Eastern approaches

THE western disturbance has blown over north and west parts of India with all its might, plucking electoral fruits in loads. The gust seemingly growing in strength is now seeking eastern approaches. 

Now that the dust is settling on the battleground in western and northern parts of India, moves have begun for the next electoral war zone, that will be played out in Bihar and West Bengal. That the battle would be fierce and bitter is a foregone conclusion. Because the political generals in the eastern battlefield have already begun their acts of fortification to block the western gust.

In 2011, a temperamental street fighter -- Mamata Banerjee -- uprooted the Left regime in West Bengal, which then seemed to have had millions of roots in nooks and corners of the state, and, hardly any one dared to think that such a gigantic tree could be cut to pieces in such a manner that it would wither away in quick time.

But a street fighter hardly thinks beyond its immediate foe. And sometimes the foe even when vanquished lives through its slayer. That the spirit of the Left rule got another lease of life to survive in West Bengal through Banerjee has been the story of the state for the last three years. 

And, thus, even though the CPI (M) and its multi-headed Left may be terminally ill and counting days to irrelevance, its reincarnation had been immediate and swift through the Trinamool Congress. So, Poribartan (change) was a mere slogan.

Protest in Burdwan.

The extent of Saradha Chit Fund scam is only unfolding and has apparently robbed Mamata Banerjee of her famed clean image. Her obsession to herd the Muslim vote bank has unnerved even her ardent supporters. The Burdwan blast at a premise being used by terrorists has shaken the belief of a lot of people. And, the subsequent political campaign with the apparent blessing of Mamata Banerjee to pitch the Muslims and NIA against each other appears to be the turning point in the politics of the state.

THAT West Bengal is turning into Uttar Pradesh is the clear writing on the wall. Since 2012, Uttar Pradesh under Samajwadi Party government saw a brazen "Muslim flexing muscle" political phase spearheaded by senior minister and till 2014 (May) close confidante of Mulayam Singh Yadav -- Azam Khan. And in a span of two years UP reported incidences of over 300 communal riots. 

Azam Khan with blessing of Mulayam Singh Yadav attempted to polarise Muslims in UP. But he and his aka realised to their horror that the BJP set in a reverse polarisation, which they had not thought in their wildest of the dream. By the time Mulayam Singh Yadav dumped Azam Khan, his party was decimated. 

Mamata Banerjee idolized her foe (Left) for its political longevity and stability. She knew that she could emulate the Left only if she herded Muslims, who roughly account for about 30 per cent of the state's population.  If she succeeds in her herding game, she would not need the Congress. And for three years, the Poribartan had been about herding Muslims. The extent and brazenness of this exercise does not have a parallel even in the usual suspect UP.

For about three years, she and her confidante Mukul Roy were the politburo of her party. In May this year, the BJP woke her up from deep sleep by bagging two Lok Sabha seats. The gentle wake up call turned into horror, after the BJP won a byelection for state Assembly. The horror  now threatens to turn into a nightmare. Because, the western gust is not just at her doorstep, but sweeping through her state in a gentle wind, with promises to gain more strength.

Realizing she is in a spot, Mamata Banerjee made Mulul Roy at whose residence she loved to play piano for hours a scapegoat and dumped him. Her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, an MP, is now in the forefront of her party, with insiders sensing birth of another political dynasty. And all those who were keeping distance from her due to Mukul Roy is now enjoying pleasant bout of mood swing of Mamata Banerjee. 

But two years may not be enough to undo a course which ran for three years. For those three years have ended the political monopoly. 

NITISH Kumar trusted his Mahadalit constituency. He believed that Mahadalits and Muslims would ensure his further run in Bihar politics. The May verdict proved, he was wrong. That he did not sense the changing wind was for his two ears being hostage to Pawan Verma and a Delhi based journalist. He sensed too late, that he had lent his ears to those who had no ear to ground. 

He thought, he could survive in Bihar if he could hide behind a political shikhandi and he found one in Jitan Ram

Teachers lathicharhed in Patna

Manjhi, a Mahadalit. Nitish Kumar may have bought a few more days to discover strategy to save his political clout, but his decision to prop up Manjhi pushed Bihar into greater disarray. 

The political caste is changing and is no more herding. And, it has been none other than Dalits, who bolted first. They reason, that they had been electing people from their caste for decades, but barring community pride no other tangible benefit came their ways. And, hence, they voted for the BJP in UP and Bihar in sizable numbers. Therefore, Jitan Ram Manjhi may turn out to be an effective political shikhandi but may not stop the inevitable.

Bihar and West Bengal now host the Great Game of Indian politics.

A mighty slump

That pampered lots are supremely blessed with power to self-destruct is surely a hard truth of life. Such individuals leave stories largely unheard, but those in public life leave telling tales to be told and re-told. 

And Nitish Kumar, a Prime Ministerial candidate till not long ago, has been such a masterly phenomenon of political rise and fall, that Shakespeare might have found in him a tragedy king. Political commentators can not deny being in love with him even if he is being denounced for his masterly swing to casteism from being a development icon.

Incidentally, RJD chief Lalu Prasad was political mentor of Nitish Kumar during the march of Mandal politics, which swept through Gangetic belt in 1990s. When Lalu Prasad had to quit as chief minister of Bihar, after being charge-sheeted in fodder scam, he thrust his illiterate wife, Rabri Devi, onto the state. 

That act of political expediency may have extended Lalu Prasad's reign in Bihar for a few more years, but a whole generation grew up with a sense of inferiority complex thereafter. The Congress president Sonia Gandhi aped Lalu Prasad in 2004 to pick Manmohan Singh, who was not an illiterate but an economist of high repute. But another generation has grown up with gloom during the last 10 years.

Political scientists may need to invent a term to explain this art of political expediency of thrusting somebody for personal exigency. Because, it's spreading like a virus, which has infected Nitish Kumar now. 

Some extraordinary commentators could go to the extent of claiming the anointing of Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit hailing from Most Backward Caste (MBC), as a political masterstroke of NItish Kumar to checkmate rise of BJP in Bihar. But that will be too shallow to last a few days in public discourse. 

Jitan Manjhi

Because, Bihar inherently has a restlessness, which may not be in other states, to turn people repugnant with the very idea of casteism imprisoning governance in the state. By the way, Manjhi's administrative skill was so well acknowledged by Nitish Kumar, that he could not find for him a better ministry than the SC&ST welfare.  

Incidentally, Nitish Kumar is not the only chief minister who faced an electoral rout in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. He is in the company of Omar Abdullah and Akhilesh Yadav. But they have reacted differently to the verdict.

In fact, Omar Abdullah is seeking to undo mistakes of his government and tweeted his e-mail id to connect with the people to learn why was he punished in such a manner. Akhilesh Yadav is seeking to shrug off the shadow of his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and assert his leadership. 

But Nitish Kumar chose to relinquish the office, while "taking moral responsibility". His party chief Sharad Yadav has not yet resigned. Arguably, it can also not be ruled out that Nitish Kumar could not digest the idea of his arch-rival Narendra Modi becoming Prime Minister.

Arguably, the fall and rise in political career of Nitish Kumar and Kahkashan Parveen seem so overlapping to

Kahkashan Parveen

ignore. Parveen, a little known woman from Bhagalpur, first became a municipal corporator a few years ago and since then she has been rising and rising only.

Nitish Kumar first appointed her chairperson of Bihar Commission of Women and a few months earlier shocked most of his party men by sending her to Rajya Sabha. Politically Nitish sought to send the message that he was reaching out to Muslims. He denied Rajya Sabha nominations to party heavyweights Shivanand Tiwari, NK Singh and Sabir Ali.

Within JD (U), leaders and party workers saw Nitish in his full arrogance bloom during Rajya Sabha nomination episode. And, politics is sadly no hunting grounds for arrogant lots. That Nitish was handed over worst electoral defeat confirm him having lost touch with ground realities.

Was not Nitish Kumar hailed a development icon till a few years ago? Did he not win best chief minister awards at the hands of TV channels? Did not the media hail him for turning around a state, which had a long spell of dark age under his predecessors -- Rabri Devi and Lalu Prasad? Did not the Planning Commission of India certify Bihar of having achieved highest State GDP growth among all states?

Questions are too many and they should baffle political commentators. Because, Indian democracy in the last two decades has come to reward good governance. And answers of these questions will reveal the narrow world view of Nitish Kumar and his aloofness.

State of roads in states generally give a good measure of the administrative skills of chief ministers. In his first term, Nitish Kumar won accolades for building good quality roads. His models of monitoring on real time basis was also replicated in other states.

Incidentally, by the time Nitish went to people for another mandate in 2010, he even claimed that any one can reach any part of the state from Patna in a flat six hours.

But claims were highly exaggerated. Incidentally, this blogger, believing Nitish's words, could reach half the distance that chief minister had stated in 12 hours time a year ago. And the ride had been so bumpy, that one would need full two days of rest to recover from agony of road journey.

Public at large blame Nitish Kumar in the state for having destroyed education in schools by using teacher recruitment to further his political interests. Law and order situation improved and later nose-dived.

"Nitish did not take drive against criminals in  the state to its logical conclusion. The man who was credited to have put an end to lawlessness during Lalu-Rabri time soon lost favour with Nitish and was transferred to police training institute. Nitish is running a bureaucratic government where dissent is not heard," said Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lallan Singh during a conversation with this blogger two years ago. At that time Lallan Singh, after being the close confidante of Nitish Kumar, was also thrown out of the inner court of former Bihar chief minister.

And clear pitfall of a bureaucratic government is wide-spread corruption. So, greasing palms of all kinds of people in government jobs, from a beat constable to a clerk to higher ups, is the story of the second tenure of Nitish Kumar.

Surrounded by sycophants in Patna and encouraged by adulation of New Delhi media, Nitish Kumar apparently thought of himself as Navin Patnaik of Odisha, that there was no alternative to him in the state.

But his belief was utterly out of place. And he chose to self-destruct by snapping 17 years alliance with the BJP. That he did because he was convinced that weakening of the Congress meant revival of the idea of Third Front, and the BJP not being a pan-India party could at best get 180 Lok Sabha seats.

And, therefore, the JD (U) had supported Pranab Mukherjee in Presidential elections even while the BJP backed Purno Sangma. "After next year's elections, there will be instability at the Centre and, hence, we need someone like Pranab Mukherjee in Rashtrapati Bhavan," JD (U) chief Sharad Yadav had explained why his party was not going along with the BJP.

The 2014 verdict shattered all hopes of instability at the Centre. Nitish Kumar misjudged people's minds. And that he did, because he was disconnected. Incidentally, he's repeating his mistake, that of thinking that key to power in Bihar is through the caste arithmetic.

Those who do not learn from their mistakes are condemned as fools of worst orders. And Nitish should know that Indian politics has left behind arithmetic and is now flying with wings of hope.

To catch this ride he needs a mighty leap of faith, but he has chosen a mighty slump instead.