Lost to chatters of Gymkhana club

What if oil prices had not crashed by about 80 per cent from its peak? 

In a few hours, India will know finer details of the third General Budget of the Narendra Modi government. Indian economy is huffing and puffing to stay just a little above seven per cent mark. 

A year of collective shock to Modi's economic incrementalism called creative by some has passed by. Admirers of Modi exude sense of resignations. His foes betray exultation. People at large give a sense of disbelief, and seek refuge in collective silence.

A government sitting on a bounty of over Rs 1.50 lakh crore of oil windfall has mostly been on expenditure freeze. The fiscal deficit is well within target. But all other targets set in the Budget for 2015-16 coming close to the timeline suggest authorship of some drunken economic lunatic. Direct tax collection is off target by 10 per cent, and suddenly woken up tax men are doing some crazy things to make nightmarish reality little less acerbic.

Indian economy had a joy ride for a bout a decade from 1999-2008. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) flew past magical eight percentage points. But the journey 2009 onward has been down the hill.

The decade long golden run of Indian economy was arguably not fueled by great software export or manufacturing expansion. It was a golden gift of the weather God. The Monsoon had been steady. The government incentive to produce foodgrains enabled farmers to sweat to sweet income. The farmers had money in their pockets to go out and buy. Additionally, the government splurged on rural income, pouring at least Rs five lakh crore by way of National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) and its various earlier avatars and Pradhan Mantri Gram sadak Yojna (PMGSY) in that golden decade. 

Afterward, the government got wiser, knowing that its rural splurge was past the line to give political dividend anymore. And, the powerful stream suddenly turned into trickle. 

The weather God too got angrier. The Monsoon rains turned wobbly. The spread was not even. The year 2008 brought a pause to the golden agrarian run. Many parts of the country came under the spell of drought. And since then the drought areas had only been geographically shifting, while some like the Bundelkhand, Marathwada, Vidarbha, parts of Karnatka and Gujarat staying under long spell of dry weather. 

The parched land dried rural splurge stream battered the Indian economy by 2013. The GDP growth kissed five per cent. The Modi government's first year saw a major sub-normal Monsoon. A year later, his government watched clueless to the blow of the unseasonal rains and hailstorm. Another year later, the Monsoon left large parts of the country parched. 

And Modi never believed in rural splurge. But the economy crawled back to seven plus mark, but the Manmohan Singh's time of jobless growth stayed with Modi too. 

With jobs not in sight and rural income gone, the facade of India's robust economy has been exposed to all. 

The governments without exception have been fascinated with those flashing degrees from Harward University and its likes. Such tribe penetrates the government echelon with ease. Those who had never seen a village in their lives manned the Ministry of Rural Development not long ago. Those who are enamoured with American economic flamboyance had been eyes and ears of P Chidambaram. With the change of the government, the tribe has not gone away, but only changed their robes.

Arun Jaitely had apparently lobbied hard to get into Ministry of Finance when Atal Bihar Vajpayee was Prime Minister. All lawyers turned politicians dream of becoming Finance Minister. But Vajpayee had a good measure of caliber of all around him. And, Jaitely was not allowed anywhere near North Block. 

India's irony is such a man is now Finance Minister who to his credit has not a single idea original to him which could inspire an awe. Millions of people in the country are now awe-struck to the poverty of ideas of the North Block.               

If oil had not crashed by about 80 per cent from its peak, India would have seen Modi government as UPA-III in much worse form. Difference is arguably just of an accidental gain from outside.

Indian economy is sadly slave to chatters of the Gymkhana club. And, only idlers go to a club.

The awakening

Thirty years after Indira Gandhi gave NABARD, P Chidambaram promises to give financial wings to the women to fly to their real freedom. The “all women” bank is much more than what it’s being taken for by a large number of people. It's about means to becoming part of society in true sense, which otherwise is handicapped, standing on one leg, with other being crippled. 

Society stands on two legs. Men and women constitute the two legs. A nation is made of societies. India story except for the last one decade has been that of a nation running on one leg. The other leg is sluggish and laggard for being not put to use for centuries. In a sense, India had been marching ahead with a self-imposed disability.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram has taken two distinct steps to bring the “other leg” to its full vigour. First is an all women bank and secondly a Rs 1,000 crore fund of women safety. Together they address key concerns of women – financial exclusion and lack of security. In the absence of financial inclusion and a sense of security, hoping women to enjoy their freedom is a mere day-dreaming.

Not only India, a host of countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Arab world, whole of Africa, claim to firmly stand on their feet; but with one leg largely crippled and paralyzed. Consequently, they all present a picture of refusing to wake up from their medieval age slumber.

Bangladesh is a case in contrast. The youngest nation led by two powerful women alternatively has been able to open large windows of awakening and development. While the Shahbag movement is ruling full steam, there is a clear sense that the youth there is hitting the Jihadi wall quite hard. The day the wall is brought down the region will surely breathe a new air of moderation and reason. If that happens, we shall reserve our congratulations for the powerful woman Prime Minister of Bangladesh – Sheikh Hasina.

Women can bring around revolution. There had been a number of revolutions, which were in nature of nations caught in implosion. But the one brought about by women invariably take the nations forward.

India’s Late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi too had seeded revolution for food security through green revolution. A revolution needs fuels of all kinds – human resources, technological breakthroughs and interventions, financial outreach, etc.

Thirty years back Gandhi gave India NABARD (National Bank for agriculture and rural development). This intervention triggered India’s robust agricultural march. Now India’s agriculture not only feeds more than a billion mouths but earns foreign exchange through export of foodgrains.

Another thirty years later since Gandhi’s deeds, Chidambaram promises to give financial wings to the women to fly to their real freedom. The “all women” bank is much more than what it’s being taken for by a large number of people.

However, Chidambaram’s measure has come a little late. Three years ago, the government had launched the National Rural Livelihoods Mission (NRLM) as Aajivika. The programme was based on setting up of a financial institution, with a corpus of over Rs 9,000 crores, to give support after support to women self help groups (SHGs). This, however, did not materialize. Predictably, the Aajivika too did not take off in the true sense.

But the Finance Minister has made some amends. The proposal to set up India’s first ever state owned bank by the women and for the women, with an initial support of Rs 1,000 crore, could just give a fresh lease of life to Aajivika.

The proposed “women all” bank is supposed to lend mostly to women and women-run businesses, which supports women SHGs and women's livelihood, that employs predominantly women, and that addresses gender related aspects of empowerment and financial inclusion.

The financial weakness has seen the women led SHG movement largely confined to four southern states -- Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnatka. These states largely benefit from the Central government’s annual funds for NRLM (RS 39,000 crore for 2012-13 but actually spent Rs 26,000 crore).

In the absence of financial support and lack of collateral to claim loans for the livelihoods activities, women in North and eastern parts of India have hardly gained from the government scheme for livelihoods mission (Aajivika).

Currently, India has about 25 lakh SHGs headed by women. They in all engage three crore women. The government is targeting to expand the SHGs from the current 25 lakh to 60 lakh in five years. The government hopes that seven crore women would engage in SHGs in five year’s time. So, the government is actually looking ahead to just double the strength and participation.

It’s here the proposed “all women” bank fits in the picture of India attempting to empower women. Such a bank nonetheless is neither novel nor first. The Pandiyan bank was the first “all women” bank launched in 1947 but later merged with Canara bank.

Thus, such a bank may over a period of time have the potential to transform Indian society and the nation too. It’s worth noting the contribution of women in heralding stability to Indian polity. The stable governments of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Gujrat, Tripura, Delhi, owe a lot to women, who vote in a large numbers outnumbering their male counterparts.

So, the story may just be unfolding.