Assembly elections: Identity slingshot

Democracy by all accounts is India's greatest sociopolitical leveler. Electorate in Maharashtra and Haryana reassured all that India isn't on a course to turn into a ruthless one party politico-administrative Chinese system. That people have least appetite for vindictive politics has also been loudly told. Drum beating and cult worship aren't essentially preferences of the Indian electorate. The popular verdict in Maharashtra and Haryana is laced with clear message for the Opposition -- Believe in your strengths.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would stay in power in Maharashtra and Haryana. Yet, the outfit isn't exultant. Faces of party leaders turned long, after the full import of the verdict in the two states became clear. It evidently dawned upon BJP leaders that the party cannot dictate the agenda to the people. Democracy is all about the vice versa -- people dictating agenda to parties. 

The BJP essentially drummed being the sole custodian of the spirit of nationalism. Dissenting voices on even procedural matters were hurriedly branded anti-national. Leading voices of the BJP displayed penchant to ask for certificate of nationalism from Opposition leaders. The BJP campaign was all about commanding electorate to cast their votes to party's nominees since rivals had suspect nationalistic credentials. 

The electorate had grown bored of nationalism shrill. The neighbourhood shops weren't selling enough goods. Youth came home after losing contractual jobs. Farmers still sold produces at one tenths of the market prices. Elders watched over the idling youth spend days and nights staring at mobile phone screens with earplugs stuck in perennial entertainment trance. 

Economy has fallen flat. Spin doctors seek succor in food delivery boys running around. A few start ups create "Wows". Policy mandarins in Narendra Modi dispensation talk like business honchos. For them, India is all about a few metropolitan cities. The BJP has to bear the slingshot pain.

Victories mostly sober politicians. V P Singh hadn't sent Rajiv Gandhi to Tihar jail after the 1989 win. Atal Bihari Vajpayee also hadn't shown cells of Tihar jail to the Opposition leaders. But the 2019 Lok Sabha verdict opened the floodgate of vindictive politics. The pack of enforcement directorate (ED), CBI and others were sent on hunting grounds against Opposition leaders. Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar talked ED in his whirlwind rallies, and people said enough is enough. Same goes for Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Dushyant Choutala in Haryana. 

Identity politics has demonstratively made a strong comeback in Indian politics. The Lok Sabha verdict had spurred obituaries for identity politics. Politics in regions identified with dominant castes. Smaller castes rode piggyback to partake in the game of power. The BJP's poll mascot Narendra Modi sought to challenge this set political template. The party worked for consolidation of other castes. The ploy paid rich electoral dividends. It turned the political social engineering of a number of regional outfits on its head. But that worked when national narrative found resonance with the electorate. 

Tangible gains with welfarism push had cheered the vulnerable. Dominant castes, though, had nothing to gain from Modinomics, which is nothing but targetted delivery of subsidies. They became aware that they are staring at the prospects of a lost decade, with wealth being knocked away and income drying. Dominant castes sought to regain the lost political space. The BJP, indeed, co-opted them. But they were slotted to supporting roles. They, however, sought centrestage.  

The Congress stays in defeatist mode. The grand old party of India is yet to come to terms with the political erosion of the clout of the Gandhi family. With Sonia Gandhi back in the saddle, the reigns in regions are slowly being restored to old warhorses. That has been the Congress' political character. But that was also sought to be undone by the Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi. The Maharashtra and Haryana poll verdict makes it evident that the electorate want the Opposition to believe in their strengths and shun their doubting Thomases.

Jats in Haryana and Maratha in Maharashtra backed their trusted parties to the hilt. They have sent signals to Yadavs in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to flock to caste outfits in the two states. The economic slide may loosen smaller castes from the BJP glue. And that could open up the prospects for revival of regional outfits. 

Last nail in the coffin

A cartoonist may love to caricature PM Narendra Modi floating over Maharashtra and Haryana with hammer and nail looking lustfully at a coffin. And that will sum the whole story of the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections. 

India incubated and harnessed the art of coalition politics for over two decades. The saffron juggernaut led by Modi believes that the coalition politics accounts for most of the ills afflicting India. And, hence, Modi seeks to hammer that proverbial last nail in the coffin of the coalition politics. He thinks it could be done without wasting much of time, and, Maharashtra and Haryana offer him the right target for being home to strong regional parties -- Shiv Sena, NCP and INLD.

Modi's belief is further strengthened by the sheer lack of a competitor in the opposition camp. His campaign blitz in the two poll bound states and the size of the crowd flocking to hear him are not yet matched by any of his rivals. It will not be far from the truth that there exists no rival to his scale of campaigning. 

And that makes him to take a much bigger leap of faith and think of becoming what late Indira Gandhi was for Indian politics in 1970s and for four years in 1980s. She won states for the Congress. People in the rural areas sought divinity in her. In short, she was an icon, with no rival to match her.

Can the BJP riding on the Modi wave become what the Congress was till 1980s?

The saffron zealots would like to believe it's doable. If they succeed, Indian politics will surely take another flight towards stability. And if Modi fails to deliver, the envious run of the coalition politics since 1990s may get more legs.

It's not that the coalition politics surfaced with late V P Singh only. It had been there in pre-Independence India and briefly in 1970s through the Janata experiment. But, then, the coalition politics was there as one pole, with another being the Congress. After the mortal blow delivered by late Rajiv Gandhi to the Congress, the two polls of the Indian politics succumbed to the arms of the coalition politics. 

Modi, arguably, is not wrong to believe that the coalition politics accounts for the ills afflicting India. None has yet forgotten Madhu Koda, who as an Independent MLA became the chief minister of Jharkhand and was later found to have amassed wealth of millions of dollars through investment in mines abroad. 

Or, for that matter, late P V Narsimha Rao buying out the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) to save his government. And, the 10 years long rule of Manmohan Singh is a saga in itself of what damage the coalition politics (or its excuse) could do to the nation. Singh's meekly explaining away the compulsions of coalition politics for omissions and commissions would surely stay alive in the memory of the people for a while.

And, hence, Modi has launched his carpet bombing rallies in Maharashtra and Haryana to hold that one pole of Indian politics firmly as enjoyed by the Congress in its glory days. 

That the saffron juggernaut saw a few hiccups since the magical May verdict also did not deter the BJP

from snapping ties with its oldest ally -- the Shiv Sena.  In doing so, Modi is also taking the risk, that of excessively using his charm for local elections. And the last two decades have shown that the people have voted differently in the national and state elections. This makes Modi's political challenges more daunting. If he succeeds, he will begin inviting comparison with late Indira Gandhi. And he may help the BJP to hold one pole of Indian politics quite firmly for quite some time.

Nonetheless, the other pole of the Indian politics is set for a messy affair for quite long time. That the Congress is heading for much worse performance in Maharashtra and Haryana is all there for those who can read the writing on the wall. And, even the Sharad Pawar led NCP thought to shrug off alliance with the Congress signals the journey down the hill of Rahul Gandhi and his party.

More than electoral losses, the Congress is staring into a looming crisis of leadership. The occasional banter against Rahul Gandhi and his leadership will come in torrents after the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections. The chorus within the Congress -- a party where sycophancy and family worship is in the DNA of all of its leaders -- will become shrill for larger role of Priyanka gandhi.  

Furthermore, the Congress will be left with no option to play junior to a lot of regional satraps. Till Modi fumbles and misgovern, the Congress could wallow in the abyss of political disfavour by the mass. And, so, the party may have to ride piggyback regional parties to remain relevant.

After Maharashtra and Haryana, bitter political war would be fought in Bihar (2015), West Bengal (2016) and Uttar Pradesh (2017). That these three states are bastions of regional parties had been the constant of Indian politics in the last two decades and thereby of the coalition politics era. And, the BJP has posited itself at position to strike at the seat of power in Bihar and UP, while the saffron party is herding all anti-Mamata Banerjee elements in west Bengal.

Will Modi nail the coffin on October 19 (verdict day for Maharashtra and Haryana) or wait till 2017 will be a question to ring the political commentary for a while.