India on short fuse

Argumentative India of Amaryta Sen fame is past. India is now on short fuse. The angry India is feasting on fire in the bellies of the youth. Fire is raging, because Indian dream has turned a mirage. With over 50 lakh jobs lost in the last five years and a glut of employment seekers, there is no patience left to argue but to explode. And the shrill from loud-mouthing Indians is only gaining more adrenaline, as hopes struggle to incubate. 

Roughly one per cent GDP growth translates into 15 lakh new jobs. From the high of over eight per cent growth rate, Indian story is grasping for breath. Because now even a five per cent growth is a steep challenge. With three per cent gone, Indian economy lost on opportunity to create additional 15 lakh jobs a years. 

And over 45 lakh educated and qualified job seekers join the mad rush each year for their stake under the sky. They include 7.5 lakh engineers, five lakh MBAs and 30 lakh graduates. The glut is overwhelming. More so

because, the economic survey for 2012-13, authored by Raghuram Rajan, informed jobs are merely being created in construction (labour) and informal sectors. The Planning Commission admitted in March that India lost 50 lakh jobs during 2005-10, while only 27 lakh jobs were created.

National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) found that those gainfully employed have come down from 42 per cent in 2004-05 to 35.4 per cent in 2011-12. The unmistaken verdict is that there is a deep cut in the job market.

If not for the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and a relatively good spell of Monsoon since 2009, the Indian story would look more horrific. That is so, because MGNREGA alone gave jobs to over 23 crore households in the last five years, while agriculture continues to be the backbone of rural employment.

The story of rural and urban India is in deep contrast. While rural India is relatively better off, for reasons stated above, gloom in urban India is hard to miss. The Monsoon blessed rural India is better off by engaging largely in self-employment and trade, almost 75 per cent as per official estimates. 

However, urban India banking on Manmohan Singh leadership is left in the lurch, with a double whammy hitting them in the form of inflation refusing to be tamed despite singular focus of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and job losses galore.

Former President A P J Abdul Kalam had made Indian dreamy. He gave wings to their dreams, that India by 2020 would be brimming with a skilled workforce engaged in productive works to help the country become a developed nation by 2020. With Raisina hills now part of his autobiography, the dream is more of a nightmare, as poetry is no substitute to hard works for the policy makers.

In five years, China transferred 150 million of its rural people into the manufacturing sector, after imparting them relevant skills. In contrast, 14 million of Indians from rural areas, due to distress migration, were absorbed largely in construction sector in the same period -- no skills came their ways. These people soaking cement dusts will return after a decade with TB and lung cancer, with none to look them after. 

The apologists who shy away from comparison with China should reckon that India's new economy is no more a baby, a full two decades have gone by. It's an adult and still malnourished. 

While the rupee threatened to commit suicide over the fear that the US Fed would begin withdrawing stimulus, Chinese and Mexican currencies were least bothered. That was because their economies stand on their feet with robust manufacturing sector. India on the other hand deluded that it could become a superpower by tapping outsourcing business alone. Delusions are not permanent. And this is the stark reality of India now.     

While the corporate is on pill-induced sleep over job creation, government at various levels abandoned this responsibility long back in the name of liberalization. However, India continues to recruit much larger bureaucrats -- almost 10 time than of 2000-03 intake. No wonder the government is bureaucratic and red-tapism too obvious in its functioning.

Lanco, an infrastructure company, laid off 4500 staff last month. The reason -- projects in the pipeline could not take off even after much delay. Educomp laid off 3500, because the company is now ill. With Bangladesh becoming the new low price textile power house, those employed in India are in lurch. The count could be endless.   

The NGO man turned social activist turned politician -- Arvind Kejriwal -- felt the pulse of the simmering anger early. In Anna Hazare, he found an ably ally to turn the anger into a mass hysteria. With more air, the hysteria has turned into a wild fire. That threatens to rage down all who look to have derailed Indian dream. Kejriwal is capacity constrained to pipe this rage to blast the obvious suspects -- Manmohan Singh and the Congress led UPA government at the Centre. 

The man who watched the deepening rage from a distance for a couple of years is Narendra Modi. He knows that the ammunition had long been collected. He commands a cadre which can set off anti-establishment blasts in most parts of the country. 

And so India gears up for the most vicious elections in which shrill will drown sanity. And one must forgive the loud-mouthing Indians, for the fire in the belly is raging to cloud civility.

The peel off

For over a decade, the BJP crawled with its rugged skin and hydra-headed leadership. Snakes are blessed with a natural process to shed old skin and slip around with a new one. Narendra Modi has helped the BJP to finally peel off its old skin. Many held the mistaken belief that Atal-Advani were the inseparable part of the BJP.

The astute rise of Modi in the last couple of years culminating in him being the Prime Ministerial candidate now is an event of much larger consequences. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the tallest leader of the BJP for over seven decades. But even at his peak, Vajpayee could not generate an aura as being enjoyed by Modi. This is significant, for it has the potential for the BJP to break free from the self-inhibiting expanse of a party north of Vindhyanchal. 

During Atal-Advani, BJP had been a party with a range of Lok Sabha seats set between 100-190. A couple of surveys done so far have suggested that the BJP could be breaking out of this range. After Modi's anointment, a lot of people are wondering from where the BJP would get the numbers to form a government at the Centre, with just two allies -- Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal.

The riddle though can be lightened by recalling what happened in Uttar Pradesh in 2012. Mulayam Singh Yadav never got a full majority in UP when he became chief minister of the state. The influence of the Samajwadi Party was limited to Yadav, Muslims and some here and there. But in 2012, the SP broke all records and all gave the credit to Akhilesh Yadav. 

Credits come spontaneously without application of reason to gauge the pulse of the people. Having

toured UP extensively, the first thing people there said that they wanted a change. Then they said only SP could make the change happen. So, caste equations went for a six and all voted for the SP with just one aim -- they do not want Mayawati to form another government. The result then even surprised the SP, which was hoping to win 180 seats but got 230. So, pundits can underestimate the power of the people at their own peril.

The ground reports pouring in from western UP are worth noticing. The Jats there are speaking just one name -- Narendra Modi -- and swear that only he is the answer to their woes. Communal polarization is a dread being spoken by a section of leaders, including Sharad Yadav. 

A year before, an MP of the BSP had told this blogger, that if Modi were to be declared the PM candidate UP will be vertically polarized and the BJP could win as much seats as during the peak of the Ayodhya movement. That time the BJP had won more than 50 Lok Sabha seats in UP and formed a state government on its own. The MP was of the view that the BJP would not need even to touch its Hindutva agenda to rediscover the lost grounds. 

Modi would not be harping on the Hindutva agenda at all during his campaigning. The groundswell for him as being talked about would be for the impending negative mandate against the Manmohan Singh led UPA's two terms. 

Incidentally, Modi is a beneficiary of the Anna Hazare campaign. People may have forgotten that movement but that had robed off the credentials

of Manmohan Singh and UPA. The anger of Arvind Kejriwal has turned the youth into a bomb waiting to explode on the UPA. And Modi's strident criticism of Manmohan Singh regime is applauded with much vigour because Anna and Kejriwal delivered a receptive audience to him.

Most importantly, BJP under Advani was not seen as a party forming the government at the centre. The perception is of utmost importance in politics. It sways sizable sections of voters. With Modi, the perception on the contrary is that he would be becoming the Prime Minister and deliver the people from all their woes. 

However, even the ardent supporters of Modi would fail to count the number beyond 220, inclusive of what the Shiv Sena and SAD bring in. The verdict mostly shared by a large number of people is that the BJP has become untouchable again, the stigma, which Vajpayee had convincingly broken after his 13 days and another 13 months long government. 

But N. K. Singh, the eye and ear of Nitish Kumar, had quoted Churchill a week before JD(U) broke its 17 years along alliance with BJP "a week is a too long a period in politics". For Modi, 2012 Lok Sabha polls is not a matter of weeks but months. 

The immediate task for Modi is to further deepen the perception that the BJP is a party which can lead a government at the Centre. 

He is a close friend of the AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha, who is seen as blanking out the DMK-Congress in the next elections. She will have 30 Lok Sabha seats in her coffer. Furthermore, Mamata Banerjee will be much weakened if she does not share power at the Centre soon, for West Bengal' state of economy and debt position of her government would not allow her to perpetuate her rule in the state. BJD chief Navin Patnaik's ardent fried P Sangma is a sworn admirer of Modi and Odisha chief minister is politically quite a contented person unlike Nitish Kumar. 

So, a lot of addition is possible and politics is an art of possibilities in which nothing is ruled out. The doubting Thomases just need to recall that even Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh became friends when politics demanded their friendship.                  

Advani’s Shah Jahan fix

Even with much weakened eyesight, Shah Jahan ruled India through her most glorious days and fought bitter war to stop his restless son Aurangzeb from ascending to the seat of power. Till the very end of Shah Jahan’s rule, India was reckoned all over as a golden bird. His indulgences and misrule in later years sowed the seeds of destruction of Indian economy. With Aurangzeb later on, the mighty Mughal empire began crumbling, not because of lack of muscle, but for chronic economic disarray.

The BJP patriarch L. K. Advani is not a Shah Jahan. The golden boy of the

RSS – Narendra Modi – is also not an Aurangzeb, either. The detractors of the UPA and Congress, in particular, may, arguably, liken Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Shah Jahan. Larger history may wait for some more time for inks to dry for chronicling events of the recent times.

But Advani, who loves to call himself a blogger, threatens to be BJP’s Shah Jahan in a political avatar. The RSS, which prides in being the moral guardian of the BJP, has reasons to believe that its arguably second best product (Advani) (best, of course, being the wheel-chair bound Atal Bihari Vajpayee) has broken the parivar dharma.

Shah Jahan was more of a titular head in his old days, with his generals, including Aurangzeb, commanding followers and power of the day. The lust for power sucked Shah Jahan. Exasperated Aurangzeb settled the matter on sword, but it was his act of turning off the tap to Red Fort, that a thirsty Shah Jahan relinquished his throne. Such a moment has, however, not arrived for the RSS to make Advani bow before the change, which is inherent in the nature.

When V. P. Singh showed signs of scripting the social engineering with his Mandal Commission to institutionalize reservation for other backward castes in jobs and educational institutions, Advani reinvented himself and emerged out of the shadow of Vajpayee. He knew that secularism in India was bogus. Hindus nursed Historical grievances and monuments provided evidences in plenty of the wrongs committed by the Muslim invaders. 

And thus embarking on a modern rath, Advani told India the stories of emotional hurts at the hands of one – Mir Baqi – and the need to build a grand temple at Ayodhya. For him everything was on the stake, but he succeeded in BJP galloping to 89 Lok Sabha seats from just two earlier.

However, when the BJP sniffed power at the Ashok Rajpath, Advani very conveniently forgot the deeds of Mir Baqi and campaign for a grand temple for Ram Lalla at Ayodhya. He did not realize but people sensed that there was a serious issue with Advani’s credibility. Ram Lalla, meanwhile, stays under a makeshift tent amidst security bandobust, which none in the world may be enjoying. 

Afterwards, political redundancy pounced upon Advani when he discovered in Islamabad that the founder of Pakistan and Muslim League leader Muhammed Ali Jinnah was secular. It may have slipped out of Advani’s mind that Jinnah was very much a fresh character in the Indian history and his deeds of political opportunism in exploiting religion in breaking India was quite known to most. The RSS did not lose much time to tell Advani that he was a poor student of history.

In an eagerness to step into the shoes of Vajpayee, Advani abandoned the image he had built tirelessly for himself. He was on the path of reinventing himself again, this time in the tradition of a Congress leader, although leaning a little bit to the right. But such a path did not exist, as BJP is not and can not be a centrist party by its very nature.

Still, Advani in the absence of any alternative got quite a long shot to shoot his arrows at the Delhi throne. But he largely misfired. He allowed wades of currency to be displayed in Lok Sabha, thus bringing condemnation from all for the acts. He chose to hit out (2009) at Manmohan Singh at a time when India adored him as an honest, knowledgeable and upright man. The BJP’s tally was 116 after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. People had given their verdict on Advani, but he refused to accept them.

For quite long Advani mentored Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitely in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha respectively. But mentoring was shallow, as the end result was the Opposition space largely being occupied by the likes of Sharad Yadav and Mamata Banerjee. The BJP was found lacking to project a strong Opposition to the UPA, which had been hell-bent to wreck India’s economy with its corruption and misgovernance onslaught. People refused to believe that the BJP could replace the Congress.

The BJP’s flip-flop is more evident on the issue of the India-Bangladesh land boundary agreement. When Advani was the home minister he had publicly stated his views against the boundary pact but when snubbed by a joint secretary then – G. K. Pillai -- who argued that this was in India’s favour. Advani then promised to check facts. But even after a decade he is not sure whether such a pact is in India's interest or not, as he now maintains that the party can not support it because its units in Tripura and West Bengal are opposed to it.

With Vajpayee wheel-chaired, it’s to the credit of Advani that the people invariably talk of a third front coming to power after 2014 Lok Sabha polls when it's largely believed that the people would finally boot out Manmohan Singh led and scam-ridden UPA government.

Arguably, Vajpayee was one of his kind and none could step in his shoes.

Advani can still ensure his rightful place in the political history of India by admitting that he could not be a Vajpayee. In fact, none could be like Vajpayee, who was blessed with the virtue of large-heartedness.

Everyone has to sign off one day, as all things have expiry date marked on them. If Advani could do this gracefully, Rajnath Singh would have to sweat less in announcing the inevitable, whose time has arrived.

The Congress already in dread of Modi is counting on Advani to self-destruct the BJP. The regional parties are poles apart and suffer from bloated egos to defeat any prospect of third front. 

With life spent on anti-Congress political platform, Advani can not sign off by letting this party to slip back in power through back-door. 

Had Shah Jahan anointed an able successor when he was strong enough to see through the succession, the course of history of India could have been different. But lust of power knows no age even if nation suffers in the end.