Another brick in the wall

Hero worshiping and myth building are historically intrinsic to Indian psyche. And much of the air-thumping in Delhi is part of a pattern. That the people so joyously are soaking themselves in the opium of delusion is also quite normal and those having a taste of history know it well. 

Those who suffer from the disease called "short memory" may just recall a "hawai-chappal" and cotton

sari wearing woman in Mamata Banerjee uprooting and trampling over the more than three decades of the Left rule in West Bengal not long ago. She and the people of West Bengal had made history then.

Banerjee took just a little over a couple of years after the Nandigram killings to lay the graveyard of the Left rule led by the CPI (M). She rode on the slogan of "Ma, Mati, Manush". That the urban intelligentsia now seeks to distance themselves from her, who holds on to power with her strength in rural Bengal, is another story.   

Arvind Kejriwal, an NGO wallah before April 2011, head-hunted Anna Hazare to give legitimacy to the Jan Lokpal Bill, drafted by him in cohort with the ultra-judiciary activist Prashant Bushan. And the Gandhian did not disappoint the former tax officer and parted ways with him but before that he gifted the self-stated angry man the key to power in Delhi.

Kejriwal is now sworn in as chief minister and among others he has also taken oath not to be vindictive (maen kisi dwesh ke bhavana se kaam nahi karunga). This makes him quite a hypocrite, for he has been trumpeting that he would send the Congress ministers to jail. His sound bytes since December 8 have been sliced with vindictiveness only.

The lens of hypocrisy has not yet been applied on Kejriwal in any serious manner. About a year back, he began admitting with journalists, including this blogger, that Anna Hazare had been managed by the Congress. But for public consumption he has created a facade that he still worships Anna and that those close to the Gandhian have made a wall for him to block him directly connecting with him. He invites the accusation of being a hypocrite for being untruthful about his relations with Anna Hazare. 

Neither Anna is Mahatma Gandhi nor Kejriwal is a Nehru, as the social media paid volunteers of Aam Aadi Party would like emotional Delhi'ites to believe. 

Those who are blessed with good memory may recall that a couple of days after the people in Delhi had voted, Hazare in his presser reiterated that he had not been convinced by the explanation given by Kejriwal about the funds raised in his name. Anna also maintained that he could be dragged to court because of Kejriwal, who without his authorization sold SIM Card Scheme in his name. That was just four days before the Delhi verdict became known. And Anna had also shot a letter in which he made quite a lot of veiled accusations of financial impropriety to Kejriwal.

So, the man who gives certificate of being corrupt to others has not been able to convince Hazare on funds collected in his name. But Kejriwal, who is apparently that marketing wizard who has sold combs to bald men, has been treated by media with kid-gloves. That would be quite a generous understatement, as media was the biggest campaigner for Kejriwal and his party. In fact, editors of TV channels took pride to spend a few hours at Jantar Mantar during Anna agitation and to share later that they had had feelings of Tahrir Square in the narrow strip on the Parliament street. One of them wrote a book, with judgments that Anna was another Gandhi.

In those days, it was India Against Corruption (IAC) and there was a core committee, which included a lot of men, including Kejriwal. One of them has a few questions but is apparently shy to come into public.

His questions is very simple: Where did the money come from to publish Kejriwal's book "Swaraj".

One more question deserves to be added. And that is this -- if Swaraj was printed to be sold at Rs 25 a copy, with the motive of spreading the idea of self-rule, why is it now priced at Rs 150 (English paper book), Rs 100 (Hindi) and Rs 53 (e-book). So, now the social cause has been overtaken by the idea of commercial profit. And if that's so, it's more important to find out the source of fund used in publishing the book. 

But more important is to challenge the ideas to which Kejriwal is sworn to. That a very few have been doing is disturbing. 

Let's rewind to October 2011. One fine afternoon, Kejriwal took the microphone at Jantar Mantar and in his trademark fashion asked the crowd to raise their hands if they agreed to his accusations of about 16 Union ministers being corrupt. He was jury, investigating officer and prosecutor too. And what were the evidences Kejriwal submitted to brand 16 ministers corrupt -- Newspaper clippings. 

The crowd, consisting of 200 people, raised their hands and these ministers were pronounced corrupt. The idea of debate is not whether they are corrupt or honest but the manner to institutionalize crowd. This is not only dangerous but suggests heavy ideological leaning to Maoist thought processes. Even the Taliban could seek brotherhood from them. 

And it's also true that if Maoists opt to fight elections they will win Bastar, which is big enough to be a state, effortlessly.

People in Delhi are eating out of the hands of the handful leaders of AAP. They easily subscribe to their claims of newness in politics and a new approach to governance. Not much of critical faculty appears to have been employed to question these claims.

Seven hundred liters of water free for each family in Delhi! Yes, you have heard it many times to have become dumb to it by now. Is it a novel idea? No, just look at Tamil Nadu and check with the perfectionists (DMK and AIADMK) of this art. Mr Kejriwal, you are treading on quite a beaten track. 

And why should half the population of Delhi, who are quite rich and use 500 liters of water a day to clean their cars, should get it free. And that too when Delhi has no source of water and half the year is at the mercy of Haryana to get it. Why should the people of Uttar Pradesh part with water to let Delhi'ites waste it.

Next -- will regularize unauthorized colonies in six months! Had it been so easy Sheila Dikshit would have done it much earlier. How can you have a regular and legal colony where fire tenders can't enter, where ambulances can't reach in quick time, where there is no space for hospitals, schools and dispensaries and playground, if you think that kids need to play in the evening. Can Kejriwal make people in these colonies demolish their houses to create a minimum 20 per cent free space?      

The manifesto that Kejriwal authored is a recipe for misgovernance and irresponsible politics. In fact, the time has come for the Election Commission to ban such freebies, as they are nothing but open bribery to voters. 

But, yes, the 15 years long rule of the Congress had been akin to a piece of paper burning slowly. And in the end it was a burnt, black paper, which needed just a shove to turn into ash. That's no more a warning to the Congress and rather it's an affirmation that this party has lost another state to a regional party, as had been the case in Bihar, UP, West Bengal.

The BJP had been dismissive about the AAP and woke up quite late to name Dr Harsh Vardhan as chief ministerial candidate. The party, which had given Delhi its first Aam Aadmi as CM in Saheb Singh Verma, has been too defensive. No game can be won if no risk is taken, that the BJP should know and its Delhi leaders would do a world of good to themselves to start believing that they understand the city better than their colleagues in the Central BJP.

A lot of drama has taken place in Delhi since April 2011 and rightly the city has a lot of theaters near Mandi Chowk, including that of the National School of Drama.   

But the biggest challenge that India is now faced is the prospect of the country becoming a nation of litigation and litigants. That the judicial activism has enriched the civilian rights is well-known. But the attempt to establish superiority of judiciary over democracy is a dangerous recipe that the likes of Prashant Bhushan and Kejriwal are proposing.

Ironically, it's democracy that allowed the people living and working out of Ghaziabad in UP to win over Delhi. But the same democracy faces encroachments by a super-judicial bureaucracy, given legitimacy by mob driven leaders.  

However, the legal warriors are underestimating the power of democracy. And for that matter the historic Gettysburg speech should be recalled, which gave the concept of democracy, which has only gained in strength all these years.  

Amid the raging civil war in the America, it's said that Abraham Lincoln had locked

himself in a library for about three weeks. Emerging out of it, he gave the famous Gettysburg address, which lasted two and a half minutes. There he explained the underlying principle of democracy, that it's "for the people, by the people and of the people". 

The power of the people may be underestimated by activists at their own peril, as the blows do come and come very swiftly. 

The gust

"Kitna vote se jeete (by how much votes they won)," asked a man sitting on stairs leading to Hanuman temple near Connaught Place. After giving him a short reply, we hurried past, only to stop to ask ourselves, who the man was. Running back to him, I asked for his name. "Gulshan," he said. "I sit here during day and evening, and sleep in a nearby hospital," he added. Next, I asked "did you vote" to which he said "no, don't have vote". 

He was a beggar. And he was asking about the performance of Aam Admi Party (AAP). 

Quite admittedly, we were shell-shocked. A beggar was curious to know the electoral fate of Arvind Kejriwal's AAP. Looking closely, Gulshan's eyes were yellow. He was wrapped in a torn quilt. There was no hope for life in his eyes. He was one of thousands who eke out their livings at Hanuman temple on the largess of devotees. 

Dance and drum at AAP office

The thought wave went fast back in past and recalled reporting Sheila Dikshit led Delhi government's determined efforts to make the national capital beggar free. That was in the run up to the Commonwealth Games. Then she even wanted to make Delhi a digital city. Also, Delhi a smoking free city. And so many others, all ideas borrowed from European countries, Hong Kong and Singapore. None materialized but left many thinking Dikshit as an apathetic leader.    

In her efforts to make Delhi a world class city, Dikshit forgot that a lot of people lived in the national capital, who were struggling to make their ends meet. And most of them were least bothered about Europe, Hong Kong and Singapore.   

And a lot of youth and women were least bothered about the garland of flyovers too. Because, the man who gave them to Delhi -- Ashok Kumar Walia (a doctor and a bachelor) -- was humbled by a rookie AAP greenhorn Vinod Kumar Binni from Luxmi Nagar Assembly seat. 

Dr Walia was hurt, for his people in the constituency were all that he had in his life. So, he shut in a room for three hours and was seen with tears led swollen eyes by his close aides.

On the way to Hanuman temple, the Connaught Circus was full of broom held by people, who looked hailing from the lower income groups. "These are all BSP men and women," I could not resist quipping. The BSP had polled 14 per cent votes in 2008 Delhi elections and five years later the rank and cadre were swept away by the Kejriwal magic. 

The broom that swept away the Congress in Delhi.

Clearly, a hell lot of people sensed that they did not figure in the scheme of things of Dikshit and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Price rise had finally broken all the prides of the middle and lower middle class.

But the Congress' slide from 43 seats to eight is quite a journey worth examination. As it appears, only the Muslims were unimpressed with Kejriwal's broom. So, not only JD (U)'s floater Shoib Iqbal but four Muslim candidates of the Congress too won. 

The Mughal Shah Alam's empire had famously shrunken from Chandni Chowl to Palam in the freezing winter of the dynasty founded by Babur and spread by Akbar. Dikshit, despite enjoying popular support, had shrunken her Delhi to the Lutyen's zone. And it was there that she tried to work her developments.

Shah Alam had seen a gust of Afghan and Maratha invaders in his shrunken Delhi. History revisits many a times, and, later we will know if Dikshit was the last Congress leader to rule Delhi.  

If not for Narendra Modi, Kejriwal would have been sworn in as the chief minister of Delhi. Undoubtedly, Modi blocked the Kejriwal gust to throw the BJP too with the Congress into the political abyss.  

Arguably, the Sunday gust intoxicated the Kejriwal gang. And, on the day of the people's mandate, they began talking of another elections. In their verbal jugglery, they had dished out sweeping comments and generalizations. To bow before the people's mandate is the duty of all political parties and rejecting the mandate by seeking another elections amounts to doubt people's will.   

Is it a French monarchy/. From the window, Kumar Viswas tells crowd updates and then shuts.

In a few days from now the magical debut of AAP in electoral politics will be researched word over. There are hardly any parallel. In 1980s, N T Rama Rao decimated the Congress in just six months. But then he was a popular film star and had cult following. There is no other parallel anywhere in the world. 

But take away Kejriwal, will AAP have any future. None, I guess. AAP is least a political party and more of a carry over of gust released by the powerful lungs of Anna Hazare. Alas, Hazare is a lonely man today. But life is like that. Ideas outgrow minds who birth them. Kejriwal is an idea, which was seeded by Anna, and nourished by anger of teeming millions of people. 

The gust by nature is short-lived. And that's the challenge before Kejriwal. He may recall W B Yeats' those lovely words: "I have spread my dreams under your feet, tread softly because you tread on my dreams".  

New Delhi spring

Former Income Tax officer Arvind Kejriwal must have seen with wide eyes the 2004 Mani Ratnam flick Yuva. The Ajay Devgan starrer was high on idea and inspiration. Even the most politically fortified state could allow intoxicated youth to put their feet on the doorway and Kejriwal took the screen fantasy to ground in Delhi in quite earnest. That his fate would be known on December 8 is not so important, as he has been able to open up Delhi's bipolar politics already. 

The 2012 was a year of spring and the jasmine flavour swept through the Arab world, first taking flight

from Tunisia, a country of olive oil. Tahrir Square happened a little afterwards. Soon, Kejriwal began pleading at Jantar Mantar with media, with Anna Hazare on the day one of his iconic fast for Jan Lokpal, for coverage. "It's not a Tahrir Square but a movement in the making," he would plead then. Later, crowd gave him enough "high" to take off into the world of politics.

Anna movement had assured Kejriwal, that crowd and money in India could come easily and he just had to keep banging the well fortified political wall. He was right. Money flowed and with that people too, many convinced that this was the man for the change of the system.

But he probably did not watch Yuva too closely. There the Devgan led former student politicians had made entry into the state Assembly in a small way. Just a few of them were there. And here Kejriwal tells each office-goers in their cars through the FM, that he would be forming a government in Delhi with 47 seats. His ambition has taken a fantasy flight. But politics, historically, has been very harsh to dreamers. 

In Andhra Pradesh, a former Babu Jai Prakash Narayan had formed Lok Satta party and wanted to change the system. He contested all the Assembly seats in AP. In the end, his party won one seat and that was him only. Union minister Jairam Ramesh recalls Andhra too had witnessed a similar sympathy wave for Narayan. But politics turned out to be too harsh for his flight of dream.

Nonetheless, Kejriwal should be happy that it was none other than the BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi who had to focus on Aam Admi Party in his speeches. From an NGO man, Kejriwal is a politician and making his presence felt. 

The BJP should in fact thank him for committing another suicide by not going ahead with Vijay Goel as it face. That Dr Harsh Vardhan had to be named as BJP's CM candidate is Kejriwal's significant contribution.  

Furthermore, Kejriwal has thrown up ideas, taken from his book Swaraj, for local manifesto and they have all been grabbed by the BJP. Even the Congress is gearing up to come up with state specific manifesto in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.   

Delhi has been the political capital even before Babur discovered India. The pulse of Indian politic is easily felt in Delhi. From the capture of Delhi by Muslims first to the British rule to the last 67 years of post-Independence India, the national capital has shown the way to the trend across the country.

This was evident in 2008 when Sheila Dikshit was pleasantly shocked to know that she had been re-elected third time despite the back-breaking price rise even then. That was Manmohan Singh undercurrent, not seen till then, which came out in full force in 2004 Lok Sabha elections. 

But not all are blessed with the sense of time and Manmohan Singh is the last to leave the seat of power under any circumstances. Had he retired in 2004, he would have been the most successful Prime Minister of India. But this was not to happen and in the next five years he took dive into the mud. And now the feet of the Congress is stuck in the mud collected all these five years.

The sense of resignation among the Congress leaders in Delhi is hard to be ignored. The fatigue in the campaign is too visible. Sheila Dikshit looks tired. The impregnable forte of the Congress in Delhi awaits December 8 verdict with dread. And hence there are no new ideas from Congress in Delhi but only a promise for continuation of the past and that makes people more dreadful.

In contrast, Sheila Dikshit had come out with magical ideas in 2008 -- regularization of unauthorized

colonies, home to one-third of Delhi's population, and five lakh flats for the poor at Rs 50,000 each only. The people lapped those ideas and left the BJP looking a fool with an old man V K Malhotra as the challenger.

Now the ideas are coming from Dr Harsh Vardhan and coming in plenty. Those ideas are taking wings with the big crowd puller Modi. And finally, the price rise appears becoming an election issue. 

Though Kejriwal is seen hurting the BJP by cutting into the negative vote base, trend in the last decade has been of decisive mandates, with Uttarakhand being the only exception. This began from Bihar and spread to Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and other states. Therefore, Delhi heading for a fractured mandate would be against the established trend.

If the Congress loses Delhi, the grand old party would be shaken. And that would also confirm that the change is in the air -- a much awaited one. 

Terror's political trap

By the time Narendra Modi had touched down at the Patna airport, a lot of people knew that terror had laid a siege to the Bihar capital. 

Rajiv Pratap Rudy and Shahnawaz Hussain, both former civilian aviation ministers holding permanent entry passes for airports, along with young BJP MLA Navin Nitin received Modi. The Gujrat police head and Rudy reasoned with Modi that he should fly back, as the rally venue itself has been the target of the serial terror blasts.    

Modi excused himself and went into a toilet. Emerging out after a while he asked for a glass of water. Then he patted at the back of Rudy and sought to know where was the vehicle. "Let's go to Gandhi Maidan," Modi told Rudi. And then he slipped onto the front side seat of a while ambassador. 

The little archaic vehicle, instilling awe in people for its associations with the power, was not bullet proof. It was just another car. By the time Modi reached Gandhi Maidan, about seven blasts had taken place and most of them around the big ground. 

From Income tax round-about to Gandhi Maidan, Modi's car found ways through a sea of people. Even inside the ground, his white amby went past close to the people gathered there. Any fidayeen attack would have caught its prey with ease.

Clearly, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar had done his best to throw Modi to the beasts. However, the beasts chose not to devour Modi. Instead, they contented themselves setting off low intensity blasts. 

The motive of the Patna serial blasts need to be bared but that could be done by the NIA alone, which is investigating it. Still, certain takeaways are clear. First, it was an attempt to sabotage a political rally. Second, terrorists and their handlers wanted stampede to escalate casualty. Thirdly, they hoped (could have) that the organizers would cancel the rally and Modi would fly back. This would have sent the message that Modi panicked. None of them actually happened.

What Modi did in the toilet other than attending to nature'e call is not known. But emerging out and

after gulping a glass of water, he told his hosts that he was in a hurry to go to Gandhi Maidan.

But another Modi -- Sushil Modi -- did not speak for more than five minutes at the venue. He should have spoken longer, because he had toiled quite hard for over two months to cris-cross Bihar to make the Hunkar rally successful.

And he spoke just a little. At the end of his speech, he sought a glass of water. While he was gulping, his face was coal-black and that showed what he had been going through. He knew the full details of the bombs being set off. Still, he held the nerves and steeled himself. Those who were too close to him could only figure out the pain inside him. But few hours later he was to emerge a very mature politician and crowd manager.

Any normal human being would like to drink some water in such situations. But by taking potshots at them for drinking water and sweating, Nitish Kumar diminished his reputation by many notches. He should have known that Modi is right on the top of the target of any terrorist organisations, which abound in our neighbourhood apart from a good number inside the country itself. By throwing all cautions to the wind and exposing Modi to beasts, Nitish Kumar committed a dereliction of duty for which he is sworn.

Contrast the above mentioned security (if any) arrangement with any rally of Rahul Gandhi. His cavalcade comes behind the stage, which is barricaded in a manner that people are almost 80 feet away. 

  

But coming back to Patna, it should be known that the Darbhanga module of Indian Mujahiddin had long been exposed. That is despite the denials in plenty by the likes of Nitish Kumar and Ram Vilas Paswan in their anxiety to not disturb their Muslim constituencies. So, to say that nothing of the sort happened earlier, as stated by Nitish Kumar, was akin to turning a blind eye to the grim realities on the ground.

Now that nine live bombs have been recovered from a Ranchi lodge, it's evident that Jharkhand and Bihar have been callous to the ever expanding sweep of the terror infrastructure. The Patna serial blasts continue to send aftershocks to the people having long believed that terror blasts were matters of concerns for Delhi, Mumbai and others. There is a strong possibility that the anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar would gather more steam on the back of the terror fears in the hearts of the people. 

In abyss, with hope

While the man with the political momentum, Narendra Modi, has apparently side-stepped on historical facts, the Congress is hurtling into an abyss. The only glimmer of hope for Congress is the man from Bihar, Nitish Kumar, to somehow puncture the Modi juggernaut. Belittling one historical icon to prop another is quite a poor electoral strategy, Modi will need to learn fast to keep the momentum going for him. 

The Congress, after ruling for close to six decades, is facing the most grave crisis in its existence. The gloom within the Congress is expressed in hushed voices, as its leaders estimate winning 106 Lok Sabha seats, if polls were held as of today. 

The Congress is making desperate attempts to avoid slipping into two digits. The gloom is more for the fact, that the worst performance came in 1999 when the Congress bagged just 112 seats. Then the grand old party wilted to the magic of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. 

Now, the Congress is searching for clues and miracles to avert an existential crisis posed by BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The trend-spotters are leaning towards the BJP to give it four states -- Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Rajsthan and Delhi. 

What has unnerved the Congress and its leaders is the fact that the party appears headed for most humiliating defeat in Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. The sudden erosion of the popularity of Congress' most dependable leader Sheila Dikshit is giving rude shock. Dikshit's eroded popularity and party mascot Rahul Gandhi's disconnect with the people were evident in Mangolpuri where a mere 10,000 crowd came to listen to the future "Prime Minister". More shock was in the store when the crowd began disbursing even while Gandhi was in the middle of his speech. He read the signal and cut his speech half way. 

Modi juggernaut is on the roll for past couple of months. That he has eclipsed even Vajpayee in popularity is no more a matter of debate, after more than 10 lakh crowd braved bombs to listen to him in Patna. 

But the travesty of Indian democracy is that none appears in the sight to occupy the anti-Modi space. This should be a serious issue. The spin doctors of the Congress and speech writers for Rahul Gandhi have so far failed to rise to the occasion. The team Rahul has given full accounts that they are far removed from the ground realities. 

From an angry man to the prophet of love, Rahul Gandhi has done a pendulum swing in the last one month. The end result has been hysterical derision from the mass. Lacking skills to connect with the mass and further bogged down for lack of oratory, Rahul Gandhi has been so far unimaginative in launching counter attack to Modi.

But the most serious challenge did come up from Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. Like Congress, he too is faced with an existential crisis in Bihar. The BJP threatens to tear apart his social engineering. Nitish's woes are further compounded with simmering dissent in JD (U) ranks for his alleged authoritarian style of functioning. The media too deserted him, after they found that all the good things Nitish did in his first term disappeared in the second term.

Still, Nitish could rise to the occasion and pose serious challenge to Modi and by all accounts he deserves to lead the anti-Modi political space. That his party is facing a massive anti-incumbency would surely clip his wings to play a major role at the national level.     

Nonetheless, Nitish gave the glimpse of his ability to engage Modi in the public discourse. Modi is swaying with the momentum but is not at all immune to slippage. So, Modi forgot Magadh and substituted the golden era of ancient India with Bihar and side-stepped on historical facts.

Indeed, barring Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru, politicians have been poor students of history. Modi too is not an exception. Of late, he is digging into history to sharpen his attacks on the Congress. This could be a challenge for him, as electorally history seldom helps in winning votes. 

The sudden turn to give a spin to Nehru-Patel narrative may hardly pay any electoral dividend to Modi. Even if Nahru smoked cigarettes, flirted with Lady Mountbatten, erred on Kashmir and Hindi language, the generally accepted fact, shared by most Indians, is that he was the best man to be in the office in 1947. 

Belittling one historical icon to prop up another is a bad political strategy, that Modi should know quickly. If he keeps playing this up, he may just end up offering the Congress a straw to swim back to the shore.

Coming back to the prospects of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the likely scenario could be the Congress propping up Nitish Kumar under whom the jumboree of more than a dozen parties may come together. The hint to this effect was on the display at Talkatora stadium during Left sponsored convention against communalism. The Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar could emerge as the power broker post-2014 elections. 

But the front-in-the-air can have a chance only if they succeed to stop the BJP below 200 mark. This appears not much optimistic. Because, the Congress right now is confident of just one state -- Karnataka -- to win seats. Otherwise, it looks to win few seats here and there only. 

The Left is headed for a rout in West Bengal. The JD (U) is praying for longer stay of Lalu

Yadav in jail to pocket Muslim votes to avert a rout in Bihar. Mulayam Singh Yadav, a PM aspirant for ages, may struggle to win one-third of his ambition to bag 60 seats in Lok Sabha. 

In contrast, the parties with momentum -- Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee, BJD of Navin Patnaik and AIADMK of J Jayalalitha -- have all done business with the BJP in the past and their secular commitments are hardly cast in the stone. That leaves the front-in-the-air, which can witness fratricidal war for leadership the day a platform is formed, with diminished strength to repeat the V P Singh experiment of 1989. 

But politics is most often brutal to those who rule out any possibilities and, hence, a British Parliamentarian, most likely Winston Churchil, said that "a week is too long a time in politics". And the sharpest of the polarization does take place in the last three months running into the elections. So, the last word is not yet spoken on 2014 elections.

India on short fuse

Argumentative India of Amaryta Sen fame is past. India is now on short fuse. The angry India is feasting on fire in the bellies of the youth. Fire is raging, because Indian dream has turned a mirage. With over 50 lakh jobs lost in the last five years and a glut of employment seekers, there is no patience left to argue but to explode. And the shrill from loud-mouthing Indians is only gaining more adrenaline, as hopes struggle to incubate. 

Roughly one per cent GDP growth translates into 15 lakh new jobs. From the high of over eight per cent growth rate, Indian story is grasping for breath. Because now even a five per cent growth is a steep challenge. With three per cent gone, Indian economy lost on opportunity to create additional 15 lakh jobs a years. 

And over 45 lakh educated and qualified job seekers join the mad rush each year for their stake under the sky. They include 7.5 lakh engineers, five lakh MBAs and 30 lakh graduates. The glut is overwhelming. More so

because, the economic survey for 2012-13, authored by Raghuram Rajan, informed jobs are merely being created in construction (labour) and informal sectors. The Planning Commission admitted in March that India lost 50 lakh jobs during 2005-10, while only 27 lakh jobs were created.

National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) found that those gainfully employed have come down from 42 per cent in 2004-05 to 35.4 per cent in 2011-12. The unmistaken verdict is that there is a deep cut in the job market.

If not for the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and a relatively good spell of Monsoon since 2009, the Indian story would look more horrific. That is so, because MGNREGA alone gave jobs to over 23 crore households in the last five years, while agriculture continues to be the backbone of rural employment.

The story of rural and urban India is in deep contrast. While rural India is relatively better off, for reasons stated above, gloom in urban India is hard to miss. The Monsoon blessed rural India is better off by engaging largely in self-employment and trade, almost 75 per cent as per official estimates. 

However, urban India banking on Manmohan Singh leadership is left in the lurch, with a double whammy hitting them in the form of inflation refusing to be tamed despite singular focus of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and job losses galore.

Former President A P J Abdul Kalam had made Indian dreamy. He gave wings to their dreams, that India by 2020 would be brimming with a skilled workforce engaged in productive works to help the country become a developed nation by 2020. With Raisina hills now part of his autobiography, the dream is more of a nightmare, as poetry is no substitute to hard works for the policy makers.

In five years, China transferred 150 million of its rural people into the manufacturing sector, after imparting them relevant skills. In contrast, 14 million of Indians from rural areas, due to distress migration, were absorbed largely in construction sector in the same period -- no skills came their ways. These people soaking cement dusts will return after a decade with TB and lung cancer, with none to look them after. 

The apologists who shy away from comparison with China should reckon that India's new economy is no more a baby, a full two decades have gone by. It's an adult and still malnourished. 

While the rupee threatened to commit suicide over the fear that the US Fed would begin withdrawing stimulus, Chinese and Mexican currencies were least bothered. That was because their economies stand on their feet with robust manufacturing sector. India on the other hand deluded that it could become a superpower by tapping outsourcing business alone. Delusions are not permanent. And this is the stark reality of India now.     

While the corporate is on pill-induced sleep over job creation, government at various levels abandoned this responsibility long back in the name of liberalization. However, India continues to recruit much larger bureaucrats -- almost 10 time than of 2000-03 intake. No wonder the government is bureaucratic and red-tapism too obvious in its functioning.

Lanco, an infrastructure company, laid off 4500 staff last month. The reason -- projects in the pipeline could not take off even after much delay. Educomp laid off 3500, because the company is now ill. With Bangladesh becoming the new low price textile power house, those employed in India are in lurch. The count could be endless.   

The NGO man turned social activist turned politician -- Arvind Kejriwal -- felt the pulse of the simmering anger early. In Anna Hazare, he found an ably ally to turn the anger into a mass hysteria. With more air, the hysteria has turned into a wild fire. That threatens to rage down all who look to have derailed Indian dream. Kejriwal is capacity constrained to pipe this rage to blast the obvious suspects -- Manmohan Singh and the Congress led UPA government at the Centre. 

The man who watched the deepening rage from a distance for a couple of years is Narendra Modi. He knows that the ammunition had long been collected. He commands a cadre which can set off anti-establishment blasts in most parts of the country. 

And so India gears up for the most vicious elections in which shrill will drown sanity. And one must forgive the loud-mouthing Indians, for the fire in the belly is raging to cloud civility.

The peel off

For over a decade, the BJP crawled with its rugged skin and hydra-headed leadership. Snakes are blessed with a natural process to shed old skin and slip around with a new one. Narendra Modi has helped the BJP to finally peel off its old skin. Many held the mistaken belief that Atal-Advani were the inseparable part of the BJP.

The astute rise of Modi in the last couple of years culminating in him being the Prime Ministerial candidate now is an event of much larger consequences. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the tallest leader of the BJP for over seven decades. But even at his peak, Vajpayee could not generate an aura as being enjoyed by Modi. This is significant, for it has the potential for the BJP to break free from the self-inhibiting expanse of a party north of Vindhyanchal. 

During Atal-Advani, BJP had been a party with a range of Lok Sabha seats set between 100-190. A couple of surveys done so far have suggested that the BJP could be breaking out of this range. After Modi's anointment, a lot of people are wondering from where the BJP would get the numbers to form a government at the Centre, with just two allies -- Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal.

The riddle though can be lightened by recalling what happened in Uttar Pradesh in 2012. Mulayam Singh Yadav never got a full majority in UP when he became chief minister of the state. The influence of the Samajwadi Party was limited to Yadav, Muslims and some here and there. But in 2012, the SP broke all records and all gave the credit to Akhilesh Yadav. 

Credits come spontaneously without application of reason to gauge the pulse of the people. Having

toured UP extensively, the first thing people there said that they wanted a change. Then they said only SP could make the change happen. So, caste equations went for a six and all voted for the SP with just one aim -- they do not want Mayawati to form another government. The result then even surprised the SP, which was hoping to win 180 seats but got 230. So, pundits can underestimate the power of the people at their own peril.

The ground reports pouring in from western UP are worth noticing. The Jats there are speaking just one name -- Narendra Modi -- and swear that only he is the answer to their woes. Communal polarization is a dread being spoken by a section of leaders, including Sharad Yadav. 

A year before, an MP of the BSP had told this blogger, that if Modi were to be declared the PM candidate UP will be vertically polarized and the BJP could win as much seats as during the peak of the Ayodhya movement. That time the BJP had won more than 50 Lok Sabha seats in UP and formed a state government on its own. The MP was of the view that the BJP would not need even to touch its Hindutva agenda to rediscover the lost grounds. 

Modi would not be harping on the Hindutva agenda at all during his campaigning. The groundswell for him as being talked about would be for the impending negative mandate against the Manmohan Singh led UPA's two terms. 

Incidentally, Modi is a beneficiary of the Anna Hazare campaign. People may have forgotten that movement but that had robed off the credentials

of Manmohan Singh and UPA. The anger of Arvind Kejriwal has turned the youth into a bomb waiting to explode on the UPA. And Modi's strident criticism of Manmohan Singh regime is applauded with much vigour because Anna and Kejriwal delivered a receptive audience to him.

Most importantly, BJP under Advani was not seen as a party forming the government at the centre. The perception is of utmost importance in politics. It sways sizable sections of voters. With Modi, the perception on the contrary is that he would be becoming the Prime Minister and deliver the people from all their woes. 

However, even the ardent supporters of Modi would fail to count the number beyond 220, inclusive of what the Shiv Sena and SAD bring in. The verdict mostly shared by a large number of people is that the BJP has become untouchable again, the stigma, which Vajpayee had convincingly broken after his 13 days and another 13 months long government. 

But N. K. Singh, the eye and ear of Nitish Kumar, had quoted Churchill a week before JD(U) broke its 17 years along alliance with BJP "a week is a too long a period in politics". For Modi, 2012 Lok Sabha polls is not a matter of weeks but months. 

The immediate task for Modi is to further deepen the perception that the BJP is a party which can lead a government at the Centre. 

He is a close friend of the AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha, who is seen as blanking out the DMK-Congress in the next elections. She will have 30 Lok Sabha seats in her coffer. Furthermore, Mamata Banerjee will be much weakened if she does not share power at the Centre soon, for West Bengal' state of economy and debt position of her government would not allow her to perpetuate her rule in the state. BJD chief Navin Patnaik's ardent fried P Sangma is a sworn admirer of Modi and Odisha chief minister is politically quite a contented person unlike Nitish Kumar. 

So, a lot of addition is possible and politics is an art of possibilities in which nothing is ruled out. The doubting Thomases just need to recall that even Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh became friends when politics demanded their friendship.                  

Advani’s Shah Jahan fix

Even with much weakened eyesight, Shah Jahan ruled India through her most glorious days and fought bitter war to stop his restless son Aurangzeb from ascending to the seat of power. Till the very end of Shah Jahan’s rule, India was reckoned all over as a golden bird. His indulgences and misrule in later years sowed the seeds of destruction of Indian economy. With Aurangzeb later on, the mighty Mughal empire began crumbling, not because of lack of muscle, but for chronic economic disarray.

The BJP patriarch L. K. Advani is not a Shah Jahan. The golden boy of the

RSS – Narendra Modi – is also not an Aurangzeb, either. The detractors of the UPA and Congress, in particular, may, arguably, liken Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Shah Jahan. Larger history may wait for some more time for inks to dry for chronicling events of the recent times.

But Advani, who loves to call himself a blogger, threatens to be BJP’s Shah Jahan in a political avatar. The RSS, which prides in being the moral guardian of the BJP, has reasons to believe that its arguably second best product (Advani) (best, of course, being the wheel-chair bound Atal Bihari Vajpayee) has broken the parivar dharma.

Shah Jahan was more of a titular head in his old days, with his generals, including Aurangzeb, commanding followers and power of the day. The lust for power sucked Shah Jahan. Exasperated Aurangzeb settled the matter on sword, but it was his act of turning off the tap to Red Fort, that a thirsty Shah Jahan relinquished his throne. Such a moment has, however, not arrived for the RSS to make Advani bow before the change, which is inherent in the nature.

When V. P. Singh showed signs of scripting the social engineering with his Mandal Commission to institutionalize reservation for other backward castes in jobs and educational institutions, Advani reinvented himself and emerged out of the shadow of Vajpayee. He knew that secularism in India was bogus. Hindus nursed Historical grievances and monuments provided evidences in plenty of the wrongs committed by the Muslim invaders. 

And thus embarking on a modern rath, Advani told India the stories of emotional hurts at the hands of one – Mir Baqi – and the need to build a grand temple at Ayodhya. For him everything was on the stake, but he succeeded in BJP galloping to 89 Lok Sabha seats from just two earlier.

However, when the BJP sniffed power at the Ashok Rajpath, Advani very conveniently forgot the deeds of Mir Baqi and campaign for a grand temple for Ram Lalla at Ayodhya. He did not realize but people sensed that there was a serious issue with Advani’s credibility. Ram Lalla, meanwhile, stays under a makeshift tent amidst security bandobust, which none in the world may be enjoying. 

Afterwards, political redundancy pounced upon Advani when he discovered in Islamabad that the founder of Pakistan and Muslim League leader Muhammed Ali Jinnah was secular. It may have slipped out of Advani’s mind that Jinnah was very much a fresh character in the Indian history and his deeds of political opportunism in exploiting religion in breaking India was quite known to most. The RSS did not lose much time to tell Advani that he was a poor student of history.

In an eagerness to step into the shoes of Vajpayee, Advani abandoned the image he had built tirelessly for himself. He was on the path of reinventing himself again, this time in the tradition of a Congress leader, although leaning a little bit to the right. But such a path did not exist, as BJP is not and can not be a centrist party by its very nature.

Still, Advani in the absence of any alternative got quite a long shot to shoot his arrows at the Delhi throne. But he largely misfired. He allowed wades of currency to be displayed in Lok Sabha, thus bringing condemnation from all for the acts. He chose to hit out (2009) at Manmohan Singh at a time when India adored him as an honest, knowledgeable and upright man. The BJP’s tally was 116 after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. People had given their verdict on Advani, but he refused to accept them.

For quite long Advani mentored Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitely in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha respectively. But mentoring was shallow, as the end result was the Opposition space largely being occupied by the likes of Sharad Yadav and Mamata Banerjee. The BJP was found lacking to project a strong Opposition to the UPA, which had been hell-bent to wreck India’s economy with its corruption and misgovernance onslaught. People refused to believe that the BJP could replace the Congress.

The BJP’s flip-flop is more evident on the issue of the India-Bangladesh land boundary agreement. When Advani was the home minister he had publicly stated his views against the boundary pact but when snubbed by a joint secretary then – G. K. Pillai -- who argued that this was in India’s favour. Advani then promised to check facts. But even after a decade he is not sure whether such a pact is in India's interest or not, as he now maintains that the party can not support it because its units in Tripura and West Bengal are opposed to it.

With Vajpayee wheel-chaired, it’s to the credit of Advani that the people invariably talk of a third front coming to power after 2014 Lok Sabha polls when it's largely believed that the people would finally boot out Manmohan Singh led and scam-ridden UPA government.

Arguably, Vajpayee was one of his kind and none could step in his shoes.

Advani can still ensure his rightful place in the political history of India by admitting that he could not be a Vajpayee. In fact, none could be like Vajpayee, who was blessed with the virtue of large-heartedness.

Everyone has to sign off one day, as all things have expiry date marked on them. If Advani could do this gracefully, Rajnath Singh would have to sweat less in announcing the inevitable, whose time has arrived.

The Congress already in dread of Modi is counting on Advani to self-destruct the BJP. The regional parties are poles apart and suffer from bloated egos to defeat any prospect of third front. 

With life spent on anti-Congress political platform, Advani can not sign off by letting this party to slip back in power through back-door. 

Had Shah Jahan anointed an able successor when he was strong enough to see through the succession, the course of history of India could have been different. But lust of power knows no age even if nation suffers in the end.