointed her chairperson of Bihar Commission of Women and a few months earlier shocked most of his party men by sending her to Rajya Sabha. Politically Nitish sought to send the message that he was reaching out to Muslims. He denied Rajya Sabha nominations to party heavyweights Shivanand Tiwari, NK Singh and Sabir Ali.

Within JD (U), leaders and party workers saw Nitish in his full arrogance bloom during Rajya Sabha nomination episode. And, politics is sadly no hunting grounds for arrogant lots. That Nitish was handed over worst electoral defeat confirm him having lost touch with ground realities.

Was not Nitish Kumar hailed a development icon till a few years ago? Did he not win best chief minister awards at the hands of TV channels? Did not the media hail him for turning around a state, which had a long spell of dark age under his predecessors -- Rabri Devi and Lalu Prasad? Did not the Planning Commission of India certify Bihar of having achieved highest State GDP growth among all states?

Questions are too many and they should baffle political commentators. Because, Indian democracy in the last two decades has come to reward good governance. And answers of these questions will reveal the narrow world view of Nitish Kumar and his aloofness.

State of roads in states generally give a good measure of the administrative skills of chief ministers. In his first term, Nitish Kumar won accolades for building good quality roads. His models of monitoring on real time basis was also replicated in other states.

Incidentally, by the time Nitish went to people for another mandate in 2010, he even claimed that any one can reach any part of the state from Patna in a flat six hours.

But claims were highly exaggerated. Incidentally, this blogger, believing Nitish's words, could reach half the distance that chief minister had stated in 12 hours time a year ago. And the ride had been so bumpy, that one would need full two days of rest to recover from agony of road journey.

Public at large blame Nitish Kumar in the state for having destroyed education in schools by using teacher recruitment to further his political interests. Law and order situation improved and later nose-dived.

"Nitish did not take drive against criminals in  the state to its logical conclusion. The man who was credited to have put an end to lawlessness during Lalu-Rabri time soon lost favour with Nitish and was transferred to police training institute. Nitish is running a bureaucratic government where dissent is not heard," said Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lallan Singh during a conversation with this blogger two years ago. At that time Lallan Singh, after being the close confidante of Nitish Kumar, was also thrown out of the inner court of former Bihar chief minister.

And clear pitfall of a bureaucratic government is wide-spread corruption. So, greasing palms of all kinds of people in government jobs, from a beat constable to a clerk to higher ups, is the story of the second tenure of Nitish Kumar.

Surrounded by sycophants in Patna and encouraged by adulation of New Delhi media, Nitish Kumar apparently thought of himself as Navin Patnaik of Odisha, that there was no alternative to him in the state.

But his belief was utterly out of place. And he chose to self-destruct by snapping 17 years alliance with the BJP. That he did because he was convinced that weakening of the Congress meant revival of the idea of Third Front, and the BJP not being a pan-India party could at best get 180 Lok Sabha seats.

And, therefore, the JD (U) had supported Pranab Mukherjee in Presidential elections even while the BJP backed Purno Sangma. "After next year's elections, there will be instability at the Centre and, hence, we need someone like Pranab Mukherjee in Rashtrapati Bhavan," JD (U) chief Sharad Yadav had explained why his party was not going along with the BJP.

The 2014 verdict shattered all hopes of instability at the Centre. Nitish Kumar misjudged people's minds. And that he did, because he was disconnected. Incidentally, he's repeating his mistake, that of thinking that key to power in Bihar is through the caste arithmetic.

Those who do not learn from their mistakes are condemned as fools of worst orders. And Nitish should know that Indian politics has left behind arithmetic and is now flying with wings of hope.

To catch this ride he needs a mighty leap of faith, but he has chosen a mighty slump instead. 

Gandhian folly to herd

History has keys to many riddles of modern times. 

But history bores most, as it has mostly been written by red-clothed men, who owe their intellectual sharpness to propaganda publications shipped from Russia and dumped in various varsities of India.

Most haunting riddle of contemporary India is its over 16 per cent population holding on to the belief that their "religion is in danger".  This danger seems perennial.

And as curtain comes down in another one week over long drawn out election campaign to elect members of the 16th Lok Sabha, there is no denying the fact that Muslims have been used as canon fireballs against BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi. Nonetheless, a tiny lot among the Muslims have bolted and become Modi supporter; but they are too few to matter at all.

Muslim boys playing cricket in Bhagalpur (Bihar)

The Likes of Mamata Banerjee, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Rahul Gandhi  and his mother Sonia Gandhi among others have tried their best to make Muslims believe that Modi would "butcher" them if he were to come to power in New Delhi. That the seemingly "massacres of Muslims will be all around" campaign slogan of non-BJP political parties surely seeks to milk "religion in danger" psyche of the minority community. 

Long into the past, it was a local battle fought and lost by Muslim Nawab of Bengal , Siraj-ud-Daulla, on June 23, 1757 at Plassey, that seeded, arguably, for the first time, "religion in danger" psyche in Muslim minds. Incidentally, Mamata Banerjee finds Mir Jafar literally on her tongue if she has to bash any political dissidence within his Trinamool Congress.       

One hundred and sixty two years later, "religion in danger" was institutionalized in Indian political discourse. And, it was none other than Mohan Das Karam Chand Gandhi, later Mahatma Gandhi, after he became an icon of India's freedom struggle, who made it happen. 

In his eagerness to win over Muslims to freedom struggle movement at a time when Sir Sayyed Ahmed had indoctrinated minority community to become pro-British to help them get government jobs, Gandhi gambled to mix religion and politics to spearhead Khilafat movement (1919-1924) for a cause, which had nothing to do with India and even Turkish Muslims thought otherwise. 

The movement flopped and Gandhi proved himself to be a political novice. Even though the red-clothed historians would see only virtue in that failed experiment, India paid heavy price in just 23 years time, as  Britain ran its surgical knife to dismember the country. What the Greats like Ashoka, Chandragupta Mourya and Akbar had passed on as legacy was squandered off by the deeds and misdeeds of awfully slow freedom movement of India and incompetence of those leading it.   

Ironically, Gandhi may not have seen far into the future to know that a few years later Pakistani Army and numerous militant organizations groomed by Rawalpindi would wreak havoc with their "religion in danger" weapon by allowing and executing massacres of people on a scale never seen in the world history. Gandhi may have just lit a flame, but Muhammed Ali Jinnah first and Gen. Zial-ul-Haque later turned that into a raging fire.

Jinnah with Gandhi

It's important to slip into history for a while, because contemporary politicians seem an ignorant lot.  By keeping alive apprehensions of riots, Muslims in India have been herded, first by Jinnah and later by all and sundry. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign, it has been made like that Narendra Modi is a "rioter par excellence". 

A year back, journalist and playwright, Tehseen Munawer, wrote an open letter to Uttar Pradesh chief minister, Akhilesh Yadav, asking if he could take his kids to his ancestral village on Eid. That he had to write the letter had to do with over 50 communal riots having taken place in Central and eastern UP by them. But that was much before the ever peaceful western UP where Jats and Muslims shared quite symbiotic relations too became hunting ground for blood thirsty men.  

And with so many riots in the past two years under the watch of a "secular" government in Lucknow, mood of Muslims was worthwhile to explore. So, off the Agra-Firozabad highway, Haji Jallo Aloowaale, 75., had a lot to share. 

He claimed that he had been voting for Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) since 1984. "Mulayam ko vote karna Allah ki marzi hai (it's Allah's will that we vote for Mulayam)," said Haji Jallo. But the same Mulayam allowed quite a few riots to take place in UP, did not he?  To this he said: "Mulayam ne Masjid girne nahi dee (Mulyam ensured that the mosque was not demolished)," said Jallo.

Haji Jallo

When asked about who will the Muslims here vote for, Jallo stopped a few young people, including burqa clad women, and demanded to know, whom they would vote for. With one hand resting on the waist and a young burqa clad woman for the company, a young man said "BSP". "Get out, you scoundrels," screamed Jallo, and the young men and women made a hasty retreat, with glare in their eyes.

With contradictions on display, it was prudent to check with others and Ajgar Hussain Quraisi, 45, seemed quite eager to talk. "We will vote for Mulayam, but young Muslims seem tilting toward BSP. The older generation among Muslims are sticking with Mulayam," said Quraisi.

When Modi's name is dropped, it becomes quite evident that Muslims are extra careful this elections not to allow the BJP run away with most number of seats in UP. "Gardan kata sakte haen par Modi ko vote nahi de sakte (We can lose our lives, but can't vote for Modi," said Muhammed Momeen in Agra. 

There are also a few Muslims who are opting for BSP, because of their unhappiness with the Samajwadi Party government in Lucknow. "We do not get any benefits: no jobs under MGNREGA, no elderly pension, no health care. We will vote for BSP in this elections," said Dilawar Khan, 35, in Konchhi village in Mainpuri (UP).

Dilawar Khan in Mainpuri (UP)

 A few conversations here and there gave a clear picture that the Muslims are identifying strong candidates against BJP across UP. "In Agra, we will vote for BSP; but in Firozabad our votes will go for SP," said Akbar Khan, 40. In Mathura, Muhammed Saleem, 45, said that Muslims would largely be voting for RLD (Jayant Choudhary against Hema Malini). 

Incidentally, UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam are states where "religion in danger" plank has helped political parties to herd Muslims for many decades. Shahid Siddiqui, a former member of Rajya Sabha and editor of Urdu weekly Nai Duniya, came openly in favour of Modi, and argues against "herd" behaviour of Muslims in elections. 

"My timeline on Twitter is flooded with abuses, but I don't care. If Muslims want to progress, they will have to come out of this herd mindset. If they start voting for the BJP, cadre of the party will also accordingly change their beliefs and outlook about Muslims," said Siddiqui.    

 

Ram Sewak Yadav, 55, a keen political observer in Etah (UP), noted that Muslims are in a position to stop BJP in at least 40 Lok Sabha seats. But, he adds, a sharper polarization of non-Muslims and non-Yadavs in favour of the BJP would nullify all tactical advantage that the minority community had been enjoying in previous elections. And that appears to have happened in UP and also taking place in Bihar and Assam, with a beginning in West Bengal as well. 

Clearly, Muslims, egged on by a host of political parties, appear to be on front-line of the cross-fire against Modi. And, that suits Modi well, as is noted by Nirendra Dev, whose book "Modi to Moditva: An uncensored truth" was first to hit the stand among a few more . "After the post-Godhra riots, Modi during campaign for Assembly elections told me that the more he was bashed being anti-Muslims the more he got stronger; and he does not feel the need to counter that image as projected by his rivals," Dev notes.   

India surely awaits Muslims to bolt. It's animals who herd, not humans. And two hundred and fifty seven years are awfully long time to take a leap of faith. 

Mainstreamed

Last two decades of Indian politics undeniably belonged to regional parties. The phenomenon, which began from south of Vindhyanchal, swept through North and East India after 1990s.  And the political march of regional parties gained force with weakening of the Congress was another tale of a weaker Centre in New Delhi.  

Arguably, massive surge in negativism in Indian politics should be singularly blamed on the weak Centre. A politically weak Prime Minister in Manmohan Singh for 10 years derailed the India story, which a surging youth population yearned for. 

But it will be short-sightedness if only Manmohan Singh was singled out for all the ills of the country. Because, regional parties largely remained slave to their poverty of ideas too. 

The story of Tamil Nadu is that of shoddy governance irrespective of the fact whether DMK or the AIADMK ruled the state. In Andhra Pradesh, beneficiaries of "good governance" of former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu were, arguably, entrepreneurs and landed gentries. Later, YSR Rajshekhar Reddy, with his thrust on foodgrains dole out, took the state further backward even though lakhs of engineering and medical graduates yearned for better lives.     

In North, Bihar under the rule of Lalu Prasad saw "dark age" for two decades. In Odisha, Navin Patnaik, enjoying legacy of his father Biju Patnaik, took refuge in cheap foodgrains dole out for his political security. In Jharkhand, misdeeds of regional parties took the state to worse days.

And the tales of Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 80 Lok Sabha seats with a population close to 22 crore, are utterly saddening. "Mulayam ne londo (Akhilesh Yadav) no saara sadak kha gawo (Mulayam's son eat away all the roads". This is what the people in UP tell about the Samajwadi Party government, which came to power with massive mandate in 2012.

The mercurial Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee had scripted history after decimating the 32 long years of Left rule in West Bengal. But she, after three years of being sworn in as chief minister, knows only one thing of her administration, that blame all for the ills of the state. For backwardness, the Centre and Left are responsible; for rapes women are responsible; for crime Left "goons" are to be blamed and so on.  

But these regional satraps are now feeling the heat as the 2014 Lok Sabha elections are near their last leg. They are finding much to their discomfort, that people in their states are expressing openly their views to vote for "Modi Sarkar". 

"Sab ko mauka diya...ek mauka to Modi ji ko bhi milna chahiye...Behenji to PM nahi banengi (Mayawati) naa...(all have got opportunities...Modi too should get one...Mayawati can't become PM," said a Jatav woman in Mathura, who gave her name as Dolly. Incidentally, Jatavs (Dalit) are the core constituency of BSP.   

Jatavs in Mathura

The road to the political power in New Delhi surely passes through the rugged terrain of UP. And this will be better known to no other but Manmohan Singh, who lasted two full terms on the magnanimous support of both Mulayam and Mayawati.

Incidentally, Akhilesh Yadav rode on massive support of all castes, barring Dalits, to power in Lucknow in 2012. He carried the hope, that he would bring in a change in "backward-oriented" politics of Samajwadis. And, hints in the form of distribution of laptops, tablets were there. But he lost all zeal for governance or may be just got overawed in the presence of too many party stalwarts very soon. 

So, children in Mainpuri study squatting on the floor, because they do not have government schools near their villages. Those who got laptop are still learning MS Office even after one year in the hope of getting a data entry job. A course worth Rs 2,000 would have trained them for the job they appear to be seeking.

A pvt school in Mainpuri

In Puri, an executive engineer of the state rural development department lamented that the poor just did not want to work, as they got almost free rice, and even there were no zeal among them to work under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). 

"Modi PM banega to Gujrat ke tarah yahan bhi tarakki hoga...yahan candidate se hamen matlab nahi...vote Modi ke naam par denge (If Modi becomes PM, even our place will develop like Gujrat. Candidates are not important, as we will vote for Modi only," said Vinod Ghiyar in Mainpuri in UP. Ghiyar was not alone, as most people on the campaign trails in UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, AP, etc., have to say the same about the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Incidentally, it was the Congress, which brought "welfarist" mode of politics at the fore of its governance model. Regional parties gleefully aped the Congress, for that made them to reap the windfalls by tapping into pilferage and seepage. Many ministers in Mayawati government were booked for National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scams by the CBI. The MGNREGA is a much bigger pilferage funded by tax-payers. 

"We are about 1,000 families here and none get jobs under MGNREGA, nor any elderly get pension," said Sarvar Khan in Konchhi village near Etawa in UP.

Muslims in Konchhi village in Mainpuri (UP)

The Modi campaign surrounding development easily swept through length and breadth of the country, as people grew tired of "welfarist" politics of the Congress and regional parties. And, so, Mamata Banerjee seems losing her nerves in West Bengal, while Navin Patnaik was pushed to the wall in Odisha. Mulayam is fighting for survival, while Mayawati seems clueless to the march of Modi bandwagon in her backyard. 

Even though Nitish Kumar did some amount of development works in Bihar during his first term, complacency took over him in the second term. And that set in an anti-incumbency wave in Bihar to the extent that it's a puzzle to find out which Lok Sabha seat in the state has his party, JD (U), in real contention. 

After the JD (U) had parted ways with BJP last year, Sharad Yadav beamed with confidence that regional parties would win half of the 545 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. In the winter of his political career, Yadav seems pushed to third position in his Madhepura Lok Sabha seat. 

And, writing on the wall is that regional parties are no more in a position to stop the Modi juggernaut. 

Narendra Modi bike rally in Etah (UP)

While the Congress went into the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign in a defeatist manner, larger story is the wilting of regional parties. And that augurs well for Indian democracy, as the country appears set to leave behind the political legacy of the last two decades, that of the caste and linguistic identities weakening the march of the India story.