Five percent politician

NOT many months ago, a chief minister snubbed his senior ministerial colleague in a Cabinet meeting in such a manner that tears rolled out in torrents from the swollen eyes of the poor soul. In politics, tables turn often, and, fortune too.

The tearful man, that day, is now chief minister of Bihar -- Jitan Ram Manjhi -- and his tormentor then was an aspiring Prime Minister, until May this year -- Nitish Kumar. And after the turning of the wheel, Manjhi is paying back in kind for what all he got for over a decade from his political master.

Just another day, Nitish Kumar showed up in New Delhi in the august company of Shivpal Singh Yadav, who has many identities besides that of a brother of Mulayam Singh Yadav and senior minister in Akhilesh Yadav Cabinet, but his fame is for his being a popular political "goonda" of Uttar Pradesh. Also giving him the company was Prem Chand Gupta, the man-friday of Lalu Prasad and not known for great virtues. 

A few weeks back Nitish Kumar showed up at a rally of Jat leader Ajit Singh in western UP for political unity of parties smashed by the Narendra Modi wave. That commitment for political unity lasted only a few days, as Mulayam Singh Yadav found no space at his home for the Jat leader. That should sufficiently speak of the political convictions of Nitish Kumar and his restlessness to leapfrog to the national limelight again.

A month after the May verdict on Lok Sabha elections, a mentor and man instrumental in propping up Nitish Kumar as CM of Bihar had this to say: "It was his personal ambition that Nitish helped Narendra Modi's cause in becoming BJP's PM candidate. If we -- JD (U) -- had not snapped ties with the BJP, Modi may not have bulldozed through his party to become the PM candidate. We were a bone stuck in BJP's throat and snapping ties with the party we ourselves helped Modi. It was not ideology but a personal decision to break away from the BJP."

DID Nitish Kumar really believe he could have been a PM candidate? The media is conditioned to patterns, and most believed people can not give majority to a party at the Centre, that too to the BJP. And they drummed up the Nitish Kumar card since 2012 as the acceptable face for the PM post. "Yes, he not only believed, but had started living the dream. And a number of BJP leaders had helped him believe this dream," the mentor-turned-senior leader of the JD (U) told this blogger.  

Nitish Kumar not only lived the dream, but turned destructive to nurse his personal enmity with Narendra Modi. And, he continues to find ways and means to gather the strength to challenge his political turned personal enemy -- Narendra Modi.

"Nitish Kumar never forgives any and can wait for years to take revenge," Sabir Ali, once a close confidante of Nitish Kumar and former Rajya Sabha MP said when asked to spell out five negative features of former Bihar chief minister. His personal ego overwhelms other issues and carries arrogance in party and administrative works, said Ali, while listing the negatives.

On the positive, of course, Ali credits Nitish Kumar to be a pleasant person for whom smile comes naturally. "He told me once that even if a CIA agent spends whole day with him, he would fail to take out any secret," Ali quoted Nitish Kumar having told him about his art of keeping secrets. 

And for that matter, Lalu Prasad never tired of saying for over a decade that "while all have teeth in their mouths, Nitish Kumar had them in his stomach". Lalu Prasad's description was not for Nitish Kumar's art of keeping secrets, but for his guile. But enemy of an enemy is a friend in politics, and both are now family. That bonding obviously has happened after politics took a turn hostile to their brand of politics.

THOSE who have seen Nitish Kumar from close quarters also state that he is a man of few friends. And that cripples his worldview. For that matter, his eyes and ears were two persons for at least a year running into the May Lok Sabha elections -- Pawan Kumar Verma, an unlikely person from the background of Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) and a prominent journalist, who wears and smokes socialism to an extent that the changing wind easily gives him a slip. 

These two made Nitish Kumar believe that the Narendra Modi wave was all about the one pumped through a "blower". And people heard him his denial of changing winds in politics. He had been blinded by the blindness of his two friends. Such blindness is attitudinal for which, sadly, there is hardly any cure.  

Whenever a political biography of Nitish Kumar is written, an apt title for it could be "A political gambler". His belief in politics of arithmetic is religious. And he believed that the combo of Backward-Dalit-Muslims is too tall a wall for any to climb. That Modi not only climbed but smashed it has been spoken and commented enough for any repetition. Religious belief lasts long and still beholds Nitish Kumar.

                                                                                                                                                            

And, hence, he propped Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit, to win back the community, which to his shock, had deserted for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. But the gamble seems to be going haywire. Manjhi soon realized that he had had enough of his master and began shrugging off his shadow. That Bihar is hostage in recent times of drama enacted each day by Manjhi is part of the larger political design. The gap between the pawn (Manjhi) and his master had been so wide in recent days that Sharad Yadav had to dash recently to Patna to build bridges. 

Nitish Kumar is restless to carve out a role for himself in national politics. So, he was in the company of Mulayam Yadav, Lalu Prasad, H D Deve Gowda, Dushyant Choutala and others. 

Chirag Paswan, son of Ram Vilas Paswan and Lok Sabha MP, would largely be considered a political novice. But his take on Nitish Kumar's efforts to reunite the old Janta Dal to counter Narendra Modi is worth taking note of. "All of them have been tigers of their respective territories. If they all come in one cage, the fate of the cage could well be imagined," junior Paswan told this blogger.   

For the moment, tigers invite only skepticism, because two plus two is not necessarily four in politics and that too in India.    

A mighty slump

That pampered lots are supremely blessed with power to self-destruct is surely a hard truth of life. Such individuals leave stories largely unheard, but those in public life leave telling tales to be told and re-told. 

And Nitish Kumar, a Prime Ministerial candidate till not long ago, has been such a masterly phenomenon of political rise and fall, that Shakespeare might have found in him a tragedy king. Political commentators can not deny being in love with him even if he is being denounced for his masterly swing to casteism from being a development icon.

Incidentally, RJD chief Lalu Prasad was political mentor of Nitish Kumar during the march of Mandal politics, which swept through Gangetic belt in 1990s. When Lalu Prasad had to quit as chief minister of Bihar, after being charge-sheeted in fodder scam, he thrust his illiterate wife, Rabri Devi, onto the state. 

That act of political expediency may have extended Lalu Prasad's reign in Bihar for a few more years, but a whole generation grew up with a sense of inferiority complex thereafter. The Congress president Sonia Gandhi aped Lalu Prasad in 2004 to pick Manmohan Singh, who was not an illiterate but an economist of high repute. But another generation has grown up with gloom during the last 10 years.

Political scientists may need to invent a term to explain this art of political expediency of thrusting somebody for personal exigency. Because, it's spreading like a virus, which has infected Nitish Kumar now. 

Some extraordinary commentators could go to the extent of claiming the anointing of Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit hailing from Most Backward Caste (MBC), as a political masterstroke of NItish Kumar to checkmate rise of BJP in Bihar. But that will be too shallow to last a few days in public discourse. 

Jitan Manjhi

Because, Bihar inherently has a restlessness, which may not be in other states, to turn people repugnant with the very idea of casteism imprisoning governance in the state. By the way, Manjhi's administrative skill was so well acknowledged by Nitish Kumar, that he could not find for him a better ministry than the SC&ST welfare.  

Incidentally, Nitish Kumar is not the only chief minister who faced an electoral rout in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. He is in the company of Omar Abdullah and Akhilesh Yadav. But they have reacted differently to the verdict.

In fact, Omar Abdullah is seeking to undo mistakes of his government and tweeted his e-mail id to connect with the people to learn why was he punished in such a manner. Akhilesh Yadav is seeking to shrug off the shadow of his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and assert his leadership. 

But Nitish Kumar chose to relinquish the office, while "taking moral responsibility". His party chief Sharad Yadav has not yet resigned. Arguably, it can also not be ruled out that Nitish Kumar could not digest the idea of his arch-rival Narendra Modi becoming Prime Minister.

Arguably, the fall and rise in political career of Nitish Kumar and Kahkashan Parveen seem so overlapping to

Kahkashan Parveen

ignore. Parveen, a little known woman from Bhagalpur, first became a municipal corporator a few years ago and since then she has been rising and rising only.

Nitish Kumar first appointed her chairperson of Bihar Commission of Women and a few months earlier shocked most of his party men by sending her to Rajya Sabha. Politically Nitish sought to send the message that he was reaching out to Muslims. He denied Rajya Sabha nominations to party heavyweights Shivanand Tiwari, NK Singh and Sabir Ali.

Within JD (U), leaders and party workers saw Nitish in his full arrogance bloom during Rajya Sabha nomination episode. And, politics is sadly no hunting grounds for arrogant lots. That Nitish was handed over worst electoral defeat confirm him having lost touch with ground realities.

Was not Nitish Kumar hailed a development icon till a few years ago? Did he not win best chief minister awards at the hands of TV channels? Did not the media hail him for turning around a state, which had a long spell of dark age under his predecessors -- Rabri Devi and Lalu Prasad? Did not the Planning Commission of India certify Bihar of having achieved highest State GDP growth among all states?

Questions are too many and they should baffle political commentators. Because, Indian democracy in the last two decades has come to reward good governance. And answers of these questions will reveal the narrow world view of Nitish Kumar and his aloofness.

State of roads in states generally give a good measure of the administrative skills of chief ministers. In his first term, Nitish Kumar won accolades for building good quality roads. His models of monitoring on real time basis was also replicated in other states.

Incidentally, by the time Nitish went to people for another mandate in 2010, he even claimed that any one can reach any part of the state from Patna in a flat six hours.

But claims were highly exaggerated. Incidentally, this blogger, believing Nitish's words, could reach half the distance that chief minister had stated in 12 hours time a year ago. And the ride had been so bumpy, that one would need full two days of rest to recover from agony of road journey.

Public at large blame Nitish Kumar in the state for having destroyed education in schools by using teacher recruitment to further his political interests. Law and order situation improved and later nose-dived.

"Nitish did not take drive against criminals in  the state to its logical conclusion. The man who was credited to have put an end to lawlessness during Lalu-Rabri time soon lost favour with Nitish and was transferred to police training institute. Nitish is running a bureaucratic government where dissent is not heard," said Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lallan Singh during a conversation with this blogger two years ago. At that time Lallan Singh, after being the close confidante of Nitish Kumar, was also thrown out of the inner court of former Bihar chief minister.

And clear pitfall of a bureaucratic government is wide-spread corruption. So, greasing palms of all kinds of people in government jobs, from a beat constable to a clerk to higher ups, is the story of the second tenure of Nitish Kumar.

Surrounded by sycophants in Patna and encouraged by adulation of New Delhi media, Nitish Kumar apparently thought of himself as Navin Patnaik of Odisha, that there was no alternative to him in the state.

But his belief was utterly out of place. And he chose to self-destruct by snapping 17 years alliance with the BJP. That he did because he was convinced that weakening of the Congress meant revival of the idea of Third Front, and the BJP not being a pan-India party could at best get 180 Lok Sabha seats.

And, therefore, the JD (U) had supported Pranab Mukherjee in Presidential elections even while the BJP backed Purno Sangma. "After next year's elections, there will be instability at the Centre and, hence, we need someone like Pranab Mukherjee in Rashtrapati Bhavan," JD (U) chief Sharad Yadav had explained why his party was not going along with the BJP.

The 2014 verdict shattered all hopes of instability at the Centre. Nitish Kumar misjudged people's minds. And that he did, because he was disconnected. Incidentally, he's repeating his mistake, that of thinking that key to power in Bihar is through the caste arithmetic.

Those who do not learn from their mistakes are condemned as fools of worst orders. And Nitish should know that Indian politics has left behind arithmetic and is now flying with wings of hope.

To catch this ride he needs a mighty leap of faith, but he has chosen a mighty slump instead. 

Turning of the wheel of time

A decade back India's most admired politician Atal Bihari Vajpayee could not believe that the people had rejected him. That six years of "good works" could not impress people seemed beyond his comprehension.

In his moments of disbelief, his friend and colleague Sharad Yadav visited him one evening in 2004 just after the Lok Sabha elections. "Aap bhi haar gaye (you too lost)," Vajpayee sighed at the sight of the socialist. 

"Aapko to maaloom hai ham kis liye haare...(you know why we have lost)," gushed Yadav.

Vajpayee, with a sense of rejection, sat down to chat with his former Cabinet colleague. They concurred, that the NDA government would have retained power in 2004 had Gujrat chief minister Narendra Modi been punished for the post-Godhra riots in 2002.

"This country did not re-elect Vajpayee because he could not act against Modi. People forgot all the good works of Vajpayee and punished him for the (mis)deeds of Modi. Yeh desh Modi ko kabhi PM nahi bana sakta (this country can never make Modi a PM)," Yadav told this blogger last year, after his party, JD (U), had snapped 17 years long relations with the BJP.

Yadav has lost another elections from the same Madhepura Lok Sabha seat in Bihar.

In 2004 he had lost to RJD's Lalu Prasad. Now, he has lost to Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav of the RJD. And, Madhepura where Yadavs consider themselves to be too intellectual to elect a muscleman has exactly done so.

But Vajpayee is no more in his senses to receive Yadav and ask him why he lost another elections. India's most admired politicians for many decades no more recognizes people and at the most he smiles at those who go to meet him.

However, if Vajpayee had been in his senses, he would have again been bewildered to see that India has elected Modi for Prime Ministerial job. That too with a number so stunning, that the whole Opposition may stay in shock for quite longer time.

And with his insight he would have known that his belief in 2004 of having lost re-elections due to post-Godhra riots and his inability to act against the "rogue" chief minister was so off the mark.

That the 2004 NDA defeat had much to do with arrogant "India shining" campaign and sheer arrogance of Pramod Mahajan were lost to majority of media, who were blinded by stereotyped campaign against Modi and now hopefully seeks to rediscover their sight, after the people have given their verdict. 

The wheel of time has turned.

Now, India's most demonized politician for a decade is all set to be sworn in as Prime Minister. He inspires so much of hatred in his rivals, that Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi do not consider proper to take his name on their lips. And true to the character of the Congress, other leaders of the party ape the mother-son duo to the hilt.

But India has moved much beyond the comprehension of Sonia Gandhi and her son. And by the time they would realize that India is no more a country of people seeking free rice and wheat, Modi would have delivered fatal blow to the very roots of the Congress.

An unemployed educated in Bhagalpur, Bihar.

Last two and a half decades of Indian democracy saw willy politicians  putting fetters of "secularism" to the people.

In the garb of protecting India's secularism, these willy politicians institutionalized dynasty in Indian politics. And to perpetuate their "secular" politics and safeguard dynasties, they took an ultra-Left turn for worse. 

The game-plan may have lasted a little longer if not for P V Narsimha Rao opening up India's windows to the world.

That Manmohan Singh was such a gifted Finance Minister under Rao and such a wasted Prime Minister under Sonia Gandhi should surely be a matter of another commentary, but he did help India see enormity of opportunities, which lied on the path of development.

In those frosty years of 1990s, India and its people had seen and read progress made by South-east Asian nations. And they rightly thought and aspired that India too could do much better than the smaller South-east Asian nations. 

Furthermore, Vajpayee gave wings to dreams of teeming millions of people. And then the A P J Abdul Kalam phenomenon happened. This dreamy man made Indians not only dream but even chase them.

And he made a lot of people believe that India would be a developed nation by 2020.

But Vajpayee was ousted, and, with the support of the Left, the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) came to power in 2004. The Left painted the UPA in deep red colour.

The dream of India becoming a developed nation by 2020 was thrown into a dust-bin and the country returned on the path traversed in 1980s.

If the Left was not enough, Sonia Gandhi packed her National Advisory Council (NAC) with ultra-Leftists and jhollawaalas who ran NGOs here and there.

And they believed that ensuring almost free rice and wheat to 75 per cent population of the country was the job for which there should be a government in New Delhi. 

A village in Itawa (UP)

A whole decade was lost. A generation soaked themselves in anguish at the lost opportunities.

The colleges graduated skilled professionals, who sought jobs to sell soaps.

Government stopped recruiting and corporate began laying off.

And India soon had an army of unemployed and under-employed and improperly employed mass of youth cursing each and every one on government and politics.

India had been such a paradox from 2004-14, that the posterity would ask, how could so many fools ruled the country at the same time. And the younger generation knew better than the most, that they could not afford to waste another decade chasing the discarded Russian ways of governance.

In Modi, India has seen a hope to redeem itself. And, he as a true politician had the measure of the pulse of the nation before any one else had. He knew that there is a lot of anger in India, which is aspirational. 

And, the "culprit" who cut short the innings of Vajpayee presented himself as the man who could empathize with anger of the nation and yet jacked up aspirations manifold. But he carried the track-record, which made the people believe each word that he uttered.

"A business house based out of Kolkata had applied online to Gujrat government for setting up a plant in the state," said a senior Samajwadi Party leader, who tried to drive home the point why Modi was connecting with the people.

A couple of days later, mobile phone of the businessman rang and to his hello, the man on the other side said, that he was Narendra Modi speaking. Still in shock, the businessman heard Modi asking him if he could come to Ahmedabad next day for a 2.30 PM appointment.

He readied a suitcase of files to make presentation and met the appointment. As he spread out his files on the table, with Modi sitting on the other side, Gujrat CM told him, that the papers could be put back in the suitcase. 

"This is a three-page MoU, which we have prepared, wherein we have mentioned what all support the state government would provide for your proposed plant. If there is anything missing, you can let us know," Modi told the businessman, who found that there was nothing missing. And the MoU was signed there and then.

"Now, tell me which chief minister in India works like that and if he is able to connect with the people, why should any one complaint," the SP leader told this blogger.

Arguably, 2014 verdict is a body blow to practitioners of politics of secularism in Gangetic plains of UP and Bihar. The only other state where this brand of politics could survive even after the Modi Tsunami is West Bengal.

That the mercurial wonder lady of Indian politics has survived Modi onslaught is true, but is surely not going to be her permanent feat. And she will have to face a much bigger push of developmental politics in 2016 state elections, which is written clearly on the wall. 

Some dreams never die.

The wheel of time has turned and has turned against all those who take people for a ride in the name of saving India's "secularism". 

And not only Vajpayee was wrong in diagnosing defeat of NDA in 2004 even his comrade L K Advani has been utterly out of sync with time.

You can't flog one man all years for one riot irrespective of the fact whether he was complicit or not. There has been 179 communal riots under the watch of Akhilesh Yadav in UP since 2012 and still this chief minister is "greatest custodian of secularism".  

Hypocrisy has an expiry date. And it lasts a little longer only in places, where people are hell-bent to commit suicide.