Assembly elections: Identity slingshot

Democracy by all accounts is India's greatest sociopolitical leveler. Electorate in Maharashtra and Haryana reassured all that India isn't on a course to turn into a ruthless one party politico-administrative Chinese system. That people have least appetite for vindictive politics has also been loudly told. Drum beating and cult worship aren't essentially preferences of the Indian electorate. The popular verdict in Maharashtra and Haryana is laced with clear message for the Opposition -- Believe in your strengths.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would stay in power in Maharashtra and Haryana. Yet, the outfit isn't exultant. Faces of party leaders turned long, after the full import of the verdict in the two states became clear. It evidently dawned upon BJP leaders that the party cannot dictate the agenda to the people. Democracy is all about the vice versa -- people dictating agenda to parties. 

The BJP essentially drummed being the sole custodian of the spirit of nationalism. Dissenting voices on even procedural matters were hurriedly branded anti-national. Leading voices of the BJP displayed penchant to ask for certificate of nationalism from Opposition leaders. The BJP campaign was all about commanding electorate to cast their votes to party's nominees since rivals had suspect nationalistic credentials. 

The electorate had grown bored of nationalism shrill. The neighbourhood shops weren't selling enough goods. Youth came home after losing contractual jobs. Farmers still sold produces at one tenths of the market prices. Elders watched over the idling youth spend days and nights staring at mobile phone screens with earplugs stuck in perennial entertainment trance. 

Economy has fallen flat. Spin doctors seek succor in food delivery boys running around. A few start ups create "Wows". Policy mandarins in Narendra Modi dispensation talk like business honchos. For them, India is all about a few metropolitan cities. The BJP has to bear the slingshot pain.

Victories mostly sober politicians. V P Singh hadn't sent Rajiv Gandhi to Tihar jail after the 1989 win. Atal Bihari Vajpayee also hadn't shown cells of Tihar jail to the Opposition leaders. But the 2019 Lok Sabha verdict opened the floodgate of vindictive politics. The pack of enforcement directorate (ED), CBI and others were sent on hunting grounds against Opposition leaders. Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar talked ED in his whirlwind rallies, and people said enough is enough. Same goes for Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Dushyant Choutala in Haryana. 

Identity politics has demonstratively made a strong comeback in Indian politics. The Lok Sabha verdict had spurred obituaries for identity politics. Politics in regions identified with dominant castes. Smaller castes rode piggyback to partake in the game of power. The BJP's poll mascot Narendra Modi sought to challenge this set political template. The party worked for consolidation of other castes. The ploy paid rich electoral dividends. It turned the political social engineering of a number of regional outfits on its head. But that worked when national narrative found resonance with the electorate. 

Tangible gains with welfarism push had cheered the vulnerable. Dominant castes, though, had nothing to gain from Modinomics, which is nothing but targetted delivery of subsidies. They became aware that they are staring at the prospects of a lost decade, with wealth being knocked away and income drying. Dominant castes sought to regain the lost political space. The BJP, indeed, co-opted them. But they were slotted to supporting roles. They, however, sought centrestage.  

The Congress stays in defeatist mode. The grand old party of India is yet to come to terms with the political erosion of the clout of the Gandhi family. With Sonia Gandhi back in the saddle, the reigns in regions are slowly being restored to old warhorses. That has been the Congress' political character. But that was also sought to be undone by the Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi. The Maharashtra and Haryana poll verdict makes it evident that the electorate want the Opposition to believe in their strengths and shun their doubting Thomases.

Jats in Haryana and Maratha in Maharashtra backed their trusted parties to the hilt. They have sent signals to Yadavs in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to flock to caste outfits in the two states. The economic slide may loosen smaller castes from the BJP glue. And that could open up the prospects for revival of regional outfits. 

Missing E-factor

THREE months have gone by since the new government was elected with an unprecedented mandate in the recent years. World's largest democracy, arguably, also has the most costliest electoral exercise. Actual spending is seen dwarfing the official ceiling on expenses by candidates. The first three months after the 2009 and 2014 had shown economy spurting seemingly on the back of asteroid doses of the largess splurged by political parties in the length and breadth of the country. Yet, 2019 strikes a discordant note.

Dismissing a strategy meeting weeks ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP chief Amit Shah was seemingly exasperated. To a question on going big on media blitzkrieg, Shah blurted out to a fellow party leaders -- "First, let Arun ji and Piyush settle their quarrel".  

In the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, all knew that the contest would be unequal. Not that the BJP had the greatest of the poll mascot, but for the fact that others had hugely depleted coffers. Loss of key states had, arguably, bled the Congress treasury white. Regional parties weren't better off. The BJP treasury, however, was in its prime pink. It was evidently clear that one political outfit would take the pole position in election spending to swing the outcome of the poll. Others will be bystanders.

The BJP, thus, was deliberating "how and where" to unloosen the fat purse. "Arun Jaitley was firm that the party should give more money in the hands of the block and district level functionaries. Piyush Goyal argued that the BJP should spend more on media blitzkrieg. There was no common ground," said a functionary, who attended such strategy meetings at the BJP headquarters.

Jaitley had been ailing. He seemed fragile. His muscles had loosened. Yet, he stayed put at the BJP headquarters to man his mandate -- strategizing and perception management. "The BJP spent 42 per cent less on media advertisements in 2014 Lok Sabha elections in comparison to 2009 general polls. Jaitley's prescription was accepted, that more funds would go in the hands of foot soldiers of the party across the country than being spent on media and other publicity platforms," added the functionary.   

That media is currently bleeding in an affirmation to the changed tack of the political outfit with the most bloated moneybag. 

THE 2008-09 financial year was one of the worst for Indian economy. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had slumped to 3.09 per cent on 2011-12 baseline (6.72 per cent under the 2004-05 baseline). The Manmohan Singh led UPA had retained power at the Centre. The Congress ruled in a large number of states. The Congress coffer must have been spilling over the brim. The money was well spent by the party. The 2009-10 fiscal clocked 7.86 per cent GDP growth as per the 2011-12 baseline (8.59 under the 2004-05 series).

Electioneering splurge had seemingly knocked off the slowdown fangs to release adrenaline in the lifeline of the economy. The story re-ran the script in 2014 also with much greater intensity. The first quarter clocked GDP growth of 8.02 per cent under the revised 2011-12 series only to ascend steeply to 8.70 per cent in the second quarter, mapping the first three months after the election results. 

The first quarter of the 2019-20 fiscal delivered a fiver for the GDP growth. Five per cent for India is by all accounts a commentary of the economy in the worst health. The first three months of the Narendra Modi government in the second tenure would report the second quarterly growth. That the economy is gasping for breath is affirmed indisputably with the government finally waking up to the deep structural reforms covered by disinvestment.    

Dissonance between electioneering largess in the form of arming foot soldiers with party funds and the economy crying erosion of demand is palpable.

The BJP and allies, indeed, put the money in the pockets of the foot soldiers. But the money didn't spread out as intended to a significant extent. The BJP workers are full of tales about their peers pocketing the money but not passing on to the targets. They did so, because they were confident that victory in the elections was already on their side. That they became thrift with the large flow of money in their hands was also on account that Modi was winning them elections. 

THE money in place of being in circulation got stuck. And that possibly explains the missing E-factor of the economy. Electioneering splurge too failed to wake up the animal spirits of demands. That the printing of high denomination Rs 2000 currency is no more being printed could also be an after-effect of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The government in an RTI reply has admitted that the Rs 2000 currency hasn't been printed yet in the current financial year. The ATMs running dry in elections times has been pos-2017 phenomenon. Did the availability of Rs 2000 notes help push the cash flow to the electoral agents who in turn sat over the pile of cash to unleash demand depression in the economy? Circumstantial evidences suggest a fair correlation.

Public path for economy

Indian economy by all accounts has entered self-limiting bind. That the specter of slowdown is looming with cascading effect on unemployment is sharply visible. Economy isn't panting for breath all of a sudden. That the journey down the hill began from policy mishaps since 2008 is told to death. The Narendra Modi government took to "curing" ills of the economy with a number of eventful interventions, which had mighty side effects. Now, the Modi government must look inwardly to kick-start engines of the economy. 

THE North block mandarins are searching for clues to steer economy to eight per cent GDP growth trajectory. Flurry of outreach has come on the back of the growth knocking five per cent figure in the last quarter of the current fiscal. Essentially, the North Block policy wizards are asking for clues from those who're tired and fatigued, largely on account of excesses of the government. Nirmala Sitharaman and Anurag Thakur, ministers with principal mandate to steady the economy, with bureaucrats in tow, should, therefore, stay put in their respective holes and indulge in genuine economic crisis-management. 

The golden decade of the economic growth (1999-2009) was left on auto-pilot mode somewhere along the journey. The golden touch of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his aides spurted the economy to glorious highs. The mantra was simple -- structural reforms along with aggressive disinvestment programme to spur the consumption demands, which in turn put industries on expansionist path. The Congress, true to its nature of a status quoist outfit, led the UPA, with Left parties keeping hawks' eye in the first term, squandered the opportunity offered by the firm ground work done by the Vajpayee government. The second term of the Manmohan Singh government was comatose.

The Modi government should revisit the Vajpayee mantra. Besides structural reforms and aggressive disinvestment programme, Modi should work with state governments to not just fix economy's self-limiting glitches, but also lay ground for the next golden decade of growth.

Barring western and a few southern regions, finances of majority of the states  are in shambles. They are barely surviving, struggling to pay salaries and pensions to their employees. Their scopes of fiscal expansions are limited. Consequently, law and order, education and health have, arguably, taken sever blows in such states.

The Centre should work with states to fix their finances and work within a timeline to expand fiscal strength by 50 per cent with the help of disinvestment programme. The enhanced fiscal capacity must be put to work to spurt the economy. 

United Nations mandate 222 police personnel for 1,00,000 population. If all the police vacancies in India are filled, the country would come to the ratio of 185 per lakh population. 

Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odishra, Andhra Pradesh are among the states with police-population ratio in 65-123 range. The police personnel are overworked and stressed. Various police reform recommendations are gathering dusts. That the decades' old weaponry of the state police requires immediate overhauling needs no further arguments. 

One year timeline to fill all police vacancies in states could add muscles to the consumption demands.

Ironically, public employment was turned into a policy curse at a time when India under the instructions of IMF (International Monetary Fund) charted on the path of reforms in early 1990s under the stewardship of P V Narsimha Rao and Manmohan Singh.  This has outlived its utility. Public employments essential to meet basic norms must be revived. 

A developing nation can leave education and health infrastructure space to individual enterprises at its own peril. A large number of states have taken recourse to recruiting contractual teachers, with some of them even sub-letting such employments. That the education sector should firmly remain in the public funded domain is, indeed, basic requirement for a developing nation. And, hence, the expanded fiscal strength of states should fuel expansion of teachers' strength along with expanded schools' networks. 

Additionally, Panchayati Raj unveiled in 1980s has become infested with unbridled corruption, exhibited by SUV riding Sarpanch and local bodies' representatives. Institutionalizing, financial and performance audits by Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) is crying need of the hour. This along with institutional capacity building of local bodies, with men and machines, could put India on the path of faster and sustainable growth pedestal. 

The three booster doses would require financial infusions of high scales beyond fiscal capacities of state governments. Here, the Centre should deploy resources gained from aggressive disinvestment programme to fund the public employment and curing fiscal health of states. 

But the Centre, sadly, has no institutional framework currently to work with state governments to guide them to sound fiscal health. NITI Aayog is beset with policy dwarfs to rise to the occasion. This gaping hole in sound fiscal policy architecture is, indeed, worrisome.  

The Modi government has sought to pump prime the economy with infrastructure spending in the first term. The public employment to meet basic minimum strength in various spheres could give fresh legs to the economy for the next decade. This could be the lasting legacy of the Modi government in the second term.