2014: NDA or Gowdas, Gujrals?

The Manmohan Singh headed UPA government at the Centre has clearly become lameduck. The Congress is too demoralised to drop an anchor to the UPA, which appears to be a ship adrift on high sea. Except for gains in relations with Pakistan, which are also only virtual in nature, the UPA has been going on and on on policy paralysis for quite a long time to boost sentiment in any class of the people.

   

The controversy surrounding the Army and Chief of the Army Staff (CoAS) V. K. Singh is an example of the kind of indecisiveness within the UPA. A Cabinet minister from the Congress in the UPA summed up the state of affairs when he confided his view on reported bugging of the office of the Defence Minister A. K. Antony. "You bug to tap conversations not the silence," quipped the Minister. A former aide of Antony had to say that "the man does not take any action, just sits on and on". Ironically, Antony headed committee would soon give a report on the electoral losses of the Congress in the recent state Assembly elections.

 

Another Union Cabinet minister, also hailing from the Congress, in the UPA rued the fact that there was no leadership in the country. In 2009, Manmohan Singh was a leader (non-political) who ensured that the Congress led UPA was voted again into power, thanks to his image of an honest man scripting India's economic march. In 2012, the Congress does not find any leader. The Uttar Pradesh state polls verdict clipped the wings of Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who had pinned hope for a good result to leap into top echelons of national leadership. He will need another two years to undo the loss of image due to UP poll debacle.

 

The only big state where the Congress is in power is Andhra Pradesh where YSR (Y Rajshekhara Reddy) is no more and the party is more or less in suicidal mode. The Congress appears in sorry state in Rajsthan. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odhisa, Tamil Nadu have all gone to powerful regional kshatraps. The BJP rules in other states.

 

Some have credited Anna movement for high voting turnout in states, which went to the polls recently, UP and Goa in particular. Social networking sites appear to be building quite a silent campaign against the UPA in a big way. Team Anna has set an eye on the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. People open their newspapers most often in the morning everyday with an anticipation, that some new scams would have been reported. The perception of corruption at large has knocked off all the goodwills that Manmohan Singh enjoyed till three years ago.

 

But the question which is more pressing is that whether the principal Opposition BJP is ready to step into the shoes of the Congress and lead NDA back into power after 2004. The BJP chief Nitin Gadkari even after four years at the helm of affairs does not appear to understand North Indian politics, which explains his blunder in inducting Babu Singh Kushwaha in the party fold just on the eve of the UP elections. Anger of the people against the BJP was so much that the saffron party lost even Ayodhya seat to Samajwadi Party.

 

The BJP, however, has regional kshatraps of its own who can electorally deliver in the domain. Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Chhatisgarh's Raman Singh, Gujrat's Narendra Modi have the wherewithal to withstand anti-incumbency factor. But the void at the top level in the BJP is hard to fill in, with party patrirach L. K. Advani too old to lead the NDA in 2014. The BJP is also a party known for fratricidal war.

 

Therefore, India appears headed for 2014 Lok Sabha elections, with both the principal claimants to power not in strong health. The SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav believes that if his party could win 50 Lok Sabha seats in UP, he could stake claims for Prime Minister's post by bringing around all non-Congress and non-BJP parties. Numerically speaking such a scenario would still require outside support of either the Congress or the BJP, which in itself is a recipe for instability. Lots of churning out will take place in the run up to 2014, which may hold the key to the way the politics of the nation may be headed.  

UP's giant killer

This profile of UP CM designate Akhilesh Yadav appeared in Financial Chronicle with the following web link http://e.mydigitalfc.com/PUBLICATIONS/DCF/DCF/2012/03/10/INDEX.SHTML

MANISH ANAND

THE ASIAN AGE

A DAY after the humiliating loss of his wife Dimple Yadav at the hands of friend-turned-foe Raj Babbar in the Firozabad Lok Sabha by-elections, Akhilesh Yadav had set out to write the script for 2012 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. Egged on by the media whether he was ready for a faceoff with Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi, the young Yadav, who is nicknamed Tipu, told reporters that he would accept the challenge. Now that the Uttar Pradesh verdict is out, Akhilesh has clearly accounted for the loss of prestige with the defeat of his wife in November 2009.

A day before the fate of his wife's political debut was known, he had said that Babbar had used “extensive money power“ to defeat his party. Akhilesh also never forgot to remind all, that Uttar Pradesh had seen a huge rise in the number of berozgar baap (unemployed fathers).

Tipu included an unemployment allowance of Rs 1,000 per month in the party manifesto. This turned out to be one act of smart thinking of a leader who had his ears to the ground, as hundreds of youths started thronging the state government's employment exchanges in anticipation of getting the benefit.

Son of a wrestler-turned-politician father, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh knew the youth, who held the key to success in the elections, wanted development. So, he was also instrumental in giving a modern look to the party, which promised tablets to students after passing the XIIth examination and modern education.

Akhilesh, born on July 1, 1973, was drafted into politics by Mulayam in 2000 when he was fielded to contest the Kannauj Lok Sabha by-election, after his father vacated the constituency.

He still represents the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat in parliament.

Before plunging into politics, Akhilesh had completed a master's degree in environmental engineering from Sydney University and had earned a Bachelor's degree in engineering from Sri Jayachamarajendra College in Mysore.

Although fluent in English, Akhilesh is seen answering questions in Hindi mostly, due to his keenness to connect with the youth of his state. After talking to him, one cannot but be impressed with his humility and modesty. This was evident in the course of campaigning for the Uttar Pradesh elections, because he always replied in mild ways to questions on personal attacks by his rivals. The people in the state see in him “one of their own“. The Uttar Pradesh mandate is clear on one thing, that Akhilesh is the youth icon of the state.

Akhilesh is blessed with steely resolve. Knowing that BSP chief Mayawati had ousted his father from the seat of power, Akhilesh cleverly worked to get the party rid of the perception of being one of the goons. Even when a close aide of Mulayam and party's Muslim face Azam Khan wanted to draft “mafia“ don DP Yadav into the party on poll eve, Akhilesh said a clear no. Tipu, with his young team of technocrats and management gurus, gave Mulayam a victory that he had never tasted in his career. Thus, party workers have reasons for rooting for this young Yadav to be the next chief minister of the state.

UP goes Bihar ways

People in Uttar Pradesh never missed a point during the campaign trail, that the state has no leaders like Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. Though lacking in leadership, UP still went on the lines of Bihar, which had trouched caste politics about seven years ago. There is a change in UP now but it will take time to know if the change puts the state on the path of development oriented politics or not.

UP has clearly become a turf of regional parties. This is bad news for national political parties. The state appears on the course to unveil a revolving door politics on the lines of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav is in the winter of his health. Therefore, Akhilesh Yadav could become the chief minister at the earliest. In such a scenario, Akhilesh will have an opportunity to do a Nitish in Bihar. Even people in West Bengal rue the fact that though they elected Mamata Banerjee to get rid of the Left rule, they still do not have leadership to take pride in.

The Congress needs to get rid of the coterie of sycophants surrounding party scion Rahul Gandhi if it at all wants redemption at the earliest. Politics has no place for an angry young man. Though this was known to all on the street, the coterie of sycophants kept egging on the Congress scion to indulge in theatrics. The party needs to know sooner than latter that the people are not that fool, that they could be lured by acts of theatrics. 

The BSP chief Mayawati is not wrong in suggesting that the Congress gave the plot to the SP to win the elections by propping up the issue of reservation for Muslims. The issue hogged the limelight throughout the campaigning. However, the SP outsmarted the Congress in appealing to be more sincere to the cause of the Muslims.

Mayawati's image of an arrogant and megalomaniac clearly paved the way for the SP to ride on a massive anti-incumbency wave. The UP mandate is more against Mayawati than for Mulayam. Poeple appear to have no better choice but to vote in the SP into power. However, democracy still has space for leaders like Mayawati, Jayalalitha and Mamata, who centralise power and fuel perception of them being dictatorial. Though people always have the last laugh, they still vote in such leaders and therefore it may not be an end of the road for Mayawati too.

The BJP appears to be a ship adrift in the high sea. A host of top leadership were busy in ensuring that the party candidates were defeated. BJP's chief Nitin Gadkari's gamble of hoisting Uma Bharati upset them, while his ploy to piggyback ride on BSP discards (Babu Singh Kushwaha and Badshah Singh) clearly went against the sentiment of the people in the state.

However, the Congress and BJP have one glimmer of hope, that the Parliamentary and state polls may be delinked. People appear to have voted in the SP, as no other party was seen defeating Mayawati. But people will have to choose in between the Congress and BJP in 2014. Thus, the state of politics in UP is clearly in flux and the national political parties would better be advised to effect course correction to stay relevant in the state which elect 80 Lok Sabha members.       

Syrian angst

Voice of sanity appears to be struggling for audience in Syria. The Arab spring has clearly left deathly trails in this Middle-East country so much so that a civil war may not be ruled out. The world community is rightly shocked to see the extent of humanitarian crisis in Syria.

Though the Arab Spring accounted for a near peaceful end to totalitarian rules in Tunisia and Egypt, the massive loss of human lives in Libya should act as a caution for the western world and Arab League apparently seeking a swift regime change in Syria. Regime change through external intervention is clearly not in sync with the spirit of Arab Spring.

Even as leaders of a host of nations gather in Tunisia to find a way out to curb the violence in Syria, their immediate challenge should be win a ceasefire. This should be uppermost in the agenda of the leaders, as reports coming out from Syria clearly tell a sickening tale.

Worse is unabated loss of lives of journalists in Syria, with the popular saying, that you should not shoot the messenger, clearly having no takers. One must commend the valour of journalists who have sneaked into Syria to inform the world of the scale of humanitarian crisis unfolding there. Amidst strict clampdown against foreign journalists, reporters are staking their lives to sneak into Syria from Lebanan and Turkey through local contacts.

The opposition Local Coordination Committees of Syria has pegged death toll in Syria at about 9,000 so far. Reports suggest that the besieged city of Homs is witnessing unprecedented violence. The UN officials have, however, said that they are not in a position to update death tolls in Syria. Besides, residents in Homs are stated to be without critical supplies for weeks and are unable to move to other city. It’s said that the Syrian army is shelling the city of Homs and people are starving as well.

Therefore, the International Committee of the Red Cross has rightly sought from authorities and rebels to agree for daily ceasefires so that life-saving aid can reach civilians in hard-hit areas, including Homs. "It should last at least two hours every day, so that ICRC staff and Syrian Arab Red Crescent volunteers have enough time to deliver aid and evacuate the wounded and the sick," quote unquote ICRC President Jakob Kellenberger.

Even as the Arab League wants the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to quit his position, there appears no consensus till date among the western powers on the way ahead. While Morocco wants the rebels in Syria to be armed, which the US has not ruled out as an option, France has called for a NATO led air cover to reach out the humanitarian assistance. The Arab League has already imposed economic sanctions against Syria. However, China and Russia vetoed United Nations resolutions two times which were aimed to end violence in Syria. India has also expressed reservations, while citing example of Libya, that the UN principle of responsibility to protect is being selectively used to promote national interests and bring about regime change in the conflict countries instead of saving civilians.

The US is least likely to get militarily engaged in Syria in an election year, as its extended stay in Iraq had been openly questioned by the people. Iran, which is a firm ally of Assad, has apparently sent two warships in the backyard of Syria in a bid to provide training for Syrian naval forces. Experts assess that Iranian involvement in Syrian crisis could drag in other unwilling nations to back the rebels.

Besides, Russia and China back Assad's own program for reforms, which include plans for a referendum on a new constitution and elections. While Assad says that this should satisfy demands for more democracy, his opponents say the proposals are a sham. Assad’s assertions that the 11-month-old uprising against his rule is limited to the provinces are also not seen credible, as violence is reportedly taking place right in the Syrian capital of Damascus.

It’s worth mentioning that much of the opposition to Assad comes from the Sunni majority, while his support comes from minorities, including his Alawite sect. There is enough credence to the concerns of the neighbouring countries that violence could take on a sectarian slant.

Therefore, the western world and the Arab League need to practice the utmost caution and find a way out for peaceful negotiations for political resolution. The UN chief Ban Ki-moon has rightly said that he was searching for a candidate to name as a humanitarian coordinator for Syria, whose role could evolve into seeking a political solution to the conflict. There should be no second opinion, that the humanitarian support should be first reached out to the people and for that a ceasefire is a must.