Rahul Gandhi must win battle within Congress

Rahul Gandhi is back with a Latin American brush of facial touch. Eyes have sunk deep. Curled hair is swept back and oiled. Skin is more tanned. Trademark beard that boasted of careless grey vegetation is gone. Pitch of the voice is moderated. He now looks reflective, with the brash shadow cast off. Gandhi is experimenting, progressing or swinging on the learning curve, amidst wave of personal onslaughts set off from within his party and the outside. He's an enigma that keeps Indian politics enchanted.    

RAHUL Gandhi, former Congress president and the Lok Sabha MP from Wayanad, Kerala, has offered another glimpse into his withdrawn world of thoughts. With YouTube debut, Gandhi has worn the creative attire. He has asked questions. He's seen probing the powerful Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There are subtitles and info-graphics to explain the subject. There is an air of a serious discourse. So, there are maps, backgrounders, anecdotes and contexts to put forth his arguments. And, he stays on China, asking why did Xi Jinping send his soldiers in East Ladakh, for Modi had excessively invested his economic capital in Beijing in past six years at the helms in New Delhi while also as the chief minister of Gujarat.

The three minutes and 38 seconds long video invited rebuttal from the Union Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar who argued the case of the Modi dispensation with 10 tweets. Besides, there was an avalanche of derision from top functionaries of the BJP. The volume and intensity of the responses demonstrate indubitably that Gandhi's experiment isn't entirely wasteful.

THE intellectual appearance of a political leader is as good as the depth of the script writers. For past one decade, the script for him and his mother Sonia Gandhi has been written by a former Union Minister who is known for putting his foot in the mouth too often. That script writer had faced the wrath of even his mother for making insensitive comments about Hindu symbols when he was a powerful minister in the Manmohan Singh government. It can be conveniently inferred that the comments, including the poor needs escape velocity to escape poverty, must have been authored by such script writers who delight in pulling the verbal strings of their aka. So, derision thrown at Gandhi must also largely account for the disconnect of his script writers.

Flower of India's foremost political dynasty, Gandhi is principally an experimenter, introducing the borrowed concept of primaries in the Indian Youth Congress and afterwards in the candidate selection for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The 15th Lok Sabha and the 2009 winning list of the Congress candidates boasted a number of youngsters who rose from the ranks of the Youth Congress. Meenakshi Natarajan, winning Madhya Pradesh's poorest Parliamentary constituency Mandsaur, hogged the limelight, coming to Parliament on an auto-rickshaw. That was a full three years before a policy lobbyist rode piggyback to Anna Hazare to appear as an Aam Admi politician. Rahul Gandhi lacked manpower in salesmanship to allow Arvind Kejriwal to run away with the Aam Admi plot. A dynast would also otherwise have failed to win the plot.

Politics in India since the formation of the Congress in 1885 has been held hostage by the feudal lords. Post-Independence, they conveniently carved out their principalities under the benign patronage of the legacy of Jawahar Lal Nehru. The folly of Rahul Gandhi was that he paid more interests in the politics of the US than the architecture of his party and the Indian politics. His push with primaries to promote youngsters outside the established political families made him an outsider within the Congress. The entrenched had their interests better protected with Sonia Gandhi. She will not speak a word outside the slip given to her.

People will accept Rahul Gandhi if he wins the battle within the Congress. Changing the course of the status quoist blood running in the veins of the Congress is a herculean task. For a change, he should read the Roman mythology more to first take on the feudal lords within his party. Modi can wait for him to win his battle first within the Congress. 

Delhi Assembly elections: Data drift holds cues

Predicting poll outcomes by all accounts is a perilous job. Elections are analysed on past trends. Electorates have proven wiser than pundits more often. They aren't prisoners of the past, as they script history elections after elections. Amid the maddening electioneering, data stay firm with serenity, inviting political strategists to steer narratives to help their masters for smart politics. Data for Delhi suggest the air in the city smells of a cliffhanger of the poll outcome. 

THE ruling Aam Admi Party (AAP) had weaved a magical spell in 2015. Political rivals of the incumbent chief minister Arvind Kejriwal were left shell-shocked with the final scoreboard. That was 67-3 and a naught for the Congress. The BJP had the worst tally. The saffron outfit still bears the taunt. Climbing from an abyss like situation of the single digit figure five years ago to go past the half way mark of 35 would indeed be an unprecedented somersault. For AAP, it will equally be the groundswell of popular anger to slump from the level of 67 to 30s or less would be quite a fall with thud. 

The AAP isn't just another political outfit. The party was born after Anna Hazare made the political air of Delhi pregnant with negativism during 2012-13. Negativism midwifed anarchism. Kejriwal proved an undisputed icon of the politics of anarchism. His foes were left guilt-stricken, as they bent backwards to prove their credentials of honesty and probity in public life. They vowed to innovate and herald an honest and people friendly governance. The tribe of Sheila Dikshit, Harsh Vardhan and Kiran Bedi searched for wood when their boats had already sunk.   

The 2015 scoreboard read: AAP 54.3 per cent vote share and 67 Assembly seats; BJP 32.3 per cent vote share and 3 Assembly seats; and the Congress 9.7 per cent vote share and zero Assembly seats.

But that wasn't the maiden electoral venture of AAP in politics. Kejriwal cut off his umbilical chord with his godfather Anna Hazare to contest the December 2013 Assembly polls. The cadre of the AAP wasn't yet properly built. The party was still sloganeering. 

The 2013 scoreboard read: AAP 29.5 per cent vote share and 28 Assembly seats; BJP 33 per cent vote share and 31 Assembly seats; and the Congress 24.6 per cent vote share and eight Assembly seats.

In  span of a few months, Kejriwal built the cadre for AAP, with donations pouring from the affluent class within the country and abroad, helping him to maintain an army of well paid functionaries. With the likes of Kumar Vishwas, Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav leading the most vicious attacks on the mainstream political parties, Kejriwal strode as the alternative politics warrior, swearing to slay the rivals in the electoral battlefield. The Congress fell for the trap, and helped Kejriwal become chief minister. That bloated the persona of Kejriwal further, and soon he didn't need the Congress crutches. He read the politics well, and played the victim card to the hilt.

People flocked to Kejriwal, with 54.3 per cent vote share in 2015. His rivals turned into pygmies. The new political icon was born. But within a few months, drift set in the Kejriwal camp, as all those who bloated him into an extraordinary exponent of alternative politics parted ways after much breast-beating. 

TWO years later, the AAP faced the litmus test to repeat the magical spell of 2015. The BJP had been in power in the municipal corporation of Delhi for a decade, completing two full terms. The AAP cadre was mobilised to oust the BJP from the MCD, which, incidentally, has over 90 per cent connect with the people on a daily basis. The BJP was up against significant anti-incumbency. The BJP chief Amit Shah sought shelter in simple strategy; he just told the incumbent Councillors that they should climb the political ladder and focus on contesting the next Assembly elections. The BJP fielded fresh crop of the party workers.

The 2017 municipal elections' scoreboard read: AAP 26 per cent vote share and 49 seats; BJP 37 per cent vote share and 181 seats; and the Congress 21 per cent vote share and 31 seats.     

From 54.3 per cent vote share in 2015, AAP came down to 26 per cent; the BJP after staying firm with 33 per cent (2013) and 32.3 per cent (2015) rose to 37 per cent; and the Congress made a smart recovery from an embarrassing 9.7 per cent (2015) to 21 per cent. 

In 2017 again the AAP got another jolt. The outfit had found fertile ground in Punjab, and was seen on course to wrest power from Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine. The Delhi drift had its own parallel in Punjab for AAP. The Congress' old horse Captain Amarinder Singh strode high to leave AAP huffing and puffing at distant second.             

PEOPLE undeniably have made distinctions between local and national elections. Chhatishgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand have shown that the electorate can with ease make distinct choices in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. In Odisha, the electorate cast votes simultaneously for Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, and showed preferences for Narendra Modi in New Delhi and Navin Patnaik in Bhubaneshwar.  

Still, the data are significant, for Delhi appears on a certain course. The BJP swept the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, with the perfect scoreboard of 7-0. The 2019 endorsed the previous scorecard, with scales going higher.

The 2014 scoreboard read: AAP 32.90 per cent vote share and zero seat; BJP 46.40 per cent vote share and seven Lok Sabha seats; and the Congress 15.10 per cent vote share and zero seat. 

The BJP had seen a negative swing of about 14 per cent in the 2015 Assembly elections. The AAP correspondingly registered over 21 per cent of positive swing, mostly gaining at the expense of the Congress. 

 The 2019 scoreboard read: AAP 18 per cent vote share and zero seat; BJP 56.58 per cent vote share and seven Lok Sabha seats; and the Congress 18 per cent vote share and zero seat.

For BJP, the scores in recent elections are 33 per cent (2013), 46.40 per cent (2014), 32.3 per cent (2015), 37 per cent (2017), 56.58 per cent (2019). In the five recent polls, the BJP hasn't gone down 32.3 per cent even when the party arguably shot in the foot by fielding an ex-cop Kiran Bedi in 2015. 

The AAP in contrast has seen wild swing of vote share from 18 per cent (2019) to 54.3 per cent in 2015. The graph is surely not steady. The AAP, in fact, came third in 2019. 

The 2015 elections in Delhi was a watershed moment. The BJP saw 14 per cent vote share knocked away in the face of the magical spell of AAP. Delhi was high on romance in 2015. The level of romance was two per cent higher in 2019, with adoration for a different entity. 

The BJP's worst case scenario could be another 14 per cent drift, which may leave the saffron outfit still with 42 per cent popular votes. To level, the AAP will need 24 per cent of the positive swing from 2019. And, that would surely be reckoned a daunting task.    

Delhi may throw a tantalizingly cliffhanger election outcome on February 11.

Citizenship Amendment Act: Flying embers in times of urban unrest

Students are swelling in numbers on the streets. They've braved chill in the air. Showers from water canons haven't doused the fire in the bellies of the protestors. Universities, mostly in metropolitan cities, are squirming with angst. Air smells of feverish emotions. The new decade dawned with loud shrieks from the youth, underlining their hatred for the ruling dispensation in India. That Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are no strangers to hatred is not forgotten by those with eyes and ears for the fast changing Indian democratic flavours.

INDIAN Parliament has been seized of the pressing needs for the amendments in the Citizenship Act for a few decades. The voice for amendments in the Parliament began gaining visible strength from 2003. Politicians cutting across party lies made sympathetic overtures for granting citizenship to thousands of refugees. Such refugees who fled neighbouring Islamic countries due to religious persecutions have been spread out in many cities for past three decades, while they continue to seek ways to come to India on the back of radical Islamist choosing them for their bigotry even in the recent times. The influx will not stop of such people even while the Citizenship Amendment Act draws the curtain of December 31, 2014 for them to gain Indian nationality. 

Deliberations in the Parliamentary standing committee of the Ministry of Home Affairs largely concurred that the refugees belonging to the majority community in Bangladesh cannot be considered for citizenship. Muslim refugees from Pakistan and Afghanistan aren't in any significant number to warrant attention. Muslims from Bangladesh, popularly called ghuspaithiya (illegal migrants), have, however, been in numbers to polarise election campaigns, with a few political parties vowing to throw them out of the country. Assam has seen riots in areas inhabited by them since 1980s. Assam was torn apart in the face of the swift demographic changes, posing an existential crisis to the Assamese identity.

Demographic changes, substantially altering linguistic and cultural identities of districts bordering West Bengal and Bihar with Bangladesh in the course of 1990s and the first decade of the new millennium, were swift. Waves of illegal migrants from Bangladesh mingled in Indian habitations unhindered and unquestioned. The military dictatorship in Bangladesh after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman had co-opted the radical Islamist. The free flow of Saudi money to further the Wahabi stream of militant Islam found fertile grounds in Bangladesh. That the Parliamentary voices underlined security risk from such unabated flow of illegal Bangladeshi migrants indeed reflected the ground realities.

THE National Register for Citizens (NRC), committed in the Assam Accord and implemented under the watch of the Supreme Court, bared the religious fault lines. The cut off date for the people to make into the list was March 25, 1971. Over 19 lakhs were excluded from the final list for which over 3.31 crore people had applied. The BJP was livid, for the party leaders claimed that 12 lakh Bengali Hindus found their claim rejected. The BJP leaders fumed that over 90 per cent of the alleged Bangladeshi illegal migrants actually made into the final list. Predictably, the BJP government in Assam rejected the NRC held in Assam.

Indian Parliament exhaustively debated the draft legislation on the Citizenship Amendment Bill. The BJP also faced internal dissent in its Assam unit, with some expressing that there would be backlash if the Bengali Hindus are granted citizenship. The Central BJP leaders held firm and went ahead with clear intent that the Hindus in Assam would gain citizenship. The Bill excluded the Muslims from the ambit, while other minorities in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan -- Christians, Buddhists, Parsi, Jains and Sikhs -- made into the beneficiary list. Such refugees from Pakistan and Afghanistan are said to be just little over 30,000. The BJP leaders have guessed Bangladesh illegal Muslim migrants in excess of one crore (100 million).

"The Citizenship Amendment Act is meant principally for the Bengali Hindus in Assam," said a senior BJP leader in an informal chat with scribes.

THE BJP chief Amit Shah has rewritten the political script of Indian politics. In Narendra Modi, Shah had a campaigner to allow the BJP to overwhelm inimical political hindrances. Shah rejoices in politics of confrontation. In Parliament, his debates are essentially confined to winning the arguments, with facts and instances from the past, which are uncomfortable to the Opposition. In electoral politics, he demonstrated effortlessly that the age old might of the strategic Muslim voting was just rudderless. He scored the rare triple century for the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, leaving opponents gripped with morbid fear of irrelevance.       

Shah was among the first few to occupy the chair in the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhavan when Modi took oath for his second term. The men and women in the council of ministers largely consisted of the aids of Shah. It was apparent that Modi had chosen his second in command and possibly the heir. Shah proved soon that he was in a hurry. In a swift and sudden move, Shah wrote a new script for Jammu and Kashmir. He made it simple to disbelief of even his supporters that the Article 370 could just be wished away with a Parliamentary resolution. Shah endeared to the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh (RSS) with one bold stroke. To the delight of the RSS, he owned up the moral ownership of the Citizenship Amendment Bill, and grabbed a narrative for the next five years by becoming vocal on the NRC.    

In a matter of six months, it's not Modi but Shah who is being talked about in the country. With his alter ego Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in India, accounting for one-sixth population of the country, the BJP-RSS brass know that the Hindutva would stay at the center stage of the popular discourse in the coming years.

Lok Sabha had passed the Citizenship Amendment Bill in 2018. The CPI (M) MP Mohammed Salim and AIMIM MP Asaduddin Owaisi made the obvious noise. There were hardly any noteworthy protests on the streets of New Delhi. The Bill lapsed with the dissolution of the 16th Lok Sabha. The 17th Lok Sabha inaugurated with the BJP led government going in a tearing hurry to gain Parliamentary approvals to host of legislative bills, with government not shying away from pushing the contentious legislation. The NDA being in minority in Rajya Sabha proved no hindrance to Shah. From legislation against the practice of triple talaq (instant divorce) within the Muslim community to the dilution of Article 370, besides the Citizenship Amendment Act, flew with the Parliamentary favours with ease. The BJP under the watch of Shah in the government was seen possessed with the might to rewrite the Constitution o India by the opponents.    

The battle lost in Parliament and elections for long have been waged on the streets.

Lok Sabha elections 2019: One who beats boredom may win.

India is, arguably, a most lucrative market for tools addressing boredom. A large chunk of population essentially looks bored. Technological advancement added with increased mobility appears to have made the populace more prone to boredom. Irony of the day is the pervasive boredom amongst children; they seem bored even of their parents, teachers and friends. The political space in no way can remain immune to such an all embracing boredom.

SPARKS continue to fly in the last leg of five and a half weeks long elections for the 17th Lok Sabha. Longevity of electioneering has sapped principal generals of political outfits eying seat of power in New Delhi. Boredom has struck poll watchers too. Cues of trends from any source command premiums. With few fence sitters, polarized populace has only scales to climb. That May 23 isn't far away is a relief. Yet, an imminent verdict on perceptions -- held and formed -- could well be pounding millions of hearts.

History at times appears repeating. The 2014 Lok Sabha elections were held five years ago. But it has more immediacy than five years of the BJP led NDA governance. A little attempt to refresh memory of last general elections could well just demonstrate the stark similarities. 

A bus driver flips through phone to catch news.

Principal theme of 2014 polls was Narendra Modi bashing. Principal theme of 2019 elections remains Narendra Modi bashing. Intensity of Modi bashing was electrifying in 2014. In 2019, it's no less intense. The theme, indeed, shaped political vision and philosophy of BJP baiters of a multitude of political outfits. The Congress, principal foe of the BJP, wore the blanket of Modi hatred before the people. The cloak remains unchanged. 

The BJP yearned to fight elections around Modi. The Opposition obliged. So, the central narrative of 2019 Lok Sabha elections is the choice before the people -- Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi or someone from amongst regional satraps. Size of an opponent does make one grander. Modi, thus, delights in rivalry with the Congress. 

RAHUL Gandhi has given a full account of his world views in past one and a half decades. From a reluctant politician, Gandhi has graduated to a combative politician, clutching onto an issue and sticking with it to fan out noise. He appears more confident than earlier. That he's interacting with media more often is a sign worth noting. 

That politics is an art, however, hasn't struck Gandhi in last 15 years. He's largely a boring politician. That he would appeal to an audience, which is already in a firm grip of boredom, is a hope, which leans heavily on the wall of improbable. His father, Rajiv Gandhi, was an equally boring person thrust onto the political upheaval board by chance. He could win popular endorsement once was for an overwhelming sympathy vote for her mother who had fallen to bullets of terrorists. 

Modi in a stark contrast is an entertainer. He's an artist. He entertains. He can force subjects of entertainments by the drop of hat. His entertainment bouquet is deep and rich. And, he has perfected the art of political entertainments in a state where it's daunting to engage people in public meetings. People in Gujarat largely don't have contempt for time. 

Entertainment demands full scripts. Story in parts don't appeal to the mass. Issues in elections are indeed multi-layered scripts. Largely, they're academic, and they gain popular acceptance when people have immediacy with them. Also, people in India are largely fearful -- of fate. They would shudder at smallest signs of fear. That political outfits continue to rile them by stoking bogey of "reservation in danger" is a case worth noting. Rumour mongering by the WhatsApp factory too scares people easily.

But people do connect with issues when presented in their entireties. Agrarian distress, specter of unemployment and social discords are indeed issues of grave nature. A layman too can decipher major issues affecting the masses. A few who hammer out solutions are hailed as leaders. Gandhi hasn't yet crossed that bridge. 

All that Gandhi could think of was another dole -- Rs 72,000 annual to about five crore poorest of the poor. His prescription to issues of serious discourses betrayed bankruptcy of ideas. This robs him off desired credibility to occupy the high office.

Rahul Gandhi doesn't yet have scripts to win elections. He can't entertain either. His sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, however, has shown hints that she could be an entertainer, while requiring a rigorous training in coming years. But she has the potential to take the stage. 

India is also much changed from times of 1990s. Demographic

Mohan Balmiki in Rampur said, he'll vote for Modi

changes coupled with mitigated electoral thuggery have largely turned regional caste and identity satraps into political pygmies in national elections. People since 1998 have gradually been converging for a coherent mandate to back stable government at the Centre. For about 21 years, people of India have pushed likes of HD Deve Gowdas to the margins of national politics. 

Entertaining tribe amongst regional satraps is also fast becoming extinct. They have been robbed off entertainers like -- M Karunanidhi, J Jayalalitha, Lalu Prasad, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Bal Thackerey and Devi Lal. Their successors are plastic imitations. Mamata Banerjee is an exception.    

There's only one entertainer. He's Narendra Modi. On May 23, people would deliver verdict whether he could go on with his show for another five years. The showman has script and measure of doses to release on times to help people battle their boredom.  

Lok Sabha elections: Wilting caste factor

BETWEEN cheerleaders and naysayers of Indian airstrike against Pakistani terror bases following Pulwama attack lies firming up of electoral narrative, that nationalism is pushing casteism to the margins. With two surgical strikes in BJP's arsenals, the Opposition undeniably has an uphill task to steer public discourse back to issues affecting the masses. Lok Sabha elections, beginning 40 days from now, is pregnant with possibilities to change the future course of Indian politics.

CASTE swept through the political narrative in 1990s. Social justice juggernaut, with firm grip by 1980s, succumbed to mutation within a decade. Personal aspirations of regional political satraps took higher flights on deepening of caste faultlines. The Congress, indeed, commanded caste rainbows in its belt for long, but with a pan-India appeal. The Congress yielded space in state after state to caste leaders soon after the VP Singh led Janata Dal imploded with the might of inner contradictions. Narendra Modi led BJP delivered first mortal blows to caste satraps in 2014 by riding on aspirational plank. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections promises to show if the caste satraps could clutch on to prevailing arithmetic to live another day in Indian politics.

Demography is fast changing. A vast chunk of Indian youth have few recollections of contemporary political history. Growing expanse of education and access to climb social and economic ladders deny alibi to lament lack of opportunity. Nearly 25 crore of Indian electorate are said to be in age group of 18-25. This chunk rubs shoulders in educational and professional institutions with peers of a cross-section of castes. That may be blunting caste consciousness as well. Besides, shrinking of employment opportunities along with a largescale expansion of access to educational institutions are taking the shine out of charm of reservation bogey. The principal anchor of caste satraps could possibly be adrift on high sea. Additionally, family proprietorship of caste based political outfits also ensured that they remained stuck in the narrative of 1990s. 

THREE decades are too long a period to milk the same plank. Satraps aged and passed batons to their offspring. Original proponents toiled hard amidst the masses. Their offspring grew up in comforts. Satraps were grounded. Offspring show up at stages. Satraps lorded over a large base of peers. Offspring have few.

Messrs Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Om Prakash Choutala, Kansi Ram, Ram Vilas Paswan, and others have faded. They indeed passed batons to their respective heirs. Likes of Akhilesh Yadav, Tejaswi Yadav, Ajay Choutala, Mayawati have reaped gains of last gust of legacies of satraps. They stuck to old plank, and refused to evolve with times. Consequently, they were struck with full might of fast changing demographic profile. Paswan, indeed, survived, but only for reason that he he read the changing weather well to clutch onto season's flavor.       

A few other remnants of 1990s, which include the likes of H D Kumaraswamy, stay alive with the power of arithmetic in Indian politics.

Yet, a few of social justice campaigners who branched out of caste satraps remain potent till days by perfecting social welfarism. Navin Patnaik and Nitish Kumar aren't caste satraps, but couched in all pervasive welfarism suited to their turfs abundant with poverty.  

Electoral rise of the BJP and Congress would undeniably shrink spaces for casteist political outfits. Not that the BJP and Congress aren't embedded in caste arithmetic, but they stitch broader equations with national narratives. People haven't also shunned casteism in their preferences. Socially caste is arguably more explicit. But political import of caste identities in electoral politics is evidently wilting with emergence of strong leadership at the national level.

That a few of the chief ministers -- Kamal Nath, Devendra Fadanvis, Manohar Lal Khattar, Raghubar Das, Arvind Kejriwal, Vijay Rupani -- come from electorally insignificant caste groups demonstrate that the fast changing demography and their aspirations are guiding Indian politics to an altogether new territory.    

Emergence of nationalism on the back of popular fatigue and angst against terror strikes in the country could possibly deliver the knock out punch to already weakened caste politics. The youth, particularly, has explicit aversion to status quoism. What passed on as fatalistic sense of resignation is not popularly accepted. That India struck against sources of terrorism is an undercurrent sweeping through the youth yearning for a collective catharsis from mortal blows of status quoism. 

RISK takers, indeed, are rewarded. A Modi led BJP has a rare opportunity to push electoral caste into oblivion. Rahul Gandhi led Congress could also draw a sense of relief, that the lost turf to caste satrap is up for grabs sooner. 

Narendra Modi: Saving 'Sultanate' in uncertain times

In another 70 days, Narendra Modi will seek a fresh mandate. Unlike 2013-14, he wouldn't be swimming with anti-Congress tide. That he has kept the people immensely busy with his talks in recent past may make electorate unwilling to look at Congress years before casting votes. And, so, the BJP appears in full grip of doubts at crucial times. 

THE Narendra Modi government would be signing off the final financial year 2018-19 with a total allocation of Rs 61,084 crores for rural employment flagship programme Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). The inaugural financial year of the Modi government had seen an allocation of Rs 32,977 crores. 

Modi's inaugural speech in Lok Sabha in 2014 had seemingly set the agenda of the government that it wouldn't be like the Congress led UPA which even after 70 years of India's Independence had nothing but to make people dig soil for livelihoods in a veiled mocking of MGNREGS. 

Financial allocation for MGNREGS in the last financial year of the UPA government was Rs 33,000 crores. Indeed, wage payouts under MGNREGS were marred with long delays, which are no more the norms in the Modi government on account of the expansion of Jan Dhan coverage (Banking coverage and direct benefit transfer). 

Modi had laid siege to "Delhi Sultanate" from Ahmedabad with contrasting governance template. Not digging soil, but the people would be working in big factories, that India would become if not China than at least Gujarat. 

But last quarter allocation of about Rs 6,000 crores to MGNREGS in the revised Budget for 2018-19 taking the full allocation to the flagship scheme to the whopping Rs 61,084 crores demonstrated that labour is moving to rural areas in search for unskilled works on account of shrinking base of skilled work demands in urban areas. 

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may soon have to cut the policy rates. That inflation continues to ebb isn't something to cheer about. Possible collapse of buying appetite of consumers should worry the policy shenanigans. The December inflation at 2.19 per cent is an 18 months' low. 

The record high MGNREGS allocation and ebbing inflation together tell the story of Indian economy -- panting for breath. Reverse migration of labour is evident. Declining rural income is indeed the story of India in recent years, which in turn gives no incentive for the private investment to chase business expansion.

Indian economy's journey on jobless growth path surely isn't a phenomenon of the times of Modi. That India embarked on jobless growth is a 2008 story. Yet, the journey only gained more steam in Modi's times is well illustrated with official statistics on specter of unemployment in the country, which remains at 27 months' high, besides logging 11 million jobless in 2018.

IN the bylanes of suburbs around Agra, Jatav youth had bolted the electoral stereotype in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Much to the anger of their elders, they would openly argue that Behenji (Mayawati, the BSP supremo) wouldn't be becoming Prime Minister, but Modi could create jobs for them. The youth cutting across caste lines believed Modi's words. 

BJP president Amit Shah during a roadshow.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there would be roughly 250 million youth votes in the age group of 18-25. This segment's immediate worry is employment. They may even be worried of the scale of reverse migration of labour to the rural areas. The urban centres aren't vibrant enough to pull the rural youth with gainful employments. In 2014, such youth had defied the caste pulls. Do they have enough reasons to do same in 2019?  

MODI'S exuberance for his Gujarat model of development had dulled mid-way during the NDA tenure. In the latter half of 2016, Modi was seemingly convinced that his programmes like 'Make in India', "Skill India', etc., were slogans for seminars and Babus to keep them busy in the four walls of New Delhi babudom. He, consequently, had borrowed from Indira Gandhi's electoral book to focus his governance on welfarism. The BJP on purpose, thus, had unveiled the 'Garib kalyan agenda' in 2016. 

After wards, Modi government and the BJP worked in tandem to enlist beneficiaries for a host of welfare schemes. The BJP now has a basket of 22 crore beneficiaries of various welfare schemes to count on for votes in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. That the 2014 mandate wasn't for doles and welfarism is well forgotten within the saffron outfit.   

Indian jobless growth journey by all accounts is for the reason that the private investment remains elusive in the country. The UPA-II failed to revive the private investment. By the time Modi assumed power, Indian private sector was largely in the bad books of the banks. The public sector banks (PSUs), principal carrier of the private investment fuel, are faced with existential crisis. Modi inherited the economic template with missing private investment.

Not an economist and not even blessed with ears for those with expertise, Modi took a flight for flamboyance. Demonetisation of high value currencies along with unleashing of 'tax terrorism' of greater proportions never seen in the history of Indian economy put the engine of India's economy in deep coma. The windfall gains out of low crude oil helped Modi to enhance public investment in infrastructure. But infrastructure development by nature is of long gestation, yielding benefits in the long run. 

Modi may possibly not inspire the youth who seek income opportunities. Those who have gained from welfare schemes aren't sworn either to loyalty of benefactors, for they know that others too would offer doles, which may even be better. Modi has an uphill task in a few weeks to retain his 'Sultanate'. 

Atal Bihari Vajpayee: A realist who said "wo wapas aa rahe haen"

With almost six decades of public life, former Prime Minister and the first from the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh (RSS) to enter Parliament Atal Bihari Vajpayee arguably had been an open book for many to peep in and tell tales for the posterity.

A day before the 2004 Lok Sabha election verdict, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had been surrounded by his party colleagues at the 7, Race Course Road residence of the Prime Minister. The leaders brought out their on-ground assessments of the just concluded voting. The BJP leaders concurred, and so told Vajpayee, exuding confidence of a victorious battalion returning to the base after a successful assault on the enemy front, that a resounding win is just a matter of a few hours.

Listening them all with innocence of a child, Vajpayee was untouched with flow of pride all around. At last, he said, "Wo (Congress) wapas aa rahe haen (The Congress is coming back to power)."

The beaming faces took refuge in somber expressions. His dismissal with trademark sleight of hand had none to contest. Then came the command -- Bhojan kijiye (take meals).

But Vajpayee wasn't a God. He was another mortal. And, so, he too rued till he lost his senses of having erred. "Pramod galat tha (Pramod Mahajan was wrong for persuading in advancing the Lok Sabha elections)," Vajpayee would so afterwards to his audiences.  

Vajpayee was just another mortal for the fact that he too fell for the "India Shining" campaign, which any incumbent government would like to believe in having given ears to Babus all five years. He was also just another mortal for the reason that he too rued wrong decisions. All make wrong decisions. And, all rue for rest of life as well. Time is spent, thus, in thinking and sharing about "ifs".      

VAJPAYEE was no Gandhian. He was not even a communalist. He was neither a socialist. He was essentially a realist. And, indeed, Vajpayee was a humanist.

Vajpayee was arguably the most pampered protégé  of the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh (RSS). He had been hand-picked for political works. With pride, he was hosted in thousands of homes of the RSS functionaries for meals. That he could reason with the leading lights of the Congress, and debated with uncommon élan had an electrifying impact among millions of saffron foot soldiers. They had more reasons to believe in ideologies which had not been accepted in the mainstream of the country.       

But Vajpayee was unshackled. Ideology didn't bind him. He was rather evolved. That he never succumbed to rhetoric exemplified his realism.

The Kandahar episode defines Vajpayee. The brief history is thus: An Indian Airlines flight IC 814 (Airbus A300) carrying 176 passengers was hijacked on December 24, 1999 while being en route from Kathmandu to New Delhi by Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. Eventually, it landed in Kandahar. Terrorists sought release of hardened and jailed terrorists in exchange to release the terrorists.

The Winter biting cold was sweating out the strategists. The family members of the passengers had laid siege of the Lutyens' Delhi. Vajpayee's comrade and the then Union Minister Jaswant Singh's landline phone at his residence buzzed all day and night -- some abusing, some pleading.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Sherpa and National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, who had then been the RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) chief, was aghast at diplomatic failure to allow the ill-fated plane a free fly over the skies of a number of countries.

Years of training of Vajpayee's alma mater -- the RSS -- would have wanted that no hardened terrorists be released, that the government should have taken a leaf out of Israel and ordered commando operation.

Yet, Vajpayee seemingly wilted. He sent emissaries to hold talks with terrorists. And, in the end, he accepted all demands of the Pakistan backed terrorists. He didn't want to be an iron man of India. He just wanted his men and women safe and back in the country. For him, no price was big enough to secure the human lives. And, thus, Vajpayee, baring his soft core, revealed his undying trust in the virtue of humanism, and realism.

IT'S often said that to err is human, and repeating same mistake again and again is a hallmark of the highest order of stupidity. But Vajpayee didn't free himself from succumbing to string of judgmental errors, so as to say, to keep trying for a breakthrough in India's relations with Pakistan. 

In contrast, Dr Manmohan Singh displayed a consistent policy of maintaining a long distance with Pakistan, and never fell for any of the trappings, which occasionally blow in with western winds. Dr Singh was unaffected by a posse of intelligentsia in New Delhi, who hop from one event to another to showcase their pipedream for peace with Pakistan.

But Vajpayee fell for such trappings. He hopped on to a bus for trip to Lahore with Shatrughan Sinha as a companion. He hosted General Pervez Musharraff. He allowed safe passage to Pakistani Army regulars trapped on Kargil hills despite hundreds of Indian Jawans laying down their lives to wrest the honour back.

That Vajpayee defied all warnings to connect with Pakistan was ostensibly for the reason that he was a humanist at the core. He, indeed, believed that neighbours must be friends.    

VAJAPAYEE could defy protestations from within the saffron camp against privatisation of public sector units -- not just loss making, but even those who made profits. That he could lord over the one and only instance of the government showing spine to put in practice the maxim that "government has no business to be in business" was also for the reason that he had been a realist.

Paying homage to Veer Savarkar once, Vajpayee had given a loud statement of his being a realist. "Kavita aur bhranti to sath sath chal sakti hai, par kavita aur kranti ka sath chalna bahut mushkil hai (Poetry and confusion can go along, but not poetry and revolution)," Vajpayee had said, while describing the multi-faceted personality of Savarkar. He said so at a stage where he had been introduced as a poet.

The revolution that Vajpayee talked about was change in the society which could lead to transformation of the country.

AND, such changes, are most often brought about by a leadership sworn in to realism who painstakingly takes steps with aims to lay bridges for transformation. And, Vajpayee, indeed, took giant steps for India's qualitative transformation.    

Gujarat elections: Hopes in saffron angst land

In 2014, India voted for Gujarat model of development. Three years later, BJP mascot Narendra Modi invented Pakistan's prowess to influence outcome of Gujarat elections. That the Gujarat dream, which swayed India in 2014, seemed dimming in the land of origin was evident in length and breadth of the state. Indeed, the verdict is more than the sum total of issues, and is more subservient to organisational might and pull and pressure of foot soldiers may well be on display again.  

CHINTU Patel is an angry man. Two years ago, he was chased by the police. His wife ran for safety. His daughter was awe struck. He bore the blows of sticks. Scars on his body have still remained. Patel has vowed to vote against the BJP.

Agravat Raj is a diploma holder in computer engineering. In Ahmedabad, he couldn't find a job of more than Rs 6000 pacy check a month. So, he became a driver. Hailing from Rajkot, he had to shift base since his wife is pursuing Masters in computer engineering. It was a love marriage, he firmly states. He knows for sure that the BJP would win, and he too would vote for Modi.     

Villagers benefited with Narmada waters near Bhuj

The British premier Harold Wilson is credited to have said that a week is a long time in politics. Fifteen years certainly should be quite a long time. The 2002 post-Godhra riots gave Gujarat the defining identity of a saffron laboratory. The state politics has been seen through the Hindu-Muslim prism. The communal polarisation has stayed a constant in the state politics for one and a half decades. Ghosts of Godhra weren't given decisive burials. Past suited the politics. The BJP harvested rich electoral  crop.

But Modi moved to New Delhi from Ahmedabad in 2014 to take up a larger responsibilities. Demography too changed. About 52 per cent of the total electorate in Gujarat is stated to be youth. That the youth lives less in the past being more embedded in future is arguably a least contested fact. So, Modi uttered Pakistan word on penultimate day of electioneering. That Kapil Sibal sought Supreme Court adjudication of the Ayodhya Ramjanmbhoomi case's postponement till after 2019 Lok Sabha elections seemingly failed to flare up Gujarati tempers. That a lesser known Congress man demanded an apology from Modi at Babri mosque for Gujarat riots also came as whimper. Demography indeed was dictating the electioneering. And, hence, Modi had to assertively claim that his development credentials had beneficiaries in the poor of the state and not the Ambanis and Tatas.

Chintu Patel was a curious onlooker at a jamboree of Patidars in 2015 in support of reservations for the land owning Patel caste. He empathized with Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Hardik Patel. His daughter had secured 85 per cent marks. yet, she didn't get admission in an MBBS course in a medical college. "Her friend had 75 per cent marks, but she got into an MBBS course," Patel rued, saying he favoured scrapping of reservation policy in the country. If Modi is so decisive, why doesn't he scrap this quota, he asked. He's a Kadawa Patel.

"My forefathers were workers in mills in Ahmedabad. They all were shut long back. They resided inside Ahmedabad. Afterwards, they had to move out of Ahmedabad and live on the margins of the city. Lakhs of Kadawa Patels now are out of the city. Many of them are still fighting to claim their providend funds and gratuity," Patel stated.

Unlike Leva Patels, who have emigrated in a great number to the US and other countries, Kadavas are apparently finding in Hardik's campaign for reservation. Patel says, he would vote against the BJP to teach a lesson to Modi and Amit Shah.

AGRAVAT Raj is in his 20s. I had to come to Ahmedabad because my wife is pursuing masters in computer science, he said, while adding in same breath that it was a love marriage for him. "I was working in Rajkot at a salary of Rs 12000. On Facebook, my wife sent a friend's request. In a span of a few months, we were in love. Her father didn't agree. But mother of his muse was alarmed that any violence against him could harm her son and daughter pursuing MBBS courses," Raj Said. He added that her mother-in-law advised him to elope with her daughter. Thus, they got married.

In Ahmedabad, Raj found that there was no job of more than Rs 6,000 a month salary. "It was

Tobacco cultivation in Anand district

worthless to do such a job," he said. Raj, thus, become an Ola cab driver.  After working for more than 14 hours a day, he has Rs 1100 net earnings. "No job can give me Rs 35000 a month. So, I'm now an Ola driver," Raj added.

The young driver said that he would vote for Modi. "You see this Sabarmati riverfront. It was a nullah full of garbage. There used to be long hours of traffic jams. No, we can zip through within minutes. We can earn more. Modi made this happen. I've to work hard to buy more cars which I can give to other drivers. There is no alternative than to work hard," Raj quipped. He hails from an OBC, and is an avowed Modi admirer. 

In between Chintu Patel and Agravat Raj, Gujarat has seemingly moved beyond the simmering embers of Godhra. 

Yet, the electoral verdict is incumbent upon a well oiled organisational machinery. The BJP may well just be far ahead of its rivals. 

Rising spate of unemployment in India: Is Modi riding a tiger

BJP top guns are sweating hard to talk gains of demonetization. Hard-selling his book "I do what I do", Raghuram Rajan has  emerged within a few days a nemesis of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Desperation on the back of mainstream media not believing numbers thrown by government to talk achievements is sinking in fast. In three years, Modi seems high on the steroid administered by achievements on borders with China and Pakistan, but quite fragile on domestic front, with unemployment at its peak.

Anand Mahindra is arguably a straight-talking India Inc man. He is also one of a few Indian industrialists who has been expanding his businesses. But he too is not an industrialist who invests in employment intensive sector. He prefers businesses with light manpower. And, so does most of the Indian industrialists, with vision of just immediate future. Expansion of the industry and the consequent job growth happens when industrialists think long into the future with certainty of growth. 

India undeniably is caught in a time when vision is short -- ultra short.       

"In the special economic zones (SEZs) of Gujarat, most liberal labour laws are in practice backed by

world class infrastructure. yet, I've not seen industrialists taking advantage of facilities to invest in employment intensive industries," first vice-chairman of NITI Aayog Arvind Panagariya told Mahindra in a discussion with an intention to genuinely know why Indian industrialists have aversions about businesses which could trigger employment generation.

Before Mahindra could shed light of his wisdom, a senior officer, betraying a sense of resignation, stated that the ministry of labour had engaged the industry captains and sought to know from them what all changes they wanted so that they could take up businesses with employment generation. She rued that no concrete suggestion came. "We talk of labour regulations impeding on industrial growth. Yet, when asked what all regulations should go, there are no answers from the industry," the officer told Mahindra.

At last Mahindra replied, with an admission that Indian industrialists are only attempting to imitate the outsiders setting up shops in the country. "We are best following others. The foreigners are coming and setting up units in the country. We may be watching them out and follow them in the coming years," Mahindra quipped.

The Economic Survey of 2015-16 pegged unemployment at five per cent, a notch higher than previous year. Subsequently, situations have only worsened. The informal sector accounts for bulk of employment in the country. The construction sector has been the bellwether of employment. They lay battered following demonetization. The result was reflected well in the numbers, as the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) of 2017-18 slumped to 5.7 per cent. Rating agencies rushed to scale down growth projection to 7 per cent. Growing at 8 or more per cent GDP growth rate is a distant dream for at least a couple of years by all accounts.

So, what happens to employments in a country where 68 per cent of population is in working age group. Number of the working population is on an ascent only. Millions of youth are passing out from schools, colleges and institutes with prospects of job market further squeezing. That they would become employer is looking a crude joke after all the talks of Start Up India, Stand Up India turning out to be all about App and portal makers bottled in Bangalore and Hyderabad.

"We've given 80,000 jobs in various government departments in the last one year. But they youth don't remove their names from the employment exchange till they get the jobs of their choices. That explains why there is not much of change in the job data," the Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani reasoned at unemployment rising to quite high level.

The organizational secretary of Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM) Kashmiri Lal claims that the Chinese goods coming in the country account for 50 per cent of the Indian manufacturing outputs. "Chinese firms are making a clean profit of Rs 65,000 crore ($9 billion) annually, besides having a Rs 7 lakh crore trade value. If only we can replace them with our domestic manufacturing capacities, the impact on employment could be evident," Lal opined. 

But Lal will not admit that the Indian industrialists long back turned into traders of Chinese goods.

So, what happens to the promise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a rally in Agra in 2013 that if the BJP was to be voted to power 10 million jobs would be created. The BJP chief answers that

historical riddle with number-crunching from Mudra scheme. A month back, he had quipped that 7.28 crore Mudra beneficiaries have gained from the loans, which now has surpassed 8.25 crores. They're employers also, the BJP leaders would make others believe. But the Mudra beneficiaries are mostly in the semi-urban and rural areas, yet the economy hasn't got any evident shot of adrenaline for demands.

Yes, the stock market is at a record high. With banking instruments offering only an inflation neutral returns and the property option flattened, surplus money is pouring in strong stream to the Dalal Street.

With employments on freeze, Modi may well be riding a tiger.

  

After statue, Maya's deity fancy

A week is a long time in politics. Harold Wilson's one line wisdom has stood test of time for decades. That the political commentators are swayed by events to make predictions are commentaries on fallacy of being forgetful of what Wilson had so succinctly surmised.  

Only a few weeks back the Mayawati led BSP was rattled. The prominent face of the party in Uttar Pradesh Swamy Prasad Mourya had quit. He was followed by two more in quick succession. They all went out by alleging Mayawati's penchant for "money for tickets". Mayawati was seen defensive and waiting to see how many more would bolt her stable. She was apparently faced with a script of sabotage from within her party even before she launched the campaign to wrest the power back in the next year's elections in the state.

Mayawati

The BJP dropped a rope to Mayawati to swing back from the zone of self-doubt to that where she could street-fight her battle for Lucknow. The vice president of the state unit of the BJP Dayashankar Singh had a momentary loss of sanity to believe a public place as his private abode to abuse Mayawati. He succumbed to profanity. The Rajya Sabha was rocked. Leader of the House Arun Jaitely apologised. The BJP sacked Dayashankar Singh. He went into hiding, as the Akhilesh Yadav government went after him with full might.

The cadre of the BSP came on the street. The party battered in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections found the veins swelling with energy. The blue flag embossed with image of an elephant spurted on Lucknow streets. The verdict in New Delhi was out, that the BJP had handed the seat of power in Lucknow to Mayawati on a platter. The verdict was not misplaced either, for the BJP chief Amit Shah had been feasting and bathing with Dalits to win them over in the run up to the UP elections. The BJP story seemed over in UP. 

Dalits were bashed up in faraway Gujrat as well. They were flogged allegedly for skinning dead cows. The cow vigilantes have mushroomed north of Vidhyanchal strongly. The Narendra Modi government's ministry of agriculture and farmer welfare has rolled out ambitious plans for protection of cows. But the cow-worshipers choose not to remember that a few Dalits eke out their livings out of the skins of dead bovines. And, thus, the plan of feasting and bathing with Dalits by Amit Shah met with its anti-thesis in Una in Gujrat. The story which began with the suicide of Rohith Vemula on the Hyderabad University campus spread far and wide, that the BJP's love for Dalits was farcical. And, the BJP should forget taking a bite of the 20 per cent Dalit vote base pie in the electoral demography of Uttar Pradesh.

But politics is not stagnant waters. It's rather a flowing river. It absorbs the upheavals and goes on. And,

Dayashankar Singh

thus, the feast of abuse hosted by Dayashankar Singh was not the last one. Mayawati chose to become a deity from a wily politician. She sensed she could be the J Jayalaitha of Uttar Pradesh. And, she unleashed the hooligans upon the wife and minor daughter of Dayashankar Singh. Her crowd wanted his minor daughter. The woman and the girl were hurled choicest abuses. The battered women took shelter with the law of the land against the lynch mob set on them by Mayawati. They lodged an FIR against the BSP supremo. The score is now level. Akhilesh Yadav can now have the last laugh.

Mayawati's rise to political prominence in Uttar Pradesh had never been on account of militant Dalit politics. She had in contrast been the beneficiary of the Brahamanical uprising against the Mandal politics of the state. The BJP liberated her from the shadow of the BSP founder Kanshi Ram. The wily lawyer-turned-politician Satish Chandra Mishra made her the "Iron lady" of Uttar Pradesh. She practiced the mantra of "Bahujan Hitay, Bahujan Sukhay". Mishra helped her in scripting unprecedented social engineering in the run up to the 2007 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. She won support of upper castes, most backward castes, extremely backward castes, and, thus, became the queen of the UP politics. She built her political castle whose base was the 20 per cent Dalit vote constituency but the structure was provided by non-Yadav castes. 

Mayawati now appears to have overturned her mantra. Now, she threatens caste polarization. By fueling militant Dalit politics, her castle stands the risk to crumble with other castes likely to polarize against her. Uttar Pradesh is not a Tamil Nadu. The cow-belt is hardly congenial to militant Dalit politics. The past has shown that Dalits alone can not send Mayawati to the seat of power in Lucknow. She appears far from scripting the repeat of the magic of 2007. Much waters have flown in the Ganges in the last one decade.

This blogger had pointedly asked the then president of a national party how much money he had spent in the 2012 UP Assembly elections. He had paused, and then said "Rs 200 crores". He had apparently told the half truth. The amount was much higher. A cash starved political party stands no chance to win the UP elections. This is known to most of the political players. After leaving office in 2012, Mayawati has been out of power for more than four years now. She badly lost the 2014 Lok Sabha elections not only because the Modi magic was blowing like a whirlwind, but also for the fact that her party had been financially drained. Even now she is said to be struggling to lay her hand into the deep pockets of her likely financiers. Those who allegedly benefited during her tenure in the office are either financially bankrupt or have passed away. 

No one raises a slogan on the street of Uttar Pradesh without laying hands on the green notes. Mayawati's show of strength on the Lucknow street may be her attempts to win the support of those who have deep pockets. But they are sitting on the fence. They believe in the words of Harold Wilson, that a week is a long time in politics.

And, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are still 10 months away.