India on short fuse

Argumentative India of Amaryta Sen fame is past. India is now on short fuse. The angry India is feasting on fire in the bellies of the youth. Fire is raging, because Indian dream has turned a mirage. With over 50 lakh jobs lost in the last five years and a glut of employment seekers, there is no patience left to argue but to explode. And the shrill from loud-mouthing Indians is only gaining more adrenaline, as hopes struggle to incubate. 

Roughly one per cent GDP growth translates into 15 lakh new jobs. From the high of over eight per cent growth rate, Indian story is grasping for breath. Because now even a five per cent growth is a steep challenge. With three per cent gone, Indian economy lost on opportunity to create additional 15 lakh jobs a years. 

And over 45 lakh educated and qualified job seekers join the mad rush each year for their stake under the sky. They include 7.5 lakh engineers, five lakh MBAs and 30 lakh graduates. The glut is overwhelming. More so

because, the economic survey for 2012-13, authored by Raghuram Rajan, informed jobs are merely being created in construction (labour) and informal sectors. The Planning Commission admitted in March that India lost 50 lakh jobs during 2005-10, while only 27 lakh jobs were created.

National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) found that those gainfully employed have come down from 42 per cent in 2004-05 to 35.4 per cent in 2011-12. The unmistaken verdict is that there is a deep cut in the job market.

If not for the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and a relatively good spell of Monsoon since 2009, the Indian story would look more horrific. That is so, because MGNREGA alone gave jobs to over 23 crore households in the last five years, while agriculture continues to be the backbone of rural employment.

The story of rural and urban India is in deep contrast. While rural India is relatively better off, for reasons stated above, gloom in urban India is hard to miss. The Monsoon blessed rural India is better off by engaging largely in self-employment and trade, almost 75 per cent as per official estimates. 

However, urban India banking on Manmohan Singh leadership is left in the lurch, with a double whammy hitting them in the form of inflation refusing to be tamed despite singular focus of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and job losses galore.

Former President A P J Abdul Kalam had made Indian dreamy. He gave wings to their dreams, that India by 2020 would be brimming with a skilled workforce engaged in productive works to help the country become a developed nation by 2020. With Raisina hills now part of his autobiography, the dream is more of a nightmare, as poetry is no substitute to hard works for the policy makers.

In five years, China transferred 150 million of its rural people into the manufacturing sector, after imparting them relevant skills. In contrast, 14 million of Indians from rural areas, due to distress migration, were absorbed largely in construction sector in the same period -- no skills came their ways. These people soaking cement dusts will return after a decade with TB and lung cancer, with none to look them after. 

The apologists who shy away from comparison with China should reckon that India's new economy is no more a baby, a full two decades have gone by. It's an adult and still malnourished. 

While the rupee threatened to commit suicide over the fear that the US Fed would begin withdrawing stimulus, Chinese and Mexican currencies were least bothered. That was because their economies stand on their feet with robust manufacturing sector. India on the other hand deluded that it could become a superpower by tapping outsourcing business alone. Delusions are not permanent. And this is the stark reality of India now.     

While the corporate is on pill-induced sleep over job creation, government at various levels abandoned this responsibility long back in the name of liberalization. However, India continues to recruit much larger bureaucrats -- almost 10 time than of 2000-03 intake. No wonder the government is bureaucratic and red-tapism too obvious in its functioning.

Lanco, an infrastructure company, laid off 4500 staff last month. The reason -- projects in the pipeline could not take off even after much delay. Educomp laid off 3500, because the company is now ill. With Bangladesh becoming the new low price textile power house, those employed in India are in lurch. The count could be endless.   

The NGO man turned social activist turned politician -- Arvind Kejriwal -- felt the pulse of the simmering anger early. In Anna Hazare, he found an ably ally to turn the anger into a mass hysteria. With more air, the hysteria has turned into a wild fire. That threatens to rage down all who look to have derailed Indian dream. Kejriwal is capacity constrained to pipe this rage to blast the obvious suspects -- Manmohan Singh and the Congress led UPA government at the Centre. 

The man who watched the deepening rage from a distance for a couple of years is Narendra Modi. He knows that the ammunition had long been collected. He commands a cadre which can set off anti-establishment blasts in most parts of the country. 

And so India gears up for the most vicious elections in which shrill will drown sanity. And one must forgive the loud-mouthing Indians, for the fire in the belly is raging to cloud civility.