Minimum Income Guarantee: Plot to handcuff India

A fortnight ahead of first ballots to be cast, Congress president Rahul Gandhi unveiled script to thrust his party at the centerstage of 2019 Lok Sabha elections. With promise of Rs 12,000 a month for five crore poor, 20 per cent of the total poverty stricken households, Gandhi ushered in a Rs 3.60 lakh crore annual package to blunt the march of BJP's mascot Narendra Modi. In the absence of repackaging of subsidy programmes, currently implemented worth  Rs 7 lakh crore, Gandhi is arguably calling for freezing nearly 40 per cent of India's total annual Budget to stay politically relevant. 

ONLY a few days ago, Congress' poll wizardry in unleashing Priyanka Gandhi Vadra wrapped up her Ganga yatra. Ensconced in a customized boat with necessary comforts, she sought to rekindle the old touch of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. But crowd hungry television crews struggled to find thronging mass of people during the course of yatra. The political voyage was scratchy and revealing. The verdict within the Congress was evident, that the magical touch of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is suspect. 

The Opposition grand alliances in parts of the country have shown contempt for the Congress. Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati, holding the turf of Uttar Pradesh, found no merit in giving lease of life to the Congress in the state where the grand old party is in prolonged vegetative state. Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal) would not yield an inch to the Congress, which is gasping for breath in the state. The Congress remains a baggage on the back of Lalu Prasad's heirs in Bihar. Regional satraps' shunning Congress robbed the main Opposition party of the political depth to claim the status of a challenger of the ruling BJP.

Former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian in the 'Economic Survey (2016-17)' floated the idea of universal basic income. Early this year, he followed his idea with a book -- Of Counsel: The challenges of the Modi-Jaitely economy -- publicly lobbied for political acceptance of the idea of universal basic income (UBI). 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemingly has no appetite for doles of universal nature. His statecraft is embedded in targeted welfarism. That he shunned the proposal for a universal farmer income support for small and marginal farmers with an annual cost of Rs 75000 crore is a definitive illustration. So, Modi didn't fall for Subramanian's welfarism prescription, which in some forms are being implemented in China, Germany, Canada, United Kingdom and elsewhere. 

THE Congress has principally been slammed by party sympathisers for failure to come out with a narrative to counter Modi. The Congress stayed the course of Modi the person bashing all five years. Sympathisers were rightly alarmed, for knowing well that Modi thrives on negativism. And, consequently, Rahul Gandhi clutched on the Subramanian straw to stay relevant in the elections.

Union Minister Arun Jaitely has said that the NDA government currently is running subsidy programmes worth Rs 7 lakh crores. The annual Budget size of India is about Rs 24 lakh crore. So, Rahul Gandhi's dole could take the subsidy burden to about Rs 11 lakh crore, accounting for almost 40 per cent of the national resources. That the question on how would additional Rs 3.60 lakh crore be mobilized was left unanswered by Gandhi on expected line. That the inflationary impact and the consequent mortal blows to economy weren't worth shedding light by the Congress leadership was also on predictable line. Answers to details would rob the magic of Congress' political art of revisiting 'Garibi Hatao' slogan.

Former vice chairman of NITI Aayog Arvind Panagaria, the only economist worth mentioning in the Modi dispensation for first three years, has reasoned that universal basic income or its any variant would only mean that there would be no incentive for work. All those earning less than Rs 12,000 a month would find incentivized to stay home. The government will pay for their leisure. Agriculture could be denied farm labour. The informal sector's labour cost could go up punitively. That the Congress is brewing a recipe to make India more lazy arguably isn't an outlandish claim.         

One doesn't need to be an economist to know that there's no scope for India to expand its resources by additional Rs 3.60 lakh crore imminently. That makes it incumbent that the resources being earmarked for infrastructure upgrade -- rail, road and port -- would face the axe. The spiral effect of mortally wounding developmental resources would unleash wave of employment for the educated youth. 

INDIA evidently can ill afford the political expediency of a political outfit scrounging for survival tricks. Economists must come out of their closets to unequivocally condemn Congress' recipe for economic disaster.    

           

Lok Sabha elections: Wilting caste factor

BETWEEN cheerleaders and naysayers of Indian airstrike against Pakistani terror bases following Pulwama attack lies firming up of electoral narrative, that nationalism is pushing casteism to the margins. With two surgical strikes in BJP's arsenals, the Opposition undeniably has an uphill task to steer public discourse back to issues affecting the masses. Lok Sabha elections, beginning 40 days from now, is pregnant with possibilities to change the future course of Indian politics.

CASTE swept through the political narrative in 1990s. Social justice juggernaut, with firm grip by 1980s, succumbed to mutation within a decade. Personal aspirations of regional political satraps took higher flights on deepening of caste faultlines. The Congress, indeed, commanded caste rainbows in its belt for long, but with a pan-India appeal. The Congress yielded space in state after state to caste leaders soon after the VP Singh led Janata Dal imploded with the might of inner contradictions. Narendra Modi led BJP delivered first mortal blows to caste satraps in 2014 by riding on aspirational plank. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections promises to show if the caste satraps could clutch on to prevailing arithmetic to live another day in Indian politics.

Demography is fast changing. A vast chunk of Indian youth have few recollections of contemporary political history. Growing expanse of education and access to climb social and economic ladders deny alibi to lament lack of opportunity. Nearly 25 crore of Indian electorate are said to be in age group of 18-25. This chunk rubs shoulders in educational and professional institutions with peers of a cross-section of castes. That may be blunting caste consciousness as well. Besides, shrinking of employment opportunities along with a largescale expansion of access to educational institutions are taking the shine out of charm of reservation bogey. The principal anchor of caste satraps could possibly be adrift on high sea. Additionally, family proprietorship of caste based political outfits also ensured that they remained stuck in the narrative of 1990s. 

THREE decades are too long a period to milk the same plank. Satraps aged and passed batons to their offspring. Original proponents toiled hard amidst the masses. Their offspring grew up in comforts. Satraps were grounded. Offspring show up at stages. Satraps lorded over a large base of peers. Offspring have few.

Messrs Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Om Prakash Choutala, Kansi Ram, Ram Vilas Paswan, and others have faded. They indeed passed batons to their respective heirs. Likes of Akhilesh Yadav, Tejaswi Yadav, Ajay Choutala, Mayawati have reaped gains of last gust of legacies of satraps. They stuck to old plank, and refused to evolve with times. Consequently, they were struck with full might of fast changing demographic profile. Paswan, indeed, survived, but only for reason that he he read the changing weather well to clutch onto season's flavor.       

A few other remnants of 1990s, which include the likes of H D Kumaraswamy, stay alive with the power of arithmetic in Indian politics.

Yet, a few of social justice campaigners who branched out of caste satraps remain potent till days by perfecting social welfarism. Navin Patnaik and Nitish Kumar aren't caste satraps, but couched in all pervasive welfarism suited to their turfs abundant with poverty.  

Electoral rise of the BJP and Congress would undeniably shrink spaces for casteist political outfits. Not that the BJP and Congress aren't embedded in caste arithmetic, but they stitch broader equations with national narratives. People haven't also shunned casteism in their preferences. Socially caste is arguably more explicit. But political import of caste identities in electoral politics is evidently wilting with emergence of strong leadership at the national level.

That a few of the chief ministers -- Kamal Nath, Devendra Fadanvis, Manohar Lal Khattar, Raghubar Das, Arvind Kejriwal, Vijay Rupani -- come from electorally insignificant caste groups demonstrate that the fast changing demography and their aspirations are guiding Indian politics to an altogether new territory.    

Emergence of nationalism on the back of popular fatigue and angst against terror strikes in the country could possibly deliver the knock out punch to already weakened caste politics. The youth, particularly, has explicit aversion to status quoism. What passed on as fatalistic sense of resignation is not popularly accepted. That India struck against sources of terrorism is an undercurrent sweeping through the youth yearning for a collective catharsis from mortal blows of status quoism. 

RISK takers, indeed, are rewarded. A Modi led BJP has a rare opportunity to push electoral caste into oblivion. Rahul Gandhi led Congress could also draw a sense of relief, that the lost turf to caste satrap is up for grabs sooner.