Delhi Assembly Elections: Prashant Kishor's swing management

Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal waited for seven hours to file his nomination papers from the New Delhi Assembly constituency. That was a day after his roadshow pulled in a large number of cheer crowd to make him skip filing the nomination papers. The simple filing of nomination papers hogged the limelight for two days. The BJP played along, first by floating the strategy to surprise Kejriwal with a heavyweight challenger, only to spring a tame script in Sunil Yadav, who in his only electoral experience has lost councilor's elections. The discourse surrounding the Delhi Assembly elections have so far stayed around Kejriwal, portrayed as an indomitable and sometimes as a victim of the "dirty tricks" of the BJP, in line with Prashant Kishor's election management text book.

THE BJP veteran in Jharkhand Saryu Rai had long been a critic of the party colleague and former chief minister Raghubar Das. Rai would often put down dissent note in the Cabinet decisions. He would even admit lapses in events of alleged hunger deaths in the state. Das had also long been nursing an opportunity to get rid of him and found emboldened with his Maharashtra counterpart Devendra Fadnavis, who had also purged his rivals within the party during ticket distribution. Rai knew his fate, yet patiently awaited the Central leadership to be wiser.

The BJP Central leadership thought of paying a smart game by delaying Rai's candidature from Jamshedpur (West) Assembly seat. The party would have given the nomination by making him seen begging for the ticket, which, in turn, would have pleased Das. Rai didn't play along the script, and drifted away.

An old hand in politics, Rai had rubbed shoulders with the socialists, and counted on Bihar chief

minister Nitish Kumar as his pal. Over the years, he had cultivated an image of an intellectual within the BJP. He was popularly seen honest. In the face of his party insulting him, Rai took flight to an audacious course. He decided to challenge the chief minister Das in his Jamshedpur (West) constituency, which was among the only seven seats in the state in 2014 where the winning candidate had a margin of more than 50,000 votes.

Rai hogged the limelight. He was a victim. People sympathised with an honest and educated man who was dumped by the BJP at the insistence of an arrogant chief minister. Das stayed in Ranchi. He was miser in mixing with the people in his constituency. He was seen distant and inaccessible. The stage was set for the script of a simple man taking on an arrogant drunk on power. 

The script needed an able direction to stage the act on a large canvas. The director flew in from Patna with an army of 300 assistants. He was Prashant Kishor. His army brought in posters, leaflets and wrote slogans. They knocked at the doors to tell stories of an honest man fighting a lonely battle against an arrogant chief minister. In a matter of a few days, Rai was the only topic of discussion. The ripple effect soon electrified the whole state. Das had emerged a villain. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought to cut down the damage. He patted his Cabinet colleague Arjun Munda more frequently in his election rallies. But the damage was done beyond the limits of Modi. 

IN 2015 the Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar had turned a BJP foe in the state Assembly elections. The BJP brimmed with an all conquering passion to win elections. The saffron outfit was facing a grand alliance of Nitish Kumar in the company of the Congress and the RJD. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav had become the best pals. Modi was on an error making spree. He sought to flow the river of funds from the Centre to Patna to turn Bihar into Gujarat. Worse, he hit out at Nitish Kumar, and Prashant Kishor grabbed that to run the campaign to send samples of hair for DNA testing. The BJP's well oiled electoral machinery slipped into the muddy waters of Bihar even before the people cast their votes in the first phase of elections. 

Kishor now has perfected text book to turn the victims in politicians to giant killers. His company I-Pac is currently the best political slogan writers. He in the course of a few months can apply smart touches to the images of his pay masters to the liking of the people. Kejriwal is no more seen an anarchist. The Delhi chief minister in the course of a few months, Kishor came on board unofficially with Aam Admi Party (AAP) around August, last year, has been smiling from thousands of his pictures dotting the national capital. 

Kishor has worked on the image makeover of Kejriwal. The I-Pac workers are knocking at the doors of the people to sell the story of governance. They are selling the dream that Delhi in another five years would become a place of their aspirations: free of toxic air, classrooms for all the children, and healthcare for patients.     

Delhi Assembly elections: Data drift holds cues

Predicting poll outcomes by all accounts is a perilous job. Elections are analysed on past trends. Electorates have proven wiser than pundits more often. They aren't prisoners of the past, as they script history elections after elections. Amid the maddening electioneering, data stay firm with serenity, inviting political strategists to steer narratives to help their masters for smart politics. Data for Delhi suggest the air in the city smells of a cliffhanger of the poll outcome. 

THE ruling Aam Admi Party (AAP) had weaved a magical spell in 2015. Political rivals of the incumbent chief minister Arvind Kejriwal were left shell-shocked with the final scoreboard. That was 67-3 and a naught for the Congress. The BJP had the worst tally. The saffron outfit still bears the taunt. Climbing from an abyss like situation of the single digit figure five years ago to go past the half way mark of 35 would indeed be an unprecedented somersault. For AAP, it will equally be the groundswell of popular anger to slump from the level of 67 to 30s or less would be quite a fall with thud. 

The AAP isn't just another political outfit. The party was born after Anna Hazare made the political air of Delhi pregnant with negativism during 2012-13. Negativism midwifed anarchism. Kejriwal proved an undisputed icon of the politics of anarchism. His foes were left guilt-stricken, as they bent backwards to prove their credentials of honesty and probity in public life. They vowed to innovate and herald an honest and people friendly governance. The tribe of Sheila Dikshit, Harsh Vardhan and Kiran Bedi searched for wood when their boats had already sunk.   

The 2015 scoreboard read: AAP 54.3 per cent vote share and 67 Assembly seats; BJP 32.3 per cent vote share and 3 Assembly seats; and the Congress 9.7 per cent vote share and zero Assembly seats.

But that wasn't the maiden electoral venture of AAP in politics. Kejriwal cut off his umbilical chord with his godfather Anna Hazare to contest the December 2013 Assembly polls. The cadre of the AAP wasn't yet properly built. The party was still sloganeering. 

The 2013 scoreboard read: AAP 29.5 per cent vote share and 28 Assembly seats; BJP 33 per cent vote share and 31 Assembly seats; and the Congress 24.6 per cent vote share and eight Assembly seats.

In  span of a few months, Kejriwal built the cadre for AAP, with donations pouring from the affluent class within the country and abroad, helping him to maintain an army of well paid functionaries. With the likes of Kumar Vishwas, Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav leading the most vicious attacks on the mainstream political parties, Kejriwal strode as the alternative politics warrior, swearing to slay the rivals in the electoral battlefield. The Congress fell for the trap, and helped Kejriwal become chief minister. That bloated the persona of Kejriwal further, and soon he didn't need the Congress crutches. He read the politics well, and played the victim card to the hilt.

People flocked to Kejriwal, with 54.3 per cent vote share in 2015. His rivals turned into pygmies. The new political icon was born. But within a few months, drift set in the Kejriwal camp, as all those who bloated him into an extraordinary exponent of alternative politics parted ways after much breast-beating. 

TWO years later, the AAP faced the litmus test to repeat the magical spell of 2015. The BJP had been in power in the municipal corporation of Delhi for a decade, completing two full terms. The AAP cadre was mobilised to oust the BJP from the MCD, which, incidentally, has over 90 per cent connect with the people on a daily basis. The BJP was up against significant anti-incumbency. The BJP chief Amit Shah sought shelter in simple strategy; he just told the incumbent Councillors that they should climb the political ladder and focus on contesting the next Assembly elections. The BJP fielded fresh crop of the party workers.

The 2017 municipal elections' scoreboard read: AAP 26 per cent vote share and 49 seats; BJP 37 per cent vote share and 181 seats; and the Congress 21 per cent vote share and 31 seats.     

From 54.3 per cent vote share in 2015, AAP came down to 26 per cent; the BJP after staying firm with 33 per cent (2013) and 32.3 per cent (2015) rose to 37 per cent; and the Congress made a smart recovery from an embarrassing 9.7 per cent (2015) to 21 per cent. 

In 2017 again the AAP got another jolt. The outfit had found fertile ground in Punjab, and was seen on course to wrest power from Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine. The Delhi drift had its own parallel in Punjab for AAP. The Congress' old horse Captain Amarinder Singh strode high to leave AAP huffing and puffing at distant second.             

PEOPLE undeniably have made distinctions between local and national elections. Chhatishgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand have shown that the electorate can with ease make distinct choices in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. In Odisha, the electorate cast votes simultaneously for Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, and showed preferences for Narendra Modi in New Delhi and Navin Patnaik in Bhubaneshwar.  

Still, the data are significant, for Delhi appears on a certain course. The BJP swept the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, with the perfect scoreboard of 7-0. The 2019 endorsed the previous scorecard, with scales going higher.

The 2014 scoreboard read: AAP 32.90 per cent vote share and zero seat; BJP 46.40 per cent vote share and seven Lok Sabha seats; and the Congress 15.10 per cent vote share and zero seat. 

The BJP had seen a negative swing of about 14 per cent in the 2015 Assembly elections. The AAP correspondingly registered over 21 per cent of positive swing, mostly gaining at the expense of the Congress. 

 The 2019 scoreboard read: AAP 18 per cent vote share and zero seat; BJP 56.58 per cent vote share and seven Lok Sabha seats; and the Congress 18 per cent vote share and zero seat.

For BJP, the scores in recent elections are 33 per cent (2013), 46.40 per cent (2014), 32.3 per cent (2015), 37 per cent (2017), 56.58 per cent (2019). In the five recent polls, the BJP hasn't gone down 32.3 per cent even when the party arguably shot in the foot by fielding an ex-cop Kiran Bedi in 2015. 

The AAP in contrast has seen wild swing of vote share from 18 per cent (2019) to 54.3 per cent in 2015. The graph is surely not steady. The AAP, in fact, came third in 2019. 

The 2015 elections in Delhi was a watershed moment. The BJP saw 14 per cent vote share knocked away in the face of the magical spell of AAP. Delhi was high on romance in 2015. The level of romance was two per cent higher in 2019, with adoration for a different entity. 

The BJP's worst case scenario could be another 14 per cent drift, which may leave the saffron outfit still with 42 per cent popular votes. To level, the AAP will need 24 per cent of the positive swing from 2019. And, that would surely be reckoned a daunting task.    

Delhi may throw a tantalizingly cliffhanger election outcome on February 11.

Bravo Kejriwal, but buck stops with you

DELHI chief minister Arvind Kejriwal deserves all the plaudits, for he's making the right noise against pollution. Union Minister for Environment and Forest Prakash Javdekar is worth yawn, if not derision, for ticking off Kejriwal for doing politics over pollution. Tight lid over Delhi's gas chamber has now firmly been clasped. National Capital Region (NCR) is gasping for breath. Executives have shown thumbs to Supreme Court and Rule of Law. Turning deaf ears to orders of the apex court against instruments of pollution is now a policy and administrative habit. Could the Right to clean air become a clarion call in the mainstream political discourse?

An Una-Delhi journey lasts not more than four hours. Foothills of the mighty Himalaya astonishingly have the worst air. The city spaces soak in fumes and thick dust whipped up by vehicles. Only a few kilometers earlier in the descent, Himachal Pradesh stays in the lap of pristine nature. Slipping into the vast expanse of Punjab and Haryana in the Winter months, farm fields on fire and smouldering embers give a stunning sight shock. A few minutes in the open turn eyes irritable and throat soar even while locals continue their chores nonchalantly. Closer to Delhi border, thick blanket of smog take the horizon with frightening proportions. Possibly, journey from heaven to hell lasts only a few hours.  

People in northern parts of India have seemingly made peace with their fate to co-exist in the blanket of dust and fumes. That remains a constant in life notwithstanding change of seasons. Slowing of wind speed and dip in temperature only worsen the prevailing battered air. Stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana coupled with mass hysteria to burn firecrackers sent the air in the NCR to the abyss. Law of hypocrisy shifts focus on others, while dimming own complicity. Farmers, thus, in Haryana and Punjab are currently the whipping boys in the popular narrative of the national capital region.   

Stubble burning before the Rabi crop season has defied all measures of the government. Doles of incentives and sticks with police actions have yielded no results. Farmers in Punjab and Haryana have, incidentally, lit more this year than previously. From harvesting of Kharif crops to the onset of Rabi season, farmers have a small window to clear their agricultural land. Mechanised farming isn't yet the hallmark of Indian farmers, with hands in plenty to do the jobs, which could, otherwise, have been done by machines. Subsidies to farmers to buy machines to harvest their crops have found least takers. Farmers feel least enthused with prospects of machines lying unused for most of the year. With 80 per cent of the farm land holding less than four acres, the policy thrust to extend subsidies to individual farmers could only have been worked by the babus in the country.     

NITI Aayog had commissioned a study on stubble burning, which three years ago submitted the papers, with recommendations that the farmers be incentivised for not burning crop residues along with long term roadmap for setting up infrastructure to process the biomass with the involvement of the private players. The studied solution roadmap, sadly, remains tucked away from cognitive attention of the policy makers. 

The Narendra Modi government only a few weeks ago unveiled enhanced Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for Rabi crops. The government with MSP increase wants farmers to grow more foodgrains. Ironically, India is a foodgrain surplus country, while there are few takers for the export. A huge pile rots, while rodents feast on them. Intermediaries make fortune out of the MSP driven grain production and its further pushing into the monstrous public food distribution system, accounting one-twentieth of the Budget of the country. Farmers survive for another year, slipping into firm grip of village money-lenders, while intermediaries fatten. If financial strain wasn't enough to break their bones, they also face with the prospects of Haryana and Punjab becoming the cancer bowls of the country. 

India Gate lost to smog.

DELHI by all accounts is a policy sterile city. It has exploded with population after India's partition in 1947. First, the city hosted the migrants from eastern and western Pakistan. Later, the Kashmiris descended. Afterwards, the pulls of economy drove millions of people from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and hilly states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh to the national capital. Many came for government and public sector jobs, with Centre anchoring headquarters of almost all the PSUs in the small confines of the city space. Delhi alone, unofficially, is now staring at a population close to 30 million. Rising wave of population drove enterprising builder-politician-bureaucrats nexus to squat on public lands to carve out colonies, which from beginning boasted of sub-human conditions.

Delhi is a city of construction. Buildings get demolished to pave way for fresh constructions. Mass of dusts swirls in the air for want of enforcement of building construction norms. World's most dense city generates more than 10,000 metric tonnes of solid waste daily, half being the organic waste. Only 10 per cent of the waste is processed. Rest is dumped at landfill sites or burnt. Burning of leaves and garbage in Delhi was banned many years ago. But people in Delhi know well that laws are made to be read only in papers.

Vehicular population may, arguably, leave behind its human counterpart. That's incumbent for a city of livelihoods. Yet, Delhi has added least infrastructure after the 2010 Commonwealth games to speed up traffic. The mass transport system, first growing leaps and bounds with whole-hearted support to Delhi Metro by the Sheila Dikshit dispensations till 2013, slowed afterward, with buck largely stopping with the Kejriwal government in the city. Ring Rail in Delhi has now gone idle, with the city government paying no attention to repeated pleas of the Ministry of Railways to provide linkages with Metro stations and Bus stops.              

CHILDREN in Delhi schools must write letters to "Captain uncle" and "Khattar Uncle". They should also write letters to Kejriwal uncle, for Delhi government has only taken cosmetic steps to curb causes of pollution in the past few years. Yet, Kejriwal must be lauded for politics over pollution. That helps bring the discourse to the center-stage of popular consciousness.

A thug state

"I find the prohibitionist a negative person. To ban drinking has as much chance of success as an attempt to ban sex. One unfortunate outcome of prohibitionism anywhere in the world is that it promotes hypocrisy as well as disrespect for the law," wrote Cedric Day, a British bureaucrat, who worked in India in 1960s.

In Cedric Day's descriptions, Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal should be outright negative persons. But, yet, Kumar can well take refuge in the fact that a large number of women for years had been pleading him for curbs on drunken ruffians in the state. 

No such alibi exists for Kejriwal. That a few elites began loud-talks of toxic Delhi air was reason enough for him to latch on an opportunity to host another event, and engage people on a large scale in a mass hysteria. The darling of television sensed that an event affecting most of the people in Delhi would draw curtain on his fulsome failure on all the grand promises he made to grab power. And, thus, Delhi is hosting the spectacle of the second phase of "Odd and Even scheme" for four-wheeled vehicles.

MITHILESH Kumar (name changed), who stays in Vasundhara area of Ghaziabad,

works in Delhi, and has no option but to commute in his car. The nearest Metro from his home is about seven km away, and no convenient mode to complete this last mile connectivity is there, which explains his bond with the car. 

But the first day of the second phase of "Odd and Even" scheme made his "even" car ineligible to hit the roads. So, he called an Ola cab, and an SMS buzzed his cell phone.

"...3 times peak time charge is applicable on this booking...," read the Ola message. In a hurry, he did not read the message, and rode the cab to his office. But the driver's demand and simultaneous Ola message asking him to hand over Rs 994 left him gaping. And, then he read the first message.

Yet, he did not understand "3 times of the peak charges". The driver cleared his head. "Since there is a massive demand and supply mismatch for cabs due to "Odd and Even" scheme, the formula is arrived at of three times more than peak charges. It could be much higher if demand is more...," he expounded the formula. 

Mithilesh Kumar's car stayed at home, but he rode a four-wheeled vehicle only, and was fleeced three times more money than he normally would have paid. The "Odd and Even" scheme looted him. Yet, Delhi did not see less number of cars on his account. 

Incidentally, he has paid road tax for 15 years in advance. But Kejriwal has not yet said a word if the road tax would be returned, since freedom to ply on roads has been curbed. Kejriwal, in fact, has not yet answered allegations levelled against him and his government in the purported sting operation where palms were greased with crisp papers embossed with Gandhi's image and singed by RBI Governor for distributing CNG stickers (exempt from "Odd and Even").

ASHOK Kumar Walia is a bachelor and a doctor by profession. He had been Minister for PWD, Health, and Urban Development during the 15 long years of the Sheila Dikshit government in Delhi. 

Once he went to Tokyo. There he saw flyovers dotting the city all around. He came back, and told his officials that Delhi needed flyovers. The road congestion was so long and painful, that most of the motorists would be stuck at traffic signals for 15 to 20 minutes. Walia began building flyovers. The Supreme Court in the meantime mandated migration of public transport to the CNG mode. Delhi became better and cleaner.

Walia went to Tokyo again after a gap of about a decade. He saw flyovers over flyovers. He enquired from his hosts, "why do you need flyovers over flyovers?".

"The original flyovers were choking due to rise in vehicular population, and, hence, new flyovers over them were needed," quipped the Japanese host.

The Delhi minister came back and told his officials the need for flyovers over flyovers. An elevated ring road over the existing ring road was planned. 

But Walia and Sheila Dikshit by then had become unwanted in a city where the Gandhian activist Anna Hazare and motley of television channels glibly allowed Arvind Kejriwal to become an answer to all the ills afflicting Delhi.   

The elite camp-follower of Kejriwal glibly argue that many western countries have also tried such a formula to curb pollution. But no such people has yet stopped using four-wheeled vehicles to commute to their work places themselves. 

That Delhi has a remarkable elasticity to dip in their pockets to buy a second car is a fact not worth repeating. Such a plan failed miserably in Mexico. And, Delhi is more closer to Mexico than London surely is lost out to the logical minds of the camp-followers of Kejriwal.

A tourist from Madhya Pradesh was arguably the first person to be challaned on the commencement of the second phase of "Odd and Even" scheme. He told the cops that he had not known of such a thing since he had been driving for a couple of days. But he had to part with Rs 2,000. 

HE may have rightly thought that sometimes the state is a thug, and encourages people to become a bigger thug.

Breaking stereotypes

A year has passed by since Narendra Modi commanded historic majority to come to power in New Delhi. In the year gone, he took ‘baby steps’ to translate his dreams and promises to people to transform India – socially and economically.  

His economic template is no more different than what Manmohan Singh and his man – P Chidambaram – had pursued. In two full Budgets that his government has presented so far, Modi has not yet unveiled a single step, which could bring in fundamental change to the fate of the country. At best he has been an undisputed king of marketing and sales to re-package schemes and policies pursued by his immediate predecessor to give them the energy and direction which they had lacked.

The book is titled – The enabler Narendra Modi. The reason for such a title is that Modi has given sufficient hints in his one year in office that he is no admirer of India being a welfare state. He has sought to nudge India onto an enabling path. For decades, India stood firm as a welfare state and billions of dollars were poured in hundred of welfare schemes. 

But India’s welfare template suffered from innumerable holes, which defeated the very idea of such schemes, as a class pocketed the wealth meant for the poor of the country. Modi believes as seen in his actions that people need to stand on their feet and they should be provided with enabling platform to transform their lives socially and economically.

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In the chapter, Herd Breaker, this book reminds the ruling party led by Modi of reasons why the people broke free of several political stereotypes to give a mandate not seen for two and a half decades. Millions of people living on the margins defied the caste identities to back the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Such people are dreamy and have a habit not to give long rope to the ruling party to fulfill the promises. Modi has unveiled a few of the steps to address to the aspiration of such people, but they seem too futuristic to give immediate tangible benefits to his admirers on the ground.

This book also has a chapter, New Delhi Caucus, wherein Modi’s most difficult challenge is listed and detailed. India is a vast country but irony of the country has been the clout of the ‘New Delhi Caucus’ consisting of bureaucrats, political class, middle men, civil society and judicial activists, which has subverted dreams of teeming millions. Modi has steadfastly gone after the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) since assuming office and has also sought to correct the ways the judiciary functions in the country. But he has not weeded out the ‘New Delhi Caucus’ completely, which risks his government becoming no different than his predecessors. 

Political opponents of Modi privately admit that he is perched as emperor of Indian democracy. They argue that by all accounts, Modi has surpassed the stature of Indira Gandhi of 1971 when she was India's most powerful leader and had unveiled a single party rule in the country. Modi's position is both ominous and providential. His position could be ominous, because he may throttle dissent and cause serious damage to Indian democracy. At the same time it could also be providential, because he can guide India onto a new path and liberate shackled potential of the country.

Politically speaking Modi is India's first non-Congress Prime Minister. It may sound odd, because there were seven Prime Ministers, who headed non-Congress governments. Even Atal Bihari Vajpayee of BJP was Prime Minister for about six years. Yet, Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister in the true sense.

It must be noted that Congress in India is not just a political party, but a political culture. And that culture was seeded deep into Indian democracy by Indira Gandhi. Her stature was such in her prime time that she ensured Constitution Amendment (42nd) to give India the character of a welfare state. All her successors bore her imprints in their statecraft afterwards.

Even while PV Narsimha Rao ably assisted by his Finance Minister Manmohan Singh sought to force open the window to the world, which was further carried forward by Vajpayee, they could not lay their hands on a formidable electoral template. Both were consequently rejected by the people. They suffered from economic contradictions. They wanted to write new chapters in Indian economy and polity yet could not shun ideological imprints of Indira Gandhi fully.  

Rao was a Congress man, but had vision to think beyond the Nehru-Gandhi bank of party ideas. Vajpayee was an RSS man, but had co-opted socialists, who were non-Congressmen for just namesake. Vajpayee was a minister in the Morarji Desai Cabinet. The old man was a hardcore Congress man and rival of Indira Gandhi in her early political days. Vajpayee propped up VP Singh as Prime Minister also with the support of the Left parties. VP Singh had spent his life in Congress and had quit the party to head Janata Dal, which was essentially a loose confederation of provincial caste chieftains. Vajpayee in his thoughts was centrist, with little leaning to the right. 

It's pertinent to examine why Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister in the true sense. And for that matter it will equally be important to understand what Congress means as a political culture. Congress essentially is a political culture wherein the power of decision making is centralized. Popularly it is called a 'High Command' culture. This bears strong imprints in the statecraft. Even though India is a Union of states, with much thrust on federalism, Indian statecraft essentially is of centralized planning and decision making. The Centre decides what the states should do. The Centre decides how much money states should spend and under what heads. The Centre decides what laws states should have. 

The easiest illustration of this is in Indian Parliament enacting a law on acquisition of land in 2013, which was actually a political legislation thrust upon the government due to Rahul Gandhi's obsession to do politics of land. Land is a state subject, and all state governments have their own respective policies or laws on acquisition of land. Then what was the need for the Centre to enact a law on land and whose amendments Modi is desperately seeking? Modi believes it has forced a lock-down on development. 

If not for Rahul Gandhi ambushing Bhatta-Parsaul to throw his weight behind relatively rich farmers of western Uttar Pradesh, India may have continued with the British time law on acquisition of land. The basic idea is that the Centre essentially lacks trust in state governments to be fair in dealing with its people. And that must sound ludicrous, because the state governments have more connect with the people than the Centre. 

Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister, because he has not been touched by the ideology and culture of the grand old party. He was chief minister of Gujarat for about 12 years with strong majority in the state Assembly and he never needed to bend even little to allow Congress to cast its imprints on him.

This culture essentially is distribution of wealth, centralization of decision making, and sycophancy. Through the welfare core of the statecraft, Congress envisaged distribution of wealth among the poor directly. This subsequently birthed politics of poverty. This book has a chapter on ‘Politics of poverty’ wherein it has been socially, economically and politically mapped for its extent of distortions. This had the collateral damage to Indian ethos in the form of rampant corruption, which spread its tentacles in all walks of lives. 

The mode to distribute wealth to the poor fell prey to the cunning crop of teeming millions who had connections everywhere to pocket at least half the money transferred by the Centre. They infected the political class, judiciary, police, and civil society with their vice. And they gave birth to a corrupt society.

Vajpayee should not be counted among the non-Congress Prime Ministers purely for the reasons because he was clueless to clamp down on corruption and the Congress' statecraft on centralization of decision making exercise. Other six Prime Ministers -- Desai, Charan Singh, VP Singh, Chandrashekhar, HDS Deve Gowda, and IK Gujral -- were either from the Congress having crossed over to other parties in search for greener pastures or were propped up to the post as part of the trick game of the grand old party, which included Choudhary Charan Singh and Chandrashekhar. 

In the chapter, Modi’s 3B, this book graphically captures Prime Minister’s ‘Bold, Brazen, and Bulldozer’ aspect of administration. Modi in a few months after his inauguration shut down the Planning Commission, which by default had subverted the idea of India being a federal democracy. All chief ministers as a matter of routine would line up each year to get their annual plans approved by the Planning Commission. Modi has in place inaugurated NITI Aayog wherein the chief ministers head sub-groups on various subjects.

But most importantly Modi assured from the ramparts of the Red Fort, that he would 'neither take bribe nor allow others to do the same (naa khaaoonga, naa khane doonga)'. No Prime Minister before him acknowledged the cancer of corruption and owned up responsibility to crush it down. A year has passed by since the inauguration of Modi and the economy has resumed its journey on the upward trajectory, but the real-estate prices in Delhi and satellite towns around have slumped by at least 20 per cent. The real-estate in Delhi zone thrived because the black money was in ample supply. The tap appears to have been turned off and there is tangible effect on the grounds. 

Rao and Vajpayee surely put India on high economic growth path. But their times also saw India coming under the firm grip of Maoists. The Red Corridor dotted India right from the border with Nepal to deep forests of Chhatisgarh. The Government of India officially admits 80 districts in the country being in strong grip of Maoists. The Left Wing Extremism spread its influence among poor tribal and Dalit. They gained followers and sympathizers, because poor stayed on margins of the society and the economic growth, which surpassed nine per cent mark in Vajpayee's time, had no effect on their lives. They could not access those benefits on which the Central government spent billions of dollars each year.

In Modi, they sensed a rare opportunity to make an electoral choice to break free from shackles of self-limiting social and economic conditions. Modi is now an emperor of Indian democracy, because he broke the caste and community herds, who by habit and conditioning participated in elections in stereotyped manners. Modi broke many stereotypes and he has to consolidate and further cement his political path.

There is a clear merit in Modi being compared with Indira Gandhi. They share similar political clouts, but differ significantly in their socio-economic outlooks. In the chapter, ‘Politics of poverty’, this book has sought to put the statecraft of Indira Gandhi and her successors in perspective.

... (Read more in the book The enabler Narendra Modi)

Return of anarchists

A week is long time in politics, the intellectually gifted British Premier Harold Wilson had said about 75 years ago. On January 21 and 22, the new star of Indian democracy -- Arvind Kejriwal -- improved upon Wilson's thought. Even two days are quite long time in politics .

And in those two days Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) discovered that it's biggest campaigner, the media, was now actually baying for its blood. The trigger, off course, was the "Yes, I am an anarchist" claim of the wonder-boy of Indian politics.

Indeed, anarchism as a socio-political platform had long been subsumed by the communists. After the Bolshevik revolution, the Russian rulers had defeated them in some here and there wars. But the anarchists around the world continue to keep raising their voices particularly in Europe and America. That they have set their feet on the Indian soil is clearly a revelation. 

If not for a pattern, Kejriwal's declaration would have been ignored for an off the cuff remark. But a week earlier, his colleague, Prashant Bhushan, in an interview with The Asian Age, lamented that democracy in India is "minimal". That more than 70 per cent of eligible voters cast their votes in elections passed off as "minimal" democracy for Bhushan allows a pattern to take a shape. This lawyer of quite an eminence, who believes that there should be a referendum on deployment of security forces in Maoist affected areas and Jammu and Kashmir, is a theorist and along with Yogendra Yadav forms the ideological backbone of the AAP. 

And for that matter, one needs to revisit the anarchist school of thought, which took birth in as early as six century BC. One may also be surprised to know that Jesus Christ was considered among the initial advocate of anarchism. Conceptually, anarchism is a political philosophy that advocates stateless societies, with stress on self-governed voluntary institutions, and, for their followers, state is an unnecessary, undesirable and harmful institution.

The AAP's manifesto states that the MP/MLA Area Local Development Fund should be scrapped and that should be given to the Mohalla (locality) committee. A crucial fallback to anarchist thought could be seen here and for that matter Kejriwal's self-description was not an off the cuff remark. 

Zuangzi, who was among the initial anarchist theorist, believed "a petty thief is put in jail but a great brigand becomes the ruler of a nation". He must have been read by Kejriwal and Bhushan with much delight, as AAP's pamphlets hint a throwback to Zuangzi's thoughts. 

More important is Pierre-Joseph Proudhan, a French and first self-proclaimed anarchist, who published

"What is property" in 1840. His theory of "spontaneous order" wherein organisation emerges through peaceful evolution imposing its own idea of order without a central coordinator against the wills of individuals will find a parallel in the agitation of Somnath Bharti, Delhi's law minister, whom the AAP has stoutly defended against his racist and unlawful coercion of people of African nations. 

Even Kejriwal, when asked by this blogger in early 2013 on accusations against him that he had been spreading too much of negativity in the society without offering a platform to channel people's anger, had stated that "people will spontaneously throw an alternative". That did happen on December 8 and proved him right, but also cements his strong belief in the idea of anarchism. 

Indeed, it's a question worth pondering why people are so much in love with veiled anarchists at least in Delhi. Immediate answer would be that the existing political class had left a lot of political vacuum for new people with an idea of alternative politics to fill in.   

But was not India the land of socialism where the communists could not expand beyond Bengal, Kerala, Tripura and fringe areas of Punjab. That the socialism was so powerful as a political tool, it was enshrined in the Constitutions of India too can not be forgotten .

The political socialism, arguably in the Hindi heartland, emerged strongly, but is surely now gasping for breath. South of Vindhyanchal, politics took shelter behind linguistic identity, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.   

The political heirs of socialist Ram Manohar Lohiya were Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh and Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar. That Viswanath Pratap Singh showed up with a little cameo by arming the political socialism with Mandal identity effectively made the campaign caste centric, and alienated the upper castes, whose leaders, had spearheaded the march of socialism in Indian democracy till then.

Later, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad further shrunk caste based socialism into family owned political enterprises. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, as many as seven members of the Mulayam clan will be contesting elections, while his son, Akhilesh Yadav, and brother, Shivpal Singh Yadav, lead the state. For Lalu, his politics begins with self and ends with wife; and in between his brothers-in-law too appear.

And for that matter, the political class left a huge space for alternative politics; and that being occupied by anarchists is a telling blow to the delivery of the state in the recent years in terms of services and policies.

In the 19th and 20th century, anarchists were organizationally and ideologically crushed by the communists. But the Left, baring China and Russia, is fast becoming a relic of the gone era and that too for a good reason. The Congress in India is at least in its orientation a socialist and centrist party, while the BJP has over the years metamorphosed into a giant ideological body subsuming the best of the socialism while leaning on capitalism. And they being the only two national parties have to face the challenge of anarchists in the coming years.

President Pranab Mukherjee and BJP patriarch L K Advani are the only two political persons alive who can

understand ramifications of anarchists raising their heads in backyard. President knows that the challenge is serious and a threat to India's national interest. Thus he chose the occasion of the address to the nation on the eve of the Republic Day to warn the people against "popular anarchists".

The anarchists were defeated by the collective might of the communists in Europe and Russia. Now, they have to be defeated by the collective will of the people, for they are status quoist and populist at the expanse of the socio-economic growth.  

The meltdown

"Bapu, the government spends a fortune to ensure that you live a simple and austere life," Sarojini Naidu had told Mahatma Gandhi sometime during the British rule. That, of course, may not be known to the howling brigade, who have clearly taken the borrowed right of freedom of speech and expression from the people for granted.    

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh hoped that history will be kinder to him than the contemporary media and Opposition. That will be known only in future, but would the history be kinder to Indian journalism of past few weeks, particularly in Delhi, must be a subject of debate now and right now. Because in the last four weeks, Indian media -- TV, wholly; and print, substantially -- have forgotten that their primary role is to report and critique.

An editor ranking journalist opined that BJP mascot Narendra Modi is finished and Aam Admi Party led by Arvind Kejriwal would make strong impact in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. This would hardly concern, for each person is the king of his mental faculty, but what followed then should alarm most.

When asked if the same ferocious critiquing was being done for Arvind Kejriwal as had been done to Modi, the journalist startled with the reply. "No. We are not doing that to Kejriwal. He should get a chance. People are tired of corruption," he quipped, allowing a semblance of Aam Admi to take over his journalistic senses. 

He is not alone in his opinion that Kejriwal should get a chance. One TV editor tweeted that Kejriwal should get 100 days at least before he is judged. Other TV editors have given ample demonstration, that they would love to pamphleteer for AAP.

John Simpson, the famed BBC broadcaster, had chronicled and critically reviewed British journalism during two World Wars in his celebrated book "Unreliable sources". He found both shallow and brilliance in those period among the British journalists. 

If Simpson were to undertake a relatively simple task to review Indian journalism, particularly those in Delhi, for a period, say, four recent weeks, one may hazard a guess that he would find majority of the media houses with their pants down. 

AAP leader and lawyer Prashant Bhushan welcoming Kamal Mitra Chenoy, a Leftist, in his party.

Simpson would easily find that Delhi media were not only taking sides of AAP but were the campaigner of this party. Thus, the newspapers splashed AAP coverage, disproportionate to what it could have actually commanded, and thereby disadvantaged its political rivals, say Congress and BJP.

Furthermore, the constant drum-beating for AAP in TV channels without seriously examining its policies and in fact demanding to know them did succeed in establishing the party in Delhi, which has 99 per cent cable penetration. People discovered after Kejriwal was sworn in that his party favoured referendum on deployment of security forces in Jammu and Kashmir and also in Maoist affected areas and that this outfit believed in subsidising the middle class at the expanse of the poor and so on.

In fact, on the first day of the iconic fast-unto-death undertaken by Aana Hazare at Jantar Mantar in April 2011, one TV reporter too had joined the Gandhian by keeping fast and working too. But his news channel did not know that the reportage was thus compromised and hence he was not sacked, as would have been the case with any professional organisations. Kejriwal then used to drum his support among reporters and liberally employed journalists at his Public Cause and Research Foundation (PCRF) NGO. And thus Kejriwal infiltrated media in a way, that no one could imagine.

And so we see a daily overdose of AAP in print and TV channels. So, the same story wearing the cloth of news appears that Kejriwal refuses security, launches helpline numbers, etc. Initially, they were falling over to brand Kejriwal another Mahatma Gandhi being the icon of simplicity, as he chose only a 10-room duplex for his office-cum-residence. If not for the social media, which reminded them of Mamata Banerjee, Manik Sarkar and Manohar Parrikar, just to name a few, living in much smaller homes, Delhi media would have by now certified Kejriwal another Gandhi.

"Bapu, the government spends a fortune to ensure that you live a simple and austere life," Sarojini Naidu had told Mahatma Gandhi sometime during the British rule. That, of course, may not be known to the howling brigade, who have clearly taken the borrowed right of freedom of speech and expression from the people for granted.    

Another brick in the wall

Hero worshiping and myth building are historically intrinsic to Indian psyche. And much of the air-thumping in Delhi is part of a pattern. That the people so joyously are soaking themselves in the opium of delusion is also quite normal and those having a taste of history know it well. 

Those who suffer from the disease called "short memory" may just recall a "hawai-chappal" and cotton

sari wearing woman in Mamata Banerjee uprooting and trampling over the more than three decades of the Left rule in West Bengal not long ago. She and the people of West Bengal had made history then.

Banerjee took just a little over a couple of years after the Nandigram killings to lay the graveyard of the Left rule led by the CPI (M). She rode on the slogan of "Ma, Mati, Manush". That the urban intelligentsia now seeks to distance themselves from her, who holds on to power with her strength in rural Bengal, is another story.   

Arvind Kejriwal, an NGO wallah before April 2011, head-hunted Anna Hazare to give legitimacy to the Jan Lokpal Bill, drafted by him in cohort with the ultra-judiciary activist Prashant Bushan. And the Gandhian did not disappoint the former tax officer and parted ways with him but before that he gifted the self-stated angry man the key to power in Delhi.

Kejriwal is now sworn in as chief minister and among others he has also taken oath not to be vindictive (maen kisi dwesh ke bhavana se kaam nahi karunga). This makes him quite a hypocrite, for he has been trumpeting that he would send the Congress ministers to jail. His sound bytes since December 8 have been sliced with vindictiveness only.

The lens of hypocrisy has not yet been applied on Kejriwal in any serious manner. About a year back, he began admitting with journalists, including this blogger, that Anna Hazare had been managed by the Congress. But for public consumption he has created a facade that he still worships Anna and that those close to the Gandhian have made a wall for him to block him directly connecting with him. He invites the accusation of being a hypocrite for being untruthful about his relations with Anna Hazare. 

Neither Anna is Mahatma Gandhi nor Kejriwal is a Nehru, as the social media paid volunteers of Aam Aadi Party would like emotional Delhi'ites to believe. 

Those who are blessed with good memory may recall that a couple of days after the people in Delhi had voted, Hazare in his presser reiterated that he had not been convinced by the explanation given by Kejriwal about the funds raised in his name. Anna also maintained that he could be dragged to court because of Kejriwal, who without his authorization sold SIM Card Scheme in his name. That was just four days before the Delhi verdict became known. And Anna had also shot a letter in which he made quite a lot of veiled accusations of financial impropriety to Kejriwal.

So, the man who gives certificate of being corrupt to others has not been able to convince Hazare on funds collected in his name. But Kejriwal, who is apparently that marketing wizard who has sold combs to bald men, has been treated by media with kid-gloves. That would be quite a generous understatement, as media was the biggest campaigner for Kejriwal and his party. In fact, editors of TV channels took pride to spend a few hours at Jantar Mantar during Anna agitation and to share later that they had had feelings of Tahrir Square in the narrow strip on the Parliament street. One of them wrote a book, with judgments that Anna was another Gandhi.

In those days, it was India Against Corruption (IAC) and there was a core committee, which included a lot of men, including Kejriwal. One of them has a few questions but is apparently shy to come into public.

His questions is very simple: Where did the money come from to publish Kejriwal's book "Swaraj".

One more question deserves to be added. And that is this -- if Swaraj was printed to be sold at Rs 25 a copy, with the motive of spreading the idea of self-rule, why is it now priced at Rs 150 (English paper book), Rs 100 (Hindi) and Rs 53 (e-book). So, now the social cause has been overtaken by the idea of commercial profit. And if that's so, it's more important to find out the source of fund used in publishing the book. 

But more important is to challenge the ideas to which Kejriwal is sworn to. That a very few have been doing is disturbing. 

Let's rewind to October 2011. One fine afternoon, Kejriwal took the microphone at Jantar Mantar and in his trademark fashion asked the crowd to raise their hands if they agreed to his accusations of about 16 Union ministers being corrupt. He was jury, investigating officer and prosecutor too. And what were the evidences Kejriwal submitted to brand 16 ministers corrupt -- Newspaper clippings. 

The crowd, consisting of 200 people, raised their hands and these ministers were pronounced corrupt. The idea of debate is not whether they are corrupt or honest but the manner to institutionalize crowd. This is not only dangerous but suggests heavy ideological leaning to Maoist thought processes. Even the Taliban could seek brotherhood from them. 

And it's also true that if Maoists opt to fight elections they will win Bastar, which is big enough to be a state, effortlessly.

People in Delhi are eating out of the hands of the handful leaders of AAP. They easily subscribe to their claims of newness in politics and a new approach to governance. Not much of critical faculty appears to have been employed to question these claims.

Seven hundred liters of water free for each family in Delhi! Yes, you have heard it many times to have become dumb to it by now. Is it a novel idea? No, just look at Tamil Nadu and check with the perfectionists (DMK and AIADMK) of this art. Mr Kejriwal, you are treading on quite a beaten track. 

And why should half the population of Delhi, who are quite rich and use 500 liters of water a day to clean their cars, should get it free. And that too when Delhi has no source of water and half the year is at the mercy of Haryana to get it. Why should the people of Uttar Pradesh part with water to let Delhi'ites waste it.

Next -- will regularize unauthorized colonies in six months! Had it been so easy Sheila Dikshit would have done it much earlier. How can you have a regular and legal colony where fire tenders can't enter, where ambulances can't reach in quick time, where there is no space for hospitals, schools and dispensaries and playground, if you think that kids need to play in the evening. Can Kejriwal make people in these colonies demolish their houses to create a minimum 20 per cent free space?      

The manifesto that Kejriwal authored is a recipe for misgovernance and irresponsible politics. In fact, the time has come for the Election Commission to ban such freebies, as they are nothing but open bribery to voters. 

But, yes, the 15 years long rule of the Congress had been akin to a piece of paper burning slowly. And in the end it was a burnt, black paper, which needed just a shove to turn into ash. That's no more a warning to the Congress and rather it's an affirmation that this party has lost another state to a regional party, as had been the case in Bihar, UP, West Bengal.

The BJP had been dismissive about the AAP and woke up quite late to name Dr Harsh Vardhan as chief ministerial candidate. The party, which had given Delhi its first Aam Aadmi as CM in Saheb Singh Verma, has been too defensive. No game can be won if no risk is taken, that the BJP should know and its Delhi leaders would do a world of good to themselves to start believing that they understand the city better than their colleagues in the Central BJP.

A lot of drama has taken place in Delhi since April 2011 and rightly the city has a lot of theaters near Mandi Chowk, including that of the National School of Drama.   

But the biggest challenge that India is now faced is the prospect of the country becoming a nation of litigation and litigants. That the judicial activism has enriched the civilian rights is well-known. But the attempt to establish superiority of judiciary over democracy is a dangerous recipe that the likes of Prashant Bhushan and Kejriwal are proposing.

Ironically, it's democracy that allowed the people living and working out of Ghaziabad in UP to win over Delhi. But the same democracy faces encroachments by a super-judicial bureaucracy, given legitimacy by mob driven leaders.  

However, the legal warriors are underestimating the power of democracy. And for that matter the historic Gettysburg speech should be recalled, which gave the concept of democracy, which has only gained in strength all these years.  

Amid the raging civil war in the America, it's said that Abraham Lincoln had locked

himself in a library for about three weeks. Emerging out of it, he gave the famous Gettysburg address, which lasted two and a half minutes. There he explained the underlying principle of democracy, that it's "for the people, by the people and of the people". 

The power of the people may be underestimated by activists at their own peril, as the blows do come and come very swiftly. 

The gust

"Kitna vote se jeete (by how much votes they won)," asked a man sitting on stairs leading to Hanuman temple near Connaught Place. After giving him a short reply, we hurried past, only to stop to ask ourselves, who the man was. Running back to him, I asked for his name. "Gulshan," he said. "I sit here during day and evening, and sleep in a nearby hospital," he added. Next, I asked "did you vote" to which he said "no, don't have vote". 

He was a beggar. And he was asking about the performance of Aam Admi Party (AAP). 

Quite admittedly, we were shell-shocked. A beggar was curious to know the electoral fate of Arvind Kejriwal's AAP. Looking closely, Gulshan's eyes were yellow. He was wrapped in a torn quilt. There was no hope for life in his eyes. He was one of thousands who eke out their livings at Hanuman temple on the largess of devotees. 

Dance and drum at AAP office

The thought wave went fast back in past and recalled reporting Sheila Dikshit led Delhi government's determined efforts to make the national capital beggar free. That was in the run up to the Commonwealth Games. Then she even wanted to make Delhi a digital city. Also, Delhi a smoking free city. And so many others, all ideas borrowed from European countries, Hong Kong and Singapore. None materialized but left many thinking Dikshit as an apathetic leader.    

In her efforts to make Delhi a world class city, Dikshit forgot that a lot of people lived in the national capital, who were struggling to make their ends meet. And most of them were least bothered about Europe, Hong Kong and Singapore.   

And a lot of youth and women were least bothered about the garland of flyovers too. Because, the man who gave them to Delhi -- Ashok Kumar Walia (a doctor and a bachelor) -- was humbled by a rookie AAP greenhorn Vinod Kumar Binni from Luxmi Nagar Assembly seat. 

Dr Walia was hurt, for his people in the constituency were all that he had in his life. So, he shut in a room for three hours and was seen with tears led swollen eyes by his close aides.

On the way to Hanuman temple, the Connaught Circus was full of broom held by people, who looked hailing from the lower income groups. "These are all BSP men and women," I could not resist quipping. The BSP had polled 14 per cent votes in 2008 Delhi elections and five years later the rank and cadre were swept away by the Kejriwal magic. 

The broom that swept away the Congress in Delhi.

Clearly, a hell lot of people sensed that they did not figure in the scheme of things of Dikshit and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Price rise had finally broken all the prides of the middle and lower middle class.

But the Congress' slide from 43 seats to eight is quite a journey worth examination. As it appears, only the Muslims were unimpressed with Kejriwal's broom. So, not only JD (U)'s floater Shoib Iqbal but four Muslim candidates of the Congress too won. 

The Mughal Shah Alam's empire had famously shrunken from Chandni Chowl to Palam in the freezing winter of the dynasty founded by Babur and spread by Akbar. Dikshit, despite enjoying popular support, had shrunken her Delhi to the Lutyen's zone. And it was there that she tried to work her developments.

Shah Alam had seen a gust of Afghan and Maratha invaders in his shrunken Delhi. History revisits many a times, and, later we will know if Dikshit was the last Congress leader to rule Delhi.  

If not for Narendra Modi, Kejriwal would have been sworn in as the chief minister of Delhi. Undoubtedly, Modi blocked the Kejriwal gust to throw the BJP too with the Congress into the political abyss.  

Arguably, the Sunday gust intoxicated the Kejriwal gang. And, on the day of the people's mandate, they began talking of another elections. In their verbal jugglery, they had dished out sweeping comments and generalizations. To bow before the people's mandate is the duty of all political parties and rejecting the mandate by seeking another elections amounts to doubt people's will.   

Is it a French monarchy/. From the window, Kumar Viswas tells crowd updates and then shuts.

In a few days from now the magical debut of AAP in electoral politics will be researched word over. There are hardly any parallel. In 1980s, N T Rama Rao decimated the Congress in just six months. But then he was a popular film star and had cult following. There is no other parallel anywhere in the world. 

But take away Kejriwal, will AAP have any future. None, I guess. AAP is least a political party and more of a carry over of gust released by the powerful lungs of Anna Hazare. Alas, Hazare is a lonely man today. But life is like that. Ideas outgrow minds who birth them. Kejriwal is an idea, which was seeded by Anna, and nourished by anger of teeming millions of people. 

The gust by nature is short-lived. And that's the challenge before Kejriwal. He may recall W B Yeats' those lovely words: "I have spread my dreams under your feet, tread softly because you tread on my dreams".