Eastern approaches

THE western disturbance has blown over north and west parts of India with all its might, plucking electoral fruits in loads. The gust seemingly growing in strength is now seeking eastern approaches. 

Now that the dust is settling on the battleground in western and northern parts of India, moves have begun for the next electoral war zone, that will be played out in Bihar and West Bengal. That the battle would be fierce and bitter is a foregone conclusion. Because the political generals in the eastern battlefield have already begun their acts of fortification to block the western gust.

In 2011, a temperamental street fighter -- Mamata Banerjee -- uprooted the Left regime in West Bengal, which then seemed to have had millions of roots in nooks and corners of the state, and, hardly any one dared to think that such a gigantic tree could be cut to pieces in such a manner that it would wither away in quick time.

But a street fighter hardly thinks beyond its immediate foe. And sometimes the foe even when vanquished lives through its slayer. That the spirit of the Left rule got another lease of life to survive in West Bengal through Banerjee has been the story of the state for the last three years. 

And, thus, even though the CPI (M) and its multi-headed Left may be terminally ill and counting days to irrelevance, its reincarnation had been immediate and swift through the Trinamool Congress. So, Poribartan (change) was a mere slogan.

Protest in Burdwan.

The extent of Saradha Chit Fund scam is only unfolding and has apparently robbed Mamata Banerjee of her famed clean image. Her obsession to herd the Muslim vote bank has unnerved even her ardent supporters. The Burdwan blast at a premise being used by terrorists has shaken the belief of a lot of people. And, the subsequent political campaign with the apparent blessing of Mamata Banerjee to pitch the Muslims and NIA against each other appears to be the turning point in the politics of the state.

THAT West Bengal is turning into Uttar Pradesh is the clear writing on the wall. Since 2012, Uttar Pradesh under Samajwadi Party government saw a brazen "Muslim flexing muscle" political phase spearheaded by senior minister and till 2014 (May) close confidante of Mulayam Singh Yadav -- Azam Khan. And in a span of two years UP reported incidences of over 300 communal riots. 

Azam Khan with blessing of Mulayam Singh Yadav attempted to polarise Muslims in UP. But he and his aka realised to their horror that the BJP set in a reverse polarisation, which they had not thought in their wildest of the dream. By the time Mulayam Singh Yadav dumped Azam Khan, his party was decimated. 

Mamata Banerjee idolized her foe (Left) for its political longevity and stability. She knew that she could emulate the Left only if she herded Muslims, who roughly account for about 30 per cent of the state's population.  If she succeeds in her herding game, she would not need the Congress. And for three years, the Poribartan had been about herding Muslims. The extent and brazenness of this exercise does not have a parallel even in the usual suspect UP.

For about three years, she and her confidante Mukul Roy were the politburo of her party. In May this year, the BJP woke her up from deep sleep by bagging two Lok Sabha seats. The gentle wake up call turned into horror, after the BJP won a byelection for state Assembly. The horror  now threatens to turn into a nightmare. Because, the western gust is not just at her doorstep, but sweeping through her state in a gentle wind, with promises to gain more strength.

Realizing she is in a spot, Mamata Banerjee made Mulul Roy at whose residence she loved to play piano for hours a scapegoat and dumped him. Her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, an MP, is now in the forefront of her party, with insiders sensing birth of another political dynasty. And all those who were keeping distance from her due to Mukul Roy is now enjoying pleasant bout of mood swing of Mamata Banerjee. 

But two years may not be enough to undo a course which ran for three years. For those three years have ended the political monopoly. 

NITISH Kumar trusted his Mahadalit constituency. He believed that Mahadalits and Muslims would ensure his further run in Bihar politics. The May verdict proved, he was wrong. That he did not sense the changing wind was for his two ears being hostage to Pawan Verma and a Delhi based journalist. He sensed too late, that he had lent his ears to those who had no ear to ground. 

He thought, he could survive in Bihar if he could hide behind a political shikhandi and he found one in Jitan Ram

Teachers lathicharhed in Patna

Manjhi, a Mahadalit. Nitish Kumar may have bought a few more days to discover strategy to save his political clout, but his decision to prop up Manjhi pushed Bihar into greater disarray. 

The political caste is changing and is no more herding. And, it has been none other than Dalits, who bolted first. They reason, that they had been electing people from their caste for decades, but barring community pride no other tangible benefit came their ways. And, hence, they voted for the BJP in UP and Bihar in sizable numbers. Therefore, Jitan Ram Manjhi may turn out to be an effective political shikhandi but may not stop the inevitable.

Bihar and West Bengal now host the Great Game of Indian politics.

Turning of the wheel of time

A decade back India's most admired politician Atal Bihari Vajpayee could not believe that the people had rejected him. That six years of "good works" could not impress people seemed beyond his comprehension.

In his moments of disbelief, his friend and colleague Sharad Yadav visited him one evening in 2004 just after the Lok Sabha elections. "Aap bhi haar gaye (you too lost)," Vajpayee sighed at the sight of the socialist. 

"Aapko to maaloom hai ham kis liye haare...(you know why we have lost)," gushed Yadav.

Vajpayee, with a sense of rejection, sat down to chat with his former Cabinet colleague. They concurred, that the NDA government would have retained power in 2004 had Gujrat chief minister Narendra Modi been punished for the post-Godhra riots in 2002.

"This country did not re-elect Vajpayee because he could not act against Modi. People forgot all the good works of Vajpayee and punished him for the (mis)deeds of Modi. Yeh desh Modi ko kabhi PM nahi bana sakta (this country can never make Modi a PM)," Yadav told this blogger last year, after his party, JD (U), had snapped 17 years long relations with the BJP.

Yadav has lost another elections from the same Madhepura Lok Sabha seat in Bihar.

In 2004 he had lost to RJD's Lalu Prasad. Now, he has lost to Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav of the RJD. And, Madhepura where Yadavs consider themselves to be too intellectual to elect a muscleman has exactly done so.

But Vajpayee is no more in his senses to receive Yadav and ask him why he lost another elections. India's most admired politicians for many decades no more recognizes people and at the most he smiles at those who go to meet him.

However, if Vajpayee had been in his senses, he would have again been bewildered to see that India has elected Modi for Prime Ministerial job. That too with a number so stunning, that the whole Opposition may stay in shock for quite longer time.

And with his insight he would have known that his belief in 2004 of having lost re-elections due to post-Godhra riots and his inability to act against the "rogue" chief minister was so off the mark.

That the 2004 NDA defeat had much to do with arrogant "India shining" campaign and sheer arrogance of Pramod Mahajan were lost to majority of media, who were blinded by stereotyped campaign against Modi and now hopefully seeks to rediscover their sight, after the people have given their verdict. 

The wheel of time has turned.

Now, India's most demonized politician for a decade is all set to be sworn in as Prime Minister. He inspires so much of hatred in his rivals, that Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi do not consider proper to take his name on their lips. And true to the character of the Congress, other leaders of the party ape the mother-son duo to the hilt.

But India has moved much beyond the comprehension of Sonia Gandhi and her son. And by the time they would realize that India is no more a country of people seeking free rice and wheat, Modi would have delivered fatal blow to the very roots of the Congress.

An unemployed educated in Bhagalpur, Bihar.

Last two and a half decades of Indian democracy saw willy politicians  putting fetters of "secularism" to the people.

In the garb of protecting India's secularism, these willy politicians institutionalized dynasty in Indian politics. And to perpetuate their "secular" politics and safeguard dynasties, they took an ultra-Left turn for worse. 

The game-plan may have lasted a little longer if not for P V Narsimha Rao opening up India's windows to the world.

That Manmohan Singh was such a gifted Finance Minister under Rao and such a wasted Prime Minister under Sonia Gandhi should surely be a matter of another commentary, but he did help India see enormity of opportunities, which lied on the path of development.

In those frosty years of 1990s, India and its people had seen and read progress made by South-east Asian nations. And they rightly thought and aspired that India too could do much better than the smaller South-east Asian nations. 

Furthermore, Vajpayee gave wings to dreams of teeming millions of people. And then the A P J Abdul Kalam phenomenon happened. This dreamy man made Indians not only dream but even chase them.

And he made a lot of people believe that India would be a developed nation by 2020.

But Vajpayee was ousted, and, with the support of the Left, the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) came to power in 2004. The Left painted the UPA in deep red colour.

The dream of India becoming a developed nation by 2020 was thrown into a dust-bin and the country returned on the path traversed in 1980s.

If the Left was not enough, Sonia Gandhi packed her National Advisory Council (NAC) with ultra-Leftists and jhollawaalas who ran NGOs here and there.

And they believed that ensuring almost free rice and wheat to 75 per cent population of the country was the job for which there should be a government in New Delhi. 

A village in Itawa (UP)

A whole decade was lost. A generation soaked themselves in anguish at the lost opportunities.

The colleges graduated skilled professionals, who sought jobs to sell soaps.

Government stopped recruiting and corporate began laying off.

And India soon had an army of unemployed and under-employed and improperly employed mass of youth cursing each and every one on government and politics.

India had been such a paradox from 2004-14, that the posterity would ask, how could so many fools ruled the country at the same time. And the younger generation knew better than the most, that they could not afford to waste another decade chasing the discarded Russian ways of governance.

In Modi, India has seen a hope to redeem itself. And, he as a true politician had the measure of the pulse of the nation before any one else had. He knew that there is a lot of anger in India, which is aspirational. 

And, the "culprit" who cut short the innings of Vajpayee presented himself as the man who could empathize with anger of the nation and yet jacked up aspirations manifold. But he carried the track-record, which made the people believe each word that he uttered.

"A business house based out of Kolkata had applied online to Gujrat government for setting up a plant in the state," said a senior Samajwadi Party leader, who tried to drive home the point why Modi was connecting with the people.

A couple of days later, mobile phone of the businessman rang and to his hello, the man on the other side said, that he was Narendra Modi speaking. Still in shock, the businessman heard Modi asking him if he could come to Ahmedabad next day for a 2.30 PM appointment.

He readied a suitcase of files to make presentation and met the appointment. As he spread out his files on the table, with Modi sitting on the other side, Gujrat CM told him, that the papers could be put back in the suitcase. 

"This is a three-page MoU, which we have prepared, wherein we have mentioned what all support the state government would provide for your proposed plant. If there is anything missing, you can let us know," Modi told the businessman, who found that there was nothing missing. And the MoU was signed there and then.

"Now, tell me which chief minister in India works like that and if he is able to connect with the people, why should any one complaint," the SP leader told this blogger.

Arguably, 2014 verdict is a body blow to practitioners of politics of secularism in Gangetic plains of UP and Bihar. The only other state where this brand of politics could survive even after the Modi Tsunami is West Bengal.

That the mercurial wonder lady of Indian politics has survived Modi onslaught is true, but is surely not going to be her permanent feat. And she will have to face a much bigger push of developmental politics in 2016 state elections, which is written clearly on the wall. 

Some dreams never die.

The wheel of time has turned and has turned against all those who take people for a ride in the name of saving India's "secularism". 

And not only Vajpayee was wrong in diagnosing defeat of NDA in 2004 even his comrade L K Advani has been utterly out of sync with time.

You can't flog one man all years for one riot irrespective of the fact whether he was complicit or not. There has been 179 communal riots under the watch of Akhilesh Yadav in UP since 2012 and still this chief minister is "greatest custodian of secularism".  

Hypocrisy has an expiry date. And it lasts a little longer only in places, where people are hell-bent to commit suicide.

Autocrat, who?

Fortified people are mostly prone to script strategies, which end in self-goals. 

Uniqueness of 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign, running into over two months, is about too many self-goals by the Congress. And, if a self-goal is scored in the very beginning of a game, most likely players become panicky to run helter-skelter thereafter.

And first such self-goal came off in unleashing of a propaganda campaign by Congress to target Narendra Modi as an autocrat and dictator. That came off first from Union minister Jairam Ramesh, who is a key member of "war room" of the Congress and also in-charge of manifesto making committee.

Jairam Ramesh

Ramesh would tell to all ears tuned in to him, that "Modi is a Hitler and that Yashwant Sinha has told him, that he would not be part of Union Cabinet if Gujrat CM became PM". Some journalists fell for the propaganda, who would later say in hushed voices: "Boss, even Hitler ran a very successful campaign to rise to power in Germany."

Propaganda by its very nature impacts minds. And some of them last for decades and some for centuries.  

If not for successful British and American propaganda, history may have recorded Adolf Hitler as a warmonger, who was drunk on colonial envy, and as a megalomaniac and a racist. But the world knows him as a dictator and autocrat. 

Incidentally, dictators seek to prolong their rules even at the cost of national interests. They do not gamble with wars, which could eclipse them. And, Hitler was clearly a gambler, who used people as pawn to play the war game of chess with the British and French colonial powers.  

Arguably, Modi's comparison and even an attempt to bracket him with Hitler should have been dismissed by matured minds as deeds of idiots of the worst order. But, hold and behold, this outrageous propaganda was latched on by the Congress leaders with electric speed. And that laid bare the bankruptcy of ideas in the "war room" of the Congress.

Incidentally, world history has seen most autocrats in the African continent. That clearly reveals a linkage between extreme poverty and authoritarian rule. Some came up in West Asia where power flows from the oil wells. And China is a story of an institutionalized one party rule, which sprang up also because of excessive poverty in the rural areas.

But India does not fit into any of the above mentioned pattern to produce autocrats. Indian culture is too strong a bulwark to allow any such autocrats to gain foothold in the highly fertile lands nourished by so many rivers, that poverty of the kind seen in Africa could be here. That gives an ideological framework to India, which, incidentally, is the most vibrant democracy in the world.

Authoritarian and authoritative are words with contrasting meanings. And Indian political system did produce leaders who were or are authoritative in nature. Two contemporary examples will suffice to explain the subject.

First is that the BSP chief Mayawati. The last press conference of Mayawati was held in her majestic bungalow in New Delhi. Before she came into the conference hall, two men in blue blazers roamed around to see all arrangements were perfect. They were Satish Chandra Mishra and Dara Singh Chouhan (leader of the party in Lok Sabha). 

Mishra would tell camera persons of TV channels to remove the wires attached to loud-speakers, because "Behen ji's sandle could get stuck in". Chouhan also did similar things. While Mayawati spoke for an hour, these two men stood besides reporters as guards. That's the style of functioning of Mayawati, which one can term as that of an authoritative leader.

Second is that of Mamata Banerjee, the mercurial and gutsy leader, who ended 34 long years of Left rule in West Bengal. When Parliament is in session, she is glued to TV channels to keep a watch on performances of her MPs in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.

Bhartruhari Mahatab

While Lok Sabha was discussing Lokpal Bill, Banerjee was glued to TV channels in her office

in Kolkata. Her party was supporting Lokpal Bill. Then she heard Bhartruhari Mahatab, a learned MP of Biju Janata Dal (BJD), punching holes in the Lokpal Bill by highlighting the adverse impact on federal structure. She found merits in his arguments. 

And, so, she rang up Ratan Mukherjee, her pointsman, to connect her to Kalyan Banerjee. But he could not do so, as Lok Sabha was in session and thus the message was not passed, that there was a change of heart in Kolkata. And to her dismay, Kalyan Banerjee passionately Lokpal Bill. But in the evening all hell broke against Kalyan Banerjee. 

The next day when Lokpal Bill was taken up in Rajya Sabha, Ms Banerjee's command was followed by her MPs, who most viciously opposed the legislative proposal. 

Interestingly, Ratan Mukherjee (Ratan Da for Bengali reporters), who had been man-friday of Mamata for over a decade, could not survive mood swings of his leader and is now virtually out of the power equation and staying in New Delhi.  

The first one has never won elections in Uttar Pradesh in succession and the second is struggling to keep her popularity intact just after three years of historic win in West Bengal.

But Modi has won three elections in succession. And, majority of the six crore Gujrati voters are quite educated and well off to elect an "autocrat" for the past 15 years. 

Autocrats can not be popular. Popularity inherently demands appeal among the followers. And people in democracy punishes arrogant politicians with quite ease. That also explains why Nitish Kumar even after delivering reasonably well for first six years of his rule in Bihar seems to have lost the favour of the people in the state. But Modi by all accounts remain a popular leader of Gujrat even after 15 years at the helm of the affairs. 

Flag-bearer of BJP at Buxar

Indians, who take fluency in English for their status symbol, also happens to be most abusive when it comes to usages of words. And, we use terms like "dictator", "Hitler", "autocrat" in a manner as if none other than us know English. 

The 2014 election campaign is seemingly turning out to be the most engaging electoral exercise in India's democratic history. And there will surely be lessons for all of us, besides the Congress and its fortified strategists.  

Gandhian folly to herd

History has keys to many riddles of modern times. 

But history bores most, as it has mostly been written by red-clothed men, who owe their intellectual sharpness to propaganda publications shipped from Russia and dumped in various varsities of India.

Most haunting riddle of contemporary India is its over 16 per cent population holding on to the belief that their "religion is in danger".  This danger seems perennial.

And as curtain comes down in another one week over long drawn out election campaign to elect members of the 16th Lok Sabha, there is no denying the fact that Muslims have been used as canon fireballs against BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi. Nonetheless, a tiny lot among the Muslims have bolted and become Modi supporter; but they are too few to matter at all.

Muslim boys playing cricket in Bhagalpur (Bihar)

The Likes of Mamata Banerjee, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Rahul Gandhi  and his mother Sonia Gandhi among others have tried their best to make Muslims believe that Modi would "butcher" them if he were to come to power in New Delhi. That the seemingly "massacres of Muslims will be all around" campaign slogan of non-BJP political parties surely seeks to milk "religion in danger" psyche of the minority community. 

Long into the past, it was a local battle fought and lost by Muslim Nawab of Bengal , Siraj-ud-Daulla, on June 23, 1757 at Plassey, that seeded, arguably, for the first time, "religion in danger" psyche in Muslim minds. Incidentally, Mamata Banerjee finds Mir Jafar literally on her tongue if she has to bash any political dissidence within his Trinamool Congress.       

One hundred and sixty two years later, "religion in danger" was institutionalized in Indian political discourse. And, it was none other than Mohan Das Karam Chand Gandhi, later Mahatma Gandhi, after he became an icon of India's freedom struggle, who made it happen. 

In his eagerness to win over Muslims to freedom struggle movement at a time when Sir Sayyed Ahmed had indoctrinated minority community to become pro-British to help them get government jobs, Gandhi gambled to mix religion and politics to spearhead Khilafat movement (1919-1924) for a cause, which had nothing to do with India and even Turkish Muslims thought otherwise. 

The movement flopped and Gandhi proved himself to be a political novice. Even though the red-clothed historians would see only virtue in that failed experiment, India paid heavy price in just 23 years time, as  Britain ran its surgical knife to dismember the country. What the Greats like Ashoka, Chandragupta Mourya and Akbar had passed on as legacy was squandered off by the deeds and misdeeds of awfully slow freedom movement of India and incompetence of those leading it.   

Ironically, Gandhi may not have seen far into the future to know that a few years later Pakistani Army and numerous militant organizations groomed by Rawalpindi would wreak havoc with their "religion in danger" weapon by allowing and executing massacres of people on a scale never seen in the world history. Gandhi may have just lit a flame, but Muhammed Ali Jinnah first and Gen. Zial-ul-Haque later turned that into a raging fire.

Jinnah with Gandhi

It's important to slip into history for a while, because contemporary politicians seem an ignorant lot.  By keeping alive apprehensions of riots, Muslims in India have been herded, first by Jinnah and later by all and sundry. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign, it has been made like that Narendra Modi is a "rioter par excellence". 

A year back, journalist and playwright, Tehseen Munawer, wrote an open letter to Uttar Pradesh chief minister, Akhilesh Yadav, asking if he could take his kids to his ancestral village on Eid. That he had to write the letter had to do with over 50 communal riots having taken place in Central and eastern UP by them. But that was much before the ever peaceful western UP where Jats and Muslims shared quite symbiotic relations too became hunting ground for blood thirsty men.  

And with so many riots in the past two years under the watch of a "secular" government in Lucknow, mood of Muslims was worthwhile to explore. So, off the Agra-Firozabad highway, Haji Jallo Aloowaale, 75., had a lot to share. 

He claimed that he had been voting for Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) since 1984. "Mulayam ko vote karna Allah ki marzi hai (it's Allah's will that we vote for Mulayam)," said Haji Jallo. But the same Mulayam allowed quite a few riots to take place in UP, did not he?  To this he said: "Mulayam ne Masjid girne nahi dee (Mulyam ensured that the mosque was not demolished)," said Jallo.

Haji Jallo

When asked about who will the Muslims here vote for, Jallo stopped a few young people, including burqa clad women, and demanded to know, whom they would vote for. With one hand resting on the waist and a young burqa clad woman for the company, a young man said "BSP". "Get out, you scoundrels," screamed Jallo, and the young men and women made a hasty retreat, with glare in their eyes.

With contradictions on display, it was prudent to check with others and Ajgar Hussain Quraisi, 45, seemed quite eager to talk. "We will vote for Mulayam, but young Muslims seem tilting toward BSP. The older generation among Muslims are sticking with Mulayam," said Quraisi.

When Modi's name is dropped, it becomes quite evident that Muslims are extra careful this elections not to allow the BJP run away with most number of seats in UP. "Gardan kata sakte haen par Modi ko vote nahi de sakte (We can lose our lives, but can't vote for Modi," said Muhammed Momeen in Agra. 

There are also a few Muslims who are opting for BSP, because of their unhappiness with the Samajwadi Party government in Lucknow. "We do not get any benefits: no jobs under MGNREGA, no elderly pension, no health care. We will vote for BSP in this elections," said Dilawar Khan, 35, in Konchhi village in Mainpuri (UP).

Dilawar Khan in Mainpuri (UP)

 A few conversations here and there gave a clear picture that the Muslims are identifying strong candidates against BJP across UP. "In Agra, we will vote for BSP; but in Firozabad our votes will go for SP," said Akbar Khan, 40. In Mathura, Muhammed Saleem, 45, said that Muslims would largely be voting for RLD (Jayant Choudhary against Hema Malini). 

Incidentally, UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam are states where "religion in danger" plank has helped political parties to herd Muslims for many decades. Shahid Siddiqui, a former member of Rajya Sabha and editor of Urdu weekly Nai Duniya, came openly in favour of Modi, and argues against "herd" behaviour of Muslims in elections. 

"My timeline on Twitter is flooded with abuses, but I don't care. If Muslims want to progress, they will have to come out of this herd mindset. If they start voting for the BJP, cadre of the party will also accordingly change their beliefs and outlook about Muslims," said Siddiqui.    

 

Ram Sewak Yadav, 55, a keen political observer in Etah (UP), noted that Muslims are in a position to stop BJP in at least 40 Lok Sabha seats. But, he adds, a sharper polarization of non-Muslims and non-Yadavs in favour of the BJP would nullify all tactical advantage that the minority community had been enjoying in previous elections. And that appears to have happened in UP and also taking place in Bihar and Assam, with a beginning in West Bengal as well. 

Clearly, Muslims, egged on by a host of political parties, appear to be on front-line of the cross-fire against Modi. And, that suits Modi well, as is noted by Nirendra Dev, whose book "Modi to Moditva: An uncensored truth" was first to hit the stand among a few more . "After the post-Godhra riots, Modi during campaign for Assembly elections told me that the more he was bashed being anti-Muslims the more he got stronger; and he does not feel the need to counter that image as projected by his rivals," Dev notes.   

India surely awaits Muslims to bolt. It's animals who herd, not humans. And two hundred and fifty seven years are awfully long time to take a leap of faith. 

Mainstreamed

Last two decades of Indian politics undeniably belonged to regional parties. The phenomenon, which began from south of Vindhyanchal, swept through North and East India after 1990s.  And the political march of regional parties gained force with weakening of the Congress was another tale of a weaker Centre in New Delhi.  

Arguably, massive surge in negativism in Indian politics should be singularly blamed on the weak Centre. A politically weak Prime Minister in Manmohan Singh for 10 years derailed the India story, which a surging youth population yearned for. 

But it will be short-sightedness if only Manmohan Singh was singled out for all the ills of the country. Because, regional parties largely remained slave to their poverty of ideas too. 

The story of Tamil Nadu is that of shoddy governance irrespective of the fact whether DMK or the AIADMK ruled the state. In Andhra Pradesh, beneficiaries of "good governance" of former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu were, arguably, entrepreneurs and landed gentries. Later, YSR Rajshekhar Reddy, with his thrust on foodgrains dole out, took the state further backward even though lakhs of engineering and medical graduates yearned for better lives.     

In North, Bihar under the rule of Lalu Prasad saw "dark age" for two decades. In Odisha, Navin Patnaik, enjoying legacy of his father Biju Patnaik, took refuge in cheap foodgrains dole out for his political security. In Jharkhand, misdeeds of regional parties took the state to worse days.

And the tales of Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 80 Lok Sabha seats with a population close to 22 crore, are utterly saddening. "Mulayam ne londo (Akhilesh Yadav) no saara sadak kha gawo (Mulayam's son eat away all the roads". This is what the people in UP tell about the Samajwadi Party government, which came to power with massive mandate in 2012.

The mercurial Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee had scripted history after decimating the 32 long years of Left rule in West Bengal. But she, after three years of being sworn in as chief minister, knows only one thing of her administration, that blame all for the ills of the state. For backwardness, the Centre and Left are responsible; for rapes women are responsible; for crime Left "goons" are to be blamed and so on.  

But these regional satraps are now feeling the heat as the 2014 Lok Sabha elections are near their last leg. They are finding much to their discomfort, that people in their states are expressing openly their views to vote for "Modi Sarkar". 

"Sab ko mauka diya...ek mauka to Modi ji ko bhi milna chahiye...Behenji to PM nahi banengi (Mayawati) naa...(all have got opportunities...Modi too should get one...Mayawati can't become PM," said a Jatav woman in Mathura, who gave her name as Dolly. Incidentally, Jatavs (Dalit) are the core constituency of BSP.   

Jatavs in Mathura

The road to the political power in New Delhi surely passes through the rugged terrain of UP. And this will be better known to no other but Manmohan Singh, who lasted two full terms on the magnanimous support of both Mulayam and Mayawati.

Incidentally, Akhilesh Yadav rode on massive support of all castes, barring Dalits, to power in Lucknow in 2012. He carried the hope, that he would bring in a change in "backward-oriented" politics of Samajwadis. And, hints in the form of distribution of laptops, tablets were there. But he lost all zeal for governance or may be just got overawed in the presence of too many party stalwarts very soon. 

So, children in Mainpuri study squatting on the floor, because they do not have government schools near their villages. Those who got laptop are still learning MS Office even after one year in the hope of getting a data entry job. A course worth Rs 2,000 would have trained them for the job they appear to be seeking.

A pvt school in Mainpuri

In Puri, an executive engineer of the state rural development department lamented that the poor just did not want to work, as they got almost free rice, and even there were no zeal among them to work under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). 

"Modi PM banega to Gujrat ke tarah yahan bhi tarakki hoga...yahan candidate se hamen matlab nahi...vote Modi ke naam par denge (If Modi becomes PM, even our place will develop like Gujrat. Candidates are not important, as we will vote for Modi only," said Vinod Ghiyar in Mainpuri in UP. Ghiyar was not alone, as most people on the campaign trails in UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, AP, etc., have to say the same about the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Incidentally, it was the Congress, which brought "welfarist" mode of politics at the fore of its governance model. Regional parties gleefully aped the Congress, for that made them to reap the windfalls by tapping into pilferage and seepage. Many ministers in Mayawati government were booked for National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scams by the CBI. The MGNREGA is a much bigger pilferage funded by tax-payers. 

"We are about 1,000 families here and none get jobs under MGNREGA, nor any elderly get pension," said Sarvar Khan in Konchhi village near Etawa in UP.

Muslims in Konchhi village in Mainpuri (UP)

The Modi campaign surrounding development easily swept through length and breadth of the country, as people grew tired of "welfarist" politics of the Congress and regional parties. And, so, Mamata Banerjee seems losing her nerves in West Bengal, while Navin Patnaik was pushed to the wall in Odisha. Mulayam is fighting for survival, while Mayawati seems clueless to the march of Modi bandwagon in her backyard. 

Even though Nitish Kumar did some amount of development works in Bihar during his first term, complacency took over him in the second term. And that set in an anti-incumbency wave in Bihar to the extent that it's a puzzle to find out which Lok Sabha seat in the state has his party, JD (U), in real contention. 

After the JD (U) had parted ways with BJP last year, Sharad Yadav beamed with confidence that regional parties would win half of the 545 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. In the winter of his political career, Yadav seems pushed to third position in his Madhepura Lok Sabha seat. 

And, writing on the wall is that regional parties are no more in a position to stop the Modi juggernaut. 

Narendra Modi bike rally in Etah (UP)

While the Congress went into the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign in a defeatist manner, larger story is the wilting of regional parties. And that augurs well for Indian democracy, as the country appears set to leave behind the political legacy of the last two decades, that of the caste and linguistic identities weakening the march of the India story. 

Another brick in the wall

Hero worshiping and myth building are historically intrinsic to Indian psyche. And much of the air-thumping in Delhi is part of a pattern. That the people so joyously are soaking themselves in the opium of delusion is also quite normal and those having a taste of history know it well. 

Those who suffer from the disease called "short memory" may just recall a "hawai-chappal" and cotton

sari wearing woman in Mamata Banerjee uprooting and trampling over the more than three decades of the Left rule in West Bengal not long ago. She and the people of West Bengal had made history then.

Banerjee took just a little over a couple of years after the Nandigram killings to lay the graveyard of the Left rule led by the CPI (M). She rode on the slogan of "Ma, Mati, Manush". That the urban intelligentsia now seeks to distance themselves from her, who holds on to power with her strength in rural Bengal, is another story.   

Arvind Kejriwal, an NGO wallah before April 2011, head-hunted Anna Hazare to give legitimacy to the Jan Lokpal Bill, drafted by him in cohort with the ultra-judiciary activist Prashant Bushan. And the Gandhian did not disappoint the former tax officer and parted ways with him but before that he gifted the self-stated angry man the key to power in Delhi.

Kejriwal is now sworn in as chief minister and among others he has also taken oath not to be vindictive (maen kisi dwesh ke bhavana se kaam nahi karunga). This makes him quite a hypocrite, for he has been trumpeting that he would send the Congress ministers to jail. His sound bytes since December 8 have been sliced with vindictiveness only.

The lens of hypocrisy has not yet been applied on Kejriwal in any serious manner. About a year back, he began admitting with journalists, including this blogger, that Anna Hazare had been managed by the Congress. But for public consumption he has created a facade that he still worships Anna and that those close to the Gandhian have made a wall for him to block him directly connecting with him. He invites the accusation of being a hypocrite for being untruthful about his relations with Anna Hazare. 

Neither Anna is Mahatma Gandhi nor Kejriwal is a Nehru, as the social media paid volunteers of Aam Aadi Party would like emotional Delhi'ites to believe. 

Those who are blessed with good memory may recall that a couple of days after the people in Delhi had voted, Hazare in his presser reiterated that he had not been convinced by the explanation given by Kejriwal about the funds raised in his name. Anna also maintained that he could be dragged to court because of Kejriwal, who without his authorization sold SIM Card Scheme in his name. That was just four days before the Delhi verdict became known. And Anna had also shot a letter in which he made quite a lot of veiled accusations of financial impropriety to Kejriwal.

So, the man who gives certificate of being corrupt to others has not been able to convince Hazare on funds collected in his name. But Kejriwal, who is apparently that marketing wizard who has sold combs to bald men, has been treated by media with kid-gloves. That would be quite a generous understatement, as media was the biggest campaigner for Kejriwal and his party. In fact, editors of TV channels took pride to spend a few hours at Jantar Mantar during Anna agitation and to share later that they had had feelings of Tahrir Square in the narrow strip on the Parliament street. One of them wrote a book, with judgments that Anna was another Gandhi.

In those days, it was India Against Corruption (IAC) and there was a core committee, which included a lot of men, including Kejriwal. One of them has a few questions but is apparently shy to come into public.

His questions is very simple: Where did the money come from to publish Kejriwal's book "Swaraj".

One more question deserves to be added. And that is this -- if Swaraj was printed to be sold at Rs 25 a copy, with the motive of spreading the idea of self-rule, why is it now priced at Rs 150 (English paper book), Rs 100 (Hindi) and Rs 53 (e-book). So, now the social cause has been overtaken by the idea of commercial profit. And if that's so, it's more important to find out the source of fund used in publishing the book. 

But more important is to challenge the ideas to which Kejriwal is sworn to. That a very few have been doing is disturbing. 

Let's rewind to October 2011. One fine afternoon, Kejriwal took the microphone at Jantar Mantar and in his trademark fashion asked the crowd to raise their hands if they agreed to his accusations of about 16 Union ministers being corrupt. He was jury, investigating officer and prosecutor too. And what were the evidences Kejriwal submitted to brand 16 ministers corrupt -- Newspaper clippings. 

The crowd, consisting of 200 people, raised their hands and these ministers were pronounced corrupt. The idea of debate is not whether they are corrupt or honest but the manner to institutionalize crowd. This is not only dangerous but suggests heavy ideological leaning to Maoist thought processes. Even the Taliban could seek brotherhood from them. 

And it's also true that if Maoists opt to fight elections they will win Bastar, which is big enough to be a state, effortlessly.

People in Delhi are eating out of the hands of the handful leaders of AAP. They easily subscribe to their claims of newness in politics and a new approach to governance. Not much of critical faculty appears to have been employed to question these claims.

Seven hundred liters of water free for each family in Delhi! Yes, you have heard it many times to have become dumb to it by now. Is it a novel idea? No, just look at Tamil Nadu and check with the perfectionists (DMK and AIADMK) of this art. Mr Kejriwal, you are treading on quite a beaten track. 

And why should half the population of Delhi, who are quite rich and use 500 liters of water a day to clean their cars, should get it free. And that too when Delhi has no source of water and half the year is at the mercy of Haryana to get it. Why should the people of Uttar Pradesh part with water to let Delhi'ites waste it.

Next -- will regularize unauthorized colonies in six months! Had it been so easy Sheila Dikshit would have done it much earlier. How can you have a regular and legal colony where fire tenders can't enter, where ambulances can't reach in quick time, where there is no space for hospitals, schools and dispensaries and playground, if you think that kids need to play in the evening. Can Kejriwal make people in these colonies demolish their houses to create a minimum 20 per cent free space?      

The manifesto that Kejriwal authored is a recipe for misgovernance and irresponsible politics. In fact, the time has come for the Election Commission to ban such freebies, as they are nothing but open bribery to voters. 

But, yes, the 15 years long rule of the Congress had been akin to a piece of paper burning slowly. And in the end it was a burnt, black paper, which needed just a shove to turn into ash. That's no more a warning to the Congress and rather it's an affirmation that this party has lost another state to a regional party, as had been the case in Bihar, UP, West Bengal.

The BJP had been dismissive about the AAP and woke up quite late to name Dr Harsh Vardhan as chief ministerial candidate. The party, which had given Delhi its first Aam Aadmi as CM in Saheb Singh Verma, has been too defensive. No game can be won if no risk is taken, that the BJP should know and its Delhi leaders would do a world of good to themselves to start believing that they understand the city better than their colleagues in the Central BJP.

A lot of drama has taken place in Delhi since April 2011 and rightly the city has a lot of theaters near Mandi Chowk, including that of the National School of Drama.   

But the biggest challenge that India is now faced is the prospect of the country becoming a nation of litigation and litigants. That the judicial activism has enriched the civilian rights is well-known. But the attempt to establish superiority of judiciary over democracy is a dangerous recipe that the likes of Prashant Bhushan and Kejriwal are proposing.

Ironically, it's democracy that allowed the people living and working out of Ghaziabad in UP to win over Delhi. But the same democracy faces encroachments by a super-judicial bureaucracy, given legitimacy by mob driven leaders.  

However, the legal warriors are underestimating the power of democracy. And for that matter the historic Gettysburg speech should be recalled, which gave the concept of democracy, which has only gained in strength all these years.  

Amid the raging civil war in the America, it's said that Abraham Lincoln had locked

himself in a library for about three weeks. Emerging out of it, he gave the famous Gettysburg address, which lasted two and a half minutes. There he explained the underlying principle of democracy, that it's "for the people, by the people and of the people". 

The power of the people may be underestimated by activists at their own peril, as the blows do come and come very swiftly. 

Summer of 2012

Pranab Mukherjee's nomination for Presidential election has cast a shadow over the political process, which is fraught with many ramifications.

Indian summer of 2012 will stay in memory for long. A lot of political drama took place in New Delhi, while more may also unfold. Aftereffects of the way India's next President has been chosen may be felt for a long time. Authorities have been challenged and belittled.

Pranab Mukherjee has impressive political experience matched by few

Seventy two hours after two regional kshatraps -- Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee -- outmaneuvered UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi in picking India's next Presidential candidate, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee profusely thanked all for showing trust in him. 

Another forty eight hours later the self-declared crusader against corruption -- Arvind Kejriwal -- cast his doubt on Mukherjee. He tweeted that there are serious allegations of corruption against Mukherjee. He had earlier done what no politicians had dared to do by accusing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of corruption. 

Kejriwal may not be just a stone pelter. He is standing up to the might of the establishment. It's not a joke. 

Mulayam Singh Yadav has gone on records to say that he pressured the Congress to declare Mukherjee's name. What he is not spelling out is that he played his role in the act which might have been scripted by Mukherjee himself. As a politician with tonnes of experience in outsmarting others, Mukherjee may have known that Sonia Gandhi could have cut short his journey to Raisina Hill. 

Authority of Sonia Gandhi has clearly been belittled. She is stated to have met Mulayam Singh Yadav twice in those 72 hours. This was a job that her political advisor Ahmed Patel did all these years. If Mukherjee was not her choice and she was forced to name him, then her political hold has clearly diminished. The perception of weakened political grip would make her vulnerable. This is a bad news for Congress.

The UPA-II has been damned as one of the most bureaucratic government that India ever saw. Likes of P Chidambaram, Kapil Sibbal and Salman Khurshid represent UPA-II. Commentators have already written their political obituaries. 

Mukherjee is one last political face surviving in UPA-II. His exit would strip UPA-II of all political credibility. Though he rushed to welcome Ramdev at airport and watched while scores of CAG indicated scams unfolded, Mukherjee still blunted all round political attacks on UPA-II so far. 

Mukherjee's absence from treasury benches in Lok Sabha will surely make UPA-II a sitting duck. 

Irony is that after a semblance of consultation on Presidential election, which included Sonia Gandhi's talks with Ajit Singh, Ram Vilas Paswan, T R Balu -- consensus is being thrusted on Opposition NDA on Mukherjee's name. Worse is that the NDA is wavering in calling the bluff. Therefore, Mamata Banerjee has rightfully emerged as the true voice of dissent.

Positioning of 2014 or a mid-term poll has already begun. NDA, which looked as if dead for some years, all of a sudden appear netting many friends. Summer of 2012 will prolong, as even Monsoon wants so.