The peel off

For over a decade, the BJP crawled with its rugged skin and hydra-headed leadership. Snakes are blessed with a natural process to shed old skin and slip around with a new one. Narendra Modi has helped the BJP to finally peel off its old skin. Many held the mistaken belief that Atal-Advani were the inseparable part of the BJP.

The astute rise of Modi in the last couple of years culminating in him being the Prime Ministerial candidate now is an event of much larger consequences. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the tallest leader of the BJP for over seven decades. But even at his peak, Vajpayee could not generate an aura as being enjoyed by Modi. This is significant, for it has the potential for the BJP to break free from the self-inhibiting expanse of a party north of Vindhyanchal. 

During Atal-Advani, BJP had been a party with a range of Lok Sabha seats set between 100-190. A couple of surveys done so far have suggested that the BJP could be breaking out of this range. After Modi's anointment, a lot of people are wondering from where the BJP would get the numbers to form a government at the Centre, with just two allies -- Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal.

The riddle though can be lightened by recalling what happened in Uttar Pradesh in 2012. Mulayam Singh Yadav never got a full majority in UP when he became chief minister of the state. The influence of the Samajwadi Party was limited to Yadav, Muslims and some here and there. But in 2012, the SP broke all records and all gave the credit to Akhilesh Yadav. 

Credits come spontaneously without application of reason to gauge the pulse of the people. Having

toured UP extensively, the first thing people there said that they wanted a change. Then they said only SP could make the change happen. So, caste equations went for a six and all voted for the SP with just one aim -- they do not want Mayawati to form another government. The result then even surprised the SP, which was hoping to win 180 seats but got 230. So, pundits can underestimate the power of the people at their own peril.

The ground reports pouring in from western UP are worth noticing. The Jats there are speaking just one name -- Narendra Modi -- and swear that only he is the answer to their woes. Communal polarization is a dread being spoken by a section of leaders, including Sharad Yadav. 

A year before, an MP of the BSP had told this blogger, that if Modi were to be declared the PM candidate UP will be vertically polarized and the BJP could win as much seats as during the peak of the Ayodhya movement. That time the BJP had won more than 50 Lok Sabha seats in UP and formed a state government on its own. The MP was of the view that the BJP would not need even to touch its Hindutva agenda to rediscover the lost grounds. 

Modi would not be harping on the Hindutva agenda at all during his campaigning. The groundswell for him as being talked about would be for the impending negative mandate against the Manmohan Singh led UPA's two terms. 

Incidentally, Modi is a beneficiary of the Anna Hazare campaign. People may have forgotten that movement but that had robed off the credentials

of Manmohan Singh and UPA. The anger of Arvind Kejriwal has turned the youth into a bomb waiting to explode on the UPA. And Modi's strident criticism of Manmohan Singh regime is applauded with much vigour because Anna and Kejriwal delivered a receptive audience to him.

Most importantly, BJP under Advani was not seen as a party forming the government at the centre. The perception is of utmost importance in politics. It sways sizable sections of voters. With Modi, the perception on the contrary is that he would be becoming the Prime Minister and deliver the people from all their woes. 

However, even the ardent supporters of Modi would fail to count the number beyond 220, inclusive of what the Shiv Sena and SAD bring in. The verdict mostly shared by a large number of people is that the BJP has become untouchable again, the stigma, which Vajpayee had convincingly broken after his 13 days and another 13 months long government. 

But N. K. Singh, the eye and ear of Nitish Kumar, had quoted Churchill a week before JD(U) broke its 17 years along alliance with BJP "a week is a too long a period in politics". For Modi, 2012 Lok Sabha polls is not a matter of weeks but months. 

The immediate task for Modi is to further deepen the perception that the BJP is a party which can lead a government at the Centre. 

He is a close friend of the AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha, who is seen as blanking out the DMK-Congress in the next elections. She will have 30 Lok Sabha seats in her coffer. Furthermore, Mamata Banerjee will be much weakened if she does not share power at the Centre soon, for West Bengal' state of economy and debt position of her government would not allow her to perpetuate her rule in the state. BJD chief Navin Patnaik's ardent fried P Sangma is a sworn admirer of Modi and Odisha chief minister is politically quite a contented person unlike Nitish Kumar. 

So, a lot of addition is possible and politics is an art of possibilities in which nothing is ruled out. The doubting Thomases just need to recall that even Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh became friends when politics demanded their friendship.