Lost to chatters of Gymkhana club

What if oil prices had not crashed by about 80 per cent from its peak? 

In a few hours, India will know finer details of the third General Budget of the Narendra Modi government. Indian economy is huffing and puffing to stay just a little above seven per cent mark. 

A year of collective shock to Modi's economic incrementalism called creative by some has passed by. Admirers of Modi exude sense of resignations. His foes betray exultation. People at large give a sense of disbelief, and seek refuge in collective silence.

A government sitting on a bounty of over Rs 1.50 lakh crore of oil windfall has mostly been on expenditure freeze. The fiscal deficit is well within target. But all other targets set in the Budget for 2015-16 coming close to the timeline suggest authorship of some drunken economic lunatic. Direct tax collection is off target by 10 per cent, and suddenly woken up tax men are doing some crazy things to make nightmarish reality little less acerbic.

Indian economy had a joy ride for a bout a decade from 1999-2008. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) flew past magical eight percentage points. But the journey 2009 onward has been down the hill.

The decade long golden run of Indian economy was arguably not fueled by great software export or manufacturing expansion. It was a golden gift of the weather God. The Monsoon had been steady. The government incentive to produce foodgrains enabled farmers to sweat to sweet income. The farmers had money in their pockets to go out and buy. Additionally, the government splurged on rural income, pouring at least Rs five lakh crore by way of National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) and its various earlier avatars and Pradhan Mantri Gram sadak Yojna (PMGSY) in that golden decade. 

Afterward, the government got wiser, knowing that its rural splurge was past the line to give political dividend anymore. And, the powerful stream suddenly turned into trickle. 

The weather God too got angrier. The Monsoon rains turned wobbly. The spread was not even. The year 2008 brought a pause to the golden agrarian run. Many parts of the country came under the spell of drought. And since then the drought areas had only been geographically shifting, while some like the Bundelkhand, Marathwada, Vidarbha, parts of Karnatka and Gujarat staying under long spell of dry weather. 

The parched land dried rural splurge stream battered the Indian economy by 2013. The GDP growth kissed five per cent. The Modi government's first year saw a major sub-normal Monsoon. A year later, his government watched clueless to the blow of the unseasonal rains and hailstorm. Another year later, the Monsoon left large parts of the country parched. 

And Modi never believed in rural splurge. But the economy crawled back to seven plus mark, but the Manmohan Singh's time of jobless growth stayed with Modi too. 

With jobs not in sight and rural income gone, the facade of India's robust economy has been exposed to all. 

The governments without exception have been fascinated with those flashing degrees from Harward University and its likes. Such tribe penetrates the government echelon with ease. Those who had never seen a village in their lives manned the Ministry of Rural Development not long ago. Those who are enamoured with American economic flamboyance had been eyes and ears of P Chidambaram. With the change of the government, the tribe has not gone away, but only changed their robes.

Arun Jaitely had apparently lobbied hard to get into Ministry of Finance when Atal Bihar Vajpayee was Prime Minister. All lawyers turned politicians dream of becoming Finance Minister. But Vajpayee had a good measure of caliber of all around him. And, Jaitely was not allowed anywhere near North Block. 

India's irony is such a man is now Finance Minister who to his credit has not a single idea original to him which could inspire an awe. Millions of people in the country are now awe-struck to the poverty of ideas of the North Block.               

If oil had not crashed by about 80 per cent from its peak, India would have seen Modi government as UPA-III in much worse form. Difference is arguably just of an accidental gain from outside.

Indian economy is sadly slave to chatters of the Gymkhana club. And, only idlers go to a club.