PM Nitish in 2019?

Democracy is full of second chance. 

It all began from the iconic Gandhi Maidan in Patna in October, 2013 where substantial part of the script for 2014 battle was written. In another three months, much of the script for the 2019, still four years away, will be written in Bihar. The outcome of Bihar polls due in October this year will by all accounts set course for a political process with all eyes on the month of May four years later.

Bihar will test the 32 and 68 per cent electoral debate. That Narendra Modi commanded a mere 32 per cent of the vote share in the 2014 polls offered a cocoon of political comfort to his political rivals. The natural consequence was to offer a united political alternative to the 68 per cent Modi naysayers. 

The looming electoral challenge in Bihar made the warring "socialist" satraps to bury their hatchets. They came to believe that if they did not unite they risk being annihilated sooner. The likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar, Ajit Singh and Om Prakash Choutala had seen their political herds quite overwhelmingly demolished by Modi in 2014. They came to believe that the herds were broken because they were fragmented.

The political balloon of Janata Parivar taking a shape is contingent on the outcomes of Bihar polls. If its proponents succeed in Bihar in stopping Modi, it will take wings to fly on the national horizon. If it fails, it will not wither away but jolt the skeptics in the ranks to push their personal ego little back in their calculations. And efforts with full hearts unlike currently when they have pushed Nitish to fight a lonely battle against Modi will be made.

History is not on the side of Modi, for no reformist government has ever been re-elected in the country. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had the candour to advance the elections on the back of eight plus growth rate, yet Congress humbled him. India's economic reform template historically has left millions of poor in the country out of place in the shining moon. That the Maoists registered exponential growth during the times of PV Narsimha Rao and Vajpayee has well been statistically documented to warrant any further repetition.

The anti-Modi political space is currently rudderless and leaderless. They can not tolerate the idea of some one from their ranks emerging their leader. That has been the story so far, but the future is not necessarily hostage to history. And the time is ripe for one of them to sparkle the national political space. 

Among plethora of regional satraps, only Nitish and Akhilesh Yadav stand any chance to play a larger political role at the national level. Akhilesh is still a student of politics and learning the tricks of governance with much strain. But he's just about 40 years of age and has quite a long rope to swing in Indian politics. His father -- Mulayam Singh Yadav -- is in the winter of his career. In the immediate future, Akhilesh may have to cope with a lot of fratricidal war within the extended Mulayam clan to consolidate his political clout.

Nitish has been a turnaround chief minister of Bihar for a decade. His rivals have quite good reasons to call him a political opportunist, for he sheltered in the bosom of one whom he ridiculed during most part of his days in power. Yet, politics is not an abode of permanent friends and enemies; all are circumstantial. Regional satraps know in their hearts that Nitish only has stature among them to challenge the Modi hegemony.   

If he wins Bihar elections, Nitish will emerge a counterfoil of Modi immediately. If he goes down fighting, Nitish will still be in the reckoning. Bihar will have another chance to leave its mark on national political discourse and, hence, the October polls have significance much larger to its local issues. 

                                                               *****

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Five percent politician

NOT many months ago, a chief minister snubbed his senior ministerial colleague in a Cabinet meeting in such a manner that tears rolled out in torrents from the swollen eyes of the poor soul. In politics, tables turn often, and, fortune too.

The tearful man, that day, is now chief minister of Bihar -- Jitan Ram Manjhi -- and his tormentor then was an aspiring Prime Minister, until May this year -- Nitish Kumar. And after the turning of the wheel, Manjhi is paying back in kind for what all he got for over a decade from his political master.

Just another day, Nitish Kumar showed up in New Delhi in the august company of Shivpal Singh Yadav, who has many identities besides that of a brother of Mulayam Singh Yadav and senior minister in Akhilesh Yadav Cabinet, but his fame is for his being a popular political "goonda" of Uttar Pradesh. Also giving him the company was Prem Chand Gupta, the man-friday of Lalu Prasad and not known for great virtues. 

A few weeks back Nitish Kumar showed up at a rally of Jat leader Ajit Singh in western UP for political unity of parties smashed by the Narendra Modi wave. That commitment for political unity lasted only a few days, as Mulayam Singh Yadav found no space at his home for the Jat leader. That should sufficiently speak of the political convictions of Nitish Kumar and his restlessness to leapfrog to the national limelight again.

A month after the May verdict on Lok Sabha elections, a mentor and man instrumental in propping up Nitish Kumar as CM of Bihar had this to say: "It was his personal ambition that Nitish helped Narendra Modi's cause in becoming BJP's PM candidate. If we -- JD (U) -- had not snapped ties with the BJP, Modi may not have bulldozed through his party to become the PM candidate. We were a bone stuck in BJP's throat and snapping ties with the party we ourselves helped Modi. It was not ideology but a personal decision to break away from the BJP."

DID Nitish Kumar really believe he could have been a PM candidate? The media is conditioned to patterns, and most believed people can not give majority to a party at the Centre, that too to the BJP. And they drummed up the Nitish Kumar card since 2012 as the acceptable face for the PM post. "Yes, he not only believed, but had started living the dream. And a number of BJP leaders had helped him believe this dream," the mentor-turned-senior leader of the JD (U) told this blogger.  

Nitish Kumar not only lived the dream, but turned destructive to nurse his personal enmity with Narendra Modi. And, he continues to find ways and means to gather the strength to challenge his political turned personal enemy -- Narendra Modi.

"Nitish Kumar never forgives any and can wait for years to take revenge," Sabir Ali, once a close confidante of Nitish Kumar and former Rajya Sabha MP said when asked to spell out five negative features of former Bihar chief minister. His personal ego overwhelms other issues and carries arrogance in party and administrative works, said Ali, while listing the negatives.

On the positive, of course, Ali credits Nitish Kumar to be a pleasant person for whom smile comes naturally. "He told me once that even if a CIA agent spends whole day with him, he would fail to take out any secret," Ali quoted Nitish Kumar having told him about his art of keeping secrets. 

And for that matter, Lalu Prasad never tired of saying for over a decade that "while all have teeth in their mouths, Nitish Kumar had them in his stomach". Lalu Prasad's description was not for Nitish Kumar's art of keeping secrets, but for his guile. But enemy of an enemy is a friend in politics, and both are now family. That bonding obviously has happened after politics took a turn hostile to their brand of politics.

THOSE who have seen Nitish Kumar from close quarters also state that he is a man of few friends. And that cripples his worldview. For that matter, his eyes and ears were two persons for at least a year running into the May Lok Sabha elections -- Pawan Kumar Verma, an unlikely person from the background of Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) and a prominent journalist, who wears and smokes socialism to an extent that the changing wind easily gives him a slip. 

These two made Nitish Kumar believe that the Narendra Modi wave was all about the one pumped through a "blower". And people heard him his denial of changing winds in politics. He had been blinded by the blindness of his two friends. Such blindness is attitudinal for which, sadly, there is hardly any cure.  

Whenever a political biography of Nitish Kumar is written, an apt title for it could be "A political gambler". His belief in politics of arithmetic is religious. And he believed that the combo of Backward-Dalit-Muslims is too tall a wall for any to climb. That Modi not only climbed but smashed it has been spoken and commented enough for any repetition. Religious belief lasts long and still beholds Nitish Kumar.

                                                                                                                                                            

And, hence, he propped Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit, to win back the community, which to his shock, had deserted for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. But the gamble seems to be going haywire. Manjhi soon realized that he had had enough of his master and began shrugging off his shadow. That Bihar is hostage in recent times of drama enacted each day by Manjhi is part of the larger political design. The gap between the pawn (Manjhi) and his master had been so wide in recent days that Sharad Yadav had to dash recently to Patna to build bridges. 

Nitish Kumar is restless to carve out a role for himself in national politics. So, he was in the company of Mulayam Yadav, Lalu Prasad, H D Deve Gowda, Dushyant Choutala and others. 

Chirag Paswan, son of Ram Vilas Paswan and Lok Sabha MP, would largely be considered a political novice. But his take on Nitish Kumar's efforts to reunite the old Janta Dal to counter Narendra Modi is worth taking note of. "All of them have been tigers of their respective territories. If they all come in one cage, the fate of the cage could well be imagined," junior Paswan told this blogger.   

For the moment, tigers invite only skepticism, because two plus two is not necessarily four in politics and that too in India.    

Gandhian folly to herd

History has keys to many riddles of modern times. 

But history bores most, as it has mostly been written by red-clothed men, who owe their intellectual sharpness to propaganda publications shipped from Russia and dumped in various varsities of India.

Most haunting riddle of contemporary India is its over 16 per cent population holding on to the belief that their "religion is in danger".  This danger seems perennial.

And as curtain comes down in another one week over long drawn out election campaign to elect members of the 16th Lok Sabha, there is no denying the fact that Muslims have been used as canon fireballs against BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi. Nonetheless, a tiny lot among the Muslims have bolted and become Modi supporter; but they are too few to matter at all.

Muslim boys playing cricket in Bhagalpur (Bihar)

The Likes of Mamata Banerjee, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Rahul Gandhi  and his mother Sonia Gandhi among others have tried their best to make Muslims believe that Modi would "butcher" them if he were to come to power in New Delhi. That the seemingly "massacres of Muslims will be all around" campaign slogan of non-BJP political parties surely seeks to milk "religion in danger" psyche of the minority community. 

Long into the past, it was a local battle fought and lost by Muslim Nawab of Bengal , Siraj-ud-Daulla, on June 23, 1757 at Plassey, that seeded, arguably, for the first time, "religion in danger" psyche in Muslim minds. Incidentally, Mamata Banerjee finds Mir Jafar literally on her tongue if she has to bash any political dissidence within his Trinamool Congress.       

One hundred and sixty two years later, "religion in danger" was institutionalized in Indian political discourse. And, it was none other than Mohan Das Karam Chand Gandhi, later Mahatma Gandhi, after he became an icon of India's freedom struggle, who made it happen. 

In his eagerness to win over Muslims to freedom struggle movement at a time when Sir Sayyed Ahmed had indoctrinated minority community to become pro-British to help them get government jobs, Gandhi gambled to mix religion and politics to spearhead Khilafat movement (1919-1924) for a cause, which had nothing to do with India and even Turkish Muslims thought otherwise. 

The movement flopped and Gandhi proved himself to be a political novice. Even though the red-clothed historians would see only virtue in that failed experiment, India paid heavy price in just 23 years time, as  Britain ran its surgical knife to dismember the country. What the Greats like Ashoka, Chandragupta Mourya and Akbar had passed on as legacy was squandered off by the deeds and misdeeds of awfully slow freedom movement of India and incompetence of those leading it.   

Ironically, Gandhi may not have seen far into the future to know that a few years later Pakistani Army and numerous militant organizations groomed by Rawalpindi would wreak havoc with their "religion in danger" weapon by allowing and executing massacres of people on a scale never seen in the world history. Gandhi may have just lit a flame, but Muhammed Ali Jinnah first and Gen. Zial-ul-Haque later turned that into a raging fire.

Jinnah with Gandhi

It's important to slip into history for a while, because contemporary politicians seem an ignorant lot.  By keeping alive apprehensions of riots, Muslims in India have been herded, first by Jinnah and later by all and sundry. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign, it has been made like that Narendra Modi is a "rioter par excellence". 

A year back, journalist and playwright, Tehseen Munawer, wrote an open letter to Uttar Pradesh chief minister, Akhilesh Yadav, asking if he could take his kids to his ancestral village on Eid. That he had to write the letter had to do with over 50 communal riots having taken place in Central and eastern UP by them. But that was much before the ever peaceful western UP where Jats and Muslims shared quite symbiotic relations too became hunting ground for blood thirsty men.  

And with so many riots in the past two years under the watch of a "secular" government in Lucknow, mood of Muslims was worthwhile to explore. So, off the Agra-Firozabad highway, Haji Jallo Aloowaale, 75., had a lot to share. 

He claimed that he had been voting for Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) since 1984. "Mulayam ko vote karna Allah ki marzi hai (it's Allah's will that we vote for Mulayam)," said Haji Jallo. But the same Mulayam allowed quite a few riots to take place in UP, did not he?  To this he said: "Mulayam ne Masjid girne nahi dee (Mulyam ensured that the mosque was not demolished)," said Jallo.

Haji Jallo

When asked about who will the Muslims here vote for, Jallo stopped a few young people, including burqa clad women, and demanded to know, whom they would vote for. With one hand resting on the waist and a young burqa clad woman for the company, a young man said "BSP". "Get out, you scoundrels," screamed Jallo, and the young men and women made a hasty retreat, with glare in their eyes.

With contradictions on display, it was prudent to check with others and Ajgar Hussain Quraisi, 45, seemed quite eager to talk. "We will vote for Mulayam, but young Muslims seem tilting toward BSP. The older generation among Muslims are sticking with Mulayam," said Quraisi.

When Modi's name is dropped, it becomes quite evident that Muslims are extra careful this elections not to allow the BJP run away with most number of seats in UP. "Gardan kata sakte haen par Modi ko vote nahi de sakte (We can lose our lives, but can't vote for Modi," said Muhammed Momeen in Agra. 

There are also a few Muslims who are opting for BSP, because of their unhappiness with the Samajwadi Party government in Lucknow. "We do not get any benefits: no jobs under MGNREGA, no elderly pension, no health care. We will vote for BSP in this elections," said Dilawar Khan, 35, in Konchhi village in Mainpuri (UP).

Dilawar Khan in Mainpuri (UP)

 A few conversations here and there gave a clear picture that the Muslims are identifying strong candidates against BJP across UP. "In Agra, we will vote for BSP; but in Firozabad our votes will go for SP," said Akbar Khan, 40. In Mathura, Muhammed Saleem, 45, said that Muslims would largely be voting for RLD (Jayant Choudhary against Hema Malini). 

Incidentally, UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam are states where "religion in danger" plank has helped political parties to herd Muslims for many decades. Shahid Siddiqui, a former member of Rajya Sabha and editor of Urdu weekly Nai Duniya, came openly in favour of Modi, and argues against "herd" behaviour of Muslims in elections. 

"My timeline on Twitter is flooded with abuses, but I don't care. If Muslims want to progress, they will have to come out of this herd mindset. If they start voting for the BJP, cadre of the party will also accordingly change their beliefs and outlook about Muslims," said Siddiqui.    

 

Ram Sewak Yadav, 55, a keen political observer in Etah (UP), noted that Muslims are in a position to stop BJP in at least 40 Lok Sabha seats. But, he adds, a sharper polarization of non-Muslims and non-Yadavs in favour of the BJP would nullify all tactical advantage that the minority community had been enjoying in previous elections. And that appears to have happened in UP and also taking place in Bihar and Assam, with a beginning in West Bengal as well. 

Clearly, Muslims, egged on by a host of political parties, appear to be on front-line of the cross-fire against Modi. And, that suits Modi well, as is noted by Nirendra Dev, whose book "Modi to Moditva: An uncensored truth" was first to hit the stand among a few more . "After the post-Godhra riots, Modi during campaign for Assembly elections told me that the more he was bashed being anti-Muslims the more he got stronger; and he does not feel the need to counter that image as projected by his rivals," Dev notes.   

India surely awaits Muslims to bolt. It's animals who herd, not humans. And two hundred and fifty seven years are awfully long time to take a leap of faith. 

Mainstreamed

Last two decades of Indian politics undeniably belonged to regional parties. The phenomenon, which began from south of Vindhyanchal, swept through North and East India after 1990s.  And the political march of regional parties gained force with weakening of the Congress was another tale of a weaker Centre in New Delhi.  

Arguably, massive surge in negativism in Indian politics should be singularly blamed on the weak Centre. A politically weak Prime Minister in Manmohan Singh for 10 years derailed the India story, which a surging youth population yearned for. 

But it will be short-sightedness if only Manmohan Singh was singled out for all the ills of the country. Because, regional parties largely remained slave to their poverty of ideas too. 

The story of Tamil Nadu is that of shoddy governance irrespective of the fact whether DMK or the AIADMK ruled the state. In Andhra Pradesh, beneficiaries of "good governance" of former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu were, arguably, entrepreneurs and landed gentries. Later, YSR Rajshekhar Reddy, with his thrust on foodgrains dole out, took the state further backward even though lakhs of engineering and medical graduates yearned for better lives.     

In North, Bihar under the rule of Lalu Prasad saw "dark age" for two decades. In Odisha, Navin Patnaik, enjoying legacy of his father Biju Patnaik, took refuge in cheap foodgrains dole out for his political security. In Jharkhand, misdeeds of regional parties took the state to worse days.

And the tales of Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 80 Lok Sabha seats with a population close to 22 crore, are utterly saddening. "Mulayam ne londo (Akhilesh Yadav) no saara sadak kha gawo (Mulayam's son eat away all the roads". This is what the people in UP tell about the Samajwadi Party government, which came to power with massive mandate in 2012.

The mercurial Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee had scripted history after decimating the 32 long years of Left rule in West Bengal. But she, after three years of being sworn in as chief minister, knows only one thing of her administration, that blame all for the ills of the state. For backwardness, the Centre and Left are responsible; for rapes women are responsible; for crime Left "goons" are to be blamed and so on.  

But these regional satraps are now feeling the heat as the 2014 Lok Sabha elections are near their last leg. They are finding much to their discomfort, that people in their states are expressing openly their views to vote for "Modi Sarkar". 

"Sab ko mauka diya...ek mauka to Modi ji ko bhi milna chahiye...Behenji to PM nahi banengi (Mayawati) naa...(all have got opportunities...Modi too should get one...Mayawati can't become PM," said a Jatav woman in Mathura, who gave her name as Dolly. Incidentally, Jatavs (Dalit) are the core constituency of BSP.   

Jatavs in Mathura

The road to the political power in New Delhi surely passes through the rugged terrain of UP. And this will be better known to no other but Manmohan Singh, who lasted two full terms on the magnanimous support of both Mulayam and Mayawati.

Incidentally, Akhilesh Yadav rode on massive support of all castes, barring Dalits, to power in Lucknow in 2012. He carried the hope, that he would bring in a change in "backward-oriented" politics of Samajwadis. And, hints in the form of distribution of laptops, tablets were there. But he lost all zeal for governance or may be just got overawed in the presence of too many party stalwarts very soon. 

So, children in Mainpuri study squatting on the floor, because they do not have government schools near their villages. Those who got laptop are still learning MS Office even after one year in the hope of getting a data entry job. A course worth Rs 2,000 would have trained them for the job they appear to be seeking.

A pvt school in Mainpuri

In Puri, an executive engineer of the state rural development department lamented that the poor just did not want to work, as they got almost free rice, and even there were no zeal among them to work under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). 

"Modi PM banega to Gujrat ke tarah yahan bhi tarakki hoga...yahan candidate se hamen matlab nahi...vote Modi ke naam par denge (If Modi becomes PM, even our place will develop like Gujrat. Candidates are not important, as we will vote for Modi only," said Vinod Ghiyar in Mainpuri in UP. Ghiyar was not alone, as most people on the campaign trails in UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, AP, etc., have to say the same about the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Incidentally, it was the Congress, which brought "welfarist" mode of politics at the fore of its governance model. Regional parties gleefully aped the Congress, for that made them to reap the windfalls by tapping into pilferage and seepage. Many ministers in Mayawati government were booked for National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scams by the CBI. The MGNREGA is a much bigger pilferage funded by tax-payers. 

"We are about 1,000 families here and none get jobs under MGNREGA, nor any elderly get pension," said Sarvar Khan in Konchhi village near Etawa in UP.

Muslims in Konchhi village in Mainpuri (UP)

The Modi campaign surrounding development easily swept through length and breadth of the country, as people grew tired of "welfarist" politics of the Congress and regional parties. And, so, Mamata Banerjee seems losing her nerves in West Bengal, while Navin Patnaik was pushed to the wall in Odisha. Mulayam is fighting for survival, while Mayawati seems clueless to the march of Modi bandwagon in her backyard. 

Even though Nitish Kumar did some amount of development works in Bihar during his first term, complacency took over him in the second term. And that set in an anti-incumbency wave in Bihar to the extent that it's a puzzle to find out which Lok Sabha seat in the state has his party, JD (U), in real contention. 

After the JD (U) had parted ways with BJP last year, Sharad Yadav beamed with confidence that regional parties would win half of the 545 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. In the winter of his political career, Yadav seems pushed to third position in his Madhepura Lok Sabha seat. 

And, writing on the wall is that regional parties are no more in a position to stop the Modi juggernaut. 

Narendra Modi bike rally in Etah (UP)

While the Congress went into the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign in a defeatist manner, larger story is the wilting of regional parties. And that augurs well for Indian democracy, as the country appears set to leave behind the political legacy of the last two decades, that of the caste and linguistic identities weakening the march of the India story. 

Chasing Indira mirage

Political icons outlast their lives. They are more powerful even long after they are dead. 

John F Kennedy is still powerful in memories of Americans. That Bill Clinton during his first bid in the US Presidential elections got quite a leg up, after Americans found that he looked like Kennedy is being talked about far from Washington and in the unlikely land of mother of all democracy, that India is, should not come as surprise. Because what Kennedy was for America, Indira Gandhi was for India.

And the last hope of Congress and of Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and also of numerous other dynasties in India seem pinned in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Even before the noise in Congress for Priyanka becomes louder, her fans are growing in numbers among leaders of regional parties.  

That BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has emerged as the numero-uno threat to dynasty is being admitted in the political corridor and with quite considerable concern. Modi seems to have taken BJP to such places where the party never existed and that makes him a foe of regional forces as well. 

Arguably, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has lost his political plot. And as if Indian politics is still that gripping soap-opera, his sister and occasional campaigner Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is showing quite an eagerness to jump into politics. 

It will be a mistake not to see a pattern, because there is a clear orchestration to prop up her into the political arena.

"Rahul kuch jyaada hi make-up kar liya tha...bilkul babua lag raha tha...16 ke baad ham khul kar bolenge ki Priyanka ko leading role lena chahiye (Rahul looks a kid...after 16th May, we will openly demand a larger role for Priyanka," said a top ranking Samajwadi Party leader, who liasen with top Congress leaders.

Regional parties have thrived with the weakening of the Congress during the last three decades. They built dynastic political parties on caste identities and survived even after they faced corruption charges. 

But the lurking decimation of Congress in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections is being seen as a clear threat to various dynasties. They apprehend that if Nehru-Gandhi dynasty can be politically made irrelevant, they will face the similar fate in coming months or years. And, hence, it makes a strong case for rallying behind Priyanka.

"India is full of emotional people. Priyanka styles on Indira's lines. People can flock to her if she jumps into active politics," confided a seasoned politician. 

From Jammu and Kashmir to Punjab to Haryana to Uttar Pradesh to Odisha to Jharkhand, Indian democracy tells the sorry tale of electoral politics being hijacked by dynasties. While Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru pushed his daughter Indira Gandhi into politics without a clear motive to establish a dynasty, she later did make it happen in 1980s. 

And since then the beneficiaries of the JP movement formed dynasties of their own. So, Mulayam Singh Yadav clan in Uttar Pradesh, Lalu Prasad in Bihar, Devi Lal in Haryana, Shibu Soren in Jharkhand established their hegemony in their respective states. 

But the rise of Narendra Modi has sent shock waves in these dynasties. "After decimating the Gandhi dynasty, Modi will next target dynastic politics in states. He poses serious threats to all those who have carved out political dynasties on caste identities. 

Therefore, all such leaders will make a beeline to demand a larger role for Priyanka after the verdict for the Lok Sabha elections is out," confided a senior Samajwadi Party leader.Arguably, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra could be an easy target for Modi to further crush the Congress. 

"Will she not being a Mrs Vadra prove counterproductive for the Congress?" To this, the reply comes: "This is a land where the likes of A Raja wins with record margin. So, being Mrs Vadra does not matter much. People are emotional and if Priyanka can reinvent herself as Indira, there could be a recovery," said one advocating a larger role for her.

Incidentally, a weak Congress gains a lot of friends. And in the coming months the Congress may be pleasantly surprised to find a lot of new friends. They may also like to do business together. And that will happen because when faced with an existential crisis, lesser foes do not mind joining hands together. 

Thus, Navin Patnaik can have an understanding with Congress, as BJP beings to make deep inroad in Orissa. Mamata Banerjee may also revive her relations with Congress, as ground reports suggest BJP likely to fetch a minimum 15 per cent vote share in West Bengal in the Lok Sabha elections. Also, Mulayam will have no choice but to seek help from the Congress to keep the rising BJP in UP at bay.  

But the Congress will not be in a hurry to launch Priyanka into active politics so soon. That Rahul will get another five years to re-build the Congress is acknowledged in the party. And, therefore, the Congress will like to titillate the people with Priyanka's name for a while. 

You don't run all your best horses in the same race.

Feasting on instability

Trust Jats to give the most rustic one-liner. And one such was on the offer in Amroha. "Garib ki biwi sabki bhabhi aur amir ki sabki chachi (poor man's wife is universal sister-in-law, while that of a rich man's is an aunt". That was in reply by a Jat leader to a query that Ajit Singh of Rashtriya Lok Dal could again go begging to the BJP after the elections. 

Ramvilas Paswan, Udit Raj, Chirag Paswan

Ram Vilas Paswan could well claim to have the best nose in the political circle to sniff which way the wind is blowing. He did not disappoint his reputation. And after 12 long years of BJP bashing, Paswan is singing praises for Narendra Modi.

"Barah saal me yug badal jaata hai (an era changes in 12 years time)" is what Paswan has to say to volley of questions on his claims of "secularism" and volt-face. It was in 2002 that Paswan had quit Atal Bihari Vajpayee Cabinet just after the post-Godhra riots broke out. 

Though the world thought that Paswan had quit the Cabinet over the issue of alleged state involvement in Gujrat riots, he was rather at that time sulking for having been given the least important ministry. And to top all BJP leader Arun Jaitely had reportedly shouted at him in one of the Cabinet meeting. Also, Pramod Mahajan was alive then, who had the reputation of a no-nonsensical approach and is said to have the most bitter tongue.

But politics is an art in which there is nothing permanent. There is no permanent enemy too and whatever is seen is just for public perception. If not convinced, one may recall Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh joining hands just before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. That was for political convenience and once the experiment did not yield desired results Kalyan Singh was dumped in quick time on the eve of the tabling of the Babri mosque demolition report in the Parliament.

Ajit Singh of the RLD is known as a fox in the political circle. Same is said of K Chandra Shekhar Rao of the Telangana Rashtria Samiti (TRS). They are not just a few but many in Indian politics and thrive with the weakening of the national parties. And they exact a heavy price from not only the large party with whom they align but also the people at large. 

Sharad Pawar led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had a tally of 17 seats in the 15th Lok Sabha. But the kind of clout he enjoyed in the Manmohan Singh Cabinet is envious. Under his pressure the government few weeks before announcement of elections approved a Rs 6,600 crore bailout package to the sugar mills, which they will use to pay the sugarcane growers but the banks will give money to them interest free. There is no free lunch and so the interest burden will be borne by the Central government.     

Ajit Singh on the other hand claims to have pressurized the Union Cabinet to approve the reservation in

An RLD rally at Amroha

government jobs for Jats. Now, the Jats are in the Other Backward Caste category (OBC). The caste, which is a land owning community and prosperous by all accounts, will vie with other OBCs for a pie in the reserved quota for jobs. They are not only prosperous farmers but have always been a socially dominant community. And, thus, they do not meet the criteria of social deprivation to have been considered at all for the "positive discrimination" power of the Constitution. 

But politics defies all logic. And, hence, an upper caste Jat is now a backward community. They now compete with Yadavs for benefits from the government. And thus one hears that rant in an RLD rally, that Jats have not got anything from the Samajwadi government in Lucknow, "which is catering only to Yadavs and Muslims".   

And what compelled Ram Vilas Paswan to go with an "upper caste" party. He himself gives the answer, that "Nitish Kumar created Mahadalit and left out Paswans only". He is apparently following in the footsteps of the Congress and Mayawati's BSP, that Upper Castes and Dalits make for natural political ally. That Dalits are not exploited by the Brahmins but by those who are in the category of OBCs is a well known fact and part of India's political tradition. 

Coming back to the Jat saying on poor man's wife, it's quite evident that the popular saying has now lost touch with the hardcore political reality. Now, the so called "poor man's wife" milks the party, which falls short of the number in the Lok Sabha. 

Summer of 2012

Pranab Mukherjee's nomination for Presidential election has cast a shadow over the political process, which is fraught with many ramifications.

Indian summer of 2012 will stay in memory for long. A lot of political drama took place in New Delhi, while more may also unfold. Aftereffects of the way India's next President has been chosen may be felt for a long time. Authorities have been challenged and belittled.

Pranab Mukherjee has impressive political experience matched by few

Seventy two hours after two regional kshatraps -- Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee -- outmaneuvered UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi in picking India's next Presidential candidate, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee profusely thanked all for showing trust in him. 

Another forty eight hours later the self-declared crusader against corruption -- Arvind Kejriwal -- cast his doubt on Mukherjee. He tweeted that there are serious allegations of corruption against Mukherjee. He had earlier done what no politicians had dared to do by accusing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of corruption. 

Kejriwal may not be just a stone pelter. He is standing up to the might of the establishment. It's not a joke. 

Mulayam Singh Yadav has gone on records to say that he pressured the Congress to declare Mukherjee's name. What he is not spelling out is that he played his role in the act which might have been scripted by Mukherjee himself. As a politician with tonnes of experience in outsmarting others, Mukherjee may have known that Sonia Gandhi could have cut short his journey to Raisina Hill. 

Authority of Sonia Gandhi has clearly been belittled. She is stated to have met Mulayam Singh Yadav twice in those 72 hours. This was a job that her political advisor Ahmed Patel did all these years. If Mukherjee was not her choice and she was forced to name him, then her political hold has clearly diminished. The perception of weakened political grip would make her vulnerable. This is a bad news for Congress.

The UPA-II has been damned as one of the most bureaucratic government that India ever saw. Likes of P Chidambaram, Kapil Sibbal and Salman Khurshid represent UPA-II. Commentators have already written their political obituaries. 

Mukherjee is one last political face surviving in UPA-II. His exit would strip UPA-II of all political credibility. Though he rushed to welcome Ramdev at airport and watched while scores of CAG indicated scams unfolded, Mukherjee still blunted all round political attacks on UPA-II so far. 

Mukherjee's absence from treasury benches in Lok Sabha will surely make UPA-II a sitting duck. 

Irony is that after a semblance of consultation on Presidential election, which included Sonia Gandhi's talks with Ajit Singh, Ram Vilas Paswan, T R Balu -- consensus is being thrusted on Opposition NDA on Mukherjee's name. Worse is that the NDA is wavering in calling the bluff. Therefore, Mamata Banerjee has rightfully emerged as the true voice of dissent.

Positioning of 2014 or a mid-term poll has already begun. NDA, which looked as if dead for some years, all of a sudden appear netting many friends. Summer of 2012 will prolong, as even Monsoon wants so.