Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Can Manmohan do a Rao, derail Rahul Gandhi's PM bid by 5 yrs?

Skeleton is finally gaining muscle. The July 5 Bharat Bandh tactically called by NDA and Left in a way that about 17 Opposition parties took part and brought the country to a grinding halt. Price rise often rejected as am election issue just appears to have infused life into dead Opposition, with the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh helping them revive through his "economic-bureaucratic" policies directly hitting the middle class where it hurts the most. The UPA has a mandate till 2014. Four more years to go for political churning to take place.

The reign of former Prime Minister Narsimha Rao had taken the Congress out of power for about eight years, with the NDA ruling for about six years. Though it will be a little premature to take a call on the outcome of 2014 elections, the young scion of the Gandhi family, Rahul Gandhi, who already turned 40, might have to wait a little longer to occupy the coveted post if the Opposition continues gaining muscles with fodder supplied by Mr Manmohan Singh.

There will be no Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh to repeat the resounding victory of the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress has lost Rajshekhara Reddy in AP. Kerala and TN are known for a revolving door mandate. People in Delhi are beating their chest for having voted the Congress. UP results in 2009 are all turning out to be a fluke, with the Dumariyaganj Assembly byelection result where the Congress came fifth though the party had bagged the Lok Sabha seat just a year back has already sent consternation in Rahul Gandhi camp. The emergence of the Peace Party in UP on the support of the Muslim constituency is only helping the BJP to limp back to life. With major states out of the kitty of the Congress, Mr Gandhi might have to just work a little extra for the revival of the party apparatus in Bihar, West Bengal and UP where it is not even among the top two contenders.

Former BJP leader and ex-UP chief minister Kalyan Singh after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections had given a long postmortem of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. Basically, he had two contentions. First, price rise is not an elections issue. This is now proving to be wrong, as a large section of population, including those who earn quite handsome salary, are being hit where it hurts the most. Also, the euphoria of the sixth pay commission bonanza has long subsided. His second contention was that it was suicidal on the part of BJP's L. K. Advani to have personally attacked Mr Manmohan Singh, who is revered by the middle class for probity and knowledge. Having spent six years in the office, the people could just now be losing faith in the "knowledge and leadership" of Mr Singh, which has only made the life difficult of many. People in India take a long time to discard their loved ones but when they do it gives a feeling of a bolt from the blue, as was the case with Mr Vajpayee.

Though there are four more years for Mr Singh for course correction, he, however, has unflinching faith in his medicine, that he would go on in the same way if Mrs Sonia Gandhi does not decide to install her son Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Minister in 2012 after the UP Assembly elections.