Eastern approaches

THE western disturbance has blown over north and west parts of India with all its might, plucking electoral fruits in loads. The gust seemingly growing in strength is now seeking eastern approaches. 

Now that the dust is settling on the battleground in western and northern parts of India, moves have begun for the next electoral war zone, that will be played out in Bihar and West Bengal. That the battle would be fierce and bitter is a foregone conclusion. Because the political generals in the eastern battlefield have already begun their acts of fortification to block the western gust.

In 2011, a temperamental street fighter -- Mamata Banerjee -- uprooted the Left regime in West Bengal, which then seemed to have had millions of roots in nooks and corners of the state, and, hardly any one dared to think that such a gigantic tree could be cut to pieces in such a manner that it would wither away in quick time.

But a street fighter hardly thinks beyond its immediate foe. And sometimes the foe even when vanquished lives through its slayer. That the spirit of the Left rule got another lease of life to survive in West Bengal through Banerjee has been the story of the state for the last three years. 

And, thus, even though the CPI (M) and its multi-headed Left may be terminally ill and counting days to irrelevance, its reincarnation had been immediate and swift through the Trinamool Congress. So, Poribartan (change) was a mere slogan.

Protest in Burdwan.

The extent of Saradha Chit Fund scam is only unfolding and has apparently robbed Mamata Banerjee of her famed clean image. Her obsession to herd the Muslim vote bank has unnerved even her ardent supporters. The Burdwan blast at a premise being used by terrorists has shaken the belief of a lot of people. And, the subsequent political campaign with the apparent blessing of Mamata Banerjee to pitch the Muslims and NIA against each other appears to be the turning point in the politics of the state.

THAT West Bengal is turning into Uttar Pradesh is the clear writing on the wall. Since 2012, Uttar Pradesh under Samajwadi Party government saw a brazen "Muslim flexing muscle" political phase spearheaded by senior minister and till 2014 (May) close confidante of Mulayam Singh Yadav -- Azam Khan. And in a span of two years UP reported incidences of over 300 communal riots. 

Azam Khan with blessing of Mulayam Singh Yadav attempted to polarise Muslims in UP. But he and his aka realised to their horror that the BJP set in a reverse polarisation, which they had not thought in their wildest of the dream. By the time Mulayam Singh Yadav dumped Azam Khan, his party was decimated. 

Mamata Banerjee idolized her foe (Left) for its political longevity and stability. She knew that she could emulate the Left only if she herded Muslims, who roughly account for about 30 per cent of the state's population.  If she succeeds in her herding game, she would not need the Congress. And for three years, the Poribartan had been about herding Muslims. The extent and brazenness of this exercise does not have a parallel even in the usual suspect UP.

For about three years, she and her confidante Mukul Roy were the politburo of her party. In May this year, the BJP woke her up from deep sleep by bagging two Lok Sabha seats. The gentle wake up call turned into horror, after the BJP won a byelection for state Assembly. The horror  now threatens to turn into a nightmare. Because, the western gust is not just at her doorstep, but sweeping through her state in a gentle wind, with promises to gain more strength.

Realizing she is in a spot, Mamata Banerjee made Mulul Roy at whose residence she loved to play piano for hours a scapegoat and dumped him. Her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, an MP, is now in the forefront of her party, with insiders sensing birth of another political dynasty. And all those who were keeping distance from her due to Mukul Roy is now enjoying pleasant bout of mood swing of Mamata Banerjee. 

But two years may not be enough to undo a course which ran for three years. For those three years have ended the political monopoly. 

NITISH Kumar trusted his Mahadalit constituency. He believed that Mahadalits and Muslims would ensure his further run in Bihar politics. The May verdict proved, he was wrong. That he did not sense the changing wind was for his two ears being hostage to Pawan Verma and a Delhi based journalist. He sensed too late, that he had lent his ears to those who had no ear to ground. 

He thought, he could survive in Bihar if he could hide behind a political shikhandi and he found one in Jitan Ram

Teachers lathicharhed in Patna

Manjhi, a Mahadalit. Nitish Kumar may have bought a few more days to discover strategy to save his political clout, but his decision to prop up Manjhi pushed Bihar into greater disarray. 

The political caste is changing and is no more herding. And, it has been none other than Dalits, who bolted first. They reason, that they had been electing people from their caste for decades, but barring community pride no other tangible benefit came their ways. And, hence, they voted for the BJP in UP and Bihar in sizable numbers. Therefore, Jitan Ram Manjhi may turn out to be an effective political shikhandi but may not stop the inevitable.

Bihar and West Bengal now host the Great Game of Indian politics.