Rising spate of unemployment in India: Is Modi riding a tiger

BJP top guns are sweating hard to talk gains of demonetization. Hard-selling his book "I do what I do", Raghuram Rajan has  emerged within a few days a nemesis of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Desperation on the back of mainstream media not believing numbers thrown by government to talk achievements is sinking in fast. In three years, Modi seems high on the steroid administered by achievements on borders with China and Pakistan, but quite fragile on domestic front, with unemployment at its peak.

Anand Mahindra is arguably a straight-talking India Inc man. He is also one of a few Indian industrialists who has been expanding his businesses. But he too is not an industrialist who invests in employment intensive sector. He prefers businesses with light manpower. And, so does most of the Indian industrialists, with vision of just immediate future. Expansion of the industry and the consequent job growth happens when industrialists think long into the future with certainty of growth. 

India undeniably is caught in a time when vision is short -- ultra short.       

"In the special economic zones (SEZs) of Gujarat, most liberal labour laws are in practice backed by

world class infrastructure. yet, I've not seen industrialists taking advantage of facilities to invest in employment intensive industries," first vice-chairman of NITI Aayog Arvind Panagariya told Mahindra in a discussion with an intention to genuinely know why Indian industrialists have aversions about businesses which could trigger employment generation.

Before Mahindra could shed light of his wisdom, a senior officer, betraying a sense of resignation, stated that the ministry of labour had engaged the industry captains and sought to know from them what all changes they wanted so that they could take up businesses with employment generation. She rued that no concrete suggestion came. "We talk of labour regulations impeding on industrial growth. Yet, when asked what all regulations should go, there are no answers from the industry," the officer told Mahindra.

At last Mahindra replied, with an admission that Indian industrialists are only attempting to imitate the outsiders setting up shops in the country. "We are best following others. The foreigners are coming and setting up units in the country. We may be watching them out and follow them in the coming years," Mahindra quipped.

The Economic Survey of 2015-16 pegged unemployment at five per cent, a notch higher than previous year. Subsequently, situations have only worsened. The informal sector accounts for bulk of employment in the country. The construction sector has been the bellwether of employment. They lay battered following demonetization. The result was reflected well in the numbers, as the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) of 2017-18 slumped to 5.7 per cent. Rating agencies rushed to scale down growth projection to 7 per cent. Growing at 8 or more per cent GDP growth rate is a distant dream for at least a couple of years by all accounts.

So, what happens to employments in a country where 68 per cent of population is in working age group. Number of the working population is on an ascent only. Millions of youth are passing out from schools, colleges and institutes with prospects of job market further squeezing. That they would become employer is looking a crude joke after all the talks of Start Up India, Stand Up India turning out to be all about App and portal makers bottled in Bangalore and Hyderabad.

"We've given 80,000 jobs in various government departments in the last one year. But they youth don't remove their names from the employment exchange till they get the jobs of their choices. That explains why there is not much of change in the job data," the Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani reasoned at unemployment rising to quite high level.

The organizational secretary of Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM) Kashmiri Lal claims that the Chinese goods coming in the country account for 50 per cent of the Indian manufacturing outputs. "Chinese firms are making a clean profit of Rs 65,000 crore ($9 billion) annually, besides having a Rs 7 lakh crore trade value. If only we can replace them with our domestic manufacturing capacities, the impact on employment could be evident," Lal opined. 

But Lal will not admit that the Indian industrialists long back turned into traders of Chinese goods.

So, what happens to the promise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a rally in Agra in 2013 that if the BJP was to be voted to power 10 million jobs would be created. The BJP chief answers that

historical riddle with number-crunching from Mudra scheme. A month back, he had quipped that 7.28 crore Mudra beneficiaries have gained from the loans, which now has surpassed 8.25 crores. They're employers also, the BJP leaders would make others believe. But the Mudra beneficiaries are mostly in the semi-urban and rural areas, yet the economy hasn't got any evident shot of adrenaline for demands.

Yes, the stock market is at a record high. With banking instruments offering only an inflation neutral returns and the property option flattened, surplus money is pouring in strong stream to the Dalal Street.

With employments on freeze, Modi may well be riding a tiger.