Last nail in the coffin

A cartoonist may love to caricature PM Narendra Modi floating over Maharashtra and Haryana with hammer and nail looking lustfully at a coffin. And that will sum the whole story of the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections. 

India incubated and harnessed the art of coalition politics for over two decades. The saffron juggernaut led by Modi believes that the coalition politics accounts for most of the ills afflicting India. And, hence, Modi seeks to hammer that proverbial last nail in the coffin of the coalition politics. He thinks it could be done without wasting much of time, and, Maharashtra and Haryana offer him the right target for being home to strong regional parties -- Shiv Sena, NCP and INLD.

Modi's belief is further strengthened by the sheer lack of a competitor in the opposition camp. His campaign blitz in the two poll bound states and the size of the crowd flocking to hear him are not yet matched by any of his rivals. It will not be far from the truth that there exists no rival to his scale of campaigning. 

And that makes him to take a much bigger leap of faith and think of becoming what late Indira Gandhi was for Indian politics in 1970s and for four years in 1980s. She won states for the Congress. People in the rural areas sought divinity in her. In short, she was an icon, with no rival to match her.

Can the BJP riding on the Modi wave become what the Congress was till 1980s?

The saffron zealots would like to believe it's doable. If they succeed, Indian politics will surely take another flight towards stability. And if Modi fails to deliver, the envious run of the coalition politics since 1990s may get more legs.

It's not that the coalition politics surfaced with late V P Singh only. It had been there in pre-Independence India and briefly in 1970s through the Janata experiment. But, then, the coalition politics was there as one pole, with another being the Congress. After the mortal blow delivered by late Rajiv Gandhi to the Congress, the two polls of the Indian politics succumbed to the arms of the coalition politics. 

Modi, arguably, is not wrong to believe that the coalition politics accounts for the ills afflicting India. None has yet forgotten Madhu Koda, who as an Independent MLA became the chief minister of Jharkhand and was later found to have amassed wealth of millions of dollars through investment in mines abroad. 

Or, for that matter, late P V Narsimha Rao buying out the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) to save his government. And, the 10 years long rule of Manmohan Singh is a saga in itself of what damage the coalition politics (or its excuse) could do to the nation. Singh's meekly explaining away the compulsions of coalition politics for omissions and commissions would surely stay alive in the memory of the people for a while.

And, hence, Modi has launched his carpet bombing rallies in Maharashtra and Haryana to hold that one pole of Indian politics firmly as enjoyed by the Congress in its glory days. 

That the saffron juggernaut saw a few hiccups since the magical May verdict also did not deter the BJP

from snapping ties with its oldest ally -- the Shiv Sena.  In doing so, Modi is also taking the risk, that of excessively using his charm for local elections. And the last two decades have shown that the people have voted differently in the national and state elections. This makes Modi's political challenges more daunting. If he succeeds, he will begin inviting comparison with late Indira Gandhi. And he may help the BJP to hold one pole of Indian politics quite firmly for quite some time.

Nonetheless, the other pole of the Indian politics is set for a messy affair for quite long time. That the Congress is heading for much worse performance in Maharashtra and Haryana is all there for those who can read the writing on the wall. And, even the Sharad Pawar led NCP thought to shrug off alliance with the Congress signals the journey down the hill of Rahul Gandhi and his party.

More than electoral losses, the Congress is staring into a looming crisis of leadership. The occasional banter against Rahul Gandhi and his leadership will come in torrents after the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections. The chorus within the Congress -- a party where sycophancy and family worship is in the DNA of all of its leaders -- will become shrill for larger role of Priyanka gandhi.  

Furthermore, the Congress will be left with no option to play junior to a lot of regional satraps. Till Modi fumbles and misgovern, the Congress could wallow in the abyss of political disfavour by the mass. And, so, the party may have to ride piggyback regional parties to remain relevant.

After Maharashtra and Haryana, bitter political war would be fought in Bihar (2015), West Bengal (2016) and Uttar Pradesh (2017). That these three states are bastions of regional parties had been the constant of Indian politics in the last two decades and thereby of the coalition politics era. And, the BJP has posited itself at position to strike at the seat of power in Bihar and UP, while the saffron party is herding all anti-Mamata Banerjee elements in west Bengal.

Will Modi nail the coffin on October 19 (verdict day for Maharashtra and Haryana) or wait till 2017 will be a question to ring the political commentary for a while.

Ear to ground

Who is the most guarded entity in India? 

If a name out of President or Prime Minister of India or Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi or Lal Krishna Advani or Narendra Modi or Mayawati props up in your mind, you're wrong.

It's Ram Lulla in Ayodhya. And he does not lord us over from a palace but a small, a little bigger than a large umbrella, tent. But the security that He commands is to be seen to be believed. Did I err here; yes I think, because He hardly needs any security and, hence, thousands of men in uniforms are largely there to guard the place against weaknesses of lesser mortals. 

Still, people queue up as long as five km to have a fleeting darshan of Him. None complaints even if he is

soaked in sweat on a summer afternoon. Not far away the Saryu is still as majestic as it would have been in the days of Lordship of Ram. Splash your face with the Saryu waters and you feel you can sprint for a few kms straight.

In the by-lanes of Ayodhya, you may invariably come across a man riding a motorcycle with his forehead all but taken away by tika (religious mark). In an end number of temples in Ayodhya, priests will tell that they have pledged their votes for this man, who makes it a point that he seeks blessings of deities by noon. 

That man is Lallu Singh. For over 22 years he was an MLA of Ayodhya. So, one should have expected people on the street to talk of him again, for innumerable giant pillars with beautiful carvings lie around awaiting the grand dream of a majestic temple built in Ayodhya becoming a reality. 

But that was not the case. And a 12-year old boy, still in school uniform, with sparkle in eyes explaining how the economy of Ayodhya could metamorphose into a glittery dream world if the temple became a reality, talked of a eunuch. Gulshan Bindu was swearing in on Lord Hanuman to cure all ills of Ayodhya and she was getting the crowd to believe her words. 

In Faizabad town (Ayodhya is part of it), a BJP election office was all but deserted. Over a cup of tea, the story unfolded from a hardened Hindutva foot-soldier, that Sonia Gandhi had conspired to send the eunuch in the holy town. Expanding the conspiracy theory further, he included Mulayam Singh Yadav also in laying the trap by fielding a Brahmin candidate -- Tej Narain Pandey alias Pawan Pandey -- against Lallu Singh. 

Incidentally, Pandey was then a rookie politician just out of the college and had earned his reputation of a street-fighter in student's union politics. True to the harsh reality of students' politics in UP, Pandey by then had a number of criminal cases against him but what mattered most was Akhilesh Yadav's benign eyes set on him.

Soon, Pandey defeated Lallu Singh, and Ayodhya got a young MLA after 22 years. That was 2012 UP Assembly elections.

In the same season, on a return journey to Delhi from Etawa, the pocket borough of Mulayam, after a rally, our vehicle stopped at a place for tea and snacks-stockings. A bearded man ensured that it was done fast. He did a namaste to the co-passenger, a Samajwadi Party leader. 

"Guess, who is he," teased the Samajwadi. "No idea" came promptly. "He is a BJP MLA from here and is joining us. Now, guess who is sending him to SP," said the Samajwadi. To another "no idea", he said "it's Varun Gandhi". That was also before 2012 UP Assembly elections.  

A few months before, a top BJP leader had said, off-the-record, that the party had a budget of Rs 200 crores for UP Assembly elections. More must have been spent, one can assume quite safely.

Still, the BJP was handed over the worst defeat in the state and it could win just 47 seats out of 403. And that marked an end to the emotive brand of politics that Advani had mid-wifed in 1990s. 

Not more than two years later, the surveys now predict the BJP winning 40 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP. What happened in between is the big story that will be investigated and analysed in the times to come.

More than a year back, Amit Shah took charge of UP. The Kali Dadhi in the tapes of Gulail neither holds

press conferences no addresses rallies. He does not hit headlines also. But surveys are there and Narendra Modi has addressed some of the biggest rallies in the state so far. So, he has been working and results are being seen.

Ask those who know what's Shah doing and you would be told "micro-management". And through this Shah is making BJP's transition from the proponent of emotive politics to one of bread and butter.

"Out of 1.25 lakh booths, he left out 25,000, which were in the Muslim dominated areas, knowing that they will never vote for his party. In each of the booth, he has set up a team of about six people. They all have smart phones and have been taken to various parts of the country to acquaint them with know-hows of networking. It's ensured that these people never fall short of money and no one asks them how did they spend the money. They can directly connect to Shah on phone," sources in the saffron party said.

Next, they add, Shah set up a team of three to four people in each of the 74,000 Gram Panchayats in UP. They too got same training, money and phone as those at the booth levels. He further rose to the block and district level. And, thus, in the course of a year he set up a multi-tier teams of people running into lakhs with whom Shah has held many close-door meetings.

Additionally, he told all the "big leaders" of the BJP in UP (about 10) that they should let him know from where they would contest Lok Sabha elections and should not waste their time in ensuring tickets for their acolytes. And, thus, he bulldozed all factions in the party, which were earlier working at cross-purposes.

So, when Modi has to address a rally in UP, Shah's cells from booth to Gram Panchayat to block to district get activated and they arrange to bring people on their own at the venue. Thus, the buzz is created right at the ground zero a month before Modi addresses the rally and with huge size of the crowd the message is delivered, that the Modi wave has set in.

And, thus, the BJP, whose obituary was written in 2012 Assembly elections, seems running away with most number of Lok Sabha seats in UP. That also gives a major fillip to Modi's aim of reaching close to the magic figure of 272. The difference in Advani's BJP and that of Modi is massive hard work, planning and funds in the hands of workers not leaders.