Democracy is full of second chance.
It all began from the iconic Gandhi Maidan in Patna in October, 2013 where substantial part of the script for 2014 battle was written. In another three months, much of the script for the 2019, still four years away, will be written in Bihar. The outcome of Bihar polls due in October this year will by all accounts set course for a political process with all eyes on the month of May four years later.
Bihar will test the 32 and 68 per cent electoral debate. That Narendra Modi commanded a mere 32 per cent of the vote share in the 2014 polls offered a cocoon of political comfort to his political rivals. The natural consequence was to offer a united political alternative to the 68 per cent Modi naysayers.
The looming electoral challenge in Bihar made the warring "socialist" satraps to bury their hatchets. They came to believe that if they did not unite they risk being annihilated sooner. The likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar, Ajit Singh and Om Prakash Choutala had seen their political herds quite overwhelmingly demolished by Modi in 2014. They came to believe that the herds were broken because they were fragmented.
The political balloon of Janata Parivar taking a shape is contingent on the outcomes of Bihar polls. If its proponents succeed in Bihar in stopping Modi, it will take wings to fly on the national horizon. If it fails, it will not wither away but jolt the skeptics in the ranks to push their personal ego little back in their calculations. And efforts with full hearts unlike currently when they have pushed Nitish to fight a lonely battle against Modi will be made.
History is not on the side of Modi, for no reformist government has ever been re-elected in the country. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had the candour to advance the elections on the back of eight plus growth rate, yet Congress humbled him. India's economic reform template historically has left millions of poor in the country out of place in the shining moon. That the Maoists registered exponential growth during the times of PV Narsimha Rao and Vajpayee has well been statistically documented to warrant any further repetition.
The anti-Modi political space is currently rudderless and leaderless. They can not tolerate the idea of some one from their ranks emerging their leader. That has been the story so far, but the future is not necessarily hostage to history. And the time is ripe for one of them to sparkle the national political space.
Among plethora of regional satraps, only Nitish and Akhilesh Yadav stand any chance to play a larger political role at the national level. Akhilesh is still a student of politics and learning the tricks of governance with much strain. But he's just about 40 years of age and has quite a long rope to swing in Indian politics. His father -- Mulayam Singh Yadav -- is in the winter of his career. In the immediate future, Akhilesh may have to cope with a lot of fratricidal war within the extended Mulayam clan to consolidate his political clout.
Nitish has been a turnaround chief minister of Bihar for a decade. His rivals have quite good reasons to call him a political opportunist, for he sheltered in the bosom of one whom he ridiculed during most part of his days in power. Yet, politics is not an abode of permanent friends and enemies; all are circumstantial. Regional satraps know in their hearts that Nitish only has stature among them to challenge the Modi hegemony.
If he wins Bihar elections, Nitish will emerge a counterfoil of Modi immediately. If he goes down fighting, Nitish will still be in the reckoning. Bihar will have another chance to leave its mark on national political discourse and, hence, the October polls have significance much larger to its local issues.
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