Gujarat elections: Hopes in saffron angst land

In 2014, India voted for Gujarat model of development. Three years later, BJP mascot Narendra Modi invented Pakistan's prowess to influence outcome of Gujarat elections. That the Gujarat dream, which swayed India in 2014, seemed dimming in the land of origin was evident in length and breadth of the state. Indeed, the verdict is more than the sum total of issues, and is more subservient to organisational might and pull and pressure of foot soldiers may well be on display again.  

CHINTU Patel is an angry man. Two years ago, he was chased by the police. His wife ran for safety. His daughter was awe struck. He bore the blows of sticks. Scars on his body have still remained. Patel has vowed to vote against the BJP.

Agravat Raj is a diploma holder in computer engineering. In Ahmedabad, he couldn't find a job of more than Rs 6000 pacy check a month. So, he became a driver. Hailing from Rajkot, he had to shift base since his wife is pursuing Masters in computer engineering. It was a love marriage, he firmly states. He knows for sure that the BJP would win, and he too would vote for Modi.     

Villagers benefited with Narmada waters near Bhuj

The British premier Harold Wilson is credited to have said that a week is a long time in politics. Fifteen years certainly should be quite a long time. The 2002 post-Godhra riots gave Gujarat the defining identity of a saffron laboratory. The state politics has been seen through the Hindu-Muslim prism. The communal polarisation has stayed a constant in the state politics for one and a half decades. Ghosts of Godhra weren't given decisive burials. Past suited the politics. The BJP harvested rich electoral  crop.

But Modi moved to New Delhi from Ahmedabad in 2014 to take up a larger responsibilities. Demography too changed. About 52 per cent of the total electorate in Gujarat is stated to be youth. That the youth lives less in the past being more embedded in future is arguably a least contested fact. So, Modi uttered Pakistan word on penultimate day of electioneering. That Kapil Sibal sought Supreme Court adjudication of the Ayodhya Ramjanmbhoomi case's postponement till after 2019 Lok Sabha elections seemingly failed to flare up Gujarati tempers. That a lesser known Congress man demanded an apology from Modi at Babri mosque for Gujarat riots also came as whimper. Demography indeed was dictating the electioneering. And, hence, Modi had to assertively claim that his development credentials had beneficiaries in the poor of the state and not the Ambanis and Tatas.

Chintu Patel was a curious onlooker at a jamboree of Patidars in 2015 in support of reservations for the land owning Patel caste. He empathized with Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Hardik Patel. His daughter had secured 85 per cent marks. yet, she didn't get admission in an MBBS course in a medical college. "Her friend had 75 per cent marks, but she got into an MBBS course," Patel rued, saying he favoured scrapping of reservation policy in the country. If Modi is so decisive, why doesn't he scrap this quota, he asked. He's a Kadawa Patel.

"My forefathers were workers in mills in Ahmedabad. They all were shut long back. They resided inside Ahmedabad. Afterwards, they had to move out of Ahmedabad and live on the margins of the city. Lakhs of Kadawa Patels now are out of the city. Many of them are still fighting to claim their providend funds and gratuity," Patel stated.

Unlike Leva Patels, who have emigrated in a great number to the US and other countries, Kadavas are apparently finding in Hardik's campaign for reservation. Patel says, he would vote against the BJP to teach a lesson to Modi and Amit Shah.

AGRAVAT Raj is in his 20s. I had to come to Ahmedabad because my wife is pursuing masters in computer science, he said, while adding in same breath that it was a love marriage for him. "I was working in Rajkot at a salary of Rs 12000. On Facebook, my wife sent a friend's request. In a span of a few months, we were in love. Her father didn't agree. But mother of his muse was alarmed that any violence against him could harm her son and daughter pursuing MBBS courses," Raj Said. He added that her mother-in-law advised him to elope with her daughter. Thus, they got married.

In Ahmedabad, Raj found that there was no job of more than Rs 6,000 a month salary. "It was

Tobacco cultivation in Anand district

worthless to do such a job," he said. Raj, thus, become an Ola cab driver.  After working for more than 14 hours a day, he has Rs 1100 net earnings. "No job can give me Rs 35000 a month. So, I'm now an Ola driver," Raj added.

The young driver said that he would vote for Modi. "You see this Sabarmati riverfront. It was a nullah full of garbage. There used to be long hours of traffic jams. No, we can zip through within minutes. We can earn more. Modi made this happen. I've to work hard to buy more cars which I can give to other drivers. There is no alternative than to work hard," Raj quipped. He hails from an OBC, and is an avowed Modi admirer. 

In between Chintu Patel and Agravat Raj, Gujarat has seemingly moved beyond the simmering embers of Godhra. 

Yet, the electoral verdict is incumbent upon a well oiled organisational machinery. The BJP may well just be far ahead of its rivals. 

Narendra Modi: Messiah mirage

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is piqued that his government is not yet hailed as messiah of the poor. That the poor have availed benefits of Rs 1400 crores so far from just two schemes of accidental and life insurance should have led to any other government hailed as a messiah, but not his, lamented Modi recently. Exuberant tone and tenor of Modi of the past is indeed betraying whining signs with 2019 date with people approaching quick enough.

INDIAN economy in the last quarter clocked a 6.3 per cent growth. It was on the back of 5.7 per cent shocker of the first quarter of the current fiscal. Within minutes of flash of the number, the Modi Cabinet dawned in full force to force awaken people about the dream run of the economy under the leadership of the Prime Minister.  There is no break from the pattern. 

National gloom arguably in the last years of the Manmohan Singh led government had been also on account of the economy ebbing, with last growth number registering 4.7 per cent. A few months in power, a prescient Modi government had revised the GDP calculation method in the fag end of 2014. That helped the last UPA growth number swell from 4.7 per cent to 6.5 per cent. If we just forget the prescient revision of norms, the last GDP growth number would come to about 4.5 per cent, which would be lower than the worst of the UPA's. About four and a half years ago, the reason for national gloom is now indeed a cause for national celebrations if the spin doctors of the Modi dispensation are to be believed.

"More than 15 crore poor have benefited from just two schemes of the government, which insure life and accident for 90 paisa a day and Rs 1 a month contributions. The poor have benefited with Rs 1400 crores so far. If any other government had done so much, it would have been hailed as a messiah," Modi gushed at the HT Leadership summit recently.

The media certainly seems at fault to have missed out from hailing Modi as a messiah ! This is the way the BJP looks at the media, that it should blow trumpet and sing paean. But that will be too much for asking, as contemporary history bears an undeniable proof.

Modi had cashed in on the aspirational dreams of the poor to break free from their existing conditions. He sought to pursue Make in India and Skill India with vigour. Both have gone adrift on a high sea now. If dream jobs were not created by the industrialists following the command of Modi, he sought to smoke out the rats sitting on mounds of black money. Demonetisation was unveiled. The Modi managers argue that demonetisation helped informal economy become formal. And, thus, all talks of job loss are hogwash.

"I have a report of the CMIE (Centre for monitoring Indian economy). I can bet you on your claims of job loss," PM's Economic Advisory Council (PM-EAC) chairman Bibek Debroy had blurted out when asked after the first meeting of the panel on concerns of employment loss in the country due to demonetisation. The CMIE within a month came up with its latest data, stating that 15 lakh people lost jobs in immediate months after demonetisation. The NSSO (National Sample Survey Organisation) data would come in after a long time to give an actual picture of employment. Since then the PM-EAC has held two more meetings, but Debroy has not yet come out to face the media. He obviously lost the bet hands down.

FORMER Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha, who is wrecker-in-chief of dream world of Modi

government, argues that the only way to find the extent of damage done to the economy on account of demonetisation is to look at anecdotal data in the absence of NSSO statistics. "Post-demonetisation, the small and medium enterprises in the unorganised sector bore the brunt of demonetisation. Those who lost jobs went back to their villages. That becomes evident from the Modi government making additional provision of Rs 11,000 crore under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). Since the MGNREGS is an employment avenue of the last resort, it 's evident that there had been extensive job loss," Sinha told this blogger.

By all accounts, the Modi government in its tenure will not be touching eight per cent GDP growth. Economists agree that India needs to grow at eight per cent growth for 21 years in a row to lift its people out of poverty. By forcing India to a six-seven per cent growth path, Modi has arguably condemned the poor to remain poorer for far long time.   

There's, indeed, reason for Modi not yet been declared a messiah.

Rahul Gandhi makeover: Shine in Rahul's shadow

Bhukh hai to sabra kar, roti nahi to kya hua,

Aajkal Dilli mein hai zere bahas e mudda -- Dushyant Kumar.

CONGRESS vice president Rahul Gandhi suddenly discovered Dushyant Kumar. This claim may be in the realm of suspicion. More apt would be to say that Rahul began dishing out couplets of Dushyant Kumar from his book of Ghazal Saaye mein Dhoop. Rahul, who had been struggling to find a coherent narrative, began hitting headlines by borrowing from the pathos in couplets of Dushyant Kumar.

Dushyant Kumar is hailed as Mirza Ghalib of Hindi. He himself had been a self proclaimed admirer of Ghalib. He admits that he did not have even the hundredth of the talent of Ghalib. Yet, he notes that his pains are no less than that of Ghalib, which made the Urdu poet an immortal for those who feel their hearts beating.

"I don't believe that my pain is less than Ghalib's, or I felt them with lesser passion. It may be possible that each may have such false notion concerning his or her feelings. But history is testimony to all my pains," Dushyant Kumar writes in the introduction to "Saaye mein Dhoop". 

Dushyant Kumar had been a favourite for speakers in 80's and 90's, who sought to make an impact with their audiences. Sometimes, it did not matter whether the couplets of Dushyant Kumar related to the topic at hand. But, it had been fashionable to recall a few couplets with flair to convince the audiences of speaker's depth in literature. 

Kahan to tay tha chiragan harek ghar ke liye,

kahan chirag mayassar nahi shahar ke liye;

yahan darakhton ke saaye me dhoop lagati hai,

chalo yahan se chalen aur umra bhar ke liye.

Above couplets came out in all flair from a senior IPS officer in 90's, while speaking at an annual function of a local club. Dushyant Kumar's yearnings to run away from the pathos had no relevance with the topic of the evening. Yet, the couplets gave depth to his speech, with all clapping and admiration coming in plenty.

Rahul has dished out many other couplets from "Saaye mein Dhoop" with high stake Gujarat

Assembly elections playing out at a time when he's set on the path to take the baton from his mother Sonia Gandhi for the leadership of the party.  Indeed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the source of pathos for the couplets dished out by the Gandhi scion.

Within the BJP, Modi detractors have seemingly refreshed their memories of the lines of "Saaye mein Dhoop". Ab kisi ko bhi nazar aati nahi darar, ghar ki har deewar par chipke haen itne ishthaar came handy for Shatrughan Sinha when he sought to lash out at Modi and his "council of sycophants" while speaking in the company of Sitaram Yechury, Sharad Yadav, Ali Anwar, D Raja and others.  

THIS blogger, while mapping the political journey of Rahul, had previously termed him a submarine politician. That adrenaline shoots in his veins in the times of elections followed by long phase of hibernation in cooler chimes had indeed been Rahul's imprints on Indian politics. His arguably incoherent articulation of issues critical to a large number of people had been well documented. He once believed that escape velocity would be required for the people to break off from poverty; or, that power had been poison; or, the Indo-US nuclear deal had been critical to light the bulbs in the huts of Kalawati to ensure her daughters went to schools. His intellectual imprints on India's socio-political canvas have surely left fodder for analysis. 

Now that Rahul is diving into the Dushyant Kumar's treasure, it would indeed be key to find if he has begun connecting with the people. Himachal Pradesh is currently one of the few states being ruled by the Congress. Barring Karnataka and Punjab, the Congress could hardly count any other big states in its kitty. Thus, it must have been incumbent upon Rahul to defend Himachal Pradesh fiercely from the BJP chief Amit Shah, who is seeking a literal translation of Congress mukt Bharat.      

But the Gandhi scion could spare just one day to address three rallies in the hilly state where the octogenarian Veerbhadra Singh was left to fend with himself against the combined might of Modi-Shah, besides open rebellion from within the party ranks. 

Women in Kangra advising Rahul to work on his communication skills

On the campaign trail, this blogger sought out from the locals in the state if they missed Rahul at a time when they had to make the crucial decision to choose party/candidate to vote for. From Kangra to Palampur, from Hamirpur to Dharamshala, the common refrain was that the locals did not miss Rahul in their states. Some had suggestions for Rahul, that he should cease to be in a hurry to explain an issue. He should connect with the people; he seems to be in a great hurry; he's angry most of the times without explaining hos source of anger, opined a section of voters in Himachal Pradesh, which also included a few who hailed from the local Congress units.

"Rahul seems angry all the times. But we don't understand reasons for his anger. He should explain with little more leisure. He needs to improve his communication skills," Ritu Dadhwal (In pix) told this blogger in Jwalamukhi in Kangra district of Himachal Pradesh, 

Dushyant Kumar is a literary delight. His pathos survives. But Rahul may need to go beyond quoting from  "Saaye mein Dhoop".

Bullet train: Leap of faith

That the 508-km long Ahmedabad-Mumbai high speed train, which is loosely called a bullet train,  will give a negative political dividend to Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a certainty. Yet, this may be the only saving grace for the listless Modi administration on economic fronts in over three years in the office. The cost at Rs 1.10 lakh crore is jaw-dropping, but the spin-offs in a few decades will offset all the financial pain.

THE French Rail Corporation (SNC) in the business viability report had unequivocally stated that a

Shinkansen bullet train

standalone Ahmedabad-Mumbai high speed rail corridor with speed in access of 350 kmph will have to be funded by the government. That it will not make profits for years is certain, which will keep the private investment away, the report submitted to the Ministry of Railways noted, while adding that the world over such endevour has been publicly funded.

Not that the Ahmedabad-Mumbai high speed rail could ever be profitable, the report had stated, and for such a scenario to emerge the Railways would need to spread a garland of inter-connected semi-high speed rail lines to help flow strong traffic. Such garland will surely take a few decades more to become a reality.  The SNC report had set the chill in the Ministry of Railways. The enthusiasm for the ambitious project had been dulled.

Japan is battling deflation. The population is aging. The manufacturing capacity there is in access of local and offshore demands. The capital is equally in access. The Japanese industries have to set up shops abroad to stay afloat. The idle Japanese capital needs avenues to sink in and make money. That China has cheap labour with population still younger along with manufacturing base at a scale which still awes the world long put Japan in quandary. 

But India and Japan are bound by historical bond of culture, besides absence of even an iota of animosity. Indeed, the high speed rail corridor project had been lying idle since the time of the UPA headed by Manmohan Singh. The first definitive agreement between the two nations had also been inked during the times of Singh. Yet, the Congress which swore by Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) to win polls and trumpet its brand of politics could never believe in the capital intensive high speed rail corridor. The Congress knew well, the bullet train will hit with bullet speed in damaging the vote base. 

In contrast, Modi believes that the bullet train will help him get votes. And, he's not wrong either. 

THE state of economy since 2011 had slipped into a self-limiting warp. The appetite for private investment had been doused. The sword of fiscal deficit launched P Chidambaram and Arun Jaitely

afterwards into obsession for expenditure squeeze. The economy cried for a spark. This is vintage Modi, the Narendra Modi of Gujarat, that has been unveiled by the ground breaking ceremony of the high speed rail corridor project. Modi, the man who could execute expansion of Sardar Sarovar Project which lifts the flow of Narmada river by not less than 25 floor high building in a course of a few Kilometers, is promising to rediscover himself at a time when his government has to bat out the last few over in which he has to score unbelievably large runs.

Undeniably, the faith of rail travellers in the railways has been left shaken due to spare of mishaps in the last two years. Every train journey now looks suspect. Suresh Prabhu, who had been Minister for Railways for almost three years, though of taking up new projects -- new lines, capacity augmentation and fresh products. He forgot that the Kakodkar Committee in its report long back had cried for immediate modernization of at least 19,000 kms of rail tracks. No surprise, that derailments of trains constitute more than 50 per cent of the rail mishaps, which in turn most likely take place due to poor conditions of tracks. Prabhu forgot his basic mandate and lost the job.

In speed, the Railways has traveled least in the last four and a half decades. Premier trains of today -- Rajdhanis -- were launched in 1969. The inaugural Mumbai-Thane had run at a speed of 30 kmph. The average speed of the passenger trains now is just 60 kmph. The goods trains travel at much slower speed. Thus, the Railways could never gain the confidence, capacity and capability (3Cs) to break free from the status quo.   

THE Ahmedabad-Mumbai high speed rail corridor will give the Indian railways the 3Cs to give the mobility solution to more than one billion people of the country. That hundreds of high ranking railway officials have already gone leadership training is already part of the India-Japan story. The upcoming high speed rail institute in Gandhinagar should be giving India not one but hundreds of E Sreedharan. The 3Cs will help Indian Railways to compete with China for rail projects in South-east Asia and Africa is another in-built sub-text of the story. That IRCON has already executed a few of the long route rail projects in South-east Asia is well known. 

Indian economy in the short term will gain from the pump-priming effect, as Rs 80,000 crores of the total project cost would be spent within the country on civil and associated works, which will generate demands for steel, cement, labour. Unlike the Dadri-JNPT dedicated freight corridor, Indian companies could also be the lead partner for bidding the civil works. Besides, the strong mandate for Make in India will hasten technology transfer in running high speed trains which over the years will have its own spill over effect.

Japan is sinking in Rs 88,000 crores in the Ahmedabad-Mumbail high speed rail corridor. This money is going into a standalone project and it was not available for the existing demands of the Indian Railways. The Ministry of railways will roughly contribute about Rs 20,000 crores in the course of next six years. 

That the money in parts will be returned to Japan beginning 15 years later at an interest of 0.1 per cent was the most low-lying fruit that Modi had to pluck to give the spark to the economy with just about 16 months to go for him to seek votes again.