A mighty slump

That pampered lots are supremely blessed with power to self-destruct is surely a hard truth of life. Such individuals leave stories largely unheard, but those in public life leave telling tales to be told and re-told. 

And Nitish Kumar, a Prime Ministerial candidate till not long ago, has been such a masterly phenomenon of political rise and fall, that Shakespeare might have found in him a tragedy king. Political commentators can not deny being in love with him even if he is being denounced for his masterly swing to casteism from being a development icon.

Incidentally, RJD chief Lalu Prasad was political mentor of Nitish Kumar during the march of Mandal politics, which swept through Gangetic belt in 1990s. When Lalu Prasad had to quit as chief minister of Bihar, after being charge-sheeted in fodder scam, he thrust his illiterate wife, Rabri Devi, onto the state. 

That act of political expediency may have extended Lalu Prasad's reign in Bihar for a few more years, but a whole generation grew up with a sense of inferiority complex thereafter. The Congress president Sonia Gandhi aped Lalu Prasad in 2004 to pick Manmohan Singh, who was not an illiterate but an economist of high repute. But another generation has grown up with gloom during the last 10 years.

Political scientists may need to invent a term to explain this art of political expediency of thrusting somebody for personal exigency. Because, it's spreading like a virus, which has infected Nitish Kumar now. 

Some extraordinary commentators could go to the extent of claiming the anointing of Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit hailing from Most Backward Caste (MBC), as a political masterstroke of NItish Kumar to checkmate rise of BJP in Bihar. But that will be too shallow to last a few days in public discourse. 

Jitan Manjhi

Because, Bihar inherently has a restlessness, which may not be in other states, to turn people repugnant with the very idea of casteism imprisoning governance in the state. By the way, Manjhi's administrative skill was so well acknowledged by Nitish Kumar, that he could not find for him a better ministry than the SC&ST welfare.  

Incidentally, Nitish Kumar is not the only chief minister who faced an electoral rout in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. He is in the company of Omar Abdullah and Akhilesh Yadav. But they have reacted differently to the verdict.

In fact, Omar Abdullah is seeking to undo mistakes of his government and tweeted his e-mail id to connect with the people to learn why was he punished in such a manner. Akhilesh Yadav is seeking to shrug off the shadow of his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and assert his leadership. 

But Nitish Kumar chose to relinquish the office, while "taking moral responsibility". His party chief Sharad Yadav has not yet resigned. Arguably, it can also not be ruled out that Nitish Kumar could not digest the idea of his arch-rival Narendra Modi becoming Prime Minister.

Arguably, the fall and rise in political career of Nitish Kumar and Kahkashan Parveen seem so overlapping to

Kahkashan Parveen

ignore. Parveen, a little known woman from Bhagalpur, first became a municipal corporator a few years ago and since then she has been rising and rising only.

Nitish Kumar first appointed her chairperson of Bihar Commission of Women and a few months earlier shocked most of his party men by sending her to Rajya Sabha. Politically Nitish sought to send the message that he was reaching out to Muslims. He denied Rajya Sabha nominations to party heavyweights Shivanand Tiwari, NK Singh and Sabir Ali.

Within JD (U), leaders and party workers saw Nitish in his full arrogance bloom during Rajya Sabha nomination episode. And, politics is sadly no hunting grounds for arrogant lots. That Nitish was handed over worst electoral defeat confirm him having lost touch with ground realities.

Was not Nitish Kumar hailed a development icon till a few years ago? Did he not win best chief minister awards at the hands of TV channels? Did not the media hail him for turning around a state, which had a long spell of dark age under his predecessors -- Rabri Devi and Lalu Prasad? Did not the Planning Commission of India certify Bihar of having achieved highest State GDP growth among all states?

Questions are too many and they should baffle political commentators. Because, Indian democracy in the last two decades has come to reward good governance. And answers of these questions will reveal the narrow world view of Nitish Kumar and his aloofness.

State of roads in states generally give a good measure of the administrative skills of chief ministers. In his first term, Nitish Kumar won accolades for building good quality roads. His models of monitoring on real time basis was also replicated in other states.

Incidentally, by the time Nitish went to people for another mandate in 2010, he even claimed that any one can reach any part of the state from Patna in a flat six hours.

But claims were highly exaggerated. Incidentally, this blogger, believing Nitish's words, could reach half the distance that chief minister had stated in 12 hours time a year ago. And the ride had been so bumpy, that one would need full two days of rest to recover from agony of road journey.

Public at large blame Nitish Kumar in the state for having destroyed education in schools by using teacher recruitment to further his political interests. Law and order situation improved and later nose-dived.

"Nitish did not take drive against criminals in  the state to its logical conclusion. The man who was credited to have put an end to lawlessness during Lalu-Rabri time soon lost favour with Nitish and was transferred to police training institute. Nitish is running a bureaucratic government where dissent is not heard," said Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lallan Singh during a conversation with this blogger two years ago. At that time Lallan Singh, after being the close confidante of Nitish Kumar, was also thrown out of the inner court of former Bihar chief minister.

And clear pitfall of a bureaucratic government is wide-spread corruption. So, greasing palms of all kinds of people in government jobs, from a beat constable to a clerk to higher ups, is the story of the second tenure of Nitish Kumar.

Surrounded by sycophants in Patna and encouraged by adulation of New Delhi media, Nitish Kumar apparently thought of himself as Navin Patnaik of Odisha, that there was no alternative to him in the state.

But his belief was utterly out of place. And he chose to self-destruct by snapping 17 years alliance with the BJP. That he did because he was convinced that weakening of the Congress meant revival of the idea of Third Front, and the BJP not being a pan-India party could at best get 180 Lok Sabha seats.

And, therefore, the JD (U) had supported Pranab Mukherjee in Presidential elections even while the BJP backed Purno Sangma. "After next year's elections, there will be instability at the Centre and, hence, we need someone like Pranab Mukherjee in Rashtrapati Bhavan," JD (U) chief Sharad Yadav had explained why his party was not going along with the BJP.

The 2014 verdict shattered all hopes of instability at the Centre. Nitish Kumar misjudged people's minds. And that he did, because he was disconnected. Incidentally, he's repeating his mistake, that of thinking that key to power in Bihar is through the caste arithmetic.

Those who do not learn from their mistakes are condemned as fools of worst orders. And Nitish should know that Indian politics has left behind arithmetic and is now flying with wings of hope.

To catch this ride he needs a mighty leap of faith, but he has chosen a mighty slump instead. 

Return of anarchists

A week is long time in politics, the intellectually gifted British Premier Harold Wilson had said about 75 years ago. On January 21 and 22, the new star of Indian democracy -- Arvind Kejriwal -- improved upon Wilson's thought. Even two days are quite long time in politics .

And in those two days Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) discovered that it's biggest campaigner, the media, was now actually baying for its blood. The trigger, off course, was the "Yes, I am an anarchist" claim of the wonder-boy of Indian politics.

Indeed, anarchism as a socio-political platform had long been subsumed by the communists. After the Bolshevik revolution, the Russian rulers had defeated them in some here and there wars. But the anarchists around the world continue to keep raising their voices particularly in Europe and America. That they have set their feet on the Indian soil is clearly a revelation. 

If not for a pattern, Kejriwal's declaration would have been ignored for an off the cuff remark. But a week earlier, his colleague, Prashant Bhushan, in an interview with The Asian Age, lamented that democracy in India is "minimal". That more than 70 per cent of eligible voters cast their votes in elections passed off as "minimal" democracy for Bhushan allows a pattern to take a shape. This lawyer of quite an eminence, who believes that there should be a referendum on deployment of security forces in Maoist affected areas and Jammu and Kashmir, is a theorist and along with Yogendra Yadav forms the ideological backbone of the AAP. 

And for that matter, one needs to revisit the anarchist school of thought, which took birth in as early as six century BC. One may also be surprised to know that Jesus Christ was considered among the initial advocate of anarchism. Conceptually, anarchism is a political philosophy that advocates stateless societies, with stress on self-governed voluntary institutions, and, for their followers, state is an unnecessary, undesirable and harmful institution.

The AAP's manifesto states that the MP/MLA Area Local Development Fund should be scrapped and that should be given to the Mohalla (locality) committee. A crucial fallback to anarchist thought could be seen here and for that matter Kejriwal's self-description was not an off the cuff remark. 

Zuangzi, who was among the initial anarchist theorist, believed "a petty thief is put in jail but a great brigand becomes the ruler of a nation". He must have been read by Kejriwal and Bhushan with much delight, as AAP's pamphlets hint a throwback to Zuangzi's thoughts. 

More important is Pierre-Joseph Proudhan, a French and first self-proclaimed anarchist, who published

"What is property" in 1840. His theory of "spontaneous order" wherein organisation emerges through peaceful evolution imposing its own idea of order without a central coordinator against the wills of individuals will find a parallel in the agitation of Somnath Bharti, Delhi's law minister, whom the AAP has stoutly defended against his racist and unlawful coercion of people of African nations. 

Even Kejriwal, when asked by this blogger in early 2013 on accusations against him that he had been spreading too much of negativity in the society without offering a platform to channel people's anger, had stated that "people will spontaneously throw an alternative". That did happen on December 8 and proved him right, but also cements his strong belief in the idea of anarchism. 

Indeed, it's a question worth pondering why people are so much in love with veiled anarchists at least in Delhi. Immediate answer would be that the existing political class had left a lot of political vacuum for new people with an idea of alternative politics to fill in.   

But was not India the land of socialism where the communists could not expand beyond Bengal, Kerala, Tripura and fringe areas of Punjab. That the socialism was so powerful as a political tool, it was enshrined in the Constitutions of India too can not be forgotten .

The political socialism, arguably in the Hindi heartland, emerged strongly, but is surely now gasping for breath. South of Vindhyanchal, politics took shelter behind linguistic identity, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.   

The political heirs of socialist Ram Manohar Lohiya were Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh and Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar. That Viswanath Pratap Singh showed up with a little cameo by arming the political socialism with Mandal identity effectively made the campaign caste centric, and alienated the upper castes, whose leaders, had spearheaded the march of socialism in Indian democracy till then.

Later, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad further shrunk caste based socialism into family owned political enterprises. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, as many as seven members of the Mulayam clan will be contesting elections, while his son, Akhilesh Yadav, and brother, Shivpal Singh Yadav, lead the state. For Lalu, his politics begins with self and ends with wife; and in between his brothers-in-law too appear.

And for that matter, the political class left a huge space for alternative politics; and that being occupied by anarchists is a telling blow to the delivery of the state in the recent years in terms of services and policies.

In the 19th and 20th century, anarchists were organizationally and ideologically crushed by the communists. But the Left, baring China and Russia, is fast becoming a relic of the gone era and that too for a good reason. The Congress in India is at least in its orientation a socialist and centrist party, while the BJP has over the years metamorphosed into a giant ideological body subsuming the best of the socialism while leaning on capitalism. And they being the only two national parties have to face the challenge of anarchists in the coming years.

President Pranab Mukherjee and BJP patriarch L K Advani are the only two political persons alive who can

understand ramifications of anarchists raising their heads in backyard. President knows that the challenge is serious and a threat to India's national interest. Thus he chose the occasion of the address to the nation on the eve of the Republic Day to warn the people against "popular anarchists".

The anarchists were defeated by the collective might of the communists in Europe and Russia. Now, they have to be defeated by the collective will of the people, for they are status quoist and populist at the expanse of the socio-economic growth.  

Summer of 2012

Pranab Mukherjee's nomination for Presidential election has cast a shadow over the political process, which is fraught with many ramifications.

Indian summer of 2012 will stay in memory for long. A lot of political drama took place in New Delhi, while more may also unfold. Aftereffects of the way India's next President has been chosen may be felt for a long time. Authorities have been challenged and belittled.

Pranab Mukherjee has impressive political experience matched by few

Seventy two hours after two regional kshatraps -- Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee -- outmaneuvered UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi in picking India's next Presidential candidate, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee profusely thanked all for showing trust in him. 

Another forty eight hours later the self-declared crusader against corruption -- Arvind Kejriwal -- cast his doubt on Mukherjee. He tweeted that there are serious allegations of corruption against Mukherjee. He had earlier done what no politicians had dared to do by accusing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of corruption. 

Kejriwal may not be just a stone pelter. He is standing up to the might of the establishment. It's not a joke. 

Mulayam Singh Yadav has gone on records to say that he pressured the Congress to declare Mukherjee's name. What he is not spelling out is that he played his role in the act which might have been scripted by Mukherjee himself. As a politician with tonnes of experience in outsmarting others, Mukherjee may have known that Sonia Gandhi could have cut short his journey to Raisina Hill. 

Authority of Sonia Gandhi has clearly been belittled. She is stated to have met Mulayam Singh Yadav twice in those 72 hours. This was a job that her political advisor Ahmed Patel did all these years. If Mukherjee was not her choice and she was forced to name him, then her political hold has clearly diminished. The perception of weakened political grip would make her vulnerable. This is a bad news for Congress.

The UPA-II has been damned as one of the most bureaucratic government that India ever saw. Likes of P Chidambaram, Kapil Sibbal and Salman Khurshid represent UPA-II. Commentators have already written their political obituaries. 

Mukherjee is one last political face surviving in UPA-II. His exit would strip UPA-II of all political credibility. Though he rushed to welcome Ramdev at airport and watched while scores of CAG indicated scams unfolded, Mukherjee still blunted all round political attacks on UPA-II so far. 

Mukherjee's absence from treasury benches in Lok Sabha will surely make UPA-II a sitting duck. 

Irony is that after a semblance of consultation on Presidential election, which included Sonia Gandhi's talks with Ajit Singh, Ram Vilas Paswan, T R Balu -- consensus is being thrusted on Opposition NDA on Mukherjee's name. Worse is that the NDA is wavering in calling the bluff. Therefore, Mamata Banerjee has rightfully emerged as the true voice of dissent.

Positioning of 2014 or a mid-term poll has already begun. NDA, which looked as if dead for some years, all of a sudden appear netting many friends. Summer of 2012 will prolong, as even Monsoon wants so.  

Raisina hill calling

Short-tempered Pranab Mukherjee must now have started believing himself in the reckoning for India's race for next President. He is clearly an old world relic. Seen as a man who carries more weight than he can handle, Mukherjee has reasons to dream that the Congress president Sonia Gandhi gives him a retirement solution in Raisina Hill.  

Since taking over as the Finance Minister, Mukherjee has taken India's economy down the hill in quick time. Economy is in shambles. People are price hit. Employment generation has frozen. Savings of middle class have gone. Necessities of the day are beyond the reach. Still, Mukherjee is the darling of many, who day-dream him as the next President.

New Delhi's disconnect with India is self-evident.

However, Politics does not oblige day-dreamers. Politics is about cold-blooded calculations. 

Gandhi will weigh many a things than thinking of a retiring solution for Mukherjee only. The Congress led UPA is hurtling down. This may outweigh all other reasons. 

Many believe that the UPA has already slipped into the self-dug grave. More people think that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh led UPA-II is busy in digging much deeper grave for the Congress. 

UPA-II's disconnect with the Congress is also quite apparent. Nine out of 10 Congressmen say that they would have to be out of power for quite a long time. It takes some time for people to forget the pain giver. When the world is talking of gloom, Gandhi could not be so insulated. She has to think of future. She has to plan for the prince (Rahul Gandhi).

Late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had arrived unannounced. His mother had clearly not planned for him. Mukherjee had made his ambition clear, when he had stated that the senior most member in the Cabinet should succeed Late Indira Gandhi. However, there was Giani Zail Singh to keep the Family protected. Will Mukherjee be a Zail Singh if a situation like that of 1984 arises? 

Most in the Congress and also in government want Manmohan Singh to retire. For the services that he has done to the nation, he has his claims for Raisina Hill. He has enjoyed unconditional support of the Gandhi family all these years. He will not be a person to betray the trust of the Family, if at all Rahul Gandhi needed a helping hand from the Raisina Hill.

The Congress leaders are of the view, that with Manmohan Singh in Raisina Hill they would have another two years to win back some of the support or attempt to climb out of the self-dug grave. Mukherjee could be the Prime Minister for two years. Even if the Congress is routed in 2014, Rahul Gandhi can concentrate on Mission 2019 with free hand. He will be about 49 years of age by then and would have gathered enough political experience. After sitting in Opposition for five years, the Congress would gain due strength as well.

As one Union minister said that Sonia Gandhi is in a quandary akin to Hamlet. "To be or not to be". The minister may be wrong also. She must have made her decision already.

However, the Congress, as Harish Khare had remarked once, is a status quoist party. The Family does not burn mid-night oil to satisfy the kite flying industry. So, there would not be a surprise if the Congress pulls out of its hat someone like Pratibha Devi Patil.