Last nail in the coffin

A cartoonist may love to caricature PM Narendra Modi floating over Maharashtra and Haryana with hammer and nail looking lustfully at a coffin. And that will sum the whole story of the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections. 

India incubated and harnessed the art of coalition politics for over two decades. The saffron juggernaut led by Modi believes that the coalition politics accounts for most of the ills afflicting India. And, hence, Modi seeks to hammer that proverbial last nail in the coffin of the coalition politics. He thinks it could be done without wasting much of time, and, Maharashtra and Haryana offer him the right target for being home to strong regional parties -- Shiv Sena, NCP and INLD.

Modi's belief is further strengthened by the sheer lack of a competitor in the opposition camp. His campaign blitz in the two poll bound states and the size of the crowd flocking to hear him are not yet matched by any of his rivals. It will not be far from the truth that there exists no rival to his scale of campaigning. 

And that makes him to take a much bigger leap of faith and think of becoming what late Indira Gandhi was for Indian politics in 1970s and for four years in 1980s. She won states for the Congress. People in the rural areas sought divinity in her. In short, she was an icon, with no rival to match her.

Can the BJP riding on the Modi wave become what the Congress was till 1980s?

The saffron zealots would like to believe it's doable. If they succeed, Indian politics will surely take another flight towards stability. And if Modi fails to deliver, the envious run of the coalition politics since 1990s may get more legs.

It's not that the coalition politics surfaced with late V P Singh only. It had been there in pre-Independence India and briefly in 1970s through the Janata experiment. But, then, the coalition politics was there as one pole, with another being the Congress. After the mortal blow delivered by late Rajiv Gandhi to the Congress, the two polls of the Indian politics succumbed to the arms of the coalition politics. 

Modi, arguably, is not wrong to believe that the coalition politics accounts for the ills afflicting India. None has yet forgotten Madhu Koda, who as an Independent MLA became the chief minister of Jharkhand and was later found to have amassed wealth of millions of dollars through investment in mines abroad. 

Or, for that matter, late P V Narsimha Rao buying out the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) to save his government. And, the 10 years long rule of Manmohan Singh is a saga in itself of what damage the coalition politics (or its excuse) could do to the nation. Singh's meekly explaining away the compulsions of coalition politics for omissions and commissions would surely stay alive in the memory of the people for a while.

And, hence, Modi has launched his carpet bombing rallies in Maharashtra and Haryana to hold that one pole of Indian politics firmly as enjoyed by the Congress in its glory days. 

That the saffron juggernaut saw a few hiccups since the magical May verdict also did not deter the BJP

from snapping ties with its oldest ally -- the Shiv Sena.  In doing so, Modi is also taking the risk, that of excessively using his charm for local elections. And the last two decades have shown that the people have voted differently in the national and state elections. This makes Modi's political challenges more daunting. If he succeeds, he will begin inviting comparison with late Indira Gandhi. And he may help the BJP to hold one pole of Indian politics quite firmly for quite some time.

Nonetheless, the other pole of the Indian politics is set for a messy affair for quite long time. That the Congress is heading for much worse performance in Maharashtra and Haryana is all there for those who can read the writing on the wall. And, even the Sharad Pawar led NCP thought to shrug off alliance with the Congress signals the journey down the hill of Rahul Gandhi and his party.

More than electoral losses, the Congress is staring into a looming crisis of leadership. The occasional banter against Rahul Gandhi and his leadership will come in torrents after the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections. The chorus within the Congress -- a party where sycophancy and family worship is in the DNA of all of its leaders -- will become shrill for larger role of Priyanka gandhi.  

Furthermore, the Congress will be left with no option to play junior to a lot of regional satraps. Till Modi fumbles and misgovern, the Congress could wallow in the abyss of political disfavour by the mass. And, so, the party may have to ride piggyback regional parties to remain relevant.

After Maharashtra and Haryana, bitter political war would be fought in Bihar (2015), West Bengal (2016) and Uttar Pradesh (2017). That these three states are bastions of regional parties had been the constant of Indian politics in the last two decades and thereby of the coalition politics era. And, the BJP has posited itself at position to strike at the seat of power in Bihar and UP, while the saffron party is herding all anti-Mamata Banerjee elements in west Bengal.

Will Modi nail the coffin on October 19 (verdict day for Maharashtra and Haryana) or wait till 2017 will be a question to ring the political commentary for a while.