Narendra Modi: Messiah mirage

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is piqued that his government is not yet hailed as messiah of the poor. That the poor have availed benefits of Rs 1400 crores so far from just two schemes of accidental and life insurance should have led to any other government hailed as a messiah, but not his, lamented Modi recently. Exuberant tone and tenor of Modi of the past is indeed betraying whining signs with 2019 date with people approaching quick enough.

INDIAN economy in the last quarter clocked a 6.3 per cent growth. It was on the back of 5.7 per cent shocker of the first quarter of the current fiscal. Within minutes of flash of the number, the Modi Cabinet dawned in full force to force awaken people about the dream run of the economy under the leadership of the Prime Minister.  There is no break from the pattern. 

National gloom arguably in the last years of the Manmohan Singh led government had been also on account of the economy ebbing, with last growth number registering 4.7 per cent. A few months in power, a prescient Modi government had revised the GDP calculation method in the fag end of 2014. That helped the last UPA growth number swell from 4.7 per cent to 6.5 per cent. If we just forget the prescient revision of norms, the last GDP growth number would come to about 4.5 per cent, which would be lower than the worst of the UPA's. About four and a half years ago, the reason for national gloom is now indeed a cause for national celebrations if the spin doctors of the Modi dispensation are to be believed.

"More than 15 crore poor have benefited from just two schemes of the government, which insure life and accident for 90 paisa a day and Rs 1 a month contributions. The poor have benefited with Rs 1400 crores so far. If any other government had done so much, it would have been hailed as a messiah," Modi gushed at the HT Leadership summit recently.

The media certainly seems at fault to have missed out from hailing Modi as a messiah ! This is the way the BJP looks at the media, that it should blow trumpet and sing paean. But that will be too much for asking, as contemporary history bears an undeniable proof.

Modi had cashed in on the aspirational dreams of the poor to break free from their existing conditions. He sought to pursue Make in India and Skill India with vigour. Both have gone adrift on a high sea now. If dream jobs were not created by the industrialists following the command of Modi, he sought to smoke out the rats sitting on mounds of black money. Demonetisation was unveiled. The Modi managers argue that demonetisation helped informal economy become formal. And, thus, all talks of job loss are hogwash.

"I have a report of the CMIE (Centre for monitoring Indian economy). I can bet you on your claims of job loss," PM's Economic Advisory Council (PM-EAC) chairman Bibek Debroy had blurted out when asked after the first meeting of the panel on concerns of employment loss in the country due to demonetisation. The CMIE within a month came up with its latest data, stating that 15 lakh people lost jobs in immediate months after demonetisation. The NSSO (National Sample Survey Organisation) data would come in after a long time to give an actual picture of employment. Since then the PM-EAC has held two more meetings, but Debroy has not yet come out to face the media. He obviously lost the bet hands down.

FORMER Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha, who is wrecker-in-chief of dream world of Modi

government, argues that the only way to find the extent of damage done to the economy on account of demonetisation is to look at anecdotal data in the absence of NSSO statistics. "Post-demonetisation, the small and medium enterprises in the unorganised sector bore the brunt of demonetisation. Those who lost jobs went back to their villages. That becomes evident from the Modi government making additional provision of Rs 11,000 crore under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). Since the MGNREGS is an employment avenue of the last resort, it 's evident that there had been extensive job loss," Sinha told this blogger.

By all accounts, the Modi government in its tenure will not be touching eight per cent GDP growth. Economists agree that India needs to grow at eight per cent growth for 21 years in a row to lift its people out of poverty. By forcing India to a six-seven per cent growth path, Modi has arguably condemned the poor to remain poorer for far long time.   

There's, indeed, reason for Modi not yet been declared a messiah.