Delhi Assembly Elections: Prashant Kishor's swing management

Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal waited for seven hours to file his nomination papers from the New Delhi Assembly constituency. That was a day after his roadshow pulled in a large number of cheer crowd to make him skip filing the nomination papers. The simple filing of nomination papers hogged the limelight for two days. The BJP played along, first by floating the strategy to surprise Kejriwal with a heavyweight challenger, only to spring a tame script in Sunil Yadav, who in his only electoral experience has lost councilor's elections. The discourse surrounding the Delhi Assembly elections have so far stayed around Kejriwal, portrayed as an indomitable and sometimes as a victim of the "dirty tricks" of the BJP, in line with Prashant Kishor's election management text book.

THE BJP veteran in Jharkhand Saryu Rai had long been a critic of the party colleague and former chief minister Raghubar Das. Rai would often put down dissent note in the Cabinet decisions. He would even admit lapses in events of alleged hunger deaths in the state. Das had also long been nursing an opportunity to get rid of him and found emboldened with his Maharashtra counterpart Devendra Fadnavis, who had also purged his rivals within the party during ticket distribution. Rai knew his fate, yet patiently awaited the Central leadership to be wiser.

The BJP Central leadership thought of paying a smart game by delaying Rai's candidature from Jamshedpur (West) Assembly seat. The party would have given the nomination by making him seen begging for the ticket, which, in turn, would have pleased Das. Rai didn't play along the script, and drifted away.

An old hand in politics, Rai had rubbed shoulders with the socialists, and counted on Bihar chief

minister Nitish Kumar as his pal. Over the years, he had cultivated an image of an intellectual within the BJP. He was popularly seen honest. In the face of his party insulting him, Rai took flight to an audacious course. He decided to challenge the chief minister Das in his Jamshedpur (West) constituency, which was among the only seven seats in the state in 2014 where the winning candidate had a margin of more than 50,000 votes.

Rai hogged the limelight. He was a victim. People sympathised with an honest and educated man who was dumped by the BJP at the insistence of an arrogant chief minister. Das stayed in Ranchi. He was miser in mixing with the people in his constituency. He was seen distant and inaccessible. The stage was set for the script of a simple man taking on an arrogant drunk on power. 

The script needed an able direction to stage the act on a large canvas. The director flew in from Patna with an army of 300 assistants. He was Prashant Kishor. His army brought in posters, leaflets and wrote slogans. They knocked at the doors to tell stories of an honest man fighting a lonely battle against an arrogant chief minister. In a matter of a few days, Rai was the only topic of discussion. The ripple effect soon electrified the whole state. Das had emerged a villain. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought to cut down the damage. He patted his Cabinet colleague Arjun Munda more frequently in his election rallies. But the damage was done beyond the limits of Modi. 

IN 2015 the Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar had turned a BJP foe in the state Assembly elections. The BJP brimmed with an all conquering passion to win elections. The saffron outfit was facing a grand alliance of Nitish Kumar in the company of the Congress and the RJD. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav had become the best pals. Modi was on an error making spree. He sought to flow the river of funds from the Centre to Patna to turn Bihar into Gujarat. Worse, he hit out at Nitish Kumar, and Prashant Kishor grabbed that to run the campaign to send samples of hair for DNA testing. The BJP's well oiled electoral machinery slipped into the muddy waters of Bihar even before the people cast their votes in the first phase of elections. 

Kishor now has perfected text book to turn the victims in politicians to giant killers. His company I-Pac is currently the best political slogan writers. He in the course of a few months can apply smart touches to the images of his pay masters to the liking of the people. Kejriwal is no more seen an anarchist. The Delhi chief minister in the course of a few months, Kishor came on board unofficially with Aam Admi Party (AAP) around August, last year, has been smiling from thousands of his pictures dotting the national capital. 

Kishor has worked on the image makeover of Kejriwal. The I-Pac workers are knocking at the doors of the people to sell the story of governance. They are selling the dream that Delhi in another five years would become a place of their aspirations: free of toxic air, classrooms for all the children, and healthcare for patients.     

Delhi Assembly elections: Data drift holds cues

Predicting poll outcomes by all accounts is a perilous job. Elections are analysed on past trends. Electorates have proven wiser than pundits more often. They aren't prisoners of the past, as they script history elections after elections. Amid the maddening electioneering, data stay firm with serenity, inviting political strategists to steer narratives to help their masters for smart politics. Data for Delhi suggest the air in the city smells of a cliffhanger of the poll outcome. 

THE ruling Aam Admi Party (AAP) had weaved a magical spell in 2015. Political rivals of the incumbent chief minister Arvind Kejriwal were left shell-shocked with the final scoreboard. That was 67-3 and a naught for the Congress. The BJP had the worst tally. The saffron outfit still bears the taunt. Climbing from an abyss like situation of the single digit figure five years ago to go past the half way mark of 35 would indeed be an unprecedented somersault. For AAP, it will equally be the groundswell of popular anger to slump from the level of 67 to 30s or less would be quite a fall with thud. 

The AAP isn't just another political outfit. The party was born after Anna Hazare made the political air of Delhi pregnant with negativism during 2012-13. Negativism midwifed anarchism. Kejriwal proved an undisputed icon of the politics of anarchism. His foes were left guilt-stricken, as they bent backwards to prove their credentials of honesty and probity in public life. They vowed to innovate and herald an honest and people friendly governance. The tribe of Sheila Dikshit, Harsh Vardhan and Kiran Bedi searched for wood when their boats had already sunk.   

The 2015 scoreboard read: AAP 54.3 per cent vote share and 67 Assembly seats; BJP 32.3 per cent vote share and 3 Assembly seats; and the Congress 9.7 per cent vote share and zero Assembly seats.

But that wasn't the maiden electoral venture of AAP in politics. Kejriwal cut off his umbilical chord with his godfather Anna Hazare to contest the December 2013 Assembly polls. The cadre of the AAP wasn't yet properly built. The party was still sloganeering. 

The 2013 scoreboard read: AAP 29.5 per cent vote share and 28 Assembly seats; BJP 33 per cent vote share and 31 Assembly seats; and the Congress 24.6 per cent vote share and eight Assembly seats.

In  span of a few months, Kejriwal built the cadre for AAP, with donations pouring from the affluent class within the country and abroad, helping him to maintain an army of well paid functionaries. With the likes of Kumar Vishwas, Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav leading the most vicious attacks on the mainstream political parties, Kejriwal strode as the alternative politics warrior, swearing to slay the rivals in the electoral battlefield. The Congress fell for the trap, and helped Kejriwal become chief minister. That bloated the persona of Kejriwal further, and soon he didn't need the Congress crutches. He read the politics well, and played the victim card to the hilt.

People flocked to Kejriwal, with 54.3 per cent vote share in 2015. His rivals turned into pygmies. The new political icon was born. But within a few months, drift set in the Kejriwal camp, as all those who bloated him into an extraordinary exponent of alternative politics parted ways after much breast-beating. 

TWO years later, the AAP faced the litmus test to repeat the magical spell of 2015. The BJP had been in power in the municipal corporation of Delhi for a decade, completing two full terms. The AAP cadre was mobilised to oust the BJP from the MCD, which, incidentally, has over 90 per cent connect with the people on a daily basis. The BJP was up against significant anti-incumbency. The BJP chief Amit Shah sought shelter in simple strategy; he just told the incumbent Councillors that they should climb the political ladder and focus on contesting the next Assembly elections. The BJP fielded fresh crop of the party workers.

The 2017 municipal elections' scoreboard read: AAP 26 per cent vote share and 49 seats; BJP 37 per cent vote share and 181 seats; and the Congress 21 per cent vote share and 31 seats.     

From 54.3 per cent vote share in 2015, AAP came down to 26 per cent; the BJP after staying firm with 33 per cent (2013) and 32.3 per cent (2015) rose to 37 per cent; and the Congress made a smart recovery from an embarrassing 9.7 per cent (2015) to 21 per cent. 

In 2017 again the AAP got another jolt. The outfit had found fertile ground in Punjab, and was seen on course to wrest power from Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine. The Delhi drift had its own parallel in Punjab for AAP. The Congress' old horse Captain Amarinder Singh strode high to leave AAP huffing and puffing at distant second.             

PEOPLE undeniably have made distinctions between local and national elections. Chhatishgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand have shown that the electorate can with ease make distinct choices in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. In Odisha, the electorate cast votes simultaneously for Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, and showed preferences for Narendra Modi in New Delhi and Navin Patnaik in Bhubaneshwar.  

Still, the data are significant, for Delhi appears on a certain course. The BJP swept the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, with the perfect scoreboard of 7-0. The 2019 endorsed the previous scorecard, with scales going higher.

The 2014 scoreboard read: AAP 32.90 per cent vote share and zero seat; BJP 46.40 per cent vote share and seven Lok Sabha seats; and the Congress 15.10 per cent vote share and zero seat. 

The BJP had seen a negative swing of about 14 per cent in the 2015 Assembly elections. The AAP correspondingly registered over 21 per cent of positive swing, mostly gaining at the expense of the Congress. 

 The 2019 scoreboard read: AAP 18 per cent vote share and zero seat; BJP 56.58 per cent vote share and seven Lok Sabha seats; and the Congress 18 per cent vote share and zero seat.

For BJP, the scores in recent elections are 33 per cent (2013), 46.40 per cent (2014), 32.3 per cent (2015), 37 per cent (2017), 56.58 per cent (2019). In the five recent polls, the BJP hasn't gone down 32.3 per cent even when the party arguably shot in the foot by fielding an ex-cop Kiran Bedi in 2015. 

The AAP in contrast has seen wild swing of vote share from 18 per cent (2019) to 54.3 per cent in 2015. The graph is surely not steady. The AAP, in fact, came third in 2019. 

The 2015 elections in Delhi was a watershed moment. The BJP saw 14 per cent vote share knocked away in the face of the magical spell of AAP. Delhi was high on romance in 2015. The level of romance was two per cent higher in 2019, with adoration for a different entity. 

The BJP's worst case scenario could be another 14 per cent drift, which may leave the saffron outfit still with 42 per cent popular votes. To level, the AAP will need 24 per cent of the positive swing from 2019. And, that would surely be reckoned a daunting task.    

Delhi may throw a tantalizingly cliffhanger election outcome on February 11.

Citizenship Amendment Act: Flying embers in times of urban unrest

Students are swelling in numbers on the streets. They've braved chill in the air. Showers from water canons haven't doused the fire in the bellies of the protestors. Universities, mostly in metropolitan cities, are squirming with angst. Air smells of feverish emotions. The new decade dawned with loud shrieks from the youth, underlining their hatred for the ruling dispensation in India. That Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are no strangers to hatred is not forgotten by those with eyes and ears for the fast changing Indian democratic flavours.

INDIAN Parliament has been seized of the pressing needs for the amendments in the Citizenship Act for a few decades. The voice for amendments in the Parliament began gaining visible strength from 2003. Politicians cutting across party lies made sympathetic overtures for granting citizenship to thousands of refugees. Such refugees who fled neighbouring Islamic countries due to religious persecutions have been spread out in many cities for past three decades, while they continue to seek ways to come to India on the back of radical Islamist choosing them for their bigotry even in the recent times. The influx will not stop of such people even while the Citizenship Amendment Act draws the curtain of December 31, 2014 for them to gain Indian nationality. 

Deliberations in the Parliamentary standing committee of the Ministry of Home Affairs largely concurred that the refugees belonging to the majority community in Bangladesh cannot be considered for citizenship. Muslim refugees from Pakistan and Afghanistan aren't in any significant number to warrant attention. Muslims from Bangladesh, popularly called ghuspaithiya (illegal migrants), have, however, been in numbers to polarise election campaigns, with a few political parties vowing to throw them out of the country. Assam has seen riots in areas inhabited by them since 1980s. Assam was torn apart in the face of the swift demographic changes, posing an existential crisis to the Assamese identity.

Demographic changes, substantially altering linguistic and cultural identities of districts bordering West Bengal and Bihar with Bangladesh in the course of 1990s and the first decade of the new millennium, were swift. Waves of illegal migrants from Bangladesh mingled in Indian habitations unhindered and unquestioned. The military dictatorship in Bangladesh after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman had co-opted the radical Islamist. The free flow of Saudi money to further the Wahabi stream of militant Islam found fertile grounds in Bangladesh. That the Parliamentary voices underlined security risk from such unabated flow of illegal Bangladeshi migrants indeed reflected the ground realities.

THE National Register for Citizens (NRC), committed in the Assam Accord and implemented under the watch of the Supreme Court, bared the religious fault lines. The cut off date for the people to make into the list was March 25, 1971. Over 19 lakhs were excluded from the final list for which over 3.31 crore people had applied. The BJP was livid, for the party leaders claimed that 12 lakh Bengali Hindus found their claim rejected. The BJP leaders fumed that over 90 per cent of the alleged Bangladeshi illegal migrants actually made into the final list. Predictably, the BJP government in Assam rejected the NRC held in Assam.

Indian Parliament exhaustively debated the draft legislation on the Citizenship Amendment Bill. The BJP also faced internal dissent in its Assam unit, with some expressing that there would be backlash if the Bengali Hindus are granted citizenship. The Central BJP leaders held firm and went ahead with clear intent that the Hindus in Assam would gain citizenship. The Bill excluded the Muslims from the ambit, while other minorities in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan -- Christians, Buddhists, Parsi, Jains and Sikhs -- made into the beneficiary list. Such refugees from Pakistan and Afghanistan are said to be just little over 30,000. The BJP leaders have guessed Bangladesh illegal Muslim migrants in excess of one crore (100 million).

"The Citizenship Amendment Act is meant principally for the Bengali Hindus in Assam," said a senior BJP leader in an informal chat with scribes.

THE BJP chief Amit Shah has rewritten the political script of Indian politics. In Narendra Modi, Shah had a campaigner to allow the BJP to overwhelm inimical political hindrances. Shah rejoices in politics of confrontation. In Parliament, his debates are essentially confined to winning the arguments, with facts and instances from the past, which are uncomfortable to the Opposition. In electoral politics, he demonstrated effortlessly that the age old might of the strategic Muslim voting was just rudderless. He scored the rare triple century for the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, leaving opponents gripped with morbid fear of irrelevance.       

Shah was among the first few to occupy the chair in the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhavan when Modi took oath for his second term. The men and women in the council of ministers largely consisted of the aids of Shah. It was apparent that Modi had chosen his second in command and possibly the heir. Shah proved soon that he was in a hurry. In a swift and sudden move, Shah wrote a new script for Jammu and Kashmir. He made it simple to disbelief of even his supporters that the Article 370 could just be wished away with a Parliamentary resolution. Shah endeared to the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh (RSS) with one bold stroke. To the delight of the RSS, he owned up the moral ownership of the Citizenship Amendment Bill, and grabbed a narrative for the next five years by becoming vocal on the NRC.    

In a matter of six months, it's not Modi but Shah who is being talked about in the country. With his alter ego Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in India, accounting for one-sixth population of the country, the BJP-RSS brass know that the Hindutva would stay at the center stage of the popular discourse in the coming years.

Lok Sabha had passed the Citizenship Amendment Bill in 2018. The CPI (M) MP Mohammed Salim and AIMIM MP Asaduddin Owaisi made the obvious noise. There were hardly any noteworthy protests on the streets of New Delhi. The Bill lapsed with the dissolution of the 16th Lok Sabha. The 17th Lok Sabha inaugurated with the BJP led government going in a tearing hurry to gain Parliamentary approvals to host of legislative bills, with government not shying away from pushing the contentious legislation. The NDA being in minority in Rajya Sabha proved no hindrance to Shah. From legislation against the practice of triple talaq (instant divorce) within the Muslim community to the dilution of Article 370, besides the Citizenship Amendment Act, flew with the Parliamentary favours with ease. The BJP under the watch of Shah in the government was seen possessed with the might to rewrite the Constitution o India by the opponents.    

The battle lost in Parliament and elections for long have been waged on the streets.