New Delhi spring

Former Income Tax officer Arvind Kejriwal must have seen with wide eyes the 2004 Mani Ratnam flick Yuva. The Ajay Devgan starrer was high on idea and inspiration. Even the most politically fortified state could allow intoxicated youth to put their feet on the doorway and Kejriwal took the screen fantasy to ground in Delhi in quite earnest. That his fate would be known on December 8 is not so important, as he has been able to open up Delhi's bipolar politics already. 

The 2012 was a year of spring and the jasmine flavour swept through the Arab world, first taking flight

from Tunisia, a country of olive oil. Tahrir Square happened a little afterwards. Soon, Kejriwal began pleading at Jantar Mantar with media, with Anna Hazare on the day one of his iconic fast for Jan Lokpal, for coverage. "It's not a Tahrir Square but a movement in the making," he would plead then. Later, crowd gave him enough "high" to take off into the world of politics.

Anna movement had assured Kejriwal, that crowd and money in India could come easily and he just had to keep banging the well fortified political wall. He was right. Money flowed and with that people too, many convinced that this was the man for the change of the system.

But he probably did not watch Yuva too closely. There the Devgan led former student politicians had made entry into the state Assembly in a small way. Just a few of them were there. And here Kejriwal tells each office-goers in their cars through the FM, that he would be forming a government in Delhi with 47 seats. His ambition has taken a fantasy flight. But politics, historically, has been very harsh to dreamers. 

In Andhra Pradesh, a former Babu Jai Prakash Narayan had formed Lok Satta party and wanted to change the system. He contested all the Assembly seats in AP. In the end, his party won one seat and that was him only. Union minister Jairam Ramesh recalls Andhra too had witnessed a similar sympathy wave for Narayan. But politics turned out to be too harsh for his flight of dream.

Nonetheless, Kejriwal should be happy that it was none other than the BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi who had to focus on Aam Admi Party in his speeches. From an NGO man, Kejriwal is a politician and making his presence felt. 

The BJP should in fact thank him for committing another suicide by not going ahead with Vijay Goel as it face. That Dr Harsh Vardhan had to be named as BJP's CM candidate is Kejriwal's significant contribution.  

Furthermore, Kejriwal has thrown up ideas, taken from his book Swaraj, for local manifesto and they have all been grabbed by the BJP. Even the Congress is gearing up to come up with state specific manifesto in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.   

Delhi has been the political capital even before Babur discovered India. The pulse of Indian politic is easily felt in Delhi. From the capture of Delhi by Muslims first to the British rule to the last 67 years of post-Independence India, the national capital has shown the way to the trend across the country.

This was evident in 2008 when Sheila Dikshit was pleasantly shocked to know that she had been re-elected third time despite the back-breaking price rise even then. That was Manmohan Singh undercurrent, not seen till then, which came out in full force in 2004 Lok Sabha elections. 

But not all are blessed with the sense of time and Manmohan Singh is the last to leave the seat of power under any circumstances. Had he retired in 2004, he would have been the most successful Prime Minister of India. But this was not to happen and in the next five years he took dive into the mud. And now the feet of the Congress is stuck in the mud collected all these five years.

The sense of resignation among the Congress leaders in Delhi is hard to be ignored. The fatigue in the campaign is too visible. Sheila Dikshit looks tired. The impregnable forte of the Congress in Delhi awaits December 8 verdict with dread. And hence there are no new ideas from Congress in Delhi but only a promise for continuation of the past and that makes people more dreadful.

In contrast, Sheila Dikshit had come out with magical ideas in 2008 -- regularization of unauthorized

colonies, home to one-third of Delhi's population, and five lakh flats for the poor at Rs 50,000 each only. The people lapped those ideas and left the BJP looking a fool with an old man V K Malhotra as the challenger.

Now the ideas are coming from Dr Harsh Vardhan and coming in plenty. Those ideas are taking wings with the big crowd puller Modi. And finally, the price rise appears becoming an election issue. 

Though Kejriwal is seen hurting the BJP by cutting into the negative vote base, trend in the last decade has been of decisive mandates, with Uttarakhand being the only exception. This began from Bihar and spread to Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and other states. Therefore, Delhi heading for a fractured mandate would be against the established trend.

If the Congress loses Delhi, the grand old party would be shaken. And that would also confirm that the change is in the air -- a much awaited one. 

The peel off

For over a decade, the BJP crawled with its rugged skin and hydra-headed leadership. Snakes are blessed with a natural process to shed old skin and slip around with a new one. Narendra Modi has helped the BJP to finally peel off its old skin. Many held the mistaken belief that Atal-Advani were the inseparable part of the BJP.

The astute rise of Modi in the last couple of years culminating in him being the Prime Ministerial candidate now is an event of much larger consequences. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the tallest leader of the BJP for over seven decades. But even at his peak, Vajpayee could not generate an aura as being enjoyed by Modi. This is significant, for it has the potential for the BJP to break free from the self-inhibiting expanse of a party north of Vindhyanchal. 

During Atal-Advani, BJP had been a party with a range of Lok Sabha seats set between 100-190. A couple of surveys done so far have suggested that the BJP could be breaking out of this range. After Modi's anointment, a lot of people are wondering from where the BJP would get the numbers to form a government at the Centre, with just two allies -- Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal.

The riddle though can be lightened by recalling what happened in Uttar Pradesh in 2012. Mulayam Singh Yadav never got a full majority in UP when he became chief minister of the state. The influence of the Samajwadi Party was limited to Yadav, Muslims and some here and there. But in 2012, the SP broke all records and all gave the credit to Akhilesh Yadav. 

Credits come spontaneously without application of reason to gauge the pulse of the people. Having

toured UP extensively, the first thing people there said that they wanted a change. Then they said only SP could make the change happen. So, caste equations went for a six and all voted for the SP with just one aim -- they do not want Mayawati to form another government. The result then even surprised the SP, which was hoping to win 180 seats but got 230. So, pundits can underestimate the power of the people at their own peril.

The ground reports pouring in from western UP are worth noticing. The Jats there are speaking just one name -- Narendra Modi -- and swear that only he is the answer to their woes. Communal polarization is a dread being spoken by a section of leaders, including Sharad Yadav. 

A year before, an MP of the BSP had told this blogger, that if Modi were to be declared the PM candidate UP will be vertically polarized and the BJP could win as much seats as during the peak of the Ayodhya movement. That time the BJP had won more than 50 Lok Sabha seats in UP and formed a state government on its own. The MP was of the view that the BJP would not need even to touch its Hindutva agenda to rediscover the lost grounds. 

Modi would not be harping on the Hindutva agenda at all during his campaigning. The groundswell for him as being talked about would be for the impending negative mandate against the Manmohan Singh led UPA's two terms. 

Incidentally, Modi is a beneficiary of the Anna Hazare campaign. People may have forgotten that movement but that had robed off the credentials

of Manmohan Singh and UPA. The anger of Arvind Kejriwal has turned the youth into a bomb waiting to explode on the UPA. And Modi's strident criticism of Manmohan Singh regime is applauded with much vigour because Anna and Kejriwal delivered a receptive audience to him.

Most importantly, BJP under Advani was not seen as a party forming the government at the centre. The perception is of utmost importance in politics. It sways sizable sections of voters. With Modi, the perception on the contrary is that he would be becoming the Prime Minister and deliver the people from all their woes. 

However, even the ardent supporters of Modi would fail to count the number beyond 220, inclusive of what the Shiv Sena and SAD bring in. The verdict mostly shared by a large number of people is that the BJP has become untouchable again, the stigma, which Vajpayee had convincingly broken after his 13 days and another 13 months long government. 

But N. K. Singh, the eye and ear of Nitish Kumar, had quoted Churchill a week before JD(U) broke its 17 years along alliance with BJP "a week is a too long a period in politics". For Modi, 2012 Lok Sabha polls is not a matter of weeks but months. 

The immediate task for Modi is to further deepen the perception that the BJP is a party which can lead a government at the Centre. 

He is a close friend of the AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha, who is seen as blanking out the DMK-Congress in the next elections. She will have 30 Lok Sabha seats in her coffer. Furthermore, Mamata Banerjee will be much weakened if she does not share power at the Centre soon, for West Bengal' state of economy and debt position of her government would not allow her to perpetuate her rule in the state. BJD chief Navin Patnaik's ardent fried P Sangma is a sworn admirer of Modi and Odisha chief minister is politically quite a contented person unlike Nitish Kumar. 

So, a lot of addition is possible and politics is an art of possibilities in which nothing is ruled out. The doubting Thomases just need to recall that even Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh became friends when politics demanded their friendship.                  

Advani’s Shah Jahan fix

Even with much weakened eyesight, Shah Jahan ruled India through her most glorious days and fought bitter war to stop his restless son Aurangzeb from ascending to the seat of power. Till the very end of Shah Jahan’s rule, India was reckoned all over as a golden bird. His indulgences and misrule in later years sowed the seeds of destruction of Indian economy. With Aurangzeb later on, the mighty Mughal empire began crumbling, not because of lack of muscle, but for chronic economic disarray.

The BJP patriarch L. K. Advani is not a Shah Jahan. The golden boy of the

RSS – Narendra Modi – is also not an Aurangzeb, either. The detractors of the UPA and Congress, in particular, may, arguably, liken Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Shah Jahan. Larger history may wait for some more time for inks to dry for chronicling events of the recent times.

But Advani, who loves to call himself a blogger, threatens to be BJP’s Shah Jahan in a political avatar. The RSS, which prides in being the moral guardian of the BJP, has reasons to believe that its arguably second best product (Advani) (best, of course, being the wheel-chair bound Atal Bihari Vajpayee) has broken the parivar dharma.

Shah Jahan was more of a titular head in his old days, with his generals, including Aurangzeb, commanding followers and power of the day. The lust for power sucked Shah Jahan. Exasperated Aurangzeb settled the matter on sword, but it was his act of turning off the tap to Red Fort, that a thirsty Shah Jahan relinquished his throne. Such a moment has, however, not arrived for the RSS to make Advani bow before the change, which is inherent in the nature.

When V. P. Singh showed signs of scripting the social engineering with his Mandal Commission to institutionalize reservation for other backward castes in jobs and educational institutions, Advani reinvented himself and emerged out of the shadow of Vajpayee. He knew that secularism in India was bogus. Hindus nursed Historical grievances and monuments provided evidences in plenty of the wrongs committed by the Muslim invaders. 

And thus embarking on a modern rath, Advani told India the stories of emotional hurts at the hands of one – Mir Baqi – and the need to build a grand temple at Ayodhya. For him everything was on the stake, but he succeeded in BJP galloping to 89 Lok Sabha seats from just two earlier.

However, when the BJP sniffed power at the Ashok Rajpath, Advani very conveniently forgot the deeds of Mir Baqi and campaign for a grand temple for Ram Lalla at Ayodhya. He did not realize but people sensed that there was a serious issue with Advani’s credibility. Ram Lalla, meanwhile, stays under a makeshift tent amidst security bandobust, which none in the world may be enjoying. 

Afterwards, political redundancy pounced upon Advani when he discovered in Islamabad that the founder of Pakistan and Muslim League leader Muhammed Ali Jinnah was secular. It may have slipped out of Advani’s mind that Jinnah was very much a fresh character in the Indian history and his deeds of political opportunism in exploiting religion in breaking India was quite known to most. The RSS did not lose much time to tell Advani that he was a poor student of history.

In an eagerness to step into the shoes of Vajpayee, Advani abandoned the image he had built tirelessly for himself. He was on the path of reinventing himself again, this time in the tradition of a Congress leader, although leaning a little bit to the right. But such a path did not exist, as BJP is not and can not be a centrist party by its very nature.

Still, Advani in the absence of any alternative got quite a long shot to shoot his arrows at the Delhi throne. But he largely misfired. He allowed wades of currency to be displayed in Lok Sabha, thus bringing condemnation from all for the acts. He chose to hit out (2009) at Manmohan Singh at a time when India adored him as an honest, knowledgeable and upright man. The BJP’s tally was 116 after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. People had given their verdict on Advani, but he refused to accept them.

For quite long Advani mentored Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitely in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha respectively. But mentoring was shallow, as the end result was the Opposition space largely being occupied by the likes of Sharad Yadav and Mamata Banerjee. The BJP was found lacking to project a strong Opposition to the UPA, which had been hell-bent to wreck India’s economy with its corruption and misgovernance onslaught. People refused to believe that the BJP could replace the Congress.

The BJP’s flip-flop is more evident on the issue of the India-Bangladesh land boundary agreement. When Advani was the home minister he had publicly stated his views against the boundary pact but when snubbed by a joint secretary then – G. K. Pillai -- who argued that this was in India’s favour. Advani then promised to check facts. But even after a decade he is not sure whether such a pact is in India's interest or not, as he now maintains that the party can not support it because its units in Tripura and West Bengal are opposed to it.

With Vajpayee wheel-chaired, it’s to the credit of Advani that the people invariably talk of a third front coming to power after 2014 Lok Sabha polls when it's largely believed that the people would finally boot out Manmohan Singh led and scam-ridden UPA government.

Arguably, Vajpayee was one of his kind and none could step in his shoes.

Advani can still ensure his rightful place in the political history of India by admitting that he could not be a Vajpayee. In fact, none could be like Vajpayee, who was blessed with the virtue of large-heartedness.

Everyone has to sign off one day, as all things have expiry date marked on them. If Advani could do this gracefully, Rajnath Singh would have to sweat less in announcing the inevitable, whose time has arrived.

The Congress already in dread of Modi is counting on Advani to self-destruct the BJP. The regional parties are poles apart and suffer from bloated egos to defeat any prospect of third front. 

With life spent on anti-Congress political platform, Advani can not sign off by letting this party to slip back in power through back-door. 

Had Shah Jahan anointed an able successor when he was strong enough to see through the succession, the course of history of India could have been different. But lust of power knows no age even if nation suffers in the end.    

Ishrat in bin-Laden's shoes, Obama in Modi's?

Imagine if the US President Barack Obama too was pursued by the investigators. The most potent argument in the Ishrat Jahan fake encounter case is that the rule of law does not allow even terrorists being killed in an extra-judicial manner. Fair enough!

The US and India, both victims of terrorist attacks, fight war on terror differently. While there is a clear absence of politics in the state policy of the US on terror, abundance of political interference makes India's fight against terror messy and clumsy.

The Ishrat Jahan fake encounter case is apparently a turning point in the history of India's fight against terror. Spirited efforts are being made to give a credence to the conspiracy theory in the alleged fake encounter. And a number of institutions, critical in fight against terror, are being administered poison pills in the process.

In crude terms, killings of Ishrat Jahan and her male accomplices could at best have been murder cases, 

with sources of bullets found on bodies facing the charges. This much would have been easy for prosecution. But to prove conspiracy behind the killings, that too of political heads, would be asking for moon from the investigators. The prosecutors and investigators know to their best abilities, that to prove conspiracy behind the fake encounter killing of Ishrat Jahan would need enormous circumstantial evidences, which would most likely remain elusive to pin down their obvious targets -- Gujrat chief minister Narendra Modi (safed dadhi- white beard) and his close aide Amit Shah (kali dadhi - black beard).

But there is much to gain in keeping the pot boiling -- politically. This allows the ruling dispensation -- UPA -- an alibi to brand its most potent foe as someone who has blood on his hands.

So, the CBI, which was named "Congress Bureau of Investigation" by former Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh, continues to hunt in its apparent bid to keep the pot boiling. This interests media and drawing room discussions and in the process serving the inherent political motive. 

Imagine if the US President Barack Obama too was pursued by the investigators in similar fashion. The most potent argument in the Ishrat Jahan fake encounter case is that the rule of law does not allow even terrorists being killed in an extra-judicial manner. Fair enough!

The voluminous report of a commission constituted by Pakistan has stated that the al-Qaeda fugitive Osama bin-Laden was killed in cold blood. He did not fire a single bullet in his defense. The report is based on multiple eyewitness accounts. So, the killing of bin-Laden was a fake encounter and extra-judicial. Additionally, the US Navy Seal helicopters had taken off from a base in Afghanistan and violated Pakistan's territorial sovereignty. Hence, it was an extra-territorial killing too. For those who know the law will state that bin-Laden killing is a fit case for the trial of Obama in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). 

What's more, the US policy to direct drone attacks within the Pakistani territory to kill terrorists, with army men and innocents killed as collateral damage, also violates rule of law and territorial sovereignty. Extra-territorial and extra-judicial killings -- another ground from Obama's trial in ICJ.

Arguably, the war on terror can not be fight by legal purists. Those who swear by rule of law mostly watch acts of terror on their TV sets. None in the world blinked their eyes even once when the US waged a war against Iraq on fictitious grounds of presence of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Saddam Hussain's country. Icing on the cake has been India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh going extra mile to fete the US; from George Bush to Barack Obama. 

But the same UPA, when it comes to fight the terror, allows its "foot-in-the-mouth" politicians like Digvijay Singh, Salman Khurshid to wreak havoc on the police, investigative agencies, etc. While cases are being withdrawn against terror suspects by the Akhilsh Yadav administration in UP, which is a laboratory of the Indian Mujahiddin, efforts to preempt terror strikes are being frustrated.

After 9/11, the US has not seen any major terror strikes. It's for obvious reason, that a clear and specific command flows from the President, that all means be employed to eliminate sources of terror. Not so in India, though.

The Intelligence Bureau (IB) too did the same in events which led to the killings of Ishrat Jahan and her associates."Amjad Ali Rana and Zeeshan Johar were LeT operatives. Pranesh Pillai (claimed to be a Gujrat police informer) could have been double-crossing. The IB had definite information about them, which they accordingly passed on to the Gujrat police. As far as Ishrat is concerned, one may ask what was she doing with terrorists if she was not one," said a senior official, who has overseen a number of high profile investigations.
 
The apologists and those who seek political premium in the Ishrat Jahan fake encounter would prop up their sole argument, that even terrorists are not killed in an extra-judicial manner. They need to spend some time with the police, for fake encounter is apparently inherent in their practice to eliminate sources of threat for various factors. 

"If Modi is sought to be implicated for the fake encounter of Ishrat Jahan, then by the same argument former Home Minister P Chidambaram too becomes a suspect in the killing of CPI (Maoist) spokesperson and central committee member Azad Cherukuri Rajkumar by Andhra police in an encounter, considered fake by most, near Sarkapalli village in Adilabad. Will Chidambaram stand trial at some time in future if another government asks the CBI to explore conspiracy behind this fake encounter," said the official quoted earlier. 

  
A Pandora's box may open if top institutions are politically exploited in the manner as is being done. The IB, whatever strength it has, appears to have been given a mortal blow by the UPA government by leaning over to the CBI in its bid to further its political goals. The CBI may even have forgotten its true character and mandate by now. The institution of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has been belittled earlier. 

You may be forgiven if you harm a few men, but not if you harm institutions.

In the US, the state owns up operations against terror, which, incidentally, is not a case with India. It's high time India divorces politics from its war on terror.

Worshiping poverty

There is much to gain from poverty. In contrast to Mao's war cry in China that "power flows from the barrel of the gun", the political power in India flows from the hungry mouths. There is no better shortcut in politics than being seen fighting the war against poverty.

But in the last 66 years, the war against poverty has only added more poor to the population. This has worked well for those who reap political dividend out of the growing numbers of poor. Those concerned with questions of their bellies in variably would not ask larger questions of erosion of their collective prospect.

Therefore, it's understandable why the Sonia Gandhi lead Congress, with drum-beater Rahul Gandhi, and the "famed" economist Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are keen to thrust Food Security Act at a cost of Rs 1,30,000 crore a year on the nation. The China model of growth is naturally brushed aside by the priests of poverty temple with one single broom called "democracy with socialism". Therefore, any comparison with China is largely "thinking aloud" or day-dreaming by the "idle" academician.. 

Add another Rs 30,000 crore annually (Rs 1,50,000 crore, $ 38 billion, so far in six years) sucked in by Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), which would imply that India commits over Rs 1,60,000 crore ($ 40 billion) annually in the political battle against poverty. Further add another Rs 60,000 crore ($ 15 billion), which the banks let go in bearing the cost of the loan waiver of the farmers' debts, which was pushed through to buy votes for the UPA-I. The nationalized banks had taken a body blow from this act so much so that the government had to infuse more capital into them later.   

Incidentally, projects worth Rs 1,50,000 crores ($ 38 billion) of the railways are stuck for want of funds. No wonder the railways minister Pawan Kumar Bansal yawns when he speaks on the subject of bullet trains to an audience, which is largely foreign.

He knows the money in India goes to perpetuate poverty and not to build the nation. Over Rs two lakh crore ($50 billion ) is locked into unproductive activities essentially designed to "buy" votes. They create their own web wherein the life-breath of India struggles for oxygen (investment).

Admittedly, the bullet trains would not bring the poor out of their poverty curse but the infrastructure development does lift a lot of people out of the vicious cycle. 

Thirteen years ago former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on his birth day, 25th December, launched the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY). A large number of states have actually

A PMGSY road in the Puri district of Odisha which brought
in apartments amid paddy fields, while helping the villagers
to engage in a number of economic activities like
poultry farms, etc. 

been able to make remarkable changes in the lives of the poor who now engage in gainful employments through a host of economic activities.

If the rural road connectivity can give such windfall to the people in villages, one may imagine what could be the spin off if large projects are executed without waiting for years for the World Bank and Japan to sanction loans.

No wonder India's famed growth is now tottering at fiver per cent rate. "If India has to grow at eight per cent rate, the railways will have to grow at 11 per cent, which is currently three per cent. The funds have to be pumped into the railways infrastructure. It's not just desirable but unavoidable," said Mr V. K. Gupta, Managing Director, Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC).

But the money is locked in activities which buy votes. "We are going to give you legal rights for foodgrains. We have given you MGNREGA. We waived off Rs 60,000 crore of the farmers' loans," Rahul Gandhi tirelessly reminds his audience everywhere; be it Karnataka or Uttar Pradesh or Bihar.

The government would like people to believe that Food Security Bill, which would cover 67 per cent of India's population, would ensure a savings of an average Rs 4,400 in the hands of the poor, which would consequently be spent in their additional consumption.  This would spur demand!

But the government avoids mentioning that by sucking 62 million tonnes of the foodgrains out of the market, the massive price spiral and the collateral damage in inflation could starve the very engine of the growth in the end. The savings of Rs 4,400 in one hand would be outmatched by erosion of a minimum Rs 10,000 from another hand, who would not spend on their demands. So, the demand may not be spurred but spiked.

For the last four years, the high inflation has baffled all. It has left the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) clueless, while drying up credit for businesses to expand and in the end bringing down the Indian economy to its feet.

One is compelled to believe the maxim that "speak as if your audience consists of idiots"; and such speakers apparently abound in the UPA dispensation.

The Bihar leader Lalu Prasad Yadav was shocked to find the Tughlaq Road, where he resides in Delhi, lined up on both sides by the SUVs on which the Sarpanch and Mukhiya (village headmen) lined up to seek tickets to contest the Assembly elections recently. 

The MGNREGA helped the petty politicians in amassing wealth. It's not confined to Bihar but is a feature of India.  In a recently held conference of the Panchayati Raj at Vigyan Bhavan, the Union ministers kept staring at rural women leaders. It was not for lust but for the fact that the rural women leaders were loaded with heavy gold jewellery. "That's what the MGNREGA has done," quipped one Union minister, with lips pressed hard against each other to stifle a laughter at the state of India's policy making.

Politics in India demands "quick-fixes". It does not matter if such "quick-fixes"further fortify the temple of poverty. The analogy of the head of the ruling party being the chief priest of the temple of poverty and her son being the conch-blower may not be far off the reality.

Habits die hard and the Congress leaders would like to continue worshiping poverty in place of commissioning programmes, which can actually take out the poor from the vicious cycle of poverty. 

The power truly flows from the empty stomach of the poor.  

Narendra Modi's Manmohan dream

The distinctive feature of UPA's two avatars from 2004 till now has been about pouring of adulation in plenty for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh abroad, while Congress president Sonia Gandhi steadied the coalition ship in the domestic waters. 

But the script started weakening from 2010, as Delhi geared up to host the Commonwealth Games in New Delhi. The dark underbelly of the UPA begun baring self. The corruption muck began splattering fast onto the faces of the UPA's cherished leaders. 

From 2010 onward the slide in stock of Manmohan Singh in foreign capitals and Congress' within the country have been on the lines of a rock hurtling down from the peak of a mountain.

India was central to the constitution of the Bric, now Brics, an abbreviation for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. But the recently held Durban conclave of Bricks saw Manmohan Singh cold-shouldered so much so that the head of the host nation did not bother even to have a separate meeting with the turbaned leader for whom top world leaders used to "ear up". Now, the buzz is that Indonesia is seen a better candidate than India for the Brics grouping.

The Congress had been exploiting the top standing of Manmohan Singh in foreign capitals to drum up political support. The image of an upright person, who is fountain of knowledge, had people joyously voting the Congress win 2009 elections despite odds of price rise. But the growth story since 2012 began disappointing all. 

The man who steadied the Indian economy amid the global meltdown appeared to have lost the appetite and energy to further push the India story on the growth trajectory.

The gloom spread within India and abroad too. The world had though that Manmohan Singh would give them an anchor to the global economy with a parallel of the China story. Within India, the hopes of the rising middle class had enough wings to keep flying unmindful of the hiccups. 

The BJP had largely been clueless to capitalize on the loss of face by the UPA. The party stalwart L. K. Advani, though healthy and hearty, has been past his prime for all political purposes. He blundered the election campaign of 2009 by misreading the pulse of the people and followed up with some ill-advised display of wades of notes in the Parliament only to score self goals. Gradually the BJP became a ship lost on the high sea, with no captains on board to anchor it.

Ironically, the UPA all along had been also like the BJP ship adrift on the high sea, with captains on drugged sleep, refusing to listen to the hammering of the sea waters thrust with angry waves. 

The inauguration of 2013, however, began with the roaring of a man condemned for over a decade with abuses of "mass murderer, Nazi, despot, Yamraj riding the buffalo, etc.". The man is Gujrat chief minister Narendra Modi, with his third consecutive state poll victory, and is impatient to soar high on the Indian horizon. He is emboldened enough to spread out of the Gujrat confines. He has vanquished the Congress in the state to the extent that the top leadership of the grand old party avoids to campaign against him. 

Naturally, Modi has stirred up hot debates in the Indian political discourse. In the Opposition NDA camp, his rise is like a cat having been let loose among the pigeons. The JD (U) leaders -- Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar -- wish Advani rediscover his charm fast enough. 

If not, they fear, Modi could emerge a domineering force to stitch around an alliance of his choice where allies may not call the shorts, as had been the cases during Atal Bihari Vajpayee's NDA and Manmohan Singh's UPA rules.

Incidentally, Manmohan Singh ignited the hope globally and locally of fast growth and collective prosperity. But having abandoned the ship midway, Modi senses an opportunity to not only board it but even captain the wayward carrier. In Gujrat, Modi  appears to have given a semblance of the China story. He thinks that the Gujrat story could be of India too. 

The negativity is in plenty currently in India. "India story can not be of a five per cent growth," Manmohan Singh lamented recently. But the anguish largely is that the Manmohan Singh opera is talking of the malaise only. They have no solution in sight on why the the Indian summer faded after the initial short-lived bursts. 

Undoubtedly, India story is tottering and is gasping for breath. The ailment is policy paralysis on the back of torrents of  corruption.

But Modi claims to have the medicine to enliven the Indian summer. He has demonstrated the ills and proffered cure too. Therefore, the corporate India is falling over each other to ride on the Modi juggernaut. The message is spreading abroad too and, hence, the beeline from the US to the UK to Germany to be seen as birds who sighted the first rays of the morning. 

While the UPA story has been about two individuals playing on two turfs, Modi promises to simplify it to one entity. Two creates dichotomy, as had been the case so far with the UPA, as Manmohan Singh had been conveniently passing the buck on to the coalition compulsions for all the mucks in his regime. 

Therefore, Indian interest would be served least with such arrangements any more even though those sucked into the corruption would wish that such weak system at the top continues. 

Hence, Modi strikes the chord with so many people effortlessly, as he is seen no-nonsense, decisive and a man with purpose. In short, the people see In Modi what Manmohan Singh could not be though hoped for by millions.   

When the ship is adrift on the high sea the immediate challenge is to seek a captain who knows the waters. He has to calm down the nerves of the panic stricken passengers. Quick decisions are to be taken and the umbilical chord of corruption with the polity has to be snapped once and for all with ferocity that no blood flows through it ever again. There is none other than Modi who could take such onerous task. And he promises to answer the demands with elan and conviction.   

After nine years in the office the "reluctant" leader in light blue turban gave only fodder for imagination to the billion strong Indians. Modi has his audience already filled with enough imagination. He has pilot the safe and smooth landing of the Indian dream.   

The runway at the Ashok Rajpath awaits Narendra Modi's landing. But the weather has already become turbulent. Therefore, the landing can not be on an auto-pilot mode but would require immense manual maneuvering. 

Manmohan steamrolls "reforms"

Simon Denyer of the Washington Post with his article headlined "India's 'silent' Prime Minister becomes a tragic figure" appears to have woken up Dr Manmohan Singh from his deep slumber. In a span of two days, Singh has steamrolled all opposition to roll out market friendly reforms measures. It appears that vintage Manmohan is back, though too late to undo the damage done so far due to policy paralysis.

First, Singh touched the holy cow in diesel and LPG subsidy. Both have been hit, so that they could be linked to market prices in future. The two politically sensitive issues had been red-flagged by UPA alliance partners time and again. Secondly, FDI in aviation and multi-brand retail were also approved. The lavish menu spread by Singh also included disinvestment in public sector units.

Importantly, Singh has gushed these "reform" measures, after his colleague and former Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee exited his Cabinet to enjoy the comforts of the Raisina Hills. Also, Singh's confidence apparently comes from P Chidambaram as the Finance Minister. Chidambaram had been the darling of the market for years. So, stock market has been singing to his tunes since he took charge of the Finance ministry.

After knotting India into a nuclear pact, the US had been desperate to get the FDI route in multi-brand also opened. The grapevine had been that in the last days of Mukherjee as the Finance Minister, within an hour of his landing in the US to attend a function, a concerned Hillary Clinton had rung up him to ask when was the FDI in multi-brand retail being approved. Mukherjee is said to have responded saying that he was in the US for some other function. 

Also, every criticism of the Manmohan Singh government invariably ended with one prescription, that the FDI in multi-brand retail should be allowed. Such has been the noise in its favour, that top policy makers of the UPA have opined that the FDI in multi-brand retail can solve all woes of India; fighting inflation, curbing unemployment, getting good prices for farmers. So much so that the Gandhi family scion had taken recourse to arguments like potatoes, which were wasted by farmers in Uttar Pradesh, would fetch better price once it was allowed. 

The clamour for FDI in multi-brand retail could well be understood by the fact, that it allows the US and others to tap the Indian market in big ways. The collateral damage would be loss of jobs in the existing retail trade and likely cartelisation of the retail market once the sharks of the world kill millions of small shop-keepers. Also, many of the American consumer produces currently having no demand in India would on the shelf and backed by aggressive marketing a new market would be created for them.

Therefore, Singh has done great favours to the US. First, he revived the "dead" nuclear industries there and now he can revive the job market there.

Secondly, FDI in aviation may not be much of a concern for most. Because, the inabilities of Indian airlines operators have demonstrated that they needed the FDI booster. But the same can not be said for the multi-brand retail where money, technology and management do exist within Indian companies. 

However, Singh has taken the high road to steamroll his "reforms". But his highway is full of potholes. The Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee has been a sworn enemy of FDI in any form. The Samajwadi Party would not be able to face people in UP if Akhilesh Yadav allows FDI in multi-brand retail. The Opposition is already baying for the blood of the UPA. 

The urgency with which Singh has pushed through his "reforms" signal two things; firstly that the mid-term poll is very much on the card and secondly these steps are of a ruling class fast drowning and needs anything to clutch onto.             

"Caste"tution: Subversion of Indian Constitution

Political quick-fixes, as attempted through quota in promotion for SCs/STs, just to cling on to the vote banks are undermining the strength of the Indian Constitution and Parliament. This is for the reason, that legally speaking quota in promotion is still possible without resorting to Constitution amendment bill, if governments can satisfy three conditions laid down by the Supreme Court in the famous M. Nagraj case.

Amid the raging civil war in the America, it's said that Abraham Lincoln had locked himself in a library for about three weeks. Emerging out of it, he gave the famous Gettysburg address, which lasted two and a half minutes. There he explained the underlying principle of the democracy by stating it would be "for the people, by the people and of the people".

India too borrowed Lincoln's speech. But the political class in India over the years improved upon American's phrase into "by the caste, for the caste and of the caste".   

The political class in India shelters behind caste cover as a matter of habit. Late Prime Minister V. P. Singh was thrust upon at the center of polity without any base. But power is an opium with no parallel, so Singh mandalised Indian politics. This art remains in practice even now and resorted to in quite unapologetic sense. 

The UPA government at the Centre attempted to wriggle out of the serious loss of credibility in irregularities in allocation of coal-blocks and the subsequent Parliament logjam through another bout of caste politics. After calling an all party meeting, the UPA rushed through a Constitution amendment bill to ensure reservation in promotion for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs). The objective was less to do justice to SCs/STs and more to escape from public and Parliamentary scrutiny in colossal scam in allocation coal-blocks to firms with questionable credibility. The attempt has been a failure so far.

Let us take the legal journey on the issue of quota in promotion so far. In 1992 the Supreme Court consisting of nine judges bench decided Indira Sawhney case popularly known as Mandal Commission case by holding that Article 16(4) of the Constitution does not include reservation in promotional post and is confined only in the matter of appointments at the time of entry of the service.

Consequently in the year 1995, 2000, 2001 and 2002 there have been amendments in Article 16(4) and 77, 81, 82 and 85 amendments were carried out while Article 16(4A) was added in the Constitution. These measures led to introduction of  reservation in promotional post for SC/ST, while granting benefits of seniority on promotion to SC/ST. 

But later, the five judges bench of the Supreme Court in 2006 decided the case of M. Nagraj in which Constitutional amendments in Article 16(4)A and 16(4)B were upheld. However,  conditions were added in the judgement in the form of three important guidelines, namely; (a) Backwardness of a Class, (b) Inadequacy of representation in public employment of that class, (c) Overall efficiency in the administrative works.  These three pillars became conditions mandatory to make reservation in promotion as per the decision of M. Nagaraj case.

Later, various cases were filed in Allahabad High Court out of which one writ petition was filed in Lucknow Bench of Allahabad High Court and the matter went to the Supreme Court through UT Power Corporation Limited vs. Rajesh Kumar in 2011 and the two judges bench of Allahabad High Court decided the case on April 27, 2012. They held "in the ultimate analysis we conclude and hold that section 3(7) of the 1994 Act and rule 8A of the 2007 rules are ultra vires as they run counter to the dictum in M. Nagraj judgement". 

Clearly, the Uttar Pradesh government, which had introduced the notion of consequent seniority through various rules had failed to follow three guidelines set by the Supreme Court. 

If a state government can satisfactorily answer these three conditions they can still give quota in promotion. But this will entail rigorous job of data collection, which the political class wants to run away from for fear of getting exposed. This is the reason why the UPA wants another Constitution amendment to quick-fix problems detrimental to its caste based politics.

In the all party meeting the Samajwadi Party mentioned the curious case of the state irrigation department where all the four posts of the superintendent engineers were held by members from the SC class, thus closing the window for other engineers to advance in their career.   

In normal parlance, promotion in any job should be based on performance. But India is the only country where one can get into a job and get further promoted due to the caste he or she has been born into. While entry into jobs on the basis of caste has not yet been challenged by any political party, the promotion part has seen vertical split in most of the parties, with people being vocal against it.  

Though the move to amend the Constitution to give quota in promotion to SCs/STs came in an attempt to silence the Opposition baying for the blood of the UPA leadership for "coalgate" scam, this quota bill is most likely to meet the fate of the Women's reservation bill. A regular noise followed by a long spell of silence.