Friday, June 26, 2015

PM Nitish in 2019?

Democracy is full of second chance. 

It all began from the iconic Gandhi Maidan in Patna in October, 2013 where substantial part of the script for 2014 battle was written. In another three months, much of the script for the 2019, still four years away, will be written in Bihar. The outcome of Bihar polls due in October this year will by all accounts set course for a political process with all eyes on the month of May four years later.

Bihar will test the 32 and 68 per cent electoral debate. That Narendra Modi commanded a mere 32 per cent of the vote share in the 2014 polls offered a cocoon of political comfort to his political rivals. The natural consequence was to offer a united political alternative to the 68 per cent Modi naysayers. 

The looming electoral challenge in Bihar made the warring "socialist" satraps to bury their hatchets. They came to believe that if they did not unite they risk being annihilated sooner. The likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar, Ajit Singh and Om Prakash Choutala had seen their political herds quite overwhelmingly demolished by Modi in 2014. They came to believe that the herds were broken because they were fragmented.

The political balloon of Janata Parivar taking a shape is contingent on the outcomes of Bihar polls. If its proponents succeed in Bihar in stopping Modi, it will take wings to fly on the national horizon. If it fails, it will not wither away but jolt the skeptics in the ranks to push their personal ego little back in their calculations. And efforts with full hearts unlike currently when they have pushed Nitish to fight a lonely battle against Modi will be made.

History is not on the side of Modi, for no reformist government has ever been re-elected in the country. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had the candour to advance the elections on the back of eight plus growth rate, yet Congress humbled him. India's economic reform template historically has left millions of poor in the country out of place in the shining moon. That the Maoists registered exponential growth during the times of PV Narsimha Rao and Vajpayee has well been statistically documented to warrant any further repetition.

The anti-Modi political space is currently rudderless and leaderless. They can not tolerate the idea of some one from their ranks emerging their leader. That has been the story so far, but the future is not necessarily hostage to history. And the time is ripe for one of them to sparkle the national political space. 

Among plethora of regional satraps, only Nitish and Akhilesh Yadav stand any chance to play a larger political role at the national level. Akhilesh is still a student of politics and learning the tricks of governance with much strain. But he's just about 40 years of age and has quite a long rope to swing in Indian politics. His father -- Mulayam Singh Yadav -- is in the winter of his career. In the immediate future, Akhilesh may have to cope with a lot of fratricidal war within the extended Mulayam clan to consolidate his political clout.

Nitish has been a turnaround chief minister of Bihar for a decade. His rivals have quite good reasons to call him a political opportunist, for he sheltered in the bosom of one whom he ridiculed during most part of his days in power. Yet, politics is not an abode of permanent friends and enemies; all are circumstantial. Regional satraps know in their hearts that Nitish only has stature among them to challenge the Modi hegemony.   

If he wins Bihar elections, Nitish will emerge a counterfoil of Modi immediately. If he goes down fighting, Nitish will still be in the reckoning. Bihar will have another chance to leave its mark on national political discourse and, hence, the October polls have significance much larger to its local issues. 

                                                               *****

READ MORE on possible political script of India after the Bihar elections in the Book:

Buy at myBook.to/Indianpolitics in paperback & kindle

Sunday, June 21, 2015

Breaking stereotypes

A year has passed by since Narendra Modi commanded historic majority to come to power in New Delhi. In the year gone, he took ‘baby steps’ to translate his dreams and promises to people to transform India – socially and economically.  

His economic template is no more different than what Manmohan Singh and his man – P Chidambaram – had pursued. In two full Budgets that his government has presented so far, Modi has not yet unveiled a single step, which could bring in fundamental change to the fate of the country. At best he has been an undisputed king of marketing and sales to re-package schemes and policies pursued by his immediate predecessor to give them the energy and direction which they had lacked.

The book is titled – The enabler Narendra Modi. The reason for such a title is that Modi has given sufficient hints in his one year in office that he is no admirer of India being a welfare state. He has sought to nudge India onto an enabling path. For decades, India stood firm as a welfare state and billions of dollars were poured in hundred of welfare schemes. 

But India’s welfare template suffered from innumerable holes, which defeated the very idea of such schemes, as a class pocketed the wealth meant for the poor of the country. Modi believes as seen in his actions that people need to stand on their feet and they should be provided with enabling platform to transform their lives socially and economically.

Available at Amazaon.in


In the chapter, Herd Breaker, this book reminds the ruling party led by Modi of reasons why the people broke free of several political stereotypes to give a mandate not seen for two and a half decades. Millions of people living on the margins defied the caste identities to back the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Such people are dreamy and have a habit not to give long rope to the ruling party to fulfill the promises. Modi has unveiled a few of the steps to address to the aspiration of such people, but they seem too futuristic to give immediate tangible benefits to his admirers on the ground.

This book also has a chapter, New Delhi Caucus, wherein Modi’s most difficult challenge is listed and detailed. India is a vast country but irony of the country has been the clout of the ‘New Delhi Caucus’ consisting of bureaucrats, political class, middle men, civil society and judicial activists, which has subverted dreams of teeming millions. Modi has steadfastly gone after the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) since assuming office and has also sought to correct the ways the judiciary functions in the country. But he has not weeded out the ‘New Delhi Caucus’ completely, which risks his government becoming no different than his predecessors. 

Political opponents of Modi privately admit that he is perched as emperor of Indian democracy. They argue that by all accounts, Modi has surpassed the stature of Indira Gandhi of 1971 when she was India's most powerful leader and had unveiled a single party rule in the country. Modi's position is both ominous and providential. His position could be ominous, because he may throttle dissent and cause serious damage to Indian democracy. At the same time it could also be providential, because he can guide India onto a new path and liberate shackled potential of the country.

Politically speaking Modi is India's first non-Congress Prime Minister. It may sound odd, because there were seven Prime Ministers, who headed non-Congress governments. Even Atal Bihari Vajpayee of BJP was Prime Minister for about six years. Yet, Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister in the true sense.

It must be noted that Congress in India is not just a political party, but a political culture. And that culture was seeded deep into Indian democracy by Indira Gandhi. Her stature was such in her prime time that she ensured Constitution Amendment (42nd) to give India the character of a welfare state. All her successors bore her imprints in their statecraft afterwards.

Even while PV Narsimha Rao ably assisted by his Finance Minister Manmohan Singh sought to force open the window to the world, which was further carried forward by Vajpayee, they could not lay their hands on a formidable electoral template. Both were consequently rejected by the people. They suffered from economic contradictions. They wanted to write new chapters in Indian economy and polity yet could not shun ideological imprints of Indira Gandhi fully.  

Rao was a Congress man, but had vision to think beyond the Nehru-Gandhi bank of party ideas. Vajpayee was an RSS man, but had co-opted socialists, who were non-Congressmen for just namesake. Vajpayee was a minister in the Morarji Desai Cabinet. The old man was a hardcore Congress man and rival of Indira Gandhi in her early political days. Vajpayee propped up VP Singh as Prime Minister also with the support of the Left parties. VP Singh had spent his life in Congress and had quit the party to head Janata Dal, which was essentially a loose confederation of provincial caste chieftains. Vajpayee in his thoughts was centrist, with little leaning to the right. 

It's pertinent to examine why Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister in the true sense. And for that matter it will equally be important to understand what Congress means as a political culture. Congress essentially is a political culture wherein the power of decision making is centralized. Popularly it is called a 'High Command' culture. This bears strong imprints in the statecraft. Even though India is a Union of states, with much thrust on federalism, Indian statecraft essentially is of centralized planning and decision making. The Centre decides what the states should do. The Centre decides how much money states should spend and under what heads. The Centre decides what laws states should have. 

The easiest illustration of this is in Indian Parliament enacting a law on acquisition of land in 2013, which was actually a political legislation thrust upon the government due to Rahul Gandhi's obsession to do politics of land. Land is a state subject, and all state governments have their own respective policies or laws on acquisition of land. Then what was the need for the Centre to enact a law on land and whose amendments Modi is desperately seeking? Modi believes it has forced a lock-down on development. 

If not for Rahul Gandhi ambushing Bhatta-Parsaul to throw his weight behind relatively rich farmers of western Uttar Pradesh, India may have continued with the British time law on acquisition of land. The basic idea is that the Centre essentially lacks trust in state governments to be fair in dealing with its people. And that must sound ludicrous, because the state governments have more connect with the people than the Centre. 

Modi is the first non-Congress Prime Minister, because he has not been touched by the ideology and culture of the grand old party. He was chief minister of Gujarat for about 12 years with strong majority in the state Assembly and he never needed to bend even little to allow Congress to cast its imprints on him.

This culture essentially is distribution of wealth, centralization of decision making, and sycophancy. Through the welfare core of the statecraft, Congress envisaged distribution of wealth among the poor directly. This subsequently birthed politics of poverty. This book has a chapter on ‘Politics of poverty’ wherein it has been socially, economically and politically mapped for its extent of distortions. This had the collateral damage to Indian ethos in the form of rampant corruption, which spread its tentacles in all walks of lives. 

The mode to distribute wealth to the poor fell prey to the cunning crop of teeming millions who had connections everywhere to pocket at least half the money transferred by the Centre. They infected the political class, judiciary, police, and civil society with their vice. And they gave birth to a corrupt society.

Vajpayee should not be counted among the non-Congress Prime Ministers purely for the reasons because he was clueless to clamp down on corruption and the Congress' statecraft on centralization of decision making exercise. Other six Prime Ministers -- Desai, Charan Singh, VP Singh, Chandrashekhar, HDS Deve Gowda, and IK Gujral -- were either from the Congress having crossed over to other parties in search for greener pastures or were propped up to the post as part of the trick game of the grand old party, which included Choudhary Charan Singh and Chandrashekhar. 

In the chapter, Modi’s 3B, this book graphically captures Prime Minister’s ‘Bold, Brazen, and Bulldozer’ aspect of administration. Modi in a few months after his inauguration shut down the Planning Commission, which by default had subverted the idea of India being a federal democracy. All chief ministers as a matter of routine would line up each year to get their annual plans approved by the Planning Commission. Modi has in place inaugurated NITI Aayog wherein the chief ministers head sub-groups on various subjects.

But most importantly Modi assured from the ramparts of the Red Fort, that he would 'neither take bribe nor allow others to do the same (naa khaaoonga, naa khane doonga)'. No Prime Minister before him acknowledged the cancer of corruption and owned up responsibility to crush it down. A year has passed by since the inauguration of Modi and the economy has resumed its journey on the upward trajectory, but the real-estate prices in Delhi and satellite towns around have slumped by at least 20 per cent. The real-estate in Delhi zone thrived because the black money was in ample supply. The tap appears to have been turned off and there is tangible effect on the grounds. 

Rao and Vajpayee surely put India on high economic growth path. But their times also saw India coming under the firm grip of Maoists. The Red Corridor dotted India right from the border with Nepal to deep forests of Chhatisgarh. The Government of India officially admits 80 districts in the country being in strong grip of Maoists. The Left Wing Extremism spread its influence among poor tribal and Dalit. They gained followers and sympathizers, because poor stayed on margins of the society and the economic growth, which surpassed nine per cent mark in Vajpayee's time, had no effect on their lives. They could not access those benefits on which the Central government spent billions of dollars each year.

In Modi, they sensed a rare opportunity to make an electoral choice to break free from shackles of self-limiting social and economic conditions. Modi is now an emperor of Indian democracy, because he broke the caste and community herds, who by habit and conditioning participated in elections in stereotyped manners. Modi broke many stereotypes and he has to consolidate and further cement his political path.

There is a clear merit in Modi being compared with Indira Gandhi. They share similar political clouts, but differ significantly in their socio-economic outlooks. In the chapter, ‘Politics of poverty’, this book has sought to put the statecraft of Indira Gandhi and her successors in perspective.

... (Read more in the book The enabler Narendra Modi)

Saturday, June 06, 2015

Silence of secrets

MANY SECRETS LIE BURIED IN THE WOMB OF SILENCE. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Finance Minister Arun Jaitely, Rajsthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia and India's most known son-in-law Robert Vadra are parts of one such mysterious web of silence. 

For details read TURNING OF THE WHEEL chapter in the Book: The Enabler Narendra Modi, which can be bought at http://amzn.to/1CR528s


Despite losing elections and having been instrumental in BJP's humiliating loss at the hands of the maverick activist turned politician, who is also a brutal exponent of the art of politics of muck, Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, Jaitely stays the most powerful minister in the Modi Cabinet. That Jaitely is the most pedestrian minister ever to head the Ministry of Finance is not a fact unknown to Modi. Yet, Jaitely's comfort is not an ounce less.

http://amzn.to/1CR528s
Vasundhara Raje Scindia is a mass leader who delivered the most humiliating loss to Congress in Rajsthan. She has paced ahead of her own government at the Centre in unveiling reforms. But she is least heard at the national level. Not by default but it appears that by design she keeps distance from Modi and his government at the Centre. Modi is more than eager to para-drop at any place to associate himself with any landmark developmental works. Yet, Scindia chose to inaugurate the Jaipur Metro herself and did not share the honours with any Central BJP leaders. 

That she is miffed with Modi for non-inclusion of her son Dushyant Singh in the Modi Cabinet is an old tale. She had fought the Assembly elections in the state about six months before Modi got his landmark mandate on an issue, which is now buried in the womb of silence. And that was the alleged unscrupulous land deals involving Robert Vadra. Unlike Manohar Lal Khattar, who was hand-picked by Modi as chief minister of Haryana, 

Scindia is a popular state leader and no taint has yet touched her. She is not yet in the leagues of Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who had to complain to Sonia Gandhi against spirited Congress campaign over Vyapam scam in the state. Chattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh's name keeps being tossed in media reports over allegations of favouritism. Scindia has stayed away from such accusations and has a stature of her own in the state and the party.  

Robert Vadra's name was on the lips of Modi at each of the public rally he addressed in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But "Damad ji" is not troubled a bit despite BJP forming government at the Centre a year ago and in Rajsthan one and a half years ago. BJP came to power in Haryana about six months ago. 

Senior Congress leaders who are not the camp followers of Rahul Gandhi claim to have some insight over the mystery. The book -- The enabler Narendra Modi -- has examined the mysterious silence at length. 

(Note: This post was written before the controversy surrounding Lalit Modi unfolded and has become all the more relevant now.)

Print edition at http://www.amazon.co.uk/enabler-Narendra-Modi-Breaking-stereotypes/dp/1514145766