Summer of 2012

Pranab Mukherjee's nomination for Presidential election has cast a shadow over the political process, which is fraught with many ramifications.

Indian summer of 2012 will stay in memory for long. A lot of political drama took place in New Delhi, while more may also unfold. Aftereffects of the way India's next President has been chosen may be felt for a long time. Authorities have been challenged and belittled.

Pranab Mukherjee has impressive political experience matched by few

Seventy two hours after two regional kshatraps -- Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee -- outmaneuvered UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi in picking India's next Presidential candidate, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee profusely thanked all for showing trust in him. 

Another forty eight hours later the self-declared crusader against corruption -- Arvind Kejriwal -- cast his doubt on Mukherjee. He tweeted that there are serious allegations of corruption against Mukherjee. He had earlier done what no politicians had dared to do by accusing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of corruption. 

Kejriwal may not be just a stone pelter. He is standing up to the might of the establishment. It's not a joke. 

Mulayam Singh Yadav has gone on records to say that he pressured the Congress to declare Mukherjee's name. What he is not spelling out is that he played his role in the act which might have been scripted by Mukherjee himself. As a politician with tonnes of experience in outsmarting others, Mukherjee may have known that Sonia Gandhi could have cut short his journey to Raisina Hill. 

Authority of Sonia Gandhi has clearly been belittled. She is stated to have met Mulayam Singh Yadav twice in those 72 hours. This was a job that her political advisor Ahmed Patel did all these years. If Mukherjee was not her choice and she was forced to name him, then her political hold has clearly diminished. The perception of weakened political grip would make her vulnerable. This is a bad news for Congress.

The UPA-II has been damned as one of the most bureaucratic government that India ever saw. Likes of P Chidambaram, Kapil Sibbal and Salman Khurshid represent UPA-II. Commentators have already written their political obituaries. 

Mukherjee is one last political face surviving in UPA-II. His exit would strip UPA-II of all political credibility. Though he rushed to welcome Ramdev at airport and watched while scores of CAG indicated scams unfolded, Mukherjee still blunted all round political attacks on UPA-II so far. 

Mukherjee's absence from treasury benches in Lok Sabha will surely make UPA-II a sitting duck. 

Irony is that after a semblance of consultation on Presidential election, which included Sonia Gandhi's talks with Ajit Singh, Ram Vilas Paswan, T R Balu -- consensus is being thrusted on Opposition NDA on Mukherjee's name. Worse is that the NDA is wavering in calling the bluff. Therefore, Mamata Banerjee has rightfully emerged as the true voice of dissent.

Positioning of 2014 or a mid-term poll has already begun. NDA, which looked as if dead for some years, all of a sudden appear netting many friends. Summer of 2012 will prolong, as even Monsoon wants so.  

Raisina hill calling

Short-tempered Pranab Mukherjee must now have started believing himself in the reckoning for India's race for next President. He is clearly an old world relic. Seen as a man who carries more weight than he can handle, Mukherjee has reasons to dream that the Congress president Sonia Gandhi gives him a retirement solution in Raisina Hill.  

Since taking over as the Finance Minister, Mukherjee has taken India's economy down the hill in quick time. Economy is in shambles. People are price hit. Employment generation has frozen. Savings of middle class have gone. Necessities of the day are beyond the reach. Still, Mukherjee is the darling of many, who day-dream him as the next President.

New Delhi's disconnect with India is self-evident.

However, Politics does not oblige day-dreamers. Politics is about cold-blooded calculations. 

Gandhi will weigh many a things than thinking of a retiring solution for Mukherjee only. The Congress led UPA is hurtling down. This may outweigh all other reasons. 

Many believe that the UPA has already slipped into the self-dug grave. More people think that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh led UPA-II is busy in digging much deeper grave for the Congress. 

UPA-II's disconnect with the Congress is also quite apparent. Nine out of 10 Congressmen say that they would have to be out of power for quite a long time. It takes some time for people to forget the pain giver. When the world is talking of gloom, Gandhi could not be so insulated. She has to think of future. She has to plan for the prince (Rahul Gandhi).

Late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had arrived unannounced. His mother had clearly not planned for him. Mukherjee had made his ambition clear, when he had stated that the senior most member in the Cabinet should succeed Late Indira Gandhi. However, there was Giani Zail Singh to keep the Family protected. Will Mukherjee be a Zail Singh if a situation like that of 1984 arises? 

Most in the Congress and also in government want Manmohan Singh to retire. For the services that he has done to the nation, he has his claims for Raisina Hill. He has enjoyed unconditional support of the Gandhi family all these years. He will not be a person to betray the trust of the Family, if at all Rahul Gandhi needed a helping hand from the Raisina Hill.

The Congress leaders are of the view, that with Manmohan Singh in Raisina Hill they would have another two years to win back some of the support or attempt to climb out of the self-dug grave. Mukherjee could be the Prime Minister for two years. Even if the Congress is routed in 2014, Rahul Gandhi can concentrate on Mission 2019 with free hand. He will be about 49 years of age by then and would have gathered enough political experience. After sitting in Opposition for five years, the Congress would gain due strength as well.

As one Union minister said that Sonia Gandhi is in a quandary akin to Hamlet. "To be or not to be". The minister may be wrong also. She must have made her decision already.

However, the Congress, as Harish Khare had remarked once, is a status quoist party. The Family does not burn mid-night oil to satisfy the kite flying industry. So, there would not be a surprise if the Congress pulls out of its hat someone like Pratibha Devi Patil.