Atal Bihari Vajpayee: A realist who said "wo wapas aa rahe haen"

With almost six decades of public life, former Prime Minister and the first from the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh (RSS) to enter Parliament Atal Bihari Vajpayee arguably had been an open book for many to peep in and tell tales for the posterity.

A day before the 2004 Lok Sabha election verdict, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had been surrounded by his party colleagues at the 7, Race Course Road residence of the Prime Minister. The leaders brought out their on-ground assessments of the just concluded voting. The BJP leaders concurred, and so told Vajpayee, exuding confidence of a victorious battalion returning to the base after a successful assault on the enemy front, that a resounding win is just a matter of a few hours.

Listening them all with innocence of a child, Vajpayee was untouched with flow of pride all around. At last, he said, "Wo (Congress) wapas aa rahe haen (The Congress is coming back to power)."

The beaming faces took refuge in somber expressions. His dismissal with trademark sleight of hand had none to contest. Then came the command -- Bhojan kijiye (take meals).

But Vajpayee wasn't a God. He was another mortal. And, so, he too rued till he lost his senses of having erred. "Pramod galat tha (Pramod Mahajan was wrong for persuading in advancing the Lok Sabha elections)," Vajpayee would so afterwards to his audiences.  

Vajpayee was just another mortal for the fact that he too fell for the "India Shining" campaign, which any incumbent government would like to believe in having given ears to Babus all five years. He was also just another mortal for the reason that he too rued wrong decisions. All make wrong decisions. And, all rue for rest of life as well. Time is spent, thus, in thinking and sharing about "ifs".      

VAJPAYEE was no Gandhian. He was not even a communalist. He was neither a socialist. He was essentially a realist. And, indeed, Vajpayee was a humanist.

Vajpayee was arguably the most pampered protégé  of the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh (RSS). He had been hand-picked for political works. With pride, he was hosted in thousands of homes of the RSS functionaries for meals. That he could reason with the leading lights of the Congress, and debated with uncommon élan had an electrifying impact among millions of saffron foot soldiers. They had more reasons to believe in ideologies which had not been accepted in the mainstream of the country.       

But Vajpayee was unshackled. Ideology didn't bind him. He was rather evolved. That he never succumbed to rhetoric exemplified his realism.

The Kandahar episode defines Vajpayee. The brief history is thus: An Indian Airlines flight IC 814 (Airbus A300) carrying 176 passengers was hijacked on December 24, 1999 while being en route from Kathmandu to New Delhi by Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. Eventually, it landed in Kandahar. Terrorists sought release of hardened and jailed terrorists in exchange to release the terrorists.

The Winter biting cold was sweating out the strategists. The family members of the passengers had laid siege of the Lutyens' Delhi. Vajpayee's comrade and the then Union Minister Jaswant Singh's landline phone at his residence buzzed all day and night -- some abusing, some pleading.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Sherpa and National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, who had then been the RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) chief, was aghast at diplomatic failure to allow the ill-fated plane a free fly over the skies of a number of countries.

Years of training of Vajpayee's alma mater -- the RSS -- would have wanted that no hardened terrorists be released, that the government should have taken a leaf out of Israel and ordered commando operation.

Yet, Vajpayee seemingly wilted. He sent emissaries to hold talks with terrorists. And, in the end, he accepted all demands of the Pakistan backed terrorists. He didn't want to be an iron man of India. He just wanted his men and women safe and back in the country. For him, no price was big enough to secure the human lives. And, thus, Vajpayee, baring his soft core, revealed his undying trust in the virtue of humanism, and realism.

IT'S often said that to err is human, and repeating same mistake again and again is a hallmark of the highest order of stupidity. But Vajpayee didn't free himself from succumbing to string of judgmental errors, so as to say, to keep trying for a breakthrough in India's relations with Pakistan. 

In contrast, Dr Manmohan Singh displayed a consistent policy of maintaining a long distance with Pakistan, and never fell for any of the trappings, which occasionally blow in with western winds. Dr Singh was unaffected by a posse of intelligentsia in New Delhi, who hop from one event to another to showcase their pipedream for peace with Pakistan.

But Vajpayee fell for such trappings. He hopped on to a bus for trip to Lahore with Shatrughan Sinha as a companion. He hosted General Pervez Musharraff. He allowed safe passage to Pakistani Army regulars trapped on Kargil hills despite hundreds of Indian Jawans laying down their lives to wrest the honour back.

That Vajpayee defied all warnings to connect with Pakistan was ostensibly for the reason that he was a humanist at the core. He, indeed, believed that neighbours must be friends.    

VAJAPAYEE could defy protestations from within the saffron camp against privatisation of public sector units -- not just loss making, but even those who made profits. That he could lord over the one and only instance of the government showing spine to put in practice the maxim that "government has no business to be in business" was also for the reason that he had been a realist.

Paying homage to Veer Savarkar once, Vajpayee had given a loud statement of his being a realist. "Kavita aur bhranti to sath sath chal sakti hai, par kavita aur kranti ka sath chalna bahut mushkil hai (Poetry and confusion can go along, but not poetry and revolution)," Vajpayee had said, while describing the multi-faceted personality of Savarkar. He said so at a stage where he had been introduced as a poet.

The revolution that Vajpayee talked about was change in the society which could lead to transformation of the country.

AND, such changes, are most often brought about by a leadership sworn in to realism who painstakingly takes steps with aims to lay bridges for transformation. And, Vajpayee, indeed, took giant steps for India's qualitative transformation.    

Narendra Modi's Manmohan dream

The distinctive feature of UPA's two avatars from 2004 till now has been about pouring of adulation in plenty for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh abroad, while Congress president Sonia Gandhi steadied the coalition ship in the domestic waters. 

But the script started weakening from 2010, as Delhi geared up to host the Commonwealth Games in New Delhi. The dark underbelly of the UPA begun baring self. The corruption muck began splattering fast onto the faces of the UPA's cherished leaders. 

From 2010 onward the slide in stock of Manmohan Singh in foreign capitals and Congress' within the country have been on the lines of a rock hurtling down from the peak of a mountain.

India was central to the constitution of the Bric, now Brics, an abbreviation for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. But the recently held Durban conclave of Bricks saw Manmohan Singh cold-shouldered so much so that the head of the host nation did not bother even to have a separate meeting with the turbaned leader for whom top world leaders used to "ear up". Now, the buzz is that Indonesia is seen a better candidate than India for the Brics grouping.

The Congress had been exploiting the top standing of Manmohan Singh in foreign capitals to drum up political support. The image of an upright person, who is fountain of knowledge, had people joyously voting the Congress win 2009 elections despite odds of price rise. But the growth story since 2012 began disappointing all. 

The man who steadied the Indian economy amid the global meltdown appeared to have lost the appetite and energy to further push the India story on the growth trajectory.

The gloom spread within India and abroad too. The world had though that Manmohan Singh would give them an anchor to the global economy with a parallel of the China story. Within India, the hopes of the rising middle class had enough wings to keep flying unmindful of the hiccups. 

The BJP had largely been clueless to capitalize on the loss of face by the UPA. The party stalwart L. K. Advani, though healthy and hearty, has been past his prime for all political purposes. He blundered the election campaign of 2009 by misreading the pulse of the people and followed up with some ill-advised display of wades of notes in the Parliament only to score self goals. Gradually the BJP became a ship lost on the high sea, with no captains on board to anchor it.

Ironically, the UPA all along had been also like the BJP ship adrift on the high sea, with captains on drugged sleep, refusing to listen to the hammering of the sea waters thrust with angry waves. 

The inauguration of 2013, however, began with the roaring of a man condemned for over a decade with abuses of "mass murderer, Nazi, despot, Yamraj riding the buffalo, etc.". The man is Gujrat chief minister Narendra Modi, with his third consecutive state poll victory, and is impatient to soar high on the Indian horizon. He is emboldened enough to spread out of the Gujrat confines. He has vanquished the Congress in the state to the extent that the top leadership of the grand old party avoids to campaign against him. 

Naturally, Modi has stirred up hot debates in the Indian political discourse. In the Opposition NDA camp, his rise is like a cat having been let loose among the pigeons. The JD (U) leaders -- Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar -- wish Advani rediscover his charm fast enough. 

If not, they fear, Modi could emerge a domineering force to stitch around an alliance of his choice where allies may not call the shorts, as had been the cases during Atal Bihari Vajpayee's NDA and Manmohan Singh's UPA rules.

Incidentally, Manmohan Singh ignited the hope globally and locally of fast growth and collective prosperity. But having abandoned the ship midway, Modi senses an opportunity to not only board it but even captain the wayward carrier. In Gujrat, Modi  appears to have given a semblance of the China story. He thinks that the Gujrat story could be of India too. 

The negativity is in plenty currently in India. "India story can not be of a five per cent growth," Manmohan Singh lamented recently. But the anguish largely is that the Manmohan Singh opera is talking of the malaise only. They have no solution in sight on why the the Indian summer faded after the initial short-lived bursts. 

Undoubtedly, India story is tottering and is gasping for breath. The ailment is policy paralysis on the back of torrents of  corruption.

But Modi claims to have the medicine to enliven the Indian summer. He has demonstrated the ills and proffered cure too. Therefore, the corporate India is falling over each other to ride on the Modi juggernaut. The message is spreading abroad too and, hence, the beeline from the US to the UK to Germany to be seen as birds who sighted the first rays of the morning. 

While the UPA story has been about two individuals playing on two turfs, Modi promises to simplify it to one entity. Two creates dichotomy, as had been the case so far with the UPA, as Manmohan Singh had been conveniently passing the buck on to the coalition compulsions for all the mucks in his regime. 

Therefore, Indian interest would be served least with such arrangements any more even though those sucked into the corruption would wish that such weak system at the top continues. 

Hence, Modi strikes the chord with so many people effortlessly, as he is seen no-nonsense, decisive and a man with purpose. In short, the people see In Modi what Manmohan Singh could not be though hoped for by millions.   

When the ship is adrift on the high sea the immediate challenge is to seek a captain who knows the waters. He has to calm down the nerves of the panic stricken passengers. Quick decisions are to be taken and the umbilical chord of corruption with the polity has to be snapped once and for all with ferocity that no blood flows through it ever again. There is none other than Modi who could take such onerous task. And he promises to answer the demands with elan and conviction.   

After nine years in the office the "reluctant" leader in light blue turban gave only fodder for imagination to the billion strong Indians. Modi has his audience already filled with enough imagination. He has pilot the safe and smooth landing of the Indian dream.   

The runway at the Ashok Rajpath awaits Narendra Modi's landing. But the weather has already become turbulent. Therefore, the landing can not be on an auto-pilot mode but would require immense manual maneuvering. 

Summer of 2012

Pranab Mukherjee's nomination for Presidential election has cast a shadow over the political process, which is fraught with many ramifications.

Indian summer of 2012 will stay in memory for long. A lot of political drama took place in New Delhi, while more may also unfold. Aftereffects of the way India's next President has been chosen may be felt for a long time. Authorities have been challenged and belittled.

Pranab Mukherjee has impressive political experience matched by few

Seventy two hours after two regional kshatraps -- Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee -- outmaneuvered UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi in picking India's next Presidential candidate, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee profusely thanked all for showing trust in him. 

Another forty eight hours later the self-declared crusader against corruption -- Arvind Kejriwal -- cast his doubt on Mukherjee. He tweeted that there are serious allegations of corruption against Mukherjee. He had earlier done what no politicians had dared to do by accusing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of corruption. 

Kejriwal may not be just a stone pelter. He is standing up to the might of the establishment. It's not a joke. 

Mulayam Singh Yadav has gone on records to say that he pressured the Congress to declare Mukherjee's name. What he is not spelling out is that he played his role in the act which might have been scripted by Mukherjee himself. As a politician with tonnes of experience in outsmarting others, Mukherjee may have known that Sonia Gandhi could have cut short his journey to Raisina Hill. 

Authority of Sonia Gandhi has clearly been belittled. She is stated to have met Mulayam Singh Yadav twice in those 72 hours. This was a job that her political advisor Ahmed Patel did all these years. If Mukherjee was not her choice and she was forced to name him, then her political hold has clearly diminished. The perception of weakened political grip would make her vulnerable. This is a bad news for Congress.

The UPA-II has been damned as one of the most bureaucratic government that India ever saw. Likes of P Chidambaram, Kapil Sibbal and Salman Khurshid represent UPA-II. Commentators have already written their political obituaries. 

Mukherjee is one last political face surviving in UPA-II. His exit would strip UPA-II of all political credibility. Though he rushed to welcome Ramdev at airport and watched while scores of CAG indicated scams unfolded, Mukherjee still blunted all round political attacks on UPA-II so far. 

Mukherjee's absence from treasury benches in Lok Sabha will surely make UPA-II a sitting duck. 

Irony is that after a semblance of consultation on Presidential election, which included Sonia Gandhi's talks with Ajit Singh, Ram Vilas Paswan, T R Balu -- consensus is being thrusted on Opposition NDA on Mukherjee's name. Worse is that the NDA is wavering in calling the bluff. Therefore, Mamata Banerjee has rightfully emerged as the true voice of dissent.

Positioning of 2014 or a mid-term poll has already begun. NDA, which looked as if dead for some years, all of a sudden appear netting many friends. Summer of 2012 will prolong, as even Monsoon wants so.  

2014: NDA or Gowdas, Gujrals?

The Manmohan Singh headed UPA government at the Centre has clearly become lameduck. The Congress is too demoralised to drop an anchor to the UPA, which appears to be a ship adrift on high sea. Except for gains in relations with Pakistan, which are also only virtual in nature, the UPA has been going on and on on policy paralysis for quite a long time to boost sentiment in any class of the people.

   

The controversy surrounding the Army and Chief of the Army Staff (CoAS) V. K. Singh is an example of the kind of indecisiveness within the UPA. A Cabinet minister from the Congress in the UPA summed up the state of affairs when he confided his view on reported bugging of the office of the Defence Minister A. K. Antony. "You bug to tap conversations not the silence," quipped the Minister. A former aide of Antony had to say that "the man does not take any action, just sits on and on". Ironically, Antony headed committee would soon give a report on the electoral losses of the Congress in the recent state Assembly elections.

 

Another Union Cabinet minister, also hailing from the Congress, in the UPA rued the fact that there was no leadership in the country. In 2009, Manmohan Singh was a leader (non-political) who ensured that the Congress led UPA was voted again into power, thanks to his image of an honest man scripting India's economic march. In 2012, the Congress does not find any leader. The Uttar Pradesh state polls verdict clipped the wings of Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who had pinned hope for a good result to leap into top echelons of national leadership. He will need another two years to undo the loss of image due to UP poll debacle.

 

The only big state where the Congress is in power is Andhra Pradesh where YSR (Y Rajshekhara Reddy) is no more and the party is more or less in suicidal mode. The Congress appears in sorry state in Rajsthan. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odhisa, Tamil Nadu have all gone to powerful regional kshatraps. The BJP rules in other states.

 

Some have credited Anna movement for high voting turnout in states, which went to the polls recently, UP and Goa in particular. Social networking sites appear to be building quite a silent campaign against the UPA in a big way. Team Anna has set an eye on the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. People open their newspapers most often in the morning everyday with an anticipation, that some new scams would have been reported. The perception of corruption at large has knocked off all the goodwills that Manmohan Singh enjoyed till three years ago.

 

But the question which is more pressing is that whether the principal Opposition BJP is ready to step into the shoes of the Congress and lead NDA back into power after 2004. The BJP chief Nitin Gadkari even after four years at the helm of affairs does not appear to understand North Indian politics, which explains his blunder in inducting Babu Singh Kushwaha in the party fold just on the eve of the UP elections. Anger of the people against the BJP was so much that the saffron party lost even Ayodhya seat to Samajwadi Party.

 

The BJP, however, has regional kshatraps of its own who can electorally deliver in the domain. Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Chhatisgarh's Raman Singh, Gujrat's Narendra Modi have the wherewithal to withstand anti-incumbency factor. But the void at the top level in the BJP is hard to fill in, with party patrirach L. K. Advani too old to lead the NDA in 2014. The BJP is also a party known for fratricidal war.

 

Therefore, India appears headed for 2014 Lok Sabha elections, with both the principal claimants to power not in strong health. The SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav believes that if his party could win 50 Lok Sabha seats in UP, he could stake claims for Prime Minister's post by bringing around all non-Congress and non-BJP parties. Numerically speaking such a scenario would still require outside support of either the Congress or the BJP, which in itself is a recipe for instability. Lots of churning out will take place in the run up to 2014, which may hold the key to the way the politics of the nation may be headed.