Missing E-factor

THREE months have gone by since the new government was elected with an unprecedented mandate in the recent years. World's largest democracy, arguably, also has the most costliest electoral exercise. Actual spending is seen dwarfing the official ceiling on expenses by candidates. The first three months after the 2009 and 2014 had shown economy spurting seemingly on the back of asteroid doses of the largess splurged by political parties in the length and breadth of the country. Yet, 2019 strikes a discordant note.

Dismissing a strategy meeting weeks ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP chief Amit Shah was seemingly exasperated. To a question on going big on media blitzkrieg, Shah blurted out to a fellow party leaders -- "First, let Arun ji and Piyush settle their quarrel".  

In the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, all knew that the contest would be unequal. Not that the BJP had the greatest of the poll mascot, but for the fact that others had hugely depleted coffers. Loss of key states had, arguably, bled the Congress treasury white. Regional parties weren't better off. The BJP treasury, however, was in its prime pink. It was evidently clear that one political outfit would take the pole position in election spending to swing the outcome of the poll. Others will be bystanders.

The BJP, thus, was deliberating "how and where" to unloosen the fat purse. "Arun Jaitley was firm that the party should give more money in the hands of the block and district level functionaries. Piyush Goyal argued that the BJP should spend more on media blitzkrieg. There was no common ground," said a functionary, who attended such strategy meetings at the BJP headquarters.

Jaitley had been ailing. He seemed fragile. His muscles had loosened. Yet, he stayed put at the BJP headquarters to man his mandate -- strategizing and perception management. "The BJP spent 42 per cent less on media advertisements in 2014 Lok Sabha elections in comparison to 2009 general polls. Jaitley's prescription was accepted, that more funds would go in the hands of foot soldiers of the party across the country than being spent on media and other publicity platforms," added the functionary.   

That media is currently bleeding in an affirmation to the changed tack of the political outfit with the most bloated moneybag. 

THE 2008-09 financial year was one of the worst for Indian economy. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had slumped to 3.09 per cent on 2011-12 baseline (6.72 per cent under the 2004-05 baseline). The Manmohan Singh led UPA had retained power at the Centre. The Congress ruled in a large number of states. The Congress coffer must have been spilling over the brim. The money was well spent by the party. The 2009-10 fiscal clocked 7.86 per cent GDP growth as per the 2011-12 baseline (8.59 under the 2004-05 series).

Electioneering splurge had seemingly knocked off the slowdown fangs to release adrenaline in the lifeline of the economy. The story re-ran the script in 2014 also with much greater intensity. The first quarter clocked GDP growth of 8.02 per cent under the revised 2011-12 series only to ascend steeply to 8.70 per cent in the second quarter, mapping the first three months after the election results. 

The first quarter of the 2019-20 fiscal delivered a fiver for the GDP growth. Five per cent for India is by all accounts a commentary of the economy in the worst health. The first three months of the Narendra Modi government in the second tenure would report the second quarterly growth. That the economy is gasping for breath is affirmed indisputably with the government finally waking up to the deep structural reforms covered by disinvestment.    

Dissonance between electioneering largess in the form of arming foot soldiers with party funds and the economy crying erosion of demand is palpable.

The BJP and allies, indeed, put the money in the pockets of the foot soldiers. But the money didn't spread out as intended to a significant extent. The BJP workers are full of tales about their peers pocketing the money but not passing on to the targets. They did so, because they were confident that victory in the elections was already on their side. That they became thrift with the large flow of money in their hands was also on account that Modi was winning them elections. 

THE money in place of being in circulation got stuck. And that possibly explains the missing E-factor of the economy. Electioneering splurge too failed to wake up the animal spirits of demands. That the printing of high denomination Rs 2000 currency is no more being printed could also be an after-effect of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The government in an RTI reply has admitted that the Rs 2000 currency hasn't been printed yet in the current financial year. The ATMs running dry in elections times has been pos-2017 phenomenon. Did the availability of Rs 2000 notes help push the cash flow to the electoral agents who in turn sat over the pile of cash to unleash demand depression in the economy? Circumstantial evidences suggest a fair correlation.

Mahatma Gandhi: Talismanic hypocrisy

Albert Einstein was most prophetic in his one-liner tribute to Mahatma Gandhi. Generations to come will scarce believe that such a one as this ever in flesh and blood walked upon this earth, Einstein had to say on Gandhi. Seventy one years after Gandhi departed, it's indeed a tall order to believe that such a soul led India's greatest ever political movement, with the velvet touch of empathy and simplicity. That within a few decades his political heirs sanctified Gandhi and turned him into oratorical rituals to spread tentacles of the Gandhian anti-thesis is, indubitably, India's monstrous hypocrisy.  

There's a certain deluge of commentary on Mahatma Gandhi. That India's commemorating the 150th birth anniversary of the icon befits the occasion. That the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is in the midst of a process to attain lethal perfection in politics of mass mobilisation makes Gandhi the most convenient icon to bank on. And also for the fact that transportation of a ritual deity to the centre stage of the political discourse perfectly suits the dispensation which seeks to send dynastic demigods into oblivion.

The Mahatma plunged in the Indian freedom movement at a stage when the polity was fragmented. There were scores of streams within the polity and outside against the British rule. Millions of people died of hunger and epidemics. The British lords stayed enmeshed in crony capitalism. Sporadic reprisals amidst episodic bravery marked India's restlessness to throw the foreign yokes. Gandhi weaved magical spell to spearhead a coherent political agitation under the banner of the Congress. Rest is history.

Gandhi has been largely depicted by historians as the man with Midas touch for mass movements. He deftly sought definitive behavioural changes from the masses. He stayed away from power. Yet, he served a talisman to the new elites taking positions of power lest they lost their ways to wilderness.

"I will give you a talisman. Whenever you're in doubt, or when the self becomes too much with you, apply the following test -- Recall the face of the poorest and the weakest man whom you may have seen, and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him. Will he gain anything by it? Will it restore him to a control over his own life and destiny? In other words, will it lead to Swaraj (freedom) for the hungry and spiritually starving millions? Then you will find your doubts and your self melt away," Gandhi read out the moral political mantra to his ardent disciples when they assumed high offices.

The mantra arguably electrified the political class for the first two decades. Afterward, memory of the poorest and weakest started becoming fainter. The convenient escape route for the political class from the moral stigma of failing the Gandhian test was to pass the onus to the children. The Gandhian talisman found its resting place with the NCERT books.

In another one decade, the self in place of melting away was cast in stone for the leading lights of Indian politics, the principal instrument to free the spiritually starving millions. The Congress turned dynastic. Indian polity went into a meltdown. The after effects in the next two decades coalesced into caste based family enterprises. The Gandhian talisman was knocked off of its moral anchor.

The Mahatma practically became distant for the political class. His name didn't fetch votes. In place, Bhim Rao Ambedkar, Ram Manohar Lohiya, Karpoori Thakur, E V Ramasami (Periyar) and a few others became potent political icons who helped their worshipers fetch votes in truck loads.     

The Gandhian talisman proved a burden for the policy makers. The poorest and weakest were seen roadblocks to India's "earnest desire to become a developed country like the US". So, ways were (and are being) invented to chase them away from forests, islands, farms to herd the teeming millions into ghettos. The sub-human ghettos proved huge political investments for heirs of Gandhi.

Two-third of the population stays dependent on agriculture. Vast majority of the political class is land owning "agriculturists" after the residual generations of leaders educated professionals were edged out by their anti-thesis. To protect their own interests and milk government doles, the new political class pushed farmers to a never ending poverty. 

For Gandhi, Swaraj meant the economic self-sufficiency in such a manner that majority of the needs of the people could be served by enterprises within their surroundings. Now, most of the needs of the people are served by enterprises in China.   

The Gandhian talisman by all accounts has been stripped off all the moral and ethical weights. 

The ruling elites when they swear by Gandhi, and they do it more often, invite being condemned as bunch of hypocrites. The hypocrisy, sadly, has now acquired monstrous proportions.       

Public path for economy

Indian economy by all accounts has entered self-limiting bind. That the specter of slowdown is looming with cascading effect on unemployment is sharply visible. Economy isn't panting for breath all of a sudden. That the journey down the hill began from policy mishaps since 2008 is told to death. The Narendra Modi government took to "curing" ills of the economy with a number of eventful interventions, which had mighty side effects. Now, the Modi government must look inwardly to kick-start engines of the economy. 

THE North block mandarins are searching for clues to steer economy to eight per cent GDP growth trajectory. Flurry of outreach has come on the back of the growth knocking five per cent figure in the last quarter of the current fiscal. Essentially, the North Block policy wizards are asking for clues from those who're tired and fatigued, largely on account of excesses of the government. Nirmala Sitharaman and Anurag Thakur, ministers with principal mandate to steady the economy, with bureaucrats in tow, should, therefore, stay put in their respective holes and indulge in genuine economic crisis-management. 

The golden decade of the economic growth (1999-2009) was left on auto-pilot mode somewhere along the journey. The golden touch of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his aides spurted the economy to glorious highs. The mantra was simple -- structural reforms along with aggressive disinvestment programme to spur the consumption demands, which in turn put industries on expansionist path. The Congress, true to its nature of a status quoist outfit, led the UPA, with Left parties keeping hawks' eye in the first term, squandered the opportunity offered by the firm ground work done by the Vajpayee government. The second term of the Manmohan Singh government was comatose.

The Modi government should revisit the Vajpayee mantra. Besides structural reforms and aggressive disinvestment programme, Modi should work with state governments to not just fix economy's self-limiting glitches, but also lay ground for the next golden decade of growth.

Barring western and a few southern regions, finances of majority of the states  are in shambles. They are barely surviving, struggling to pay salaries and pensions to their employees. Their scopes of fiscal expansions are limited. Consequently, law and order, education and health have, arguably, taken sever blows in such states.

The Centre should work with states to fix their finances and work within a timeline to expand fiscal strength by 50 per cent with the help of disinvestment programme. The enhanced fiscal capacity must be put to work to spurt the economy. 

United Nations mandate 222 police personnel for 1,00,000 population. If all the police vacancies in India are filled, the country would come to the ratio of 185 per lakh population. 

Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odishra, Andhra Pradesh are among the states with police-population ratio in 65-123 range. The police personnel are overworked and stressed. Various police reform recommendations are gathering dusts. That the decades' old weaponry of the state police requires immediate overhauling needs no further arguments. 

One year timeline to fill all police vacancies in states could add muscles to the consumption demands.

Ironically, public employment was turned into a policy curse at a time when India under the instructions of IMF (International Monetary Fund) charted on the path of reforms in early 1990s under the stewardship of P V Narsimha Rao and Manmohan Singh.  This has outlived its utility. Public employments essential to meet basic norms must be revived. 

A developing nation can leave education and health infrastructure space to individual enterprises at its own peril. A large number of states have taken recourse to recruiting contractual teachers, with some of them even sub-letting such employments. That the education sector should firmly remain in the public funded domain is, indeed, basic requirement for a developing nation. And, hence, the expanded fiscal strength of states should fuel expansion of teachers' strength along with expanded schools' networks. 

Additionally, Panchayati Raj unveiled in 1980s has become infested with unbridled corruption, exhibited by SUV riding Sarpanch and local bodies' representatives. Institutionalizing, financial and performance audits by Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) is crying need of the hour. This along with institutional capacity building of local bodies, with men and machines, could put India on the path of faster and sustainable growth pedestal. 

The three booster doses would require financial infusions of high scales beyond fiscal capacities of state governments. Here, the Centre should deploy resources gained from aggressive disinvestment programme to fund the public employment and curing fiscal health of states. 

But the Centre, sadly, has no institutional framework currently to work with state governments to guide them to sound fiscal health. NITI Aayog is beset with policy dwarfs to rise to the occasion. This gaping hole in sound fiscal policy architecture is, indeed, worrisome.  

The Modi government has sought to pump prime the economy with infrastructure spending in the first term. The public employment to meet basic minimum strength in various spheres could give fresh legs to the economy for the next decade. This could be the lasting legacy of the Modi government in the second term.

MIGHTY DISGRACE

Indian Constitution has failed over 100 children in Bihar who died for want of timely medical support. Indian democracy has ruefully demonstrated that it's a system of unaccountable governance. National silence, by and large, over deaths of children has affirmed the worst fears that apathy for poor has grown by leaps and bounds. Naked medical infrastructure in Bihar, which mirrors other states as well, is a warning to all -- citizens of the country are facing a ticking time bomb in imploding health infrastructure. Extent of undernourishment among children is a hard slap on faces of policy makers who have for years written papers on socio-economic planning of the country.        

Till the last count, more than 100 children have died at one hospital in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, in a span of about a fortnight. Thick-skinned say, it's an old story, that a mystery illness kills children during the peak summer in parts of Bihar. For years, health babus have called it acute encephalitis; some even ventured to attribute deaths to toxins released by unripe Litchi. Indian Parliament found mention of the deaths, but for maligning Litchi, which is causing hardship to growers. For politicians, deaths may be mystery. But stunted policies over the years had arguably foretold these deaths.

Guess works of medical fraternity converge largely on undernourishment and lack of sanitation as principal culprits. That 44 per cent of children in Bihar are underweight lends credence to the assessments of health professionals. Spectre of filth in Bihar indeed makes the state sitting on pile of garbage. None could, thus, dispute general diagnosis that undernourishment and filth are killing the children.

But National Food Security Act (NFSA) has also completed six years in existence, guaranteeing 25 kgs of foodgrains to each family almost free. The government has been pouring over Rs 1.25 lakh crore every year, principally for the reason that the poor shouldn't suffer from undernourishment and hunger. Bihar is a state, which has been aggressively implementing the mother of all welfare programme. The obvious rationale to pump in over Rs 1.25 lakh crore each year in running the Soviet era public food distribution programme is only to fight undernourishment. Underneath, however, the programme fattens embedded vested interests, who suck the lifeblood of the country, because the political class has no spine to tell that India must stop the political business of a state funded agriculture where only few pocket gains that too in just four to five states.

Thick-skinned Bihar politicians additionally, have bared delusion that the political change in the state was just facile that only the faces changed. The dark age of 1990s had ceded the state seemingly to light at the end of the tunnel in 2005 in the state. White clad thugs hid their guns and only chanted the mantra of their castes day and night in the changed political theater of the state.  

Gargantuan corruption in Panchayat and Local Bodies, the third tier of democracy, has shown an insatiable appetite for wealth. Public service, indeed, is least of their priority. That the former Union Minister Jairam Ramesh was awestruck at jewel laden 'Sarpanch and Mukhiya' at Vigyan Bhavan and former Bihar chief minister Lalu Prasad at the scale of SUVs lined up on Tughlaq Road in 2012 when he called meeting of such persons had bared that unbridled corruption rules at the Panchayati Raj, which was thought to be government's channel of delivery of services to people.    

NITI Aayog is the new czar of policy making in India. Bereft of genuine talent pool from socio-economic space, the policy think tank has shown masterly hunger for private resources to deal with India's critical issues. It seeks privatisation. Heir to Planning Commission, a few of the interventions of NITI Aayog have shown that it essentially seeks quick fix solutions. And, one such stroke of genius to deal with crippling health infrastructure was Ayushman Bharat -- Rs five lakh medical insurance plan for 10 lakh people in the country. 

Heavy stroke of the scheme, amplified politically, sought to to put up a facade on a dilapidated health infrastructure. It was projected as a panacea for the health needs of millions. The Centre for past two years put all efforts to popularise the scheme. That AIIMS in Patna, Bihar, and others too in various state capitals remain works progressing at snail's pace failed attention of the political leadership. That the country is acutely short of qualified doctors failed the attention of the political masters of the country. That upgradation of district hospitals has been crying needs for decades fell on deaf ears. 

Policy thrusts, indeed, was to look for solutions from within private hospitals. After education majorly slipping into the private hands, health by all accounts is firmly in grips of private enterprises. And, that profiteering is the only indisputable mantra of private enterprises suggests that the political masters have thrown the public health to the wolves. 

Bihar deaths are just warning. The poor have fallen first. Others too will be in the queue.